FB: Liberty League

[TheGrove]

Liberty League Playoff Scenarios (As of 10/16/08):
Susquehanna (3-3, 2-1 LL)
-------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ RPI, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 vs. SLU, 11/8 @ WPI, 11/15 vs. UNI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  While Susquehanna still plays RPI, the loss to HOB would prevent a win of the LL if HOB still has one loss at the end of the season (again, no three-way, one-loss tie is possible).  Susquehanna still plays RPI and WPI, meaning that if Susquehanna beats RPI, the HOB/RPI would decide Susquehanna's fate (assuming RPI, HOB and Susquehanna win all other remaining games).  A two-loss Susquehanna   would have some trouble if HOB is in the tiebreaker, since Susquehanna has lost to HOB already.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely eliminated with two more losses, but in peril with one more loss since two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.

The Phillies are in the World Series and we're talking playoff scenarios for Susquehanna... the apocalypse is upon us! 

[dewcrew88]

DC will be attending the RPI-Susquehanna tilt on Saturday at 86 Field. Who else will be there?

['gro]

DC will be attending the RPI-Susquehanna tilt on Saturday at 86 Field. Who else will be there?

Gro, Reg, and LD are all in other area codes, your best bet would be RT. I think it's homecoming too.

Speaking of homecoming, back in the day Gro's HS was EVERY schools homecoming game.  Well now the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0 and the top ranked AA team in the section (#11 in the state!). Truly amazing turnaround.  Gro's alma matters are 10-0 and I probably just jinxed the hell out of both of them this weekend.

[dlippiel]

DC will be attending the RPI-Susquehanna tilt on Saturday at 86 Field. Who else will be there?

Gro, Reg, and LD are all in other area codes, your best bet would be RT. I think it's homecoming too.

Speaking of homecoming, back in the day Gro's HS was EVERY schools homecoming game.  Well now the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0 and the top ranked AA team in the section (#11 in the state!). Truly amazing turnaround.  Gro's alma matters are 10-0 and I probably just jinxed the hell out of both of them this weekend.

As a teacher in the Schenectady district I am proud to say the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0, have home field for the playoffs and are ranked 11th in NYS large schools.

[dlippiel]

Liberty League Playoff Scenarios (As of 10/16/08):

RPI (4-0, 2-0 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SUS, 10/25 @ SLU, 11/1 vs. UNI, 11/8 vs. HOB, 11/15 @ MMA

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  RPI wins if it wins all remaining LL games.  If RPI loses one game, it is not guaranteed the title since RPI still plays against two teams with one LL loss currently (SUS & HOB).  However, there will not be a three-way tie involving RPI in any one-loss RPI scenario (SUS still plays WPI & RPI, HOB still plays WPI & RPI and WPI stil plays HOB and SUS -- no combination allows for 3 one-loss teams if RPI has one loss).  Therefore, we know that RPI can lose one of the following games without risking the LL title:  SLU, MMA or UNI. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two losses would likely cause RPI issues since RPI's schedule has many upper-tiered LL teams (in terms of present standings) yet to come.

Pool C Possibilities:  An 8-1 RPI would likely have a better than 50% chance for a Pool C bid, although SoS may play a role depending on how the rest of the East plays out.  However, the team RPI loses against would need to be a strong team by the end of the season to help ensure a foothold for Pool C consideration.  A 7-2 RPI likely has less than a 20% chance at present time for a Pool C bid.


Hobart (4-1, 2-1 LL)
--------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 @ MMA, 11/1 vs. WPI, 11/8 @ RPI, 11/15 vs. ROC

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  Hobart is still in control of its own destiny since Hobart has already beaten SUS and has yet to play RPI and WPI.  Any loss would put Hobart at peril and likely force it into only a mild chance of a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker at two losses.  If UNI were to remain at two losses, Hobart would be at a disadvantage in such a scenario.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two more losses would likely be a complete elimination, although one more loss would be a virtual elimination -- unless many other scenarios come to fruition.

Pool C Possibilities:  Hobart will likely not be in Pool C contention.  Hobart either wins the LL with an 8-1 record or will have a 7-2 (or worse) record.  A 7-2 Hobart would be hurt by a loss against Union -- while the OOC schedule is decent for Hobart, it will be a tough haul to try to win a Pool C slot in such circumstances.


