FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

FR is really relieved that RT passed up the opportunity to be a celebrity contestant on this season's "Dancing with the Stars" after his new-found D3Cast stardom.  Mainly, FR is happy because if this had happened to him, it would've left a large hole in the center of the pristine dance floor:

http://www.accesshollywood.com/news/ah7170.shtml

[PBR...]

PBR Before Nantucket



PBR After Nantucket

funny ish...hadnt seen the toilet seat "horseshoe" pic....

pbr's closet up on the island filled w/ reds...

[Knightstalker]

PBR Before Nantucket



PBR After Nantucket

A friend sent this link to KS, more pictures to go with the Toilet Seat Horse Shoes.

Redneck Page

[Knightstalker]

up at the family shack on nantucket... for a couple of days..coming back at the end of the week

KS oldest brother was stationed in Nantucket in the mid 70's while in the Coast Guard.  KS used to love going to visit KSB there.  Beach, going out on CG surf boats, helicopter ride one visit and friendly people.  Beautiful island, hope it is still clean and nice.

[Knightstalker]

Why doesn't KS ever see these girls on the subway?

Gratuitous video clip of the Day

More stupid redneck tricks

[Frank Rossi]

Let's Start with the Liberty League's playoff chances:

RPI (6-0, 4-0 LL)
-------------------
Pool A - RPI remains in control of its own destiny, and can lose to WPI this weekend without ceding control.  Since Rochester still only has one loss, RPI cannot lose to Rochester and remain in control of its own destiny for the LL Title.  A win by Rochester would require RPI to beat Union and hope that Hobart beats Rochester in the final week of the season.

Pool C - With only 35 teams in D-3, when the NESCAC and NEFC are excluded, for 31 playoff slots, an 8-1 RPI that does not win Pool A is almost a certainty for a Pool B slot this season.  The only downfall is RPI's SoS numbers, which place RPI in the 100s for SoS Index.  This will likely rise when RPI takes on Hobart and Union, making RPI a pretty sure 8-1 playoff bet.

ECACs - RPI has qualified for the ECACs, after attaining its fifth win.  The only way RPI would miss the ECACs, it would appear, is if RPI were to lose three games -- so one win should secure RPI an ECAC (see chart coming later of ECAC contenders).


Union (4-2, 4-0 LL)
---------------------
Pool A - Union remains in control of its own destiny, and can lose to St. Lawrence this weekend without ceding that control.  However, since Hobart still has only one loss in the LL, Union will not remain in control if it were to lose to Hobart in two weeks.  A loss to Hobart would require Union to win vs. RPI and hope for Rochester to beat Hobart in the final week of the season.

Pool C - Since the only way Union cannot win Pool A is with a loss, which would be its third loss, Union is not in the Pool C discussions at this time (6-3 would still not Pool C worthy).

ECACs - Union qualifies for the ECACs with one additional win, but, like in the Pool C scenario, the only way Union could get into the ECACs is by going 6-3 or 5-4.  At 6-3, Union would have only an outside chance at the ECACs, based on the NEFC's top teams currently (see chart later).


Hobart (5-2, 4-1 LL)
----------------------
Pool A - While Hobart is not in control of its own destiny, it must win its remaining two games to stay in the hunt.  A loss by Hobart to Union would eliminate Hobart from the LL Title hunt (based on tiebreakers at two losses).  A loss to Rochester and any win by RPI would similarly eliminate Hobart.  The only method by which Hobart can enter the playoffs through Pool A is by:  1) winning its remaining games; and 2) RPI losing any two games.  No matter what, Hobart cannot beat RPI if RPI goes 8-1 for the Pool A bid.

Pool C - Hobart is the only non-leader in the LL that is eligible for Pool C consideration.  We'll have a separate post that breaks down its chances, but mathematically, a lot will depend on the number of two-loss and three-loss teams that win their conferences, forcing the Committee to choose among the one-loss teams that become runners-up in their conferences.  The good news is that the OAC is looking like it will have only two bids this year (Mt. Union and one other).  More good news is that Rowan now has three losses.  The bad news is that two conferences already have two-loss teams guaranteed to win their Pool A bids, and Plymouth State MAY still be able to contend for a Pool C slot (this is highly debatable, but the possibility still exists).  More later, but Hobart MUST beat Alfred for these scenarios to play out at all.

ECACs - Hobart is eligible for the ECACs with its fifth win.  Should a two-loss Hobart not attain a Pool A or Pool C slot, Hobart would be a virtual lock for an ECAC game.  On the other hand, a three-loss Hobart team at 7-3 would stand a better chance than Union or RPI at 6-3 based on W/L percentage and SoS, but it would not be a guarantee.


