FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

Dear LLPPers,

I'm torn about an issue and was hoping you could help me with the problem.  I discussed this with RT last night, and I think he's disappointed in me for taking the stance I have already.  Perhaps I need to re-evaluate said stance.

Here's the issue:  I can't find it inside me to root for Ithaca this weekend.  It's not that I'm a huge fan of Mount Union -- I'm somewhat ambivalent toward Mt. Union now that Garcon is gone.  I found it much easier to root for Fisher last year because, while I think a lot of the Fisher rhetoric about being the team of destiny was a little stoopid, I respect the fact that they played a hardcore schedule over the last seven or eight years to build their program up to where it is today.  In the case of Ithaca, though, I'm really sick of the Bombers and their rhetoric -- sort of in a "what have you done for me lately" approach.

The thing that tipped me toward this lack of support for Ithaca this year is the withdrawal from ECAC consideration when they were well on the outside looking in on the NCAA Playoff bubble.  It just made no sense and almost smells of "the ECACs don't deserve us" mentality.  Sure, Union would have benefitted from such brattyness, but it undermines the institution of the ECAC Bowls, love them or hate them, that allows teams to have a little time in the spotlight before turning in their uniforms for the season.

So, I ask you LLPPers, am I wrong for my refusal to root for Ithaca to this point?  I mean, 27% of the voters in the E8PP think Ithaca will win Saturday -- should I join this bandwagon?  Should I join the frothy discussion going on in the E8PP?  Or is it acceptable to retain my current stance and pretty much root for a well-played game in which Ithaca gets its tail handed to it like Mt. Union's other ten opponents this year?

Please help me with this troubling issue, LLPPers.  I thank you in advance.

Your friend,

Frank "the Tank" Rossi

[labart96]

Here's a hack at previewing the Bart-SJF game (homer alert!) 

NCAA Play-off Preview:   #5 Hobart vs. #2 St John Fisher

With RPI's (8-1, 5-1) 20-14 victory over Union College (5-4, 4-2), the Statesmen had to hope for a Pool C "at large" invitation.  Fortunately for Hobart, on Sunday morning the Selection Committee rewarded the Statesmen's efforts with a #5 seeding in the East Region Bracket.  For the second time in 2 weeks, Hobart will make the short drive to Rochester, but this time will head to the campus of the St John Fisher Cardinals (9-1, 5-1).  SJF also made the field of 32 as a Pool C entrant having lost earlier in the year to Hartwick (8-2, 5-1) who won the Empire 8 Conference's Pool A bid following a 72-70 4 OT victory over Utica.

Like Hobart (averaging nearly 39 pts a game), Fisher has a high powered offense.  SJF QB Rob Kramer has had a great season throwing 143-230-6 for 62.2% completions, 1894 yds and 25 TDs (162 QB efficiency - almost identical to Strom's rating.  In general Strom's stats are only slightly better in all categories except for yardage where he has thrown for over 600 yds more than Kramer).  Kramer can also tuck and run, having gained 162 yds and 3 rushing TDs (compared to Strom's 393 yds and 3 TDs).  SJF RB Ryan Hanson is the Cardinals leading rusher tallying 951 yds and 11 TDs.  RB James Reile is a good change of pace for SJF, adding 636 yds and 7 TDs.

Like Strom, Kramer also has a solid trio of WRs.  SJF WR Jimmy Smith is Kramer's favorite target with 39 catches for 653 yds and 12 TDs.  Smith was responsible for SJF's longest TD reception on the season, a 97 yarder that helped lead SJF over Brockport 45-7 back in October.

Looking at the big picture, for Hobart to beat SJF, they will need to figure out a way to solve for SJF's defense, while maitaining their own brand of "bend, don't break" defensive play that helped them into the play-offs. 

Hobart thrives on Strom's ability to move the chains and leverage off of deep threats LiDrazzah (56 catches, 821 yds, 9 TD) and Wright (55R-850YD-12TD) to stretch the field.  Since the Statesmen don't really have a primary back, expect Coach Cragg to continue the rotation of Hobaica (569 yds, 7 TD), Marlier (284 yds, 6 TD), and Gilardi (302 yds, 5 TD) to give SJF different looks.  A key match up will be how Hobart's FBs Rob Nieves and/or Dan Bittner help isolate the SJF LBs to give the Statesmen RB's a chance to gain some yards against their extremely stingy rush defense.

