FB: Liberty League

[Frank Rossi]

the goal of pretty much every school and conference in Division III football, including the LL and E8.

Not to speak for Coach Welch but this is not Ithaca's goal.

LOL -- OK, and I've got some swampland a few miles away from my place here to sell ya, Jose.  Real cheap.  Remote "Miami" location...

[Knightstalker]

I really don't think anyone here has the ability to "ensure fairness" when it comes to playoff access.  Unless some posters are also members of the championship committee or voting members of D-III all we can do here is discuss it and hope someone likes our ideas and floats them to the respective committees, but KS wouldn't hold his breath on that.

Actually --

If you read the Daily Dose, Pat and Ralph Turner and people from the conferences caught an NCAA error for Pool B calculation and got it changed within a week.  So, that's not really true, KS.

Reporting an error in a calculation is different than changing access policy.  But I will shut and let you be right Frank because I know better than to try to start to argue with a lawyer.  Just like a wife they will always have the last word.

[Garnet]

I think you are on to something Pat.  

MSG seems more interested in I AA games and also high school.  

Fox Sports NY does exist but they focus more on professional sports and also 1A and 1 AA football.

From what I have seen, only the local cable guys like Time Warner in the Albany area, broadcast D3 football.

I like watching the teams from other regions since I hear so much about them on this site but it would be nice to see a game from the East region since I am more familiar with the teams.

[Knightstalker]

I think you are on to something Pat.  

MSG seems more interested in I AA games and also high school.  

Fox Sports NY does exist but they focus more on professional sports and also 1A and 1 AA football.

From what I have seen, only the local cable guys like Time Warner in the Albany area, broadcast D3 football.

I like watching the teams from other regions since I hear so much about them on this site but it would be nice to see a game from the East region since I am more familiar with the teams.

I think MSG has or had a contract with a couple of the D-IAA conferences and they do show a lot of NYC and Long Island HS ball.

We can't even get NJAC coverage from the NJ Cable network, but they have a nice hour long Friday night HS Football recap every week.

[Frank Rossi]

I really don't think anyone here has the ability to "ensure fairness" when it comes to playoff access.  Unless some posters are also members of the championship committee or voting members of D-III all we can do here is discuss it and hope someone likes our ideas and floats them to the respective committees, but KS wouldn't hold his breath on that.

Actually --

If you read the Daily Dose, Pat and Ralph Turner and people from the conferences caught an NCAA error for Pool B calculation and got it changed within a week.  So, that's not really true, KS.

Reporting an error in a calculation is different than changing access policy.  But I will shut and let you be right Frank because I know better than to try to start to argue with a lawyer.  Just like a wife they will always have the last word.

LOL - No, you're right.  Thinking backward, though, I think the QoW calculation was abandoned in part because of fan response over the years (although I'm not sure the current SoS is a better idea on its face).  The increase in teams in the playoffs was similarly based on fan and school response to the old 16-team system being insufficient.  My point on E8 was that the conference's tiebreaker is a problem for its own playoff access -- and I'm sure the E8 has a rep who reads the board from time to time.  So hopefully, they will catch the issue and flag it for a 2009 change.  If they do, then you probably should attribute it to the debate since I had yet to here this discussion until we discussed it here.

[pumkinattack]

How about:  What one loss, second place team would have the best chance of a pool C this year?  Obviously we can't know a lot of things outside the league, but would a 9-1 WPI, 8-1 RPI or 8-1 Hobart have the best credentials?  Looking at the schedules and a suuperficial review of the criteria, Hobart looks like they might have the best shot of these three.  I don't know if the one extra game, and win, helps WPI, but both WPI and RPI appear to have non-conference opponents (one or more) that are likely to finish below .500 (for RPI - Utica, possibly Endicott, for WPI - Becker looks most likely, but Worcester St. and UMass Dartmouth are both 3-3 with Curry left among other opponents).  Bart's non-conference is Carnegie Mellon and Dickinson (currently 4 -2  and 3 - 3 respectively).  CMU has at least one win there and Dickinson has the two worst teams in the conference left, so they both look like .500 or better.  If WPI is 9-1, then Bart probably loses to RPI also and isn't regionally ranked at 6-3 (Union could be but then WPI's loss is to a 7-2 RPI).  If Bart beats WPI and loses to RPI, they might have a regionally ranked win vs. Bart (if Bart finishes 7 - 2).  

I think the E8 is getting a second team in because I think Ithaca is going to beat Cortland.  We don't really know, other than personnel analysis - where I guess Cortland brought a lot back, if the NJAC is a strong conference or has reverted to the eastern mean.  Because of the 9 game conference schedule in the NJAC, the three teams Cortland has beat (by small margins) have non-conference wins agains Bridgewater State, Merchant Marine and Wilkes (1-4 this year).  I also think the MAC is getting a second team in, so if Ithaca beats Cortland and they move Muhlenberg into the East, the LL may very well not get a second team in under any circumstances.  Truth is Bart's ceiling this year is 2nd round at best and they don't appear as good as any of the '04 - '07 teams, so in some ways, a WPI playoff team might be better for the conference, but I won't root for that unless WPI beats Bart.  

