FB: Liberty League

[labart96]

Unless the Sox are able to come up with some clutch hits (especially against Betancourt) they are done regardless.

Since 1995, teams with pitchers going on three days rest in the playoffs are a combined 39-54. That's the bottom line, and when it comes to crunching numbers, Theo Epstein and Bill James's Red Sox are all about the mathematics.  Beck pitching Game 5 is the way to go.

Last night's game was the like Sox of old.  4 DPs in the first 6 innings, Ortiz getthing struck by a Manny hit for an out?  WTF?  Eventhough old Wake doesn't inspire much confidence (especially considering the Sox rarely give the old knuckler any run support), he is at least good for hanging around until the 7th inning giving our pen a little break (and sparing Sox fans from having to see either Lopez, Gagne or Lester).

[dewcrew88]

pbr see's your point tdt but pbr see's it as if you pitch beckett in game 4 the bosox should win. now the series is 2-2 and a 3 games series which you have beckett available for game 7. if you pitch wakefield in game 4 chances are the tribe are going to batter him now your down 3-1 and have to win 3 in a row and pbr just doesnt see the bosox winning 3 in a row. pbr is probably playing the odds here w/ series at 2-2 vs. 3-1 but you guys do know your team much better than pbr just didnt quite seem to make sense

Nobody is going to batter Wake tonight.  I think he flirts with a shutout tonight.

I hope you are right, LD11...

[labart96]

On a completely different note, here's TGP SLU-Bart preview:

The St. Lawrence University Saints (2-3, 1-2) have lost 15 straight to Hobart dating back to TGP's freshman fall of 1992 (yet another depressing reminder that TGP's college days are well behind him).  SLU has had two weeks to prepare for Hobart - their last game was a 28-10 defeat to nationally ranked (#23) RPI (5-0, 3-0) back on October 6.  The Larries gave RPI a good run for their money, holding a 10-7 lead over the Engineers until about 10 minutes to go in the fourth quarter.  An interception thrown by SLU QB Brad Heil was returned 48 yds to the SLU 2 yard line, setting up RPI for the go ahead TD.  Following a 3 and out on their next series, SLU never recovered and RPI put the game away.

St. Lawrence Coach (and former Hobart Offensive Coordinator) Chris Phelps returns to Geneva still looking for his first win over his former employer and mentor, Coach Cragg.  The Larries will have their hands full with a Hobart offense that is averaging 38 points and over 450 yards a game.  Still, SLU has been able to move the ball on most of their opponents (they average about 325 yds/game in total offense).  SLU's losing record reflects their trouble finishing games.  SLU plays teams tough in the first, but then seem to run out of gas in the second half.  On telling stat is SLU has been outscored 66-23 in the 4th QTR so far this season.

Hobart did a nice job last weekend in causing four Mariner turnovers and will look to do the same against the Larries.  TGP expects SLU to be fired up and well prepared to play leading to a close half-time score.  Turnovers (SLU has thrown 9 interceptions this season) will come back to haunt the Larries in the second half and Hobart should have the game in hand in the late third quarter.

TGP's classmate Garry will be in attendance at the SLU-Bart game this weekend.  Garry will be travelling up to Geneva with his dad (Garry, Sr, Hobart Class of '58).  Garry Sr and his teammates from the undefeated (6-0) 1957 Hobart Football team will be recognized during half-time.  In case you were wondering, the '57 Hobart Football team defeated St. Lawrence 40-7.  TGP is looking forward to getting a recap from Garry on the game and the weekend.

TGP's Prediction:

Hobart 35 - SLU 14

[PBR...]

Unless the Sox are able to come up with some clutch hits (especially against Betancourt) they are done regardless.

Since 1995, teams with pitchers going on three days rest in the playoffs are a combined 39-54. That's the bottom line, and when it comes to crunching numbers, Theo Epstein and Bill James's Red Sox are all about the mathematics.  Beck pitching Game 5 is the way to go.

Last night's game was the like Sox of old.  4 DPs in the first 6 innings, Ortiz getthing struck by a Manny hit for an out?  WTF?  Eventhough old Wake doesn't inspire much confidence (especially considering the Sox rarely give the old knuckler any run support), he is at least good for hanging around until the 7th inning giving our pen a little break (and sparing Sox fans from having to see either Lopez, Gagne or Lester).

agreed tgp but beck's is the exception to the rule as you saw him pitch w/ the marlins on no rest and how good he was...

[dewcrew88]

Unless the Sox are able to come up with some clutch hits (especially against Betancourt) they are done regardless.

Since 1995, teams with pitchers going on three days rest in the playoffs are a combined 39-54. That's the bottom line, and when it comes to crunching numbers, Theo Epstein and Bill James's Red Sox are all about the mathematics.  Beck pitching Game 5 is the way to go.

Last night's game was the like Sox of old.  4 DPs in the first 6 innings, Ortiz getthing struck by a Manny hit for an out?  WTF?  Eventhough old Wake doesn't inspire much confidence (especially considering the Sox rarely give the old knuckler any run support), he is at least good for hanging around until the 7th inning giving our pen a little break (and sparing Sox fans from having to see either Lopez, Gagne or Lester).

agreed tgp but beck's is the exception to the rule as you saw him pitch w/ the marlins on no rest and how good he was...

That was one game. Methinks if they brought Beckett back now, he wouldn't be as dominate.
Wake has been through the thick and thin of being a Red Sox. Hopefully he can be good tonight.

[labart96]

definitely (eric wilbur makes an interesting/compelling argument for using Beck tonight) on boston.com:

http://www.boston.com/sports/nesn/wilbur/sports_blog/blog/2007/10/16/three_days_grace/

[lewdogg11]

I am of firm belief that Wakefield deserves to get the start tonight.  He has been a tropper and very loyal to the Sox.  If they weren't going to start him tonight all along, he should have come out of the bullpen in game 2 and even game 3.  Regardless of the outcome, he has earned the shot to start tonight.

