FB: Liberty League

[superman57]

wait... why is a 7-3 fisher squad out... if in reality we would be looking at a 7-1 fisher squad who owns a blow out win vs. Ithaca...

and we are not calling wick's win a fluke... but you look at scores... Ithaca Dominated Wick, Fisher Dominated Ithaca, Wick beat Fisher.... if this was a multiple choice question where what is different than the others the answer is C

[redswarm81]

In TGP's opinion, even at 9-1 WPI would fail to get a Pool C assuming that:

a) RPI wins the AQ for the LL (and the committee uses last season's play-off results as a reason to only invite one LL team)
b) Crazy E8's: Ithaca finishes 8-2 (beating Cortland) but not winning the E8, Hartwick going 9-1 (loss to IC, win over SJFC), sjfc finishing 7-3 and winning E8 due to tiebreaker over 'wick
c) NJAC gets two or three (Cortland getting the AQ, Montclair or Kean winning out)
d) same deal with the MAC (Del Val and Lyco)
e)  Muhlenberg gets rolled into the east bracket (highly likely)

Only scenario that might work is if WPI runs the table and has Hobart and Union beat RPI giving WPI the AQ.

It's pretty late, so TGP may be way off......

a) I don't see anything in the selection and seeding criteria that permits the committee to use last year's playoff results in making their selections.

b) The E8 is indeed crazy, but 7-3 SJF is not a safe bet for SoS tiebreaker over both 8-2 Ithaca and 9-1 'Wick--IC benefits from a big Cortland in-region OWP boost, whether they win the Cortaca Jug or not.  Once again, SJF's out-of-region games v. MUC and SAL are no help at all.

c, d) The selection criteria apply to NJAC no differently than they apply to MAC, LL, E8, and even (I know it's hard to believe) NEFC.  There's no reason to expect that those selection criteria will favor NJAC and MAC just because they're NJAC and MAC. 

However, since one of the primary selection criteria is record v. regionally ranked opponents, I'm really curious to see how those look.  If Alfred makes it on to the regional top ten, that could give the E8 a big boost.

e) We've seen that the selection committee is not bashful about moving top seeds into the East, so it's a possibility.  But given the Lambert Poll conversation yesterday, I'm not so sure Muhlenberg is a good candidate for moving to the East, at least not as a top seed.

Muhlenberg coming into the East probably relies more on whether Cortland can run the table or not.  If Cortland misses, then Muhlenberg probably comes in as the 1 seed in the East -- and it probably caps the number of Pool C teams in the East to two.

There are not many chances for teams in the 5 East Region Conferences to miss their conference's AQ with just one regional loss.  In fact, it is unlikely that it happens in the NJAC (Kean, Rowan and Montclair must all face each other still) -- and unlikely in the MAC if Del Val sweeps.  The NEFC likely doesn't get consideration here, even with a 10-1 Curry (although, this has been an issue of concern).  The best present potential for a one-loss-in-region team missing the conference AQ is Ithaca and/or WPI.

It would be tough for the Committee to deny WPI if their only loss was to RPI, if RPI goes undefeated.  However, a very poor SoS would be a problem, as discussed.

My point here is that there will not be many one-loss-in-region teams in the East Region conferences -- giving WPI some chance of securing a Pool C bid if it runs the table and fails to win a Pool A bid.

I think that the dearth of one-loss-in-region Pool C candidates might be a national trend--look at the MIAC, for example.

I probably rely too heavily on the text of the selection criteria, but I don't see how the committee could select a 7-3 anybody over a 10-1 Curry for a Pool C bid.  It's likely that 10-1 Curry won't have any wins v. regionally ranked opponents, but they will have a 200+ point lead in regional winning percentage.  Even an 8-2 candidate will trail 10-1 Curry by over 100 points in winning percentage--that's more than a full game in the standings.

