FB: Liberty League

[stimulator]

Speaking of "options".  After watching the RPI/WPI game I give a lot of credit to the WPI squad.  They played very tough and ran their I option offense very effectively.  I have seen it over and over in FB.  An option team when running it well can be very effective even against a solid defense.  The QB was deliberate w/ riding the FB and making good decisions.

That being said I don't know what Rochester runs but one thing is certain... they do run it.  Their top back Bieliecki (sp?) was out and their other back goes for 200+.

Certainly will be a challenge for RPI this week.

[union89]

Michelle Tafoya is creepy!!!!!!!!!

[union89]

Anybody hear Jaworski....crazy running around play by Denver, Jaws says, "Looks like Trinity out there."  Good stuff

['gro]

Michelle Tafoya is creepy!!!!!!!!!

Should I put you down as a 'no'?

http://zachls.blogspot.com/2007/01/would-you-domichelle-tafoya.html

[union89]

Michelle Tafoya is creepy!!!!!!!!!

Should I put you down as a 'no'?

http://zachls.blogspot.com/2007/01/would-you-domichelle-tafoya.html

No....U89 would still 'do' her.....U89 is into 'creepy'

[union89]

U89 would like to meet the 3 clowns who said no to Suzy Kolber.....U89 is pretty sure Joe Willy is not one of those 3....

[Knightstalker]

KS wouldn't say no to Suzy Kolber, cute and knows her football, if she drinks ML, PBR or Yuengling and Jack on the rocks she is gold.

[PBR...]

a nice chill in the air the last couple of mornings and some heavy frost...it feels like football weather finally...now bring on some snow powder

[Frank Rossi]

U89 would like to meet the 3 clowns who said no to Suzy Kolber.....U89 is pretty sure Joe Willy is not one of those 3....

At least a few years ago, you'd be right...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqRTzj7Wy7c

[PBR...]

suzie went to a rival h.s. right near pbr....hmmm lots of stories (all good btw she is a cool cat)

[oxbacker]

side note:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xhku15VQLC8

Ox might have to start watching SNL again

[RJ]

This weekends match ups Rochester vs RPI and Hobart vs Union .. the league is still up for grabs  

      RPI         Wins   Losses   Win %
Sep. 8   1:00 PM   Endicott •   W, 34-10      2   6   250%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   Utica •   W, 24-0      2   6   250%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   at Hobart * •W, 35-31   6   2   750%
Sep. 29   1:00 PM   at SusquehannaW, 37-14   1   7   125%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   St. LawrenceW, 28-10   2   5   286%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   Merchant Marine * •   W, 41-3   0   8   0%
Oct. 27   2:00 PM   at Worcester P W, 21-14 2OT   4   4   500%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   Rochester * •               
Nov. 10   1:00 PM   at Union * •               
               17   38   309%
                     
      Hobart               
Sep. 8   1:00 PM   at Dickinson •L, 30-27 OT      6   2   750%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   Carnegie Mellon •W, 27-26      4   4   500%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   RPI * •   L, 35-31                                   7   0   1000%
Sep. 29   1:00 PM   at Worcester Poly W, 45-35      4   4   500%
Oct. 6   7:00 PM   at Susquehanna * •   W, 41-13      1   7   125%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   Merchant Marine * •   W, 55-9      0   8   0%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   St. Lawrence * •   W, 56-21      2   5   286%
Oct. 27   1:00 PM   Alfred •   W, 41-22                      7   1   875%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   at Union * •               
Nov. 10   12:00 PM   at Rochester * •               
                              31   31   500%
                     
      Rochester               
Sep. 1   12:00 PM   Carnegie Mellon •   L, 33-10      4   4   500%
Sep. 15   7:15 PM   at St. John Fisher •   L, 37-21      8   1   889%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   Union * •                   L, 13-7      6   2   750%
Sep. 29   2:00 PM   at St. Lawrence * •   W, 31-24      2   5   286%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   at Merchant Marine  W, 20-10      0   8   0%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   at Mount Ida •   W, 43-28      3   6   333%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   Worcester Polytech  W, 42-27      4   4   500%
Oct. 27   12:00 PM   Susquehanna * •   W, 38-20      1   7   125%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   at RPI * •               
Nov. 10   12:00 PM   Hobart * •               
                              28   37   431%
                     