WPI (5-1, 2-1 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 vs. ROC, 11/1 @ HOB, 11/8 vs. SUS, 11/15 @ SLU

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  WPI needs RPI to lose twice.  There will not be a three-way tie at one loss since WPI still faces both other one-loss teams (HOB & SUS).  Since RPI has already beaten WPI, WPI cannot win a head-to-head tiebreaker at one loss.  Thus, RPI must lose twice.  If WPI loses once more, its chances in a two-loss tiebreaker, if no teams have one or no losses, are indefinite.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely completely with two more losses, although one more loss will make it tough as WPI's success in a two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  WPI could be fighting for a Pool C slot at 9-1 if RPI wins the LL.  This would be one of the strongest winning percentages in all of Division III, especially among teams in Pool C.  While WPI would not be guaranteed a Pool C slot at 9-1, it will likely have a better than 50% chance at one (SoS may hurt their chances, but this will depend on final SoS figures).  At 8-2, WPI is likely not going to be seriously considered for Pool C based on its OOC schedule.


Susquehanna (3-3, 2-1 LL)
-------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ RPI, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 vs. SLU, 11/8 @ WPI, 11/15 vs. UNI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  While Susquehanna still plays RPI, the loss to HOB would prevent a win of the LL if HOB still has one loss at the end of the season (again, no three-way, one-loss tie is possible).  Susquehanna still plays RPI and WPI, meaning that if Susquehanna beats RPI, the HOB/RPI would decide Susquehanna's fate (assuming RPI, HOB and Susquehanna win all other remaining games).  A two-loss Susquehanna   would have some trouble if HOB is in the tiebreaker, since Susquehanna has lost to HOB already.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely eliminated with two more losses, but in peril with one more loss since two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


Union (2-3, 1-2 LL)
-------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SLU, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 @ RPI, 11/8 vs. MMA, 11/15 @ SUS

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  A lot here is needed.  Specifically, Union needs to win all remaining games, forcing SUS to a second loss and RPI to its first loss.  It also needs RPI, HOB and WPI to lose an additional game (still possible since WPI plays HOB and SUS, RPI plays HOB and WPI and HOB plays WPI and RPI).  In fact, if Union beats SUS and RPI, there is a guarantee that no more than ONE team will have one or less LL losses (either RPI, HOB or WPI).  In addition, Union needs ROC to lose once more in the LL and needs to hope that WPI is not the only other two-loss team since WPI beat Union head-to-head (Union could win a 3- or 4-way two-loss tie, even with one of ROC or WPI in the mix).

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


USMMA (2-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ ROC, 10/25 vs. HOB, 11/1 BYE, 11/8 @ UNI, 11/15 vs. RPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  USMMA has a problem since it has lost to two teams above USMMA in the standings already (WPI & SUS).  Well, one of those teams will lose in a head-to-head game.  So, if USMMA wins out, we know that RPI has at least one loss, HOB has at least two losses and either SUS or WPI will have at least two losses (if not both).  So, USMMA needs RPI and the remaining team of SUS or WPI to lose once more -- and needs some help in a two-loss tiebreaker (since there could be two teams that USMMA has lost to in that tiebreaker -- although that isn't definite since either or both could lose a third game).  In other words, even if a two-loss tiebreaker is necessary for the LL title, USMMA still needs help inside that tiebreaker to win.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


Rochester (1-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. MMA, 10/25 @ WPI, 11/1 vs. ALF (NL), 11/8 vs. SLU, 11/15 @ HOB

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Rochester needs the most help out of two-loss teams, since it has already lost to RPI.  Thus, two RPI losses and one more SUS loss woud be necessary since Rochester plays HOB and WPI in the future.  Even in a two-loss tiebreaker, Rochester has trouble since Rochester lost to RPI and SUS earlier in the season. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


St. Lawrence (0-5, 0-2 LL)
--------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ UNI, 10/25 vs. RPI, 11/1 @ SUS, 11/8 @ ROC, 11/15 vs. WPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Like UNI, St. Lawrence still plays a number of teams above it.  If it wins out, SUS and WPI would each have two losses and either RPI or HOB would have a second loss guaranteed based on the head-to-head HOB/RPI game.  St. Lawrence therefore needs RPI or HOB (the winner of that game) to lose once more and needs USMMA to lose a third game.  This way, it could potentially win a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker.  St. Lawrence would lose a head-to-head tie at two losses with Hobart, however.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with five regional losses.

