FB: Liberty League

['gro]

Even if Hobart ends the season with only 1-2 losses, at this point in the season, it seems like it would be tough to get a pool C bid.  However, a couple-three more games into the season, and the pool of pool C candidates should be much much smaller.  Sure, there is the possibility for an RPI meltdown, but The Rev reckons they look like Pool A material, and so is going on the assumption that they take it all the way.

Shhhhhhhhh, Susquehanna may be this years St. Lawrence. And RPI still has to play Hobunion (see what I did there?).  There's a long road ahead to a pool A bid.

[union89]

Even if Hobart ends the season with only 1-2 losses, at this point in the season, it seems like it would be tough to get a pool C bid.  However, a couple-three more games into the season, and the pool of pool C candidates should be much much smaller.  Sure, there is the possibility for an RPI meltdown, but The Rev reckons they look like Pool A material, and so is going on the assumption that they take it all the way.

Shhhhhhhhh, Susquehanna may be this years St. Lawrence. And RPI still has to play Hobunion (see what I did there?).  There's a long road ahead to a pool A bid.

Still can't touch the infamous........HOBARPI.

U89 kind of likes Uniobart better than Hobunion.

[mattvsmith]

  I'm personally looking forward to seeing them live for the first time this year at Kings Point.  May not tell me much if KP is as they have been historically.  The last two games there the KP QB looked like he had ribeye tied to his body and a pack of wolves chasing him all day.  On second thought, maybe you should fly east to see them play MM each year.  

Going to games at King's Point is a good time.  There are a lot of HWS alumni who show up.  Last time The Rev went to the King's Point game was 2004 when Rev worked for US Airways (then America West).  But now that the rev has to pay his own way, The Rev must "hand select" games to attend.  Sadly, The Rev has made bad picks 2005-2008 and The Rev is disconsolate.

[dlippiel]

Frank,

As much as I would like to participate, I really don't think it can be done logistically.  With a three year old and a three month old at home, I don't even make it to the local high school games let alone dring three hours to Schenectady.

Speaking of driving to the Capital District,  I may not be attending the Shoes game this year due to the aforementioned responsibilities.

No 'gro?   No Garnet?  WTF?!

Roll Call:  Who's actually coming to the Shooz at '86 on 11/1?

dlippiel will be there like a maniac!

[Frank Rossi]

Frank,

As much as I would like to participate, I really don't think it can be done logistically.  With a three year old and a three month old at home, I don't even make it to the local high school games let alone dring three hours to Schenectady.

Speaking of driving to the Capital District,  I may not be attending the Shoes game this year due to the aforementioned responsibilities.

No 'gro?   No Garnet?  WTF?!

Roll Call:  Who's actually coming to the Shooz at '86 on 11/1?

dlippiel will be there like a maniac!

Amen.  At least one person is gonna be there from the LLPP.  Anyone else?

[gordonmann]

And RPI still has to play Hobunion (see what I did there?)

Not Unibart?

[dlippiel]

Top 10

1. Cortland State
2. Delaware Valley
3. RPI
4. Hartwick
5. Ithaca
6. St. John Fisher
7. Hobart
8. Worcester Polytech
9. Kean
10. Rowan

A tough top 10 this week. Hard to move St. John Fisher down after that tough loss. WPI, Kean and Rowan in new at the bottom of the poll, the top four remain unchanged.

dewcrew nice ATE as always. I always look forward to them as well as your poll. WPI #8, Rowan back in, and Hartwick at #4 very interesting. I give WPI alot of credit for their early season success. They have a long way to go but clearly deserve a look! I think it may be time to simmer on my constant bombardment of Wick. I think with their victory over Alfred this past Sat they have showed that they may be....may be for real. I think a few more weeks of W's will convince me that this team will not/would not lose to a Curry in the first round of the NCAA. I think Phelan must just be nasty and we all know about Boltus. Maybe the D has gotton sick of getting railed on every week and is stepping up. Can you imagine Boltus with a D behind him? I also agree with Cortland at #1. I watched the game on Sat and they do look quite impressive in comparison with the rest of the East.

[mattvsmith]

And RPI still has to play Hobunion (see what I did there?)

Not Unibart?

Unibart? Is that anything like a unibrow?

Unibrow--bridging the gap from the Finger Lakes to the Hudson River.

[redswarm81]

TOTD, special attention needs to be paid to the thirteenth, good day for a "slip".

I'm still confused by the tenth.  Thong over garter belt is not the way Frank taught me and the RT.   

[PBR...]

wow....pbr takes a day off and comes back to pages upon pages of debate on teams/playoffs etc...pbr will need an xtra large cup of java before pbr takes on reading all this and catching up....

[Lyco80]

Editor's note:  should say "wait" instead of "what" in previous post.