TGP,  nice mid season review.  Here's where the running game is frustrating.  Blackowski could break tackles and get two tough yards (even though he was only like 5-9, 185), Marlier and Hobaica don't do that.  Beyond that the running game is down by 20 yards from last year, but the O-line was less experienced last year - they returned 4 starters this year.  I have only been able to watch games via webcast (Dickinson, CMU, SU, Union), so its hard to tell, but it seems like the O-line doesn't create holes and the RB's don't pick up extra yards after contact.  One other potential problem is Siravo replacing Spinella at FB.  He is a converted LB.  How was the FB picking up blocks in the Union game?  Maybe its time to put in the 2nd string FB (FY - Fletcher) or 3rd RB (FY - Simon 6', 220lbs) to see what they can do.

[JQV]

the goal of pretty much every school and conference in Division III football, including the LL and E8.

Not to speak for Coach Welch but this is not Ithaca's goal.

LOL -- OK, and I've got some swampland a few miles away from my place here to sell ya, Jose.  Real cheap.  Remote "Miami" location...

Why would a team aim so low?  I would guess if you asked people associated with IC Football, they would say their goal is to win the Nat'l Champioship, not make the playoffs.  In fact, I would guess SJF has the same goal.

[Frank Rossi]

I think you are on to something Pat.  

MSG seems more interested in I AA games and also high school.  

Fox Sports NY does exist but they focus more on professional sports and also 1A and 1 AA football.

From what I have seen, only the local cable guys like Time Warner in the Albany area, broadcast D3 football.

I like watching the teams from other regions since I hear so much about them on this site but it would be nice to see a game from the East region since I am more familiar with the teams.

There used to be the Empire Sports Network's ECAC Game of the Week.  I remember that in 1996, one of those games was Union at Alfred during a small snow storm on November 2 (was my mom's bday).  I forgot my jacket, and those TV timeouts were killers for me.  Also almost took a digger trying to get on the field for postgame interviews.

Anyway, that's the closest to regular coverage I can remember on television.  Unfortunately, I think the videocasting of D3 games by schools is going to take the desire to expense-share television broadcasts off the table going forward.  The schools see the videocasting as a potential revenue generator -- so why spend a thousand or two for a broadcast that is appealing to only a handful on a regional sports network?  (I don't agree with this point, but I've sensed this is an issue by the charging of money for these videocasts on the school websites over the last couple years).  

Garnet, maybe we could put something together for 2009.  Would you be our in-studio talent for pregame and halftime?

[Jonny Utah]

Heres Frank putting words in my mouth again.  Let me be real clear this time since I will actually take more time to write this.

1) Frank: "JU's been defending the tiebreaker, conceivably because Ithaca stands to benefit from the tiebreaker....."

Show me where I ever defended the tiebreaker!  Show me! All I said was this....

"The funny thing is that even though the E8 tie-breaker criteria might not make that much sense, it actually helps them in the sense that better teams who end up 2nd (and third last year) still make it too the playoffs.  Teams from the E8 might not make the playoffs if the most deserving team actually won the pool A bid."

Does that sound like I'm defending the tie-breaker?  I even said that it might not make that much sense!  I'm simply pointing out the fact that it may have helped the E8 last year and might do so this year. 

2) Frank: "JU went ballistic that Pat had Hartwick in there but Ithaca just below the fold."

And did I really go balistic when Pat had Hartwick in there?  Or did you go balistic trying to find more words to put in my mouth. 

"So you think Hartwick is better than Ithaca?"

Wow, that's balistic.  I even explained why I would have Ithaca ranked higher than Hartwick.  And I'm in the majority of what these other pollsters think anyway! 

3) Frank: "JU believes to break the tie, we need to look at the quarter-by-quarter scores of games."

Where did I ever say we needed to look at quarter to quarter scores to break ties?  Show me!  All I said is that you can tell a lot from a team or game or score by actually watching them and analyzing what may have happened in that game.  Nowhere did I ever say tiebreakers should be broken by looking at quarter to quarter scores.

Knowing your background, you reading comprehension must be at a very high level.  I suggest you start using it.  Its seems to me that you have much more of an inferiority regarding the LL than I have a bias towards the E8.  It was you after all you said the E8 looks to be very mediocre after that SJF loss to Hartwick, instead of Hartwick possibly having a good team.