Aside from Hobart's slight advantage in total offense and SJF's scoring and rushing defense advantages, the match ups are pretty even across the board (sorry, but TGP was too stoopid and couldn't get the damn numbers to line up).

   Hobart   SJF
Scoring Offense   38.3   39
Rushing Yds/Game   170.7   189.1
TDs Rushing   23   24
Passing Yds/Game   272.6   198.8
TDs Passing   28   25
Total Offense   443.3   387.9
TOP   33:20:00   30:13:00
INTs thrown   2   7
Fumbles lost   3   4
     
Scoring Defense   22.5   12.8
Rush Allowed   153.2   91.9
Rush TD Allowed   20   5
Pass Allowed   154.3   180.7
Pass TD Allowed   9   11
INTs   16   23
FR   6   8
     
Avg Penalties   39.5   44.5
Punting (Net Avg)   32.5   36.8
FGs   77%   69%
Long FG   41   40
PATs   92%   94%
Kick Return AVG   20.1   25.2
Punt Return AVG   6.2   13.8

For SJF to beat Hobart, they will need to get Strom to do something he rarely has done all season and that's to throw interceptions.  TGP expects SJF to blitz Strom a lot meaning the Statesmen will have opportunities to get the ball to LiDrazzah and Wright (possibly Vincent who has emerged as a strong possesion receiver in the last few games) since they'll be in single coverage.  TE Matt Duliba is also a viable option due to his size (6'1", 225) and speed.

Hobart's experienced secondary should be up to the task.  James Alexander leads the Statesmen D with 8 picks on the season.  Justin Hager (LB) leads the team in tackles (99), while Jim Drury (DL) and Kwame Lovell (OLB) lead the Statesmen with 4 and 3 sacks, respectively.  SJF's OL will need to account for Sr DL Ryan Aruck who's 3rd on the team in tackles (47) and often freeing up Hager to make tackles because he's drawing double teams from the opposition's line.

Although Hobart leads the all-time series 10-4, SJF has won the last 2 meetings (with 17-14 and 20-12 wins in 2002 and 2003, respectively).  Neither team has played the other since 2003.  This season the only common opponents between the 2 schools were Rochester; who Hobart beat last weekend and SJF defeated in Week 3 of the season by a score of 37-21 and Alfred; who Hobart beat in Week 8 41-22 and SJF beat last weekend 39-18.

For this weekend's game, TGP is going to bank on Andy Strom being the difference.  In fact, going into the Rochester game, Hobart lead the nation with fewest turnovers lost.  The ability to control TOP and not make drive killing mistakes will be a key component to Hobart's success against SJF.

TGP believes the game will be more of defensive battle than both teams are used to playing with Hobart struggling to establish the run and SJF having success moving the chains but not scoring points.  In the end it will come down to which defense makes the big play (basically forcing the opposing offense to make a critical mistake).  My money is on Strom (and Ancona, Hobart's Sr PK and leading scorer with 77 pts on 10-13 FG and 47-51 PATs) to lead Hobart past the Cardinals by a FG.

TGP's Prediction:

Hobart 27 - St John Fisher 24

[Knightstalker]

Frank, as a poster that has no FB team to root for, KS always roots for the NJAC teams first but when playoff time comes around will root for the East region team.  KS hopes Ithaca goes to Ohio and shows those Ohitians that the East can play football also.  They should know it, they have only lost to a couple of teams over the last 10 years and Rowan is one of them.  KS won't vote for Ithaca to win but KS wants them to for the East as a whole.

[Jonny Utah]

Dear LLPPers,

I'm torn about an issue and was hoping you could help me with the problem.  I discussed this with RT last night, and I think he's disappointed in me for taking the stance I have already.  Perhaps I need to re-evaluate said stance.