Rochester (4-3, 3-1 LL)
--------------------------
Pool A - It ain't over just yet for da Jackets.  First, Rochester draws Susquehanna at home in an effort to move to 4-1 in the LL.  Then, the fun begins...RPI and Hobart.  The problem is Rochester's 13-7 loss to Union to open the LL season.  A three-way tie with Union and RPI is feasible at one loss.  However, Rochester cannot win in that tie (through the third tiebreaker loss to RPI).  Thus, Rochester needs the following to enter the playoffs:  1) win its remaining games; and 2) Union to lose twice.  This way, Rochester wins in a solo head-to-head tiebreaker vs. RPI or wins outright.  At two losses, Rochester would not be entirely eliminated, but it would require a lot of luck and losses in the right spots for all teams.

Pool C - At three losses, Rochester is out of Pool C consideration.

ECACs - Rochester is still one win shy of ECAC eligibility.  However, at three losses, Rochester would have an outside chance at the ECACs (see upcoming chart).


WPI (4-3, 1-3 LL)
-------------------
Pool A - Since Union and RPI have three games left, and since one of those games is head-to-head against each other, the worst finish the LL winner could have is two league losses.  Thus, WPI is eliminated from LL Title contention.

Pool C - With three losses, WPI is not in Pool C contention.

ECACs - WPI is one win shy of ECAC eligibility.  However, with three losses, WPI would only have an outside shot at an ECAC game, although it would potentially benefit from the tenth game at a 7-3 finish.


St. Lawrence (2-4, 1-3)
--------------------------
Pool A - Since Union and RPI have three games left, and since one of those games is head-to-head against each other, the worst finish the LL winner could have is two league losses.  Thus, St. Lawrence is eliminated from LL Title contention.

Pool C - With four losses, St. Lawrence is not in Pool C contention.

ECACs - St. Lawrence must win its remaining three games for ECAC eligibility.  However, it is currently unlikely that a four-loss St. Lawrence (5-4) would receive a slot (see upcoming chart).


Susquehanna (1-6, 0-4 LL) & Merchant Marine (0-8, 0-6 LL)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Both teams cannot qualify for any playoff game based on their inability to meet or transcend a .500 record this season.

[Frank Rossi]

ECAC Playoff Chances:

                   Conf.      Overall
Team        Conf W-L  Win %  W-L  Win % Notes
----------- ---- ---  -----  ---  ----- -----------------------------
Curry       NEFC 5-0  1.000  8-0  1.000 * - Leads in NEFC Boyd Div.
Alfred       E8  4-0  1.000  7-0  1.000 * - Leads in the E8
RPI          LL  4-0  1.000  6-0  1.000 * - Co-leads in the LL
SJF          E8  3-1  0.750  7-1  0.875 ** - Potential Pool C pick
Cortland    NJAC 5-0  1.000  6-1  0.857 * - Co-leads in the NJAC
USCGA       NEFC 5-0  1.000  6-1  0.857 * - Leads the NEFC Bogan Div.
Plymouth    NEFC 4-1  0.800  6-1  0.857
Hartwick     E8  2-1  0.667  5-2  0.714
Ithaca       E8  2-2  0.500  5-2  0.714
Hobart       LL  4-1  0.800  5-2  0.714 ** - Potential Pool C pick
Maine Mar.  NEFC 4-1  0.800  5-2  0.714
Nichols     NEFC 4-1  0.800  5-2  0.714
Union        LL  4-0  1.000  4-2  0.667 * - Co-leads in the LL
Husson      Ind. 0-0  0.000  5-3  0.625
Rochester    LL  3-1  0.750  4-3  0.571
WPI          LL  1-3  0.250  4-3  0.571
Bridgewater NEFC 3-2  0.600  4-3  0.571
Westfield   NEFC 3-2  0.600  4-3  0.571
Worcester   NEFC 3-2  0.600  4-4  0.500
Mass-Dart.  NEFC 3-2  0.600  4-4  0.500
Springfield  E8  1-2  0.333  3-4  0.429
WestConn    NJAC 1-3  0.250  3-4  0.429
Brockport   ACFC 1-2  0.333  3-4  0.429
St. Lawrence LL  1-3  0.250  2-4  0.333
Norwich      E8  0-3  0.000  2-5  0.286
Utica        E8  0-3  0.000  2-5  0.286
Buffalo     NJAC 1-4  0.200  2-5  0.286

I removed the word "State" in several instances for space purposes.  Only teams that can finish .500 or above are included, as teams at or above .500 are eligible for the ECAC Playoffs.  Reminder:  only teams that sign up for inclusion for ECAC consideration will be selected.  That will not occur for another couple weeks.