[Jonny Utah]

wait... why is a 7-3 fisher squad out... if in reality we would be looking at a 7-1 fisher squad who owns a blow out win vs. Ithaca...

and we are not calling wick's win a fluke... but you look at scores... Ithaca Dominated Wick, Fisher Dominated Ithaca, Wick beat Fisher.... if this was a multiple choice question where what is different than the others the answer is C

Thats what I was saying.  Although the Salsbury loss might should hurt SJF if IC beats Cortland.  And no, I don't want to see the how the numbers might effect it.

['gro]

how about this weekend's games?  Susquehanna is improved, this is their first (and last) game at '86 field... do they have a shot at throwing a big wrench in the LL season?

[pg04]

Why is this on two different pages???  Sorry but this whole conversation is becoming overwhelming and going nowhere..

God forbid, somebody talks football aside from the East Region Poll, eh?

Boy you can be a real Jerk (Changing the word to Jerk since I don't really like to curse) sometimes can't you?  No, it's just --- why is a discussion based almost entirely about the E8 in the LL?  You are arguing the same thing and saying the same thing IN BOTH SECTIONS... 

[Garnet]

As for Fox College Sports, they're only rebroadcasting what their regional networks have already shown.

Duh!

How about I rephrase the question....why are there no East region games being broadcast by FCS or their regional networks?  Does Fox not have any in the East region?

Do the powers that be consider the region not good enough?

Who knows

[Frank Rossi]

Wow - I just spent the last fifteen minutes reading some fairly detailed attempts to figure out rankings and post-season play when we are only mid-way through the year.  It sort of reminds me of the line in the movie "The Princess Bride" where Carey Elwes says, "clearly you have a dizzying intellect."  To which Fazinni responds, "what until I really get going."

Call me old fashioned but I just prefer to watch it all unfold and then read about the outcomes and save my analysis for things like the box scores.

As a true blue and gold Warrior I am proud of my alma mater's return to the winning side of things and wish they had executed that extra point try against IC in the first game of the season.

Go Warriors!

ATB

Lyco -

What started this is when I told the E8 board that their tiebreaker sucks since it could cause a 5-4 team to get a Pool A bid ahead of an 8-1 or 7-2 team with a similar but maybe slightly weaker schedule when there's a 3-way unbreakable tie (which seems to be a common potential scenario of late).  JU's been defending the tiebreaker, conceivably because Ithaca stands to benefit from the tiebreaker as it is currently written this year should they, Hartwick and SJF run the remainder of the E8 table this season.

What perpetuated it was the Lambert Poll release and Pat volunteering his ballot.  JU went ballistic that Pat had Hartwick in there but Ithaca just below the fold.  All we're trying to do now is inform JU that there are some people who can legitimately believe Ithaca is a lesser team than Hartwick and/or SJF when a three-way tie exists at this point since Hartwick has beaten two quality in-conference opponents and Ithaca's OOC performance was somewhat suspect at best (although Lycoming's improvement gives some level of comfort to Ithaca fans now, as it should).

JU believes to break the tie, we need to look at the quarter-by-quarter scores of games.  Then we can determine that a 69-42 score is a "domination" -- and a 37-6 loss was actually a win for Ithaca.  You know, nothing unusual in that analysis...

Anyway, I agree with you that it's early and things will begin to sort themselves out -- but one thing I need to make clear:  the E8 needs to change its tiebreaker in 2009.  It's a joke currently, and is going to make the conference look like a joke if it feeds a 3- or 4-loss team (regional losses, mind you) into the NCAAs without a good reason.

[Pat Coleman]

As for Fox College Sports, they're only rebroadcasting what their regional networks have already shown.

Duh!

How about I rephrase the question....why are there no East region games being broadcast by FCS or their regional networks?  Does Fox not have any in the East region?

Do the powers that be consider the region not good enough?

Who knows

That's a good question. For example, I know that there are a lot more regional nets in the area -- FCS wouldn't have access to a NESN game or an MSG game, if any even existed.

The games in the rest of the country are funded by the schools or the conferences. If the Liberty League were to step up and fund a TV game on FSNY (is there such a thing?) then there'd be a shot of it getting on FCS.