Nice Frank!

[union89]

DC will be attending the RPI-Susquehanna tilt on Saturday at 86 Field. Who else will be there?

Gro, Reg, and LD are all in other area codes, your best bet would be RT. I think it's homecoming too.

Speaking of homecoming, back in the day Gro's HS was EVERY schools homecoming game.  Well now the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0 and the top ranked AA team in the section (#11 in the state!). Truly amazing turnaround.  Gro's alma matters are 10-0 and I probably just jinxed the hell out of both of them this weekend.

As a teacher in the Schenectady district I am proud to say the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0, have home field for the playoffs and are ranked 11th in NYS large schools.

Go, 'Doids......Go!!!!

Sorry couldn't help it (keep in mind, U89 grew up in Worcester, so he is a 'Doid to kids from WPI, Holy Cross, Assumption, Clark, Worcester State, etc.)

[Reno Hightower]

Liberty League Playoff Scenarios (As of 10/16/08):

RPI (4-0, 2-0 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SUS, 10/25 @ SLU, 11/1 vs. UNI, 11/8 vs. HOB, 11/15 @ MMA

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  RPI wins if it wins all remaining LL games.  If RPI loses one game, it is not guaranteed the title since RPI still plays against two teams with one LL loss currently (SUS & HOB).  However, there will not be a three-way tie involving RPI in any one-loss RPI scenario (SUS still plays WPI & RPI, HOB still plays WPI & RPI and WPI stil plays HOB and SUS -- no combination allows for 3 one-loss teams if RPI has one loss).  Therefore, we know that RPI can lose one of the following games without risking the LL title:  SLU, MMA or UNI. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two losses would likely cause RPI issues since RPI's schedule has many upper-tiered LL teams (in terms of present standings) yet to come.

Pool C Possibilities:  An 8-1 RPI would likely have a better than 50% chance for a Pool C bid, although SoS may play a role depending on how the rest of the East plays out.  However, the team RPI loses against would need to be a strong team by the end of the season to help ensure a foothold for Pool C consideration.  A 7-2 RPI likely has less than a 20% chance at present time for a Pool C bid.


Hobart (4-1, 2-1 LL)
--------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 @ MMA, 11/1 vs. WPI, 11/8 @ RPI, 11/15 vs. ROC

In Control of Own Destiny?:  Yes.

Would Win the LL IF:  Hobart is still in control of its own destiny since Hobart has already beaten SUS and has yet to play RPI and WPI.  Any loss would put Hobart at peril and likely force it into only a mild chance of a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker at two losses.  If UNI were to remain at two losses, Hobart would be at a disadvantage in such a scenario.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Two more losses would likely be a complete elimination, although one more loss would be a virtual elimination -- unless many other scenarios come to fruition.

Pool C Possibilities:  Hobart will likely not be in Pool C contention.  Hobart either wins the LL with an 8-1 record or will have a 7-2 (or worse) record.  A 7-2 Hobart would be hurt by a loss against Union -- while the OOC schedule is decent for Hobart, it will be a tough haul to try to win a Pool C slot in such circumstances.


WPI (5-1, 2-1 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 BYE, 10/25 vs. ROC, 11/1 @ HOB, 11/8 vs. SUS, 11/15 @ SLU

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  WPI needs RPI to lose twice.  There will not be a three-way tie at one loss since WPI still faces both other one-loss teams (HOB & SUS).  Since RPI has already beaten WPI, WPI cannot win a head-to-head tiebreaker at one loss.  Thus, RPI must lose twice.  If WPI loses once more, its chances in a two-loss tiebreaker, if no teams have one or no losses, are indefinite.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely completely with two more losses, although one more loss will make it tough as WPI's success in a two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  WPI could be fighting for a Pool C slot at 9-1 if RPI wins the LL.  This would be one of the strongest winning percentages in all of Division III, especially among teams in Pool C.  While WPI would not be guaranteed a Pool C slot at 9-1, it will likely have a better than 50% chance at one (SoS may hurt their chances, but this will depend on final SoS figures).  At 8-2, WPI is likely not going to be seriously considered for Pool C based on its OOC schedule.