ATB

The "modify" button (that appears above your own posts) permits you to edit your posts.

I appreciate your approach as a d3 football spectator, but I think you're confusing spectating with prognosticating.  I like watching the games too, but I also occasionally like to analyze the present and gauge how that might affect the future.  In some ways, that's old fashioned too--I bet even some old fashioned coaches look at their upcoming schedules, analyze them based on the results to date, and adjust their practices and game plans accordingly.

Since you're here, what is a Lycoming, anyway?  And It's pronounced "Lie coming?"  Not "Lie combing?"  And is it "LIE coming," or Lie COMing?"

The name is native American in its origins - the largest county by land mass in Pennsylvania.  The pronunciation is sort of like tomato - left up to the speaker.  The folks from New Jersey call it Lie coeming.  Central PA folks will call it Lie cumming.

No matter how you say it the football program has one of the best won-loss records in D-III in the last 3-4 decades.  I should say that speaks for itself regardless of how you choose to say it.

You guys in the LL use slide rules and calculators for your posts.  Me, I'm just a humble poli-sci/history major trying to find some sport in postings about football.

ATB

[Frank Rossi]

Editor's note:  should say "wait" instead of "what" in previous post.

ATB

The "modify" button (that appears above your own posts) permits you to edit your posts.

I appreciate your approach as a d3 football spectator, but I think you're confusing spectating with prognosticating.  I like watching the games too, but I also occasionally like to analyze the present and gauge how that might affect the future.  In some ways, that's old fashioned too--I bet even some old fashioned coaches look at their upcoming schedules, analyze them based on the results to date, and adjust their practices and game plans accordingly.

Since you're here, what is a Lycoming, anyway?  And It's pronounced "Lie coming?"  Not "Lie combing?"  And is it "LIE coming," or Lie COMing?"

The name is native American in its origins - the largest county by land mass in Pennsylvania.  The pronunciation is sort of like tomato - left up to the speaker.  The folks from New Jersey call it Lie coeming.  Central PA folks will call it Lie cumming.

No matter how you say it the football program has one of the best won-loss records in D-III in the last 3-4 decades.  I should say that speaks for itself regardless of how you choose to say it.

You guys in the LL use slide rules and calculators for your posts.  Me, I'm just a humble poli-sci/history major trying to find some sport in postings about football.

ATB

Don't hide behind the Poli. Sci. thing - That was my major, too.  However, the Eco minor might explain a lot to those wondering why I foam numbers at the mouth. 

[Frank Rossi]

Liberty League Playoff Scenarios (As of 10/16/08):

RPI (4-0, 2-0 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SUS, 10/25 @ SLU, 11/1 vs. UNI, 11/8 vs. HOB, 11/15 @ MMA

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  RPI wins if it wins all remaining LL games.  If RPI loses one game, it is not guaranteed the title since RPI still plays against two teams with one LL loss currently (SUS & HOB).  However, there will not be a three-way tie involving RPI in any one-loss RPI scenario (SUS still plays WPI & RPI, HOB still plays WPI & RPI and WPI stil plays HOB and SUS -- no combination allows for 3 one-loss teams if RPI has one loss).  Therefore, we know that RPI can lose one of the following games without risking the LL title:  SLU, MMA or UNI. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two losses would likely cause RPI issues since RPI's schedule has many upper-tiered LL teams (in terms of present standings) yet to come.

Pool C Possibilities:  An 8-1 RPI would likely have a better than 50% chance for a Pool C bid, although SoS may play a role depending on how the rest of the East plays out.  However, the team RPI loses against would need to be a strong team by the end of the season to help ensure a foothold for Pool C consideration.  A 7-2 RPI likely has less than a 20% chance at present time for a Pool C bid.


Hobart (4-1, 2-1 LL)
--------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 @ MMA, 11/1 vs. WPI, 11/8 @ RPI, 11/15 vs. ROC

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  Hobart is still in control of its own destiny since Hobart has already beaten SUS and has yet to play RPI and WPI.  Any loss would put Hobart at peril and likely force it into only a mild chance of a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker at two losses.  If UNI were to remain at two losses, Hobart would be at a disadvantage in such a scenario.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two more losses would likely be a complete elimination, although one more loss would be a virtual elimination -- unless many other scenarios come to fruition.

Pool C Possibilities:  Hobart will likely not be in Pool C contention.  Hobart either wins the LL with an 8-1 record or will have a 7-2 (or worse) record.  A 7-2 Hobart would be hurt by a loss against Union -- while the OOC schedule is decent for Hobart, it will be a tough haul to try to win a Pool C slot in such circumstances.