Here's the issue:  I can't find it inside me to root for Ithaca this weekend.  It's not that I'm a huge fan of Mount Union -- I'm somewhat ambivalent toward Mt. Union now that Garcon is gone.  I found it much easier to root for Fisher last year because, while I think a lot of the Fisher rhetoric about being the team of destiny was a little stoopid, I respect the fact that they played a hardcore schedule over the last seven or eight years to build their program up to where it is today.  In the case of Ithaca, though, I'm really sick of the Bombers and their rhetoric -- sort of in a "what have you done for me lately" approach.

The thing that tipped me toward this lack of support for Ithaca this year is the withdrawal from ECAC consideration when they were well on the outside looking in on the NCAA Playoff bubble.  It just made no sense and almost smells of "the ECACs don't deserve us" mentality.  Sure, Union would have benefitted from such brattyness, but it undermines the institution of the ECAC Bowls, love them or hate them, that allows teams to have a little time in the spotlight before turning in their uniforms for the season.

So, I ask you LLPPers, am I wrong for my refusal to root for Ithaca to this point?  I mean, 27% of the voters in the E8PP think Ithaca will win Saturday -- should I join this bandwagon?  Should I join the frothy discussion going on in the E8PP?  Or is it acceptable to retain my current stance and pretty much root for a well-played game in which Ithaca gets its tail handed to it like Mt. Union's other ten opponents this year?

Please help me with this troubling issue, LLPPers.  I thank you in advance.

Your friend,

Frank "the Tank" Rossi

1) Nobody is taking those polls seriously.  If you had to put your credit card # up there with your pick, you would have different outcomes

2) Root for whoever you want.

3) What rhertoric are you talking about?  What a few IC posters on here say doesn't represent the Ithaca football program. (a good amount of them are fans that never played, and Im not knocking them, I think its cool that IC even has "fans" on here) say.

4) You probably don't know what Ithacas reasoning was for those ECAC games anyway.  Some teams react different to the ECAC games depending on the team, and how the season ends up.  There might be other factors involved too.

5) While Ithaca might "snub its nose" at the ECAC, Union "snubs its nose" at state schools in all their sports.  Would I not root for Union vs. Mt Union because of this reason?  No.  

I love upstate football and will root for any upstate team that makes it  into the playoffs.  I think how IC does also has future consideration as to how upstate teams might be considered for the playoffs in the future.  SJFs final game last year helped IC get into the playoffs this year.  I firmly believe that.  I will also root for any E8 team over other teams as I also think that helps out IC in the longrun.

And just like we talked about before Frank, I had a feeling that Ithaca would make these playoffs.  And the NCAA moved people around just to make it happen.

By the way, do you know whether Montlcair/Ithaca had which of the "5 criteria" that were to be "reviewed"?

[Frank Rossi]

JU -

One of the important things that happened, I believe, is that Ithaca's OWP climbed above Montclair's -- and that's something that was unexpected as of two+ weeks ago.  A lot of this had to do with the wins/losses by the teams' out-of-conference opponents and the teams Montclair and Ithaca had already played (i.e., Cortland and Rowan for Montclair -- Hartwick and Springfield for Ithaca).  So, that criterion changed into Ithaca's favor slightly.  That enabled the Cortland question (common opponent question) to become a larger focus -- and apparently, from what I have heard, led to secondary criteria being used to make a final decision.

[Pat Coleman]

Thankfully, the ECAC finally released the pairings...We've known since Saturday night that Union had a legitimate chance at an ECAC bid, once we learned that Ithaca withdrew.  My guess is the Coast Guard either withdrew or someone here was right about some arcane NEFC Championship exclusionary rule. 

I had heard CGA voted it down, fwiw.

[Jonny Utah]

Thankfully, the ECAC finally released the pairings...We've known since Saturday night that Union had a legitimate chance at an ECAC bid, once we learned that Ithaca withdrew.  My guess is the Coast Guard either withdrew or someone here was right about some arcane NEFC Championship exclusionary rule. 

I had heard CGA voted it down, fwiw.

That CGA loss was crushing.  They had the game won.

And Montclairs OPW was higher than ICs....

[Pat Coleman]

And Montclairs OPW was higher than ICs....

The numbers differ with that assessment:

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2007

[Jonny Utah]

Here's a hack at previewing the Bart-SJF game (homer alert!) 

