FB: Liberty League

[Knightstalker]

Week 5 NFL Cheerleaders .

TOTD for October so far.

[pumkinattack]

Credit markets are suggesting the bottom might be at 7500.  I don't really follow the DOW though.  I really don't believe that those 30 companies reflect economic production appropriately (plus price weighting is a strange way to evaluate economic output).  Some suggest the Nasdaq given the nature of the companies, but S & P 500 is the one I pay closest attention to personally.  They're all down anyway. 

I hear people talking about earnings (not necessarily on this board), but valuation is more closely aligned to the perpetual growth rate (all company valuations end with that rate after some years of "irregular growth") and the discount rate.  I think the discount rate (cost of equity) has gone up dramatically, which means a historical evaluation of PE ratio's may not tell you anything.  So, if you've got jacked up discount rates and lower perpetual growth rates (slower global growth plus higher cost of capital), you are going to have PE contraction.   

[Frank Rossi]

they are doing small buybacks to cover their positions and reset their hedges. they are going to kill it this afternoon wait until you see the drop. no one wants to be long on a 3 day weekend....gm, ford, chrysler, morgan stanley, ubs could easily all be gone in the next 2 weeks.

Doubt that, uPBR -- My thought is that right now, EVERYTHING is subject to a government bailout for the next two months.  The government is going to prevent the public knowledge or notice of potential disasters now.

we shall see, of course a number of ratings analysts are now agreeing saying its a very distinct possibility. and yes the govt will bail them out somewhat mainly their pension funds but most people will get something like .20cents on the dollar and huge medical cost increases. sorry you were right you didnt call the bottom at 9100, you just said the bottom is forming (when it closed at 9100 that day) and there will be a little bleeding left to do...         (this doesnt even go into the rumors of a nationalized banking system and many major corporations that are on the ropes right now...pbr hopes everyone is in cash and gold bars right now)

Actually, gold bars might not be as strong as one wants to think... Gold is still not back to its high (around $1,050/ounce) and is acting a little odd today, perhaps buckling because the dollar is holding up still at much-improved levels.  Silver's high in this cycle was $22.50/ounce, and it's now 45% lower than that level.  Platinum's high was $2,300/ounce and is now down about 55% from that level.  Metals have not been a surefire wealth-holder of late, although gold itself has done better than its colleagues.

[Edit:  Believe it or not, the strongest investment going is -- the US Dollar.  Over the last three months, the dollar has improved nearly 17% vs. the Euro, somewhat bolstering my view that the US is not the tail wagging the dog still.  So long as this continues, the US financial system will still remain the strongest when compared to its European counterparts long-term.]

[pumkinattack]

One area I think you can do alright is senior secured bank debt.  I'm not sure what options retail investors have - I know there are some mutual funds out there, but I suspect the mgt. fees are high - but I can tell you that credit spreads on high quality term loan B deals are stupid high.  One example is the mars/wrigley deal (or Osh Kosh Trucks is another example).  Tips work, but you need to hold them to maturity if you buy today because they'll be worth less than par in the secondary market once the effects of our government's printing money like we're Germany and just lost world war II. 

For anyone who has the attention span, there's a good book about money as a store of value called the Power of Gold that was written by Peter Bernstein (an economist).  Its not a summer page burner, but interesting for the inclined. 

For a more entertaining option, a classic:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guqWPMv2ieY

[Frank Rossi]

One important sign that the initial stages of the bailout and the Fed's actions are beginning to have some effect:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/10/markets/bondcenter/credit_markets/index.htm?postversion=2008101013

The Libor rate has been obscenely high because the demand for money and the supply of money to be loaned over the last couple weeks has been so out of whack.  Keep your eye on the overnight (O/N) and 3-month Libor rates over the next two weeks.

[dewcrew88]

I like the fact that oil keeps going down... makes gas cheaper for me. [/stupidhead about the economy] 

[PBR...]

yup capital one just pulled out of doing car inventory loans in nj/ny ....leaving car dealers unable to get any financing for inventory. banks dont want to be left holding chevys rather than cash. going to drive many dealerships to go out of business or combine and many people to be laid off. car dealers are in a panic and makes things that much more grim overall for the big 3.

nuff of this...back to normal llpp programming....

[mattvsmith]

It's also subject to a two-year lookback period related to fraudulent transfers -- so upon filing for bankruptcy, the manuever could be undone and place you in the same position -- or worse since the credit card companies may have an issue with you and you may be forced into a Chapter 13 instead of a Chapter 7.  Highly inadvisable move, if you ask me.