Susquehanna (3-3, 2-1 LL)
-------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ RPI, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 vs. SLU, 11/8 @ WPI, 11/15 vs. UNI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  While Susquehanna still plays RPI, the loss to HOB would prevent a win of the LL if HOB still has one loss at the end of the season (again, no three-way, one-loss tie is possible).  Susquehanna still plays RPI and WPI, meaning that if Susquehanna beats RPI, the HOB/RPI would decide Susquehanna's fate (assuming RPI, HOB and Susquehanna win all other remaining games).  A two-loss Susquehanna   would have some trouble if HOB is in the tiebreaker, since Susquehanna has lost to HOB already.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely eliminated with two more losses, but in peril with one more loss since two-loss tiebreaker is indefinite.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


Union (2-3, 1-2 LL)
-------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. SLU, 10/25 BYE, 11/1 @ RPI, 11/8 vs. MMA, 11/15 @ SUS

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  A lot here is needed.  Specifically, Union needs to win all remaining games, forcing SUS to a second loss and RPI to its first loss.  It also needs RPI, HOB and WPI to lose an additional game (still possible since WPI plays HOB and SUS, RPI plays HOB and WPI and HOB plays WPI and RPI).  In fact, if Union beats SUS and RPI, there is a guarantee that no more than ONE team will have one or less LL losses (either RPI, HOB or WPI).  In addition, Union needs ROC to lose once more in the LL and needs to hope that WPI is not the only other two-loss team since WPI beat Union head-to-head (Union could win a 3- or 4-way two-loss tie, even with one of ROC or WPI in the mix).

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None at this time, with three regional losses.


USMMA (2-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ ROC, 10/25 vs. HOB, 11/1 BYE, 11/8 @ UNI, 11/15 vs. RPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  USMMA has a problem since it has lost to two teams above USMMA in the standings already (WPI & SUS).  Well, one of those teams will lose in a head-to-head game.  So, if USMMA wins out, we know that RPI has at least one loss, HOB has at least two losses and either SUS or WPI will have at least two losses (if not both).  So, USMMA needs RPI and the remaining team of SUS or WPI to lose once more -- and needs some help in a two-loss tiebreaker (since there could be two teams that USMMA has lost to in that tiebreaker -- although that isn't definite since either or both could lose a third game).  In other words, even if a two-loss tiebreaker is necessary for the LL title, USMMA still needs help inside that tiebreaker to win.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


Rochester (1-4, 1-2 LL)
-----------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 vs. MMA, 10/25 @ WPI, 11/1 vs. ALF (NL), 11/8 vs. SLU, 11/15 @ HOB

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Rochester needs the most help out of two-loss teams, since it has already lost to RPI.  Thus, two RPI losses and one more SUS loss woud be necessary since Rochester plays HOB and WPI in the future.  Even in a two-loss tiebreaker, Rochester has trouble since Rochester lost to RPI and SUS earlier in the season. 

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more league loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with four regional losses.


St. Lawrence (0-5, 0-2 LL)
--------------------------
Remaining Schedule:  10/18 @ UNI, 10/25 vs. RPI, 11/1 @ SUS, 11/8 @ ROC, 11/15 vs. WPI

In Control of Own Destiny?:  No.

Would Win the LL IF:  Like UNI, St. Lawrence still plays a number of teams above it.  If it wins out, SUS and WPI would each have two losses and either RPI or HOB would have a second loss guaranteed based on the head-to-head HOB/RPI game.  St. Lawrence therefore needs RPI or HOB (the winner of that game) to lose once more and needs USMMA to lose a third game.  This way, it could potentially win a 3- or 4-way tiebreaker.  St. Lawrence would lose a head-to-head tie at two losses with Hobart, however.

Would Be Eliminated IF:  Likely with one more loss.

Pool C Possibilities:  None, with five regional losses.

Nice Frank!

Frank you do good work my man!

[Frank Rossi]

Thanks for the compliments, guys.  One thing that jumped out at me is that there cannot be a three-way, one-loss tie this year.  This will give us some level of ease, assuming the unexpected doesn't happen, to determine who wins the AQ under each scenario as more games get played.

The only Pool C potential teams are the Engineers, both RPI and WPI.  Hobart would be a large longshot at 7-2 (this is where that Alfred game would've come in handy this year -- an insurance policy would've helped for an 8-2 record).

['gro]

DC will be attending the RPI-Susquehanna tilt on Saturday at 86 Field. Who else will be there?