NCAA Play-off Preview:   #5 Hobart vs. #2 St John Fisher

With RPI's (8-1, 5-1) 20-14 victory over Union College (5-4, 4-2), the Statesmen had to hope for a Pool C "at large" invitation.  Fortunately for Hobart, on Sunday morning the Selection Committee rewarded the Statesmen's efforts with a #5 seeding in the East Region Bracket.  For the second time in 2 weeks, Hobart will make the short drive to Rochester, but this time will head to the campus of the St John Fisher Cardinals (9-1, 5-1).  SJF also made the field of 32 as a Pool C entrant having lost earlier in the year to Hartwick (8-2, 5-1) who won the Empire 8 Conference's Pool A bid following a 72-70 4 OT victory over Utica.

Like Hobart (averaging nearly 39 pts a game), Fisher has a high powered offense.  SJF QB Rob Kramer has had a great season throwing 143-230-6 for 62.2% completions, 1894 yds and 25 TDs (162 QB efficiency - almost identical to Strom's rating.  In general Strom's stats are only slightly better in all categories except for yardage where he has thrown for over 600 yds more than Kramer).  Kramer can also tuck and run, having gained 162 yds and 3 rushing TDs (compared to Strom's 393 yds and 3 TDs).  SJF RB Ryan Hanson is the Cardinals leading rusher tallying 951 yds and 11 TDs.  RB James Reile is a good change of pace for SJF, adding 636 yds and 7 TDs.

Like Strom, Kramer also has a solid trio of WRs.  SJF WR Jimmy Smith is Kramer's favorite target with 39 catches for 653 yds and 12 TDs.  Smith was responsible for SJF's longest TD reception on the season, a 97 yarder that helped lead SJF over Brockport 45-7 back in October.

Looking at the big picture, for Hobart to beat SJF, they will need to figure out a way to solve for SJF's defense, while maitaining their own brand of "bend, don't break" defensive play that helped them into the play-offs. 

Hobart thrives on Strom's ability to move the chains and leverage off of deep threats LiDrazzah (56 catches, 821 yds, 9 TD) and Wright (55R-850YD-12TD) to stretch the field.  Since the Statesmen don't really have a primary back, expect Coach Cragg to continue the rotation of Hobaica (569 yds, 7 TD), Marlier (284 yds, 6 TD), and Gilardi (302 yds, 5 TD) to give SJF different looks.  A key match up will be how Hobart's FBs Rob Nieves and/or Dan Bittner help isolate the SJF LBs to give the Statesmen RB's a chance to gain some yards against their extremely stingy rush defense.

Aside from Hobart's slight advantage in total offense and SJF's scoring and rushing defense advantages, the match ups are pretty even across the board (sorry, but TGP was too stoopid and couldn't get the damn numbers to line up).

   Hobart   SJF
Scoring Offense   38.3   39
Rushing Yds/Game   170.7   189.1
TDs Rushing   23   24
Passing Yds/Game   272.6   198.8
TDs Passing   28   25
Total Offense   443.3   387.9
TOP   33:20:00   30:13:00
INTs thrown   2   7
Fumbles lost   3   4
     
Scoring Defense   22.5   12.8
Rush Allowed   153.2   91.9
Rush TD Allowed   20   5
Pass Allowed   154.3   180.7
Pass TD Allowed   9   11
INTs   16   23
FR   6   8
     
Avg Penalties   39.5   44.5
Punting (Net Avg)   32.5   36.8
FGs   77%   69%
Long FG   41   40
PATs   92%   94%
Kick Return AVG   20.1   25.2
Punt Return AVG   6.2   13.8

For SJF to beat Hobart, they will need to get Strom to do something he rarely has done all season and that's to throw interceptions.  TGP expects SJF to blitz Strom a lot meaning the Statesmen will have opportunities to get the ball to LiDrazzah and Wright (possibly Vincent who has emerged as a strong possesion receiver in the last few games) since they'll be in single coverage.  TE Matt Duliba is also a viable option due to his size (6'1", 225) and speed.