WPI (5-1, 2-1 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 vs. ROC, 11/1 @ HOB, 11/8 vs. SUS, 11/15 @ SLU

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  WPI needs RPI to lose twice.  There will not be a three-way tie at one loss since WPI still faces both other one-loss teams (HOB & SUS).  Since RPI has already beaten WPI, WPI cannot win a head-to-head tiebreaker at one loss.  Thus, RPI must lose twice.  If WPI loses once more, its chances in a two-loss tiebreaker, if no teams have one or no losses, are indefinite.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely completely with two more losses, although one more loss will make it tough as WPI's success in a two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  WPI could be fighting for a Pool C slot at 9-1 if RPI wins the LL.  This would be one of the strongest winning percentages in all of Division III, especially among teams in Pool C.  While WPI would not be guaranteed a Pool C slot at 9-1, it will likely have a better than 50% chance at one (SoS may hurt their chances, but this will depend on final SoS figures).  At 8-2, WPI is likely not going to be seriously considered for Pool C based on its OOC schedule.


Susquehanna (3-3, 2-1 LL)
-------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ RPI, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 vs. SLU, 11/8 @ WPI, 11/15 vs. UNI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  While Susquehanna still plays RPI, the loss to HOB would prevent a win of the LL if HOB still has one loss at the end of the season (again, no three-way, one-loss tie is possible).  Susquehanna still plays RPI and WPI, meaning that if Susquehanna beats RPI, the HOB/RPI would decide Susquehanna's fate (assuming RPI, HOB and Susquehanna win all other remaining games).  A two-loss Susquehanna   would have some trouble if HOB is in the tiebreaker, since Susquehanna has lost to HOB already.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely eliminated with two more losses, but in peril with one more loss since two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


Union (2-3, 1-2 LL)
-------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SLU, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 @ RPI, 11/8 vs. MMA, 11/15 @ SUS

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  A lot here is needed.  Specifically, Union needs to win all remaining games, forcing SUS to a second loss and RPI to its first loss.  It also needs RPI, HOB and WPI to lose an additional game (still possible since WPI plays HOB and SUS, RPI plays HOB and WPI and HOB plays WPI and RPI).  In fact, if Union beats SUS and RPI, there is a guarantee that no more than ONE team will have one or less LL losses (either RPI, HOB or WPI).  In addition, Union needs ROC to lose once more in the LL and needs to hope that WPI is not the only other two-loss team since WPI beat Union head-to-head (Union could win a 3- or 4-way two-loss tie, even with one of ROC or WPI in the mix).

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


USMMA (2-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ ROC, 10/25 vs. HOB, 11/1 BYE, 11/8 @ UNI, 11/15 vs. RPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  USMMA has a problem since it has lost to two teams above USMMA in the standings already (WPI & SUS).  Well, one of those teams will lose in a head-to-head game.  So, if USMMA wins out, we know that RPI has at least one loss, HOB has at least two losses and either SUS or WPI will have at least two losses (if not both).  So, USMMA needs RPI and the remaining team of SUS or WPI to lose once more -- and needs some help in a two-loss tiebreaker (since there could be two teams that USMMA has lost to in that tiebreaker -- although that isn't definite since either or both could lose a third game).  In other words, even if a two-loss tiebreaker is necessary for the LL title, USMMA still needs help inside that tiebreaker to win.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


Rochester (1-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. MMA, 10/25 @ WPI, 11/1 vs. ALF (NL), 11/8 vs. SLU, 11/15 @ HOB

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Rochester needs the most help out of two-loss teams, since it has already lost to RPI.  Thus, two RPI losses and one more SUS loss woud be necessary since Rochester plays HOB and WPI in the future.  Even in a two-loss tiebreaker, Rochester has trouble since Rochester lost to RPI and SUS earlier in the season. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


St. Lawrence (0-5, 0-2 LL)
--------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ UNI, 10/25 vs. RPI, 11/1 @ SUS, 11/8 @ ROC, 11/15 vs. WPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Like UNI, St. Lawrence still plays a number of teams above it.  If it wins out, SUS and WPI would each have two losses and either RPI or HOB would have a second loss guaranteed based on the head-to-head HOB/RPI game.  St. Lawrence therefore needs RPI or HOB (the winner of that game) to lose once more and needs USMMA to lose a third game.  This way, it could potentially win a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker.  St. Lawrence would lose a head-to-head tie at two losses with Hobart, however.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with five regional losses.

[labart96]

nice work counselor. 

tgp was less optimistic about hobart being "in control of their destiny" in his midseason review, but your facts tell the story. 

basically win out, finish 8-1 or it's ECAC time (assuming they declare themselves eligible) for the Statesmen.

k+

[Jonny Utah]

RT, When is JUs second chance going to come to buy that IBM stock!!!!