The Rev is not really planning to do this.  It's just an evil thought that pops into his mind occassionally.

[pumkinattack]

Rev, what are you doing in Geneva (other than seeing the game)?  Are you going to see Ma and Gary at the Show and then slobber over some Cams?  I don't know your feeling on it, but I always try to go to Uncle Joes.  Love that place. 

If you haven't been in a while, the campus has undergone a number of changes/improvements.  I'm heading up for the UR game.  They're tearing up the Boz after that and putting down some field turf.  I believe they're doing some work to the stands too.  I think its lax driven, not football.  Funny thing is all the older, DIII lax studs tell me the watered down field was an advantage where they typically had mroe physical, Urick style players. 

Credit cards are a funny thing because they get paid off numerous times and yet there often seems to be a balance.  After grad school I paid them down aggresively, bought an engagement ring, paid it all off and then I run a small balance again for the wedding (which will be paid off within 12 months, but still). 

[pumkinattack]

One more thing:  Does anyone have a surefire way to get out of serving in Jury Duty?  PA has a new job he's supposed to start 10/20, but has a jury duty summons for 10/16 (Thursday).  I already let them know it could be an issue with the start date, but would prefer to not have to deal with that. 

[mattvsmith]

Rev, what are you doing in Geneva (other than seeing the game)?  Are you going to see Ma and Gary at the Show and then slobber over some Cams?  I don't know your feeling on it, but I always try to go to Uncle Joes.  Love that place. 

If you haven't been in a while, the campus has undergone a number of changes/improvements.  I'm heading up for the UR game.  They're tearing up the Boz after that and putting down some field turf.  I believe they're doing some work to the stands too.  I think its lax driven, not football.  Funny thing is all the older, DIII lax studs tell me the watered down field was an advantage where they typically had mroe physical, Urick style players. 

Credit cards are a funny thing because they get paid off numerous times and yet there often seems to be a balance.  After grad school I paid them down aggresively, bought an engagement ring, paid it all off and then I run a small balance again for the wedding (which will be paid off within 12 months, but still). 

PA,
The Rev hits campus at least once a year for either the Union or RPI game, and keeps tabs on things in general.  This year's trip is going to be very short.  Dad has to be back to go out with some friends on Saturday night, so The Rev can't hang in Geneva too long.  Before the game we are going to buy a large pizza from Cam's so The Rev will have something to gnosh on all weekend.  The Rev has either a bright orange polo or an official Hobart orange and blue (sadly) rugby depending on the weather.  School Spirit indeed!

BTW, Hobart really used to be a mud team in lacrosse.  That was part of the Magic of the Boz.

[AUPepBand]

One more thing:  Does anyone have a surefire way to get out of serving in Jury Duty?  PA has a new job he's supposed to start 10/20, but has a jury duty summons for 10/16 (Thursday).  I already let them know it could be an issue with the start date, but would prefer to not have to deal with that. 

Homer: "Getting out of jury duty is easy. The trick is to say you're prejudiced against all races."

...the E8PP has spent a Friday quoting Homer Simpson... 

[superman57]

One more thing:  Does anyone have a surefire way to get out of serving in Jury Duty?  PA has a new job he's supposed to start 10/20, but has a jury duty summons for 10/16 (Thursday).  I already let them know it could be an issue with the start date, but would prefer to not have to deal with that. 

call them... explain the situation... often times they are understanding... otherwise, go opposite of what the attorney is asking you and you should be ok...

[Frank Rossi]

One more thing:  Does anyone have a surefire way to get out of serving in Jury Duty?  PA has a new job he's supposed to start 10/20, but has a jury duty summons for 10/16 (Thursday).  I already let them know it could be an issue with the start date, but would prefer to not have to deal with that. 

Normally, depending on jurisdiction, you get one or two free passes if you notify the court.  There's no way to truly escape it, though.

[dewcrew88]

One more thing:  Does anyone have a surefire way to get out of serving in Jury Duty?  PA has a new job he's supposed to start 10/20, but has a jury duty summons for 10/16 (Thursday).  I already let them know it could be an issue with the start date, but would prefer to not have to deal with that. 

Normally, depending on jurisdiction, you get one or two free passes if you notify the court.  There's no way to truly escape it, though.

I'll tell you my secret:





"I'm a journalist."


Eh, voila. No jury duty.