                     
      Union               
Sep. 8   7:00 PM   Springfield •   L, 35-13      3   5   375%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   at Muhlenberg •   L, 34-0      8   0   1000%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   at Rochester * •   W, 13-7      5   3   625%
Sep. 29   2:00 PM   at Merchant Marine  W, 54-14      0   8   0%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   Worcester Polytech  W, 16-3      4   4   500%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   Susquehanna * •   W, 34-7      1   7   125%
Oct. 27   1:00 PM   at St. Lawrence * •   W, 20-9      2   5   286%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   Hobart * •               
Nov. 10   1:00 PM   RPI * •               
                     
                              23   32   418%

[Frank Rossi]

This weekends match ups Rochester vs RPI and Hobart vs Union .. the league is still up for grabs  

      RPI         Wins   Losses   Win %
Sep. 8   1:00 PM   Endicott •   W, 34-10      2   6   250%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   Utica •   W, 24-0      2   6   250%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   at Hobart * •W, 35-31   6   2   750%
Sep. 29   1:00 PM   at SusquehannaW, 37-14   1   7   125%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   St. LawrenceW, 28-10   2   5   286%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   Merchant Marine * •   W, 41-3   0   8   0%
Oct. 27   2:00 PM   at Worcester P W, 21-14 2OT   4   4   500%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   Rochester * •               
Nov. 10   1:00 PM   at Union * •               
               17   38   309%
                     
      Hobart               
Sep. 8   1:00 PM   at Dickinson •L, 30-27 OT      6   2   750%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   Carnegie Mellon •W, 27-26      4   4   500%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   RPI * •   L, 35-31                                   7   0   1000%
Sep. 29   1:00 PM   at Worcester Poly W, 45-35      4   4   500%
Oct. 6   7:00 PM   at Susquehanna * •   W, 41-13      1   7   125%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   Merchant Marine * •   W, 55-9      0   8   0%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   St. Lawrence * •   W, 56-21      2   5   286%
Oct. 27   1:00 PM   Alfred •   W, 41-22                      7   1   875%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   at Union * •               
Nov. 10   12:00 PM   at Rochester * •               
                              31   31   500%
                     
      Rochester               
Sep. 1   12:00 PM   Carnegie Mellon •   L, 33-10      4   4   500%
Sep. 15   7:15 PM   at St. John Fisher •   L, 37-21      8   1   889%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   Union * •                   L, 13-7      6   2   750%
Sep. 29   2:00 PM   at St. Lawrence * •   W, 31-24      2   5   286%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   at Merchant Marine  W, 20-10      0   8   0%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   at Mount Ida •   W, 43-28      3   6   333%
Oct. 20   1:00 PM   Worcester Polytech  W, 42-27      4   4   500%
Oct. 27   12:00 PM   Susquehanna * •   W, 38-20      1   7   125%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   at RPI * •               
Nov. 10   12:00 PM   Hobart * •               
                              28   37   431%
                     
                     
      Union               
Sep. 8   7:00 PM   Springfield •   L, 35-13      3   5   375%
Sep. 15   1:00 PM   at Muhlenberg •   L, 34-0      8   0   1000%
Sep. 22   1:00 PM   at Rochester * •   W, 13-7      5   3   625%
Sep. 29   2:00 PM   at Merchant Marine  W, 54-14      0   8   0%
Oct. 6   1:00 PM   Worcester Polytech  W, 16-3      4   4   500%
Oct. 13   1:00 PM   Susquehanna * •   W, 34-7      1   7   125%
Oct. 27   1:00 PM   at St. Lawrence * •   W, 20-9      2   5   286%
Nov. 3   1:00 PM   Hobart * •               
Nov. 10   1:00 PM   RPI * •               
                     
