FB: Liberty League

[Knightstalker]

KS isn't so sure about football but when selecting the at large basketball teams they use the regional rankings to decide what teams to consider.  They then look at the top teams left in each region and use the regional criteria to award the bids.  If the top east region team is selected then the next highest east team not in the tournament gets compared to the other teams nationally using the regional criteria.

[redswarm81]

I took the liberty of ranking the East Region only based on the SOS figures, to the best that I could figure out, . . . 

I took a few liberties with Frank's data. . . . to compare teams with similar records. 

So, the chart below arranges the East Region teams by winning percentage, teams with identical winning percentages arranged by SoS

I arranged the teams by winning percentage in order to arrange . . . "similar won-lost records," which is what the Playoff Manual seems to suggest is appropriate for comparison . . . .

After watching this for the last 13 years, my view is . . . Plymouth State with one loss in region may very well have a much better SoS index than Cortland State with two losses.  OK, fine, so not only has the SoS failed Cortland, because most of us will argue that their SoS is far superior to that of Plymouth State,¹ but there is no fodder on the table to suggest that Cortland should leapfrog Plymouth State since Plymouth is already viewed statistically superior to Cortland based on regional W/L percentage. 

. . . you need to compare teams that might have one more loss than the teams you're concerned about since the Committee will not automatically throw out a, say, 6-2 team in the region because they have one more loss than a 7-1 team.

I think we agree.  The SoS/OWP index analysis is only applied to teams with similar won-loss records.  Arranging the list purely by SoS/OWP is largely irrelevant, so it's not really surprising that a list of teams arranged by SoS/OWP produces results that are, well, surprising.

When the list is arranged by winning percentage, it's easier to see which teams have similar won-loss records, and find the teams that might be subjected to SoS/OWP analysis.

¹ Your premise was that Plymouth State's SoS is higher than Cortland's but your conclusion was that "most of us will argue that [Cortland's] SoS is far superior to that of Plymouth State."  This is where we might disagree, but I suppose the explanation might be that you're U (sipping wine and eating cheese), and I'm RPI (drinking beer and driving the graphing calculator).  To me, SoS is just a number, and it's calculated by adding up the wins of a team's opponents, and dividing that number by the total games played by the team's opponents.  Any variation from that number--even one that "most of us will argue" is based on reputation and speculation, something that the AP warns its voters against (but to be fair, pg04 never warned his voters against).

[dewcrew88]

Screeners at airports not doing the job... Maybe TGP can clue us in.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2007-10-17-airport-security_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

[PBR...]

USF really didn't look like the #22 team tonight, let alone the #2 team.  I stand by my statements from earlier in the week about how USF at #2 was more a knee-jerk reaction to Boise State last year than based on anything realistic.

absolutely frank...ru should be ranked where they are somewhere between 25-40 and usf is probably at best 20-25 team. this is based on seeing several games by both teams this year. lsu/usc would hang 50 points on these teams if they played them.

[Jonny Utah]

USF really didn't look like the #22 team tonight, let alone the #2 team.  I stand by my statements from earlier in the week about how USF at #2 was more a knee-jerk reaction to Boise State last year than based on anything realistic.

Boise St still never had wins like (At Auburn and West Virginia), two top 10 if not top 5 teams.....

And was Boise St ever ranked that high?

['gro]

Just because USF lost doesn't mean they didn't deserve the #2 ranking.  They were 6-0 with a good resume.

[Frank Rossi]

Just because USF lost doesn't mean they didn't deserve the #2 ranking.  They were 6-0 with a good resume.

C'mon, 'gro.  You really couldn't have named TWO teams that were probably better than USF before last night?

[PBR...]

Just because USF lost doesn't mean they didn't deserve the #2 ranking.  They were 6-0 with a good resume.

me thinks gro needs to wake up....were u dropping car bombs last night? you cant possibly think that usf is the second best team in the country? ru is one dimensional w/ rice...teel is a very very avg qb. the only reason usf was there even w/ the resume was because of all the top teams knocking each other off...imho lsu/usc/florida beats usf or ru 9 out of 10 games and most likely hangs close to 50 points on them. talent wise they are still a ways behind the big boys they should be ranked in the 20s or getting some votes and consideration

['gro]

This debate is the whole problem with DI football... the polls mean too much. 

[PBR...]

correct gro....settle it on the field...plus polls should not come out to mid oct.

[Jonny Utah]

Just because USF lost doesn't mean they didn't deserve the #2 ranking.  They were 6-0 with a good resume.

me thinks gro needs to wake up....were u dropping car bombs last night? you cant possibly think that usf is the second best team in the country? ru is one dimensional w/ rice...teel is a very very avg qb. the only reason usf was there even w/ the resume was because of all the top teams knocking each other off...imho lsu/usc/florida beats usf or ru 9 out of 10 games and most likely hangs close to 50 points on them. talent wise they are still a ways behind the big boys they should be ranked in the 20s or getting some votes and consideration

Didnt USF beat Auburn at Auburn, while Auburn beat Florida at Florida?

Im saying the ranking was good and that they all even themselves out at the end......If USF never beat Auburn or WV, they would be ranked where Hawaii is right?

[PBR...]

well who exactly has wvu beaten this year...
Sep  1 - W vs. Western Mich, 62-24
Sep  8 - W at  Marshall, 48-23
Sep 13 - W at  Maryland, 31-14
Sep 22 - W vs. East Carolina, 48-7
Sep 28 - L at  So Florida, 13-21

Auburn...
Sep  1 - W vs. Kansas State, 23-13
Sep  8 - L vs. So Florida, 23-26 OT
Sep 15 - L vs. Miss State, 14-19
Sep 22 - W vs. New Mexico St, 55-20
Sep 29 - W at  Florida, 20-17
Oct  6 - W vs. Vanderbilt, 35-7
Oct 13 - W at  Arkansas, 9-7

other than florida and you can make a small case for arkansas but they are not very good this year who have these teams beaten? everyone is pumping up wvu and auburn but to me they are not that impressive. everyone is basing their ideas on previous years...yes  wvu has white/slaton but they havent done much yet this year

[Jonny Utah]

Well name one team thats beaten great teams, and hasn't lost to an bad or ok team? (USC, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas) 

Ohio St hasnt really beaten anyone.

[JT]

All JT knows is that when Rutgers took care of business last night was that JT is gonna get a fat payday for his West Virginia tickets.  Its Rowan's homecoming, so JT plans to be in the Boro.

[PBR...]

JU my point was several people stated what an impressive resume usf had beating auburn and wvu and my response was into there question. only florida is a decent team out of the teams played by auburn and wvu combined. hence my point that polls until at least mid oct are useless as some teams pack their schedules w/ cupcakes and look like world beaters but havent really beaten a good team yet. whereas other teams play tough ooc schedules and may not be nearly as bad as some think. and pbr agrees osu is not the true #1 school imho...they have played no one yet their schedule starts next week. to pbr lsu/usc/florida are the best teams out there right now