[Frank Rossi]

How about:  What one loss, second place team would have the best chance of a pool C this year?  Obviously we can't know a lot of things outside the league, but would a 9-1 WPI, 8-1 RPI or 8-1 Hobart have the best credentials?  Looking at the schedules and a suuperficial review of the criteria, Hobart looks like they might have the best shot of these three.  I don't know if the one extra game, and win, helps WPI, but both WPI and RPI appear to have non-conference opponents (one or more) that are likely to finish below .500 (for RPI - Utica, possibly Endicott, for WPI - Becker looks most likely, but Worcester St. and UMass Dartmouth are both 3-3 with Curry left among other opponents).  Bart's non-conference is Carnegie Mellon and Dickinson (currently 4 -2  and 3 - 3 respectively).  CMU has at least one win there and Dickinson has the two worst teams in the conference left, so they both look like .500 or better.  If WPI is 9-1, then Bart probably loses to RPI also and isn't regionally ranked at 6-3 (Union could be but then WPI's loss is to a 7-2 RPI).  If Bart beats WPI and loses to RPI, they might have a regionally ranked win vs. Bart (if Bart finishes 7 - 2).  

Well, this is a bit of a nullity because WPI and Hobart still have to play -- so at least one of them is going to have two losses.  Your analysis is correct -- Hobart would likely have at least a slightly better SoS than WPI at the end of the season, although WPI's regional winning percentage would be 0.900 vs. Hobart's 0.875.  Slight enough to cause a review of SoS, I'd guess, if they were to be measured head-to-head and didn't play.  But as I said, they have to play, so there's the decider :-)

I think the E8 is getting a second team in because I think Ithaca is going to beat Cortland.  We don't really know, other than personnel analysis - where I guess Cortland brought a lot back, if the NJAC is a strong conference or has reverted to the eastern mean.  Because of the 9 game conference schedule in the NJAC, the three teams Cortland has beat (by small margins) have non-conference wins agains Bridgewater State, Merchant Marine and Wilkes (1-4 this year).  I also think the MAC is getting a second team in, so if Ithaca beats Cortland and they move Muhlenberg into the East, the LL may very well not get a second team in under any circumstances.  Truth is Bart's ceiling this year is 2nd round at best and they don't appear as good as any of the '04 - '07 teams, so in some ways, a WPI playoff team might be better for the conference, but I won't root for that unless WPI beats Bart. 

If you're predicating the E8 getting a second team based on Ithaca's performance, you've got the cart before the horse -- Ithaca is currently in a better position than SJF and Hartwick, assuming Utica falls below them.  Ithaca wins the E8 AQ outright if SJF loses a league game or if SJF, Hartwick and Ithaca all win their remaining E8 games (based on projected SoS at that point).

I'm not sure why everyone is assuming the MAC gets a second team so far -- Del Val could help make all other MAC teams two-loss teams in the region.  While I agree that a two-loss MAC team is strong, we may have to balance this against a one-loss Hobart/RPI in the LL.  We have a long way to go before the MAC can solidify a second bid, although, again, they are pretty strong from top to bottom.  This one may be interesting.

TGP,  nice mid season review.  Here's where the running game is frustrating.  Blackowski could break tackles and get two tough yards (even though he was only like 5-9, 185), Marlier and Hobaica don't do that.  Beyond that the running game is down by 20 yards from last year, but the O-line was less experienced last year - they returned 4 starters this year.  I have only been able to watch games via webcast (Dickinson, CMU, SU, Union), so its hard to tell, but it seems like the O-line doesn't create holes and the RB's don't pick up extra yards after contact.  One other potential problem is Siravo replacing Spinella at FB.  He is a converted LB.  How was the FB picking up blocks in the Union game?  Maybe its time to put in the 2nd string FB (FY - Fletcher) or 3rd RB (FY - Simon 6', 220lbs) to see what they can do.

Give some credit to Hobaica... he's small and shifty.  I'm surprised we saw so little of him in the second quarter of the Union game.  I've been impressed with him for a majority of the season.

[Garnet]

Frank,

As much as I would like to participate, I really don't think it can be done logistically.  With a three year old and a three month old at home, I don't even make it to the local high school games let alone dring three hours to Schenectady.

Speaking of driving to the Capital District,  I may not be attending the Shoes game this year due to the aforementioned responsibilities.

[redswarm81]

how about this weekend's games?  Susquehanna is improved, this is their first (and last) game at '86 field... do they have a shot at throwing a big wrench in the LL season?

RPI hasn't lost a game coming out of a bye week in quite some time, so it's a real longshot.  Coach King seems to be able to motivate his crew during the break pretty well -- so I think the long travel for Susquehanna, the talent for RPI and the King's history combine here to propel RPI to a victory.  Granted, Susquehanna and Hobart are the best of the 1-loss teams in terms of controlling their own Pool A destinies (although they both need a slight bit of help, with Hobart winning the head-to-head currently against Susquehanna).  So, Susquehanna has a lot to play for Saturday.