[union89]

Unless the Sox are able to come up with some clutch hits (especially against Betancourt) they are done regardless.

Since 1995, teams with pitchers going on three days rest in the playoffs are a combined 39-54. That's the bottom line, and when it comes to crunching numbers, Theo Epstein and Bill James's Red Sox are all about the mathematics.  Beck pitching Game 5 is the way to go.

Last night's game was the like Sox of old.  4 DPs in the first 6 innings, Ortiz getthing struck by a Manny hit for an out?  WTF?  Eventhough old Wake doesn't inspire much confidence (especially considering the Sox rarely give the old knuckler any run support), he is at least good for hanging around until the 7th inning giving our pen a little break (and sparing Sox fans from having to see either Lopez, Gagne or Lester).

True with the 3 days rest stat, but while with the Marlins, Beckett threw a gem against the Yanks in the Series on 3 days......big decision to make for Tito.

[lewdogg11]

Hey U89, what did you quit on your LLPPFFL team?

[Frank Rossi]

? for bosox fans....what is francona thinking...if he starts beckett next game he can still bring him back on short rest for game 7 if the sox are going to win this thing it will most likely go 7 games. by starting wakefield you only have beckett for 1 more game...is pbr missing something here? wakefield and his knuckleball can pitch on 2 days rest so leave him for the game after and you can still bring him back for long relief if needed later. seems crazy to pbr to not pitch beckett in the next game.

You'd only get five good innings out of Beckett on short rest.  My guess is that Francona looked at Wakefield's record against the Cleveland bats and realized that he might have a good chance against them.  If that's true, then I don't fault this move.  The real problem is that Dice-K is showing the problem with Asian-system baseball players (Weng showed the same problem for the Yankees): the short season over there does not prep pitchers for the 162-game-plus-playoffs season.  He had the luxury of resting Okajima at the end of the regular season, and he's performed well.  He didn't have the same luxury with Dice-K, and now he's really in trouble in terms of starting pitching.  Even Schilling is taking a shelling routinely right now.

(Edit:  MLB.com is showing Wakefield as 17-12 lifetime vs. Cleveland with no 2007 starts.  He had 31 appearances and a 4.76 ERA in that span in his 189 innings (averaged 6.0 innings per appearance).  Interestingly, he gave up 22 HRs to Cleveland in those 31 appearances while striking out 110 and walking 64.)

(Double Edit:  He only pitched once against Cleveland last season, giving up five runs on five hits (one homer), walking four and striking out just three.  However, Cleveland mustered just a .227 BA against him in that game.)

[labart96]

(Edit:  MLB.com is showing Wakefield as 17-12 lifetime vs. Cleveland with no 2007 starts.  He had 31 appearances and a 4.76 ERA in that span in his 189 innings (averaged 6.0 innings per appearance).  Interestingly, he gave up 22 HRs to Cleveland in those 31 appearances while striking out 110 and walking 64.)

Interesting, but not sure how relevant those stats are given that Wake has been in the league for almost 20 years.  Still, he is battle tested and assuming his stint off during the ALDS helped him recover from his sore back, he should be able to give the Sox a good outing.  The pressure in my opinion is on the Sox offense.  They need to wake up and hit the ball like they did in Game 1.

[union89]

Hey U89, what did you quit on your LLPPFFL team?

Not at all....all of my guys are hurt.  Isaac Bruce, Andre Johnson and Terry Glenn have been f'ing me.  I'm stubborn, at this point I will not drop Glenn for a shmoe like Sinorice Moss....you caught me at the right time.....lucky bastard.

['gro]

Hey U89, what did you quit on your LLPPFFL team?

Not at all....all of my guys are hurt.  Isaac Bruce, Andre Johnson and Terry Glenn have been f'ing me.  I'm stubborn, at this point I will not drop Glenn for a shmoe like Sinorice Moss....you caught me at the right time.....lucky bastard.

I can see holding on to Andre 3000 Johnson (gro has him in $FFL) but Issac & Terry are a combined 178 years old.  How about picking up Niskayuna native Andre Davis of the texans?

['gro]

Another FF comment.  From the $FFL gro pulled off this trade: got TE Tony Gonzalez for WR Chris Chambers.  A lot of owners were upset, but here's how the rosters were pre-trade

Gro's WRs
Torry Holt
TJ Housh
Andre Johnson
Brandon Marshall
Chris Chambers

Other Dood's TEs and WRs
Ben Watson
Dallas Clark
Tony Gonzalez
Randy Moss
Santana Moss
Derrick Mason

Roster wise it made sense for both teams. No  reason to have 3 TE's and he needed another WR. ... but player wise Gro got the better deal.  Worst part is the other doods team is sick. Brady, Moss, LT, Ronnie Brown and all those TE's... and he has no clue about FF (he could have countered for a better WR, but didn't)!! He is tearing the league a new ( * )

[union89]

Hey U89, what did you quit on your LLPPFFL team?

Not at all....all of my guys are hurt.  Isaac Bruce, Andre Johnson and Terry Glenn have been f'ing me.  I'm stubborn, at this point I will not drop Glenn for a shmoe like Sinorice Moss....you caught me at the right time.....lucky bastard.

I can see holding on to Andre 3000 Johnson (gro has him in $FFL) but Issac & Terry are a combined 178 years old.  How about picking up Niskayuna native Andre Davis of the texans?

Left you guys a sweet little note in the SCFJFFL message board.....don't wake a sleeping giant, fools.