Gro, Reg, and LD are all in other area codes, your best bet would be RT. I think it's homecoming too.

Speaking of homecoming, back in the day Gro's HS was EVERY schools homecoming game.  Well now the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0 and the top ranked AA team in the section (#11 in the state!). Truly amazing turnaround.  Gro's alma matters are 10-0 and I probably just jinxed the hell out of both of them this weekend.

As a teacher in the Schenectady district I am proud to say the Schenectady Patriots are 6-0, have home field for the playoffs and are ranked 11th in NYS large schools.

Go, 'Doids......Go!!!!

Sorry couldn't help it (keep in mind, U89 grew up in Worcester, so he is a 'Doid to kids from WPI, Holy Cross, Assumption, Clark, Worcester State, etc.)

This 'doid was never fond of the Troylets, so I guess it all evens out.

[union89]

Man.....the D-Rays are rediculas!!!

Sox are sucking, but the Rays are taking advantage of every mistake AND creating their own.....amazing performance for a very young team so far......('so far' is wishful thinking for U89 as it's 5-0 in the 3rd).

[redswarm81]

Thanks for the compliments, guys.  One thing that jumped out at me is that there cannot be a three-way, one-loss tie this year.  This will give us some level of ease, assuming the unexpected doesn't happen, to determine who wins the AQ under each scenario as more games get played.

The only Pool C potential teams are the Engineers, both RPI and WPI.  Hobart would be a large longshot at 7-2 (this is where that Alfred game would've come in handy this year -- an insurance policy would've helped for an 8-2 record).

I'm still dying to know who's going to make that NCAA regional top ten list. . . . but I don't think they come out until what--after two more Saturdays?  Thinking out loud here, . . . if RPI beats SUS and the Larries, they're 6-0 and surely ranked.  If WPI beats SchoolofRoch and loses to Hobart, then WPI is 6-2, and maybe-but-not-surely ranked, while Hobart is 6-1 and more likely ranked.  If Hobart then lost to the Originaleers, they'd be 6-2, hoping that WPI is ranked so that the Pumpkinheads get the bonus points for beating a ranked team.

Since as near as I can tell, only the supersecret final rankings matter for playoff selection, so in the above scenario, Hobart would really be pulling for WPI to win out, to finish 8-2, and likely ranked--but that's a potentially self-defeating proposition, since an 8-2 WPI would have a higher in-region winning pct than Hobart, although Hobart would have the head-to-head result, . . .

Such confusion--who says the E8 has all the fun?

[gordonmann]

Frank, I can't give you +k twice in 24 hours, but you freakin' rock.

[Pat Coleman]

The regional rankings come out after Week 8.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank, I can't give you +k twice in 24 hours, but you freakin' rock.

Well, you can gimme a high five in Salem in a couple months -- that'll be worth more than a +k in my book

[Frank Rossi]

Thanks for the compliments, guys.  One thing that jumped out at me is that there cannot be a three-way, one-loss tie this year.  This will give us some level of ease, assuming the unexpected doesn't happen, to determine who wins the AQ under each scenario as more games get played.

The only Pool C potential teams are the Engineers, both RPI and WPI.  Hobart would be a large longshot at 7-2 (this is where that Alfred game would've come in handy this year -- an insurance policy would've helped for an 8-2 record).

I'm still dying to know who's going to make that NCAA regional top ten list. . . . but I don't think they come out until what--after two more Saturdays?  Thinking out loud here, . . . if RPI beats SUS and the Larries, they're 6-0 and surely ranked.  If WPI beats SchoolofRoch and loses to Hobart, then WPI is 6-2, and maybe-but-not-surely ranked, while Hobart is 6-1 and more likely ranked.  If Hobart then lost to the Originaleers, they'd be 6-2, hoping that WPI is ranked so that the Pumpkinheads get the bonus points for beating a ranked team.

Since as near as I can tell, only the supersecret final rankings matter for playoff selection, so in the above scenario, Hobart would really be pulling for WPI to win out, to finish 8-2, and likely ranked--but that's a potentially self-defeating proposition, since an 8-2 WPI would have a higher in-region winning pct than Hobart, although Hobart would have the head-to-head result, . . .

Such confusion--who says the E8 has all the fun?

There's no way WPI gets ranked with two losses.  Their SoS is an issue at that point moreso than ever.