                              23   32   418%

If your intent was to show the OWP of each team, you forgot one small thing -- it's necessary to subtract the team's result from each matchup from the total wins/losses.  Doing so gives you:

RPI: 17-31 (0.354)
Hobart: 29-25 (0.537)
Rochester: 25-32 (0.438)
Union: 21-27 (0.438)

[labart96]

Regardless, if Hobart has any hopes of qualifying for the NCAAs they need to a win against this tough Alfred squad.  The keys to a Hobart victory will be 3-fold:

1. Keep the Alfred Offense OFF the Boz - One stat that Hobart has a clear advantage over Alfred is time of possession.  Hobart is currently averaging about 34+ mins/game in TOP to Alfred's 29+ TOP.  Keeping Keeley, Hendrix and Co off the field will help, but I still expect this to be a high scoring affair.  Hopefully Hobart will get the final possession with a chance to win the game with a last second TD drive or a big FG from Ancona for the win.

2.  Capitalize on Saxon Mistakes - AU is definitely a great team, but they have a track record of being prone to mental errors.  Alfred commits an average of nearly 100 yards in penalties a game and has fumbled 12x this season, losing 8.  They have also thrown 6 INTs on the year.  Perhaps these stats are skewed because the Saxon coaches have been putting in 2nd and/or 3rd string players in the second halves of their games (Alfred has typically been up by an average of 3 TDs at the half), but Hobart will need to generate takeaways on defense (see Key #1) to win the game.  One explain of why AU has struggled with penalties and miscues is the old "they play down to their opponents" argument, because AU hasn't really faced any top rated opponents (so far Alfred most impressive win was last week over a then 5-2 Husson, but one of Husson's losses was to 3-4 Springfield, so that's not saying a lot).  Regardless, Hobart has to be opportunistic to stand a chance against this powerful Alfred squad.


3.  Play to Win - Although Alfred is the favorite, Hobart has owned the series of late.  Hobart should be confident based on their recent  track record against the Saxons and the fact that the game is on the Statesmen's home turf.  If Hartwick could upset a then #5 St. John Fisher team just a few weeks ago, then there's no reason Hobart couldn't pull off a similar upset.  Besides, Alfred can still clinch a NCAA bid by winning the Empire 8 conference's AQ (given to the first place team), whereas Hobart's NCAA chances pretty much hinge on winning this game.  Lose and Hobart's best hope would be to qualify for an ECAC Post Season Regional Bowl Game instead of a shot at the NCAA tournament.  In sum, Alfred may be the favorite, but Hobart has more to lose so they need to leave it all on the field, especially for the Seniors who will be playing their final regular season game at Boswell Field.

TGP's Prediction:

Hobart 45 - Alfred 42 (OT)

1.  Check - Hobart beat AU by a 13 min margin in the TOP dept last Saturday.
2.  Check - Hobart was +3 in turnover margin and was only penalized 1x for 5 yds vs. AU's 6 penalties for 45 yds.
3.  Check - Hobart gave its seniors a proper send off and kept their NCAA playoff hopes alive. 

[Frank Rossi]

Time to Simplify the LL Playoff Picture
------------------------------------------

First, let's deal with the obvious:  Merchant Marine (0-8, 0-5 LL), Susquehanna (1-7, 0-5 LL) and St. Lawrence (2-5, 1-4 LL) are all eliminated from any NCAA or ECAC playoff contention.  WPI (4-4, 1-4 LL) is also eliminated from NCAA playoff contention, but would be ECAC-eligible with one additional win.  Yet, it's unlikely that a team with four losses and a 0.600 overall record could receive a bid this year, assuming WPI were to win out its remaining schedule.

That leaves RPI (7-0, 5-0 LL), Union (5-2, 5-0 LL), Hobart (6-2, 4-1 LL) and Rochester (5-3, 4-1 LL).  All four teams are still in contention for Pool A and ECAC playoff slots.  However, only RPI and Hobart are eligible for Pool C slots.

Let's make things simple:  the four teams all play inclusively in the final two weeks (this weekend, Hobart at Union and Rochester at RPI -- next weekend, Hobart at Rochester and RPI at Union).  As somebody stated earlier, there are 16 possible combinations of wins and losses, but it isn't that difficult quite yet.