Hobart's experienced secondary should be up to the task.  James Alexander leads the Statesmen D with 8 picks on the season.  Justin Hager (LB) leads the team in tackles (99), while Jim Drury (DL) and Kwame Lovell (OLB) lead the Statesmen with 4 and 3 sacks, respectively.  SJF's OL will need to account for Sr DL Ryan Aruck who's 3rd on the team in tackles (47) and often freeing up Hager to make tackles because he's drawing double teams from the opposition's line.

Although Hobart leads the all-time series 10-4, SJF has won the last 2 meetings (with 17-14 and 20-12 wins in 2002 and 2003, respectively).  Neither team has played the other since 2003.  This season the only common opponents between the 2 schools were Rochester; who Hobart beat last weekend and SJF defeated in Week 3 of the season by a score of 37-21 and Alfred; who Hobart beat in Week 8 41-22 and SJF beat last weekend 39-18.

For this weekend's game, TGP is going to bank on Andy Strom being the difference.  In fact, going into the Rochester game, Hobart lead the nation with fewest turnovers lost.  The ability to control TOP and not make drive killing mistakes will be a key component to Hobart's success against SJF.

TGP believes the game will be more of defensive battle than both teams are used to playing with Hobart struggling to establish the run and SJF having success moving the chains but not scoring points.  In the end it will come down to which defense makes the big play (basically forcing the opposing offense to make a critical mistake).  My money is on Strom (and Ancona, Hobart's Sr PK and leading scorer with 77 pts on 10-13 FG and 47-51 PATs) to lead Hobart past the Cardinals by a FG.

TGP's Prediction:

Hobart 27 - St John Fisher 24

Good preview TGP.  I think another factor is going to be Hobarts dline against SJFs big oline and power running game that they like to establish right off the bat....

[theoriginalupstate]

Frank,

fwiw, i've always gone this route during the postseason...

1) Own Team
2) Own Conference
3) Own Region
4) Anyone not wearing purple

[Frank Rossi]

Thankfully, the ECAC finally released the pairings...We've known since Saturday night that Union had a legitimate chance at an ECAC bid, once we learned that Ithaca withdrew.  My guess is the Coast Guard either withdrew or someone here was right about some arcane NEFC Championship exclusionary rule. 

I had heard CGA voted it down, fwiw.

That CGA loss was crushing.  They had the game won.

And Montclairs OPW was higher than ICs....

Interesting, JU.  From the Strength of Schedule Page:

Team          Reg. W-L    Reg. win%     OWP     OOWP
----          --------    ---------    -----   ------
Ithaca          8-2         0.800      0.539   0.548
Montclair       8-2         0.800      0.528   0.537

[Jonny Utah]

And Montclairs OPW was higher than ICs....

The numbers differ with that assessment:

http://www.d3football.com/strength-of-schedule/2007

I guess I dont know exactly what Opponents Winning Percentage is.

Ithacas opponents were 49-51 and Montclairs were 52-18.  And all the games were in-region.  Maybe Im adding wrong.

[JT]

Frank,

I'm certainly not a Bomber fan during the season.  Mount Union only has one out of conference game per year.  So this is something new. Plus I'm an East fan. My loyalty goes Rowan, NJAC, RPI, East, Stagg Bowl underdog in that order.  

RPI became my second favorite DIII team after 2003.  It was a great run and LD and boys are completely insane and I dig that.

Wouldn't it be cool that if Ithaca doesn't win but they give Mount a better game than in the regular season?  Then other East teams take shot and play well or win.

I hope Ithaca wins.  I remember being told in 1999 to not even bother going out to Alliance give Rowan's prior performances.  I saw history in OT.  I was told in 2005 that Rowan would get blasted w/o Orihel.  Rowan hung tough.  Man if only Orihel not gotten hurt at Cortland in 2005.

Anyway I say Ooga Booga!

[Jonny Utah]

Maybe 5 of Brockports games do not count there because they arent in region? (making them 3-2 instead of 5-5?)

[labart96]

Thx JU.

Hobart's DL is pretty big too.  Aruck is one of the better DLs in recent Hobart FB history.  That kid is 6-2, 305 - probably the same size if not bigger than SJF's OL men - and wreaks havoc on opposing OLs.

Our other DT is a big guy too (6-0, 280), but not as experienced as Aruck.

DEs are solid, but not that big 6-1, 230 and 6-1, 240.