There are four contingencies currently: 

1) If Union wins the LL, then RPI could fall into an ECAC slot (but a second loss would be necessary for that).

2) An E8 team receiving a Pool C bid is not definite – I've chosen SJF as the current frontrunner for such a slot should it come to fruition.

3) Cortland could fall into an ECAC slot should it lose to CNJ and not receive a Pool C slot.

4) Hobart may not receive a Pool C bid at two losses, pushing it into the ECACs.

Therefore, we'll look at the TOP TEN teams, including those who are in the contingency discussions, that would currently receive ECAC bids (eliminating current outright conference leaders):

1) Either Curry or Coast Guard (Loser of the NEFC Title Game)
2) RPI
3) St. John Fisher
4) Cortland State
5) Plymouth State
6) Hartwick
7) Ithaca
8 ) Hobart
9) Maine Maritime
10) Nichols

Note that Union would have a third loss for it to be ECAC eligible, as at 7-2, Union would win its Pool A bid.

[Frank Rossi]

Pool C is on hold until we get the newest SoS figures...

[zachattack22]

Frank, thanks for all the time you put in to explain the pools. I get lost trying to figure it out sometimes.  Haven't been on here much this year, but have watched the video feed and listened to your broadcasts for most games thus far and you guys are doing a great job. It's nice to see Union finally start to show that defense matters as the last three years they've been so offensive and really lacked a consistently strong defense.

I've also been listening to RPI games. Couldn't believe the last minute win against Hobart at Hobart. What a crazy game that was to listen to.

I know there's still a lot of attention to RPI, Union and Hobart, but I still think WPI can be impressive when their offense is on and Rochester is a very tough bunch.  Should be an intersting next three or four weeks. The schedules get tougher now. Non league games like Hobart vs. Alfred have an impact because tough battles like that's going to be can either make Hobart a better team, or they could go into the end of the season banged up from a very physical game. So, these non-liberty league games can affect the liberty league in a different way.  Don't you remember when Union never had a week off and they would go into the tough part of their schedule right after playing University of Albany and College of New Jersey? Union was banged up big time by then. Let's hope the LL all stays healthy for a great end of the regular season.

[labart96]

Nice work as always Counselor.

These final weeks of the season are going to be great.  Just a few of the games TGP has circled on the calendar are:

Oct 27
Alfred at Hobart
Cortland at TCNJ
Dickinson at Muhlenberg

Nov 3
Hobart at Union
Alfred at Ithaca
Rowan at Cortland

Nov 10
Alfred at Fisher
Shoeapalozza '07
Cortaca
Williams at Amherst
Hobart at Rocho (100th meeting)

[PBR...]

tgp hope all is well w/ you out there...must seem like your living one GIHUGIC BBQ pit....the fires are just scary and sad to see out there. hope your well and stay safe! pbr talked to your coworker and he said wind gusts have been over 100mph at times like a heat furnace when the winds are that hot from the desert.

[labart96]

tgp hope all is well w/ you out there...must seem like your living one GIHUGIC BBQ pit....the fires are just scary and sad to see out there. hope your well and stay safe! pbr talked to your coworker and he said wind gusts have been over 100mph at times like a heat furnace when the winds are that hot from the desert.

Thx.  Never dull here in Socal.  The wife and TGP were in La Jolla over the weekend when we saw the video of the fires near Pepperdine.  Then we also heard of the fires out inland in San Diego.  After we checked out of our hotel we started to drive up to one of my buddies house (about 5 miles inland) and the smoke was everywhere - the friends we visited were evacuated yesterday.  They still have no idea on the status of their place, but they are all safe.

Fortunately all the LA fires are still pretty far from TGP's pumpkin patch.  We are getting lots of hot air and dust etc but seem safe for now.  Appreciate the checking in.  TGP really needs to move back east. 

[Touchdown Tommy]

Philly and DC have the Ugliest People...


Nice breakdown Tank, you do the LLPP a great service with this in-depth reporting.

[Frank Rossi]

In somewhat disappointing news, Tim Wakefield is being left off the Red Sox World Series roster due to a supposedly bum shoulder...

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playoffs2007/news/story?id=3075978

[Frank Rossi]

Here's a little nugget from eight years ago.  About halfway down the page, note the strength of schedule process...Seems familiar, no?  Methinks we went away from that process for a reason, and yet, we're back...

http://www.ncaa.org/releases/champselections/1999/1999111402sl.htm