Four scenarios include Union and RPI both winning this week.  If this happens, then Rochester and Hobart would be excluded from Pool A contention and Hobart would be excluded from Pool C contention.  RPI and Union's final game would determine the Pool A winner.

Four other scenarios include Union winning and RPI losing this week.  If this happens, then, again, Rochester and Hobart would be excluded from Pool A contention and Hobart would be excluded from Pool C contention.  RPI and Union's final game would again determine the Pool A winner, as RPI would win in a three-way tie with one loss or Union would win outright at 7-0 in the LL.

That takes care of eight scenarios -- If Union wins this weekend, then the RPI-Union game will determine the LL -- and those will be the only teams eligible for NCAA Playoff contention.

Where it gets a bit more difficult is when we look at the final eight scenarios.  First, four scenarios are controlled by Union losing and RPI winning this weekend.  If this happens, then, again, Hobart and Rochester are eliminated from Pool A contention, as RPI could do no worse than finish in a three-way, one-loss tie or any two-way tie that it controls.  The difference is that the RPI-Union game will not directly determine the LL Pool A slot -- RPI would still win if it loses and ends up in a three-way tie.  In other words, if Union loses and RPI wins this weekend, then if Hobart beats Rochester in the final weekend, then RPI is guaranteed the Pool A slot regardless of result in the RPI-Union game.  If Rochester were to beat Hobart, then the RPI-Union game would determine the LL Championship.  So, Union needs to root for Rochester to beat Hobart in the final week if Union loses to Hobart this week to have any control over its own destiny.

The messiest scenarios fall out if Union and RPI both lose this weekend.  This would make all teams 5-1 in the LL going into the final weekend.  This would guarantee that only two teams would end up in a tie after the final week.  So, if RPI and Union both lose this weekend, Rochester would win the LL only by beating Hobart and RPI beating Union (Rochester would win the tiebreaker against RPI in this scenario).  Hobart would win the LL only by beating Rochester and Union beating RPI.  These are the ONLY two scenarios inside which neither RPI nor Union would win the LL.

To summarize, here are the 16 scenarios:

Union and RPI win this weekend:  Union-RPI game determines Pool A, and Hobart out of Pool C consideration

Union wins, RPI loses this weekend:  Union-RPI game determines Pool A, and Hobart out of Pool C consideration

Union loses, RPI wins this weekend:  Union-RPI game determines Pool A and Hobart is out of Pool C consideration ONLY if Rochester beats Hobart.  Otherwise, RPI wins Pool A slot and Hobart remains in Pool C consideration

Union and RPI lose this weekend:  Final weekend's games determine winner whereby the following results will have the listed ramifications:  
(1) Union and Hobart win -- Hobart wins Pool A, RPI a questionable Pool C candidate;

(2) Union and Rochester win -- Union wins Pool A, Hobart out of Pool C contention;

(3) RPI and Hobart win -- RPI wins Pool A, Hobart in Pool C consideration; or

(4) RPI and Rochester win -- Rochester wins Pool A, Hobart out of Pool C consideration and RPI a questionable Pool C candidate.

Finally, use the three-loss rule for the cutoff when considering ECAC Playoff contention.  It is unlikely that a four-loss team will be selected for these games.  However, at least one three-loss team will be selected from the NEFC, LL, E8 or NJAC teams in Upstate New York and New England that miss the NCAA playoffs.

(EDIT:  Pool A chances for each team, assuming each remaining game to be a 50/50 chance for either team, are:

RPI - 50%, Union - 37.5%, Hobart - 6.25% and Rochester - 6.25%)

(EDIT 2:  RPI with one loss but losing the LL Pool A slot is a virtual lock for a Pool C bid.  However, a 7-2 RPI would be in deep trouble currently, based on Strength of Schedule.  Interestingly, there is no scenario whereby RPI and Hobart both are in consideration for Pool C slots at two losses.  Thus, Hobart's best chance for a Pool C slot is if RPI beats Union.)