[Frank Rossi]

Why is this on two different pages???  Sorry but this whole conversation is becoming overwhelming and going nowhere..

God forbid, somebody talks football aside from the East Region Poll, eh?

Boy you can be a real Jerk (Changing the word to Jerk since I don't really like to curse) sometimes can't you?  No, it's just --- why is a discussion based almost entirely about the E8 in the LL?  You are arguing the same thing and saying the same thing IN BOTH SECTIONS... 

Yes, because the analysis of JU's anxiety in this board actually harkens back to his support for the E8 tiebreaker on that board.  If you took five minutes to read instead of bytching, you would see that this discussion came out of the Lambert Poll here and Pat's and Gordon's ballots being shown -- and JU's ensuing fit that Hartwick is on Pat's, but Ithaca is not.  

And yes, I can be an a$$, jerk or whatever else -- but only when it comes across that the other person is either being one himself or being somewhat insulting for no particularly good reason.  If you prefer 50 pages of Simpsons quotes, then nothing is stopping you from starting them up here instead of insulting people who are attempting to ensure some level of fairness when it comes to access to playoffs -- the goal of pretty much every school and conference in Division III football, including the LL and E8.

[pg04]

First of all I didn't start the whole Simpson's quote thing.  Secondly, this is the board that's usually off topic.  I'm all for good discussion but as our friend from Lycoming said earlier... it's "Mind-dizzying" to read it in both places.  I was just making a comment that it was confusing...Then you went off on me and mentioned the fan poll for no reason

[Frank Rossi]

how about this weekend's games?  Susquehanna is improved, this is their first (and last) game at '86 field... do they have a shot at throwing a big wrench in the LL season?

RPI hasn't lost a game coming out of a bye week in quite some time, so it's a real longshot.  Coach King seems to be able to motivate his crew during the break pretty well -- so I think the long travel for Susquehanna, the talent for RPI and the King's history combine here to propel RPI to a victory.  Granted, Susquehanna and Hobart are the best of the 1-loss teams in terms of controlling their own Pool A destinies (although they both need a slight bit of help, with Hobart winning the head-to-head currently against Susquehanna).  So, Susquehanna has a lot to play for Saturday.

[Edit: Hobart actually controls its own destiny.  Susquehanna controls its own only if Hobart loses once more.  WPI controls its own only if RPI loses twice.]

[JQV]

the goal of pretty much every school and conference in Division III football, including the LL and E8.

Not to speak for Coach Welch but this is not Ithaca's goal.

[Knightstalker]

I really don't think anyone here has the ability to "ensure fairness" when it comes to playoff access.  Unless some posters are also members of the championship committee or voting members of D-III all we can do here is discuss it and hope someone likes our ideas and floats them to the respective committees, but KS wouldn't hold his breath on that.

[Frank Rossi]

First of all I didn't start the whole Simpson's quote thing.  Secondly, this is the board that's usually off topic.  I'm all for good discussion but as our friend from Lycoming said earlier... it's "Mind-dizzying" to read it in both places.  I was just making a comment that it was confusing...Then you went off on me and mentioned the fan poll for no reason

Your comment was that it was going nowhere, and thus, senseless (paraphrasing).  I just summed it all up for Lycoming in a brief post here.  Just because you don't grasp an argument on its face doesn't make the argument invalid.

If mentioning the fan poll is going off on you... wow.  You might be more sensitive than even me!  I gots people who can help...

[Frank Rossi]

I really don't think anyone here has the ability to "ensure fairness" when it comes to playoff access.  Unless some posters are also members of the championship committee or voting members of D-III all we can do here is discuss it and hope someone likes our ideas and floats them to the respective committees, but KS wouldn't hold his breath on that.

Actually --

If you read the Daily Dose, Pat and Ralph Turner and people from the conferences caught an NCAA error for Pool B calculation and got it changed within a week.  So, that's not really true, KS.