I generally agree with Frank's analysis, but I look at Susquehanna and I see a real potential sleeper, so I think the stakes might be even higher than he puts it.  The Merchant Marine game proved that the Sasquatches are well coached and coachable, and furthermore their win over Rochester  (who beat Union and was competitive v. both RPI and Fisher) seems to indicate that they're improving.

[labart96]

TGP,  nice mid season review.  Here's where the running game is frustrating.  Blackowski could break tackles and get two tough yards (even though he was only like 5-9, 185), Marlier and Hobaica don't do that.  Beyond that the running game is down by 20 yards from last year, but the O-line was less experienced last year - they returned 4 starters this year.  I have only been able to watch games via webcast (Dickinson, CMU, SU, Union), so its hard to tell, but it seems like the O-line doesn't create holes and the RB's don't pick up extra yards after contact.  One other potential problem is Siravo replacing Spinella at FB.  He is a converted LB.  How was the FB picking up blocks in the Union game?  Maybe its time to put in the 2nd string FB (FY - Fletcher) or 3rd RB (FY - Simon 6', 220lbs) to see what they can do.

Thx.  TGP thinks PA is the only other person in the LLPP (save for the Rt Rev) that actually reads TGP's 10 mile posts.  k+

[Frank Rossi]

Heres Frank putting words in my mouth again.  Let me be real clear this time since I will actually take more time to write this.

1) Frank: "JU's been defending the tiebreaker, conceivably because Ithaca stands to benefit from the tiebreaker....."

Show me where I ever defended the tiebreaker!  Show me! All I said was this....

"The funny thing is that even though the E8 tie-breaker criteria might not make that much sense, it actually helps them in the sense that better teams who end up 2nd (and third last year) still make it too the playoffs.  Teams from the E8 might not make the playoffs if the most deserving team actually won the pool A bid."

Does that sound like I'm defending the tie-breaker?  I even said that it might not make that much sense!  I'm simply pointing out the fact that it may have helped the E8 last year and might do so this year. 

Yes.  It does.

2) Frank: "JU went ballistic that Pat had Hartwick in there but Ithaca just below the fold."

And did I really go balistic when Pat had Hartwick in there?  Or did you go balistic trying to find more words to put in my mouth.  

"So you think Hartwick is better than Ithaca?"

Wow, that's balistic.  I even explained why I would have Ithaca ranked higher than Hartwick.  And I'm in the majority of what these other pollsters think anyway!  

Perhaps the exchange between you and Pat is in your short-term memory?  That was a little testy, if I remember correctly -- where you were talking about looking at halves of games, etc.?  

3) Frank: "JU believes to break the tie, we need to look at the quarter-by-quarter scores of games."

Where did I ever say we needed to look at quarter to quarter scores to break ties?  Show me!  All I said is that you can tell a lot from a team or game or score by actually watching them and analyzing what may have happened in that game.  Nowhere did I ever say tiebreakers should be broken by looking at quarter to quarter scores.

That entire quarter-by-quarter paragraph I wrote in the post back to Lyco was called HYPERBOLE through SARCASM.  I took your point (that we gotta look at halftime performance to truly understand a game) and stretched it to play on how ridiculous I think the point is at the end of the day.  So, if you prefer, without sarcasm now, you seem to be advocating a half-by-half review of scores (you've alluded to halftimes more than once over the past couple days).  

Knowing your background, you reading comprehension must be at a very high level.  I suggest you start using it.  Its seems to me that you have much more of an inferiority regarding the LL than I have a bias towards the E8.  It was you after all you said the E8 looks to be very mediocre after that SJF loss to Hartwick, instead of Hartwick possibly having a good team.

Well, I appreciate the faith you have in me.  I also said that Hartwick analysis was going to really depend on how they did from that point forward -- and thus, analysis of the E8 as a whole.  The win against Alfred helps Hartwick's resume, no doubt... although I'm not sure that it helps the E8 in the longrun of the season to have Alfred potentially out of playoff contention.  Losses are mounting and two bids are becoming a stretch for the E8.

Anyway, JU, I've been taking you to task here and on the E8 because I think you might have some good arguments somewhere, but you're not using your best support for those arguments -- I don't fully disagree with everything you're saying in all cases, but I cringe sometimes at the Ithaca spin you start putting on everything.  I used to do that with Union, I guess -- and people dinged my credibility because of it (U89 still does, apparently...  Kidding, U89).  I advocate fans taking a step back and looking at the big picture -- and hope you can start doing the same thing here.  And oh, by the way... See next post...

[Frank Rossi]

Thx.  TGP thinks PA is the only other person in the LLPP (save for the Rt Rev) that actually reads TGP's 10 mile posts.  k+

Now that I'm on the mailing list, I'm 2 for 2
---------

By the way, JU...

Look at the post totals... LL BACK IN EFFECT BABY!  Thanks for your help!