FB: Liberty League

Frank Rossi · November 12, 2008, 01:22:28 PM

Final Regional Rankings:

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1
3. Montclair State 8-1 8-1
4. Hobart 7-1 7-1
5. RPI 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth State 8-1 9-1
8. Rowan 7-2 7-2
9. Curry 8-1 9-1
10. Albright 6-1 7-2

North Region
1. Mount Union 8-0 9-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 9-0 9-0
3. Wabash 8-0 9-0
4. Trine 9-0 9-0
5. Case Western Reserve 8-0 9-0
6. Otterbein 8-1 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1 8-1
8. Wooster 5-2 7-2
9. Elmhurst 7-2 7-2
10. Aurora 8-1 8-1

South Region
1. Millsaps 8-0 9-0
2. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 9-1 9-1
5. Catholic 7-1 8-1
6. Hampden-Sydney 7-1 8-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 7-1 8-1
8. Wesley 3-1 7-1
9. Huntingdon 7-1 8-1
10. Christopher Newport 6-1 7-1

West Region
1. Willamette 8-0 9-0
2. Occidental 8-0 8-0
3. Monmouth 10-0 10-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 5-1 8-1
5. UW-Whitewater 7-1 8-1
6. Redlands 7-1 7-1
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1
8. St. John's 7-2 7-2
9. Wartburg 8-2 8-2
10. Carleton 7-2 7-2

Reno Hightower · November 12, 2008, 01:27:05 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2008, 01:22:28 PM
Final Regional Rankings:

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1
3. Montclair State 8-1 8-1
4. Hobart 7-1 7-1
5. RPI 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth State 8-1 9-1
8. Rowan 7-2 7-2
9. Curry 8-1 9-1
10. Albright 6-1 7-2

North Region
1. Mount Union 8-0 9-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 9-0 9-0
3. Wabash 8-0 9-0
4. Trine 9-0 9-0
5. Case Western Reserve 8-0 9-0
6. Otterbein 8-1 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1 8-1
8. Wooster 5-2 7-2
9. Elmhurst 7-2 7-2
10. Aurora 8-1 8-1

South Region
1. Millsaps 8-0 9-0
2. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 9-1 9-1
5. Catholic 7-1 8-1
6. Hampden-Sydney 7-1 8-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 7-1 8-1
8. Wesley 3-1 7-1
9. Huntingdon 7-1 8-1
10. Christopher Newport 6-1 7-1

West Region
1. Willamette 8-0 9-0
2. Occidental 8-0 8-0
3. Monmouth 10-0 10-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 5-1 8-1
5. UW-Whitewater 7-1 8-1
6. Redlands 7-1 7-1
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1
8. St. John's 7-2 7-2
9. Wartburg 8-2 8-2
10. Carleton 7-2 7-2

It will be very interesting to see how the East shakes out. There are 2 matchups in the 1st round in these that they wouldnt want! And then if you move MU over the logical 8 would be Plymouth but that is 700 something miles so you cant do that! Maybe the Mules come over as the 1 with Plymouth as the 8?
Still dont see how 3 E8/LL Teams dont make it. Id think 1 pool c from those 2 leagues combined would be a given.

redswarm81 · November 12, 2008, 01:31:57 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2008, 01:22:28 PM
Final Regional Rankings:

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1
3. Montclair State 8-1 8-1
4. Hobart 7-1 7-1
5. RPI 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth State 8-1 9-1
8. Rowan 7-2 7-2
9. Curry 8-1 9-1
10. Albright 6-1 7-2

Wow. I guess Husson IS a two-loss team.

But a different two-loss team than Hartwick. Or Rowan. Or Albright.

Reno Hightower · November 12, 2008, 01:32:58 PM

Quote from: Reno Hightower on November 12, 2008, 01:27:05 PM
Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2008, 01:22:28 PM
Final Regional Rankings:

East Region
1. Cortland State 9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca 7-1 8-1
3. Montclair State 8-1 8-1
4. Hobart 7-1 7-1
5. RPI 7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick 6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth State 8-1 9-1
8. Rowan 7-2 7-2
9. Curry 8-1 9-1
10. Albright 6-1 7-2

North Region
1. Mount Union 8-0 9-0
2. North Central (Ill.) 9-0 9-0
3. Wabash 8-0 9-0
4. Trine 9-0 9-0
5. Case Western Reserve 8-0 9-0
6. Otterbein 8-1 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1 8-1
8. Wooster 5-2 7-2
9. Elmhurst 7-2 7-2
10. Aurora 8-1 8-1

South Region
1. Millsaps 8-0 9-0
2. Muhlenberg 9-0 9-0
3. Mary Hardin-Baylor 7-0 8-1
4. Hardin-Simmons 9-1 9-1
5. Catholic 7-1 8-1
6. Hampden-Sydney 7-1 8-1
7. Washington and Jefferson 7-1 8-1
8. Wesley 3-1 7-1
9. Huntingdon 7-1 8-1
10. Christopher Newport 6-1 7-1

West Region
1. Willamette 8-0 9-0
2. Occidental 8-0 8-0
3. Monmouth 10-0 10-0
4. UW-Stevens Point 5-1 8-1
5. UW-Whitewater 7-1 8-1
6. Redlands 7-1 7-1
7. Northwestern (Minn.) 8-1 8-1
8. St. John's 7-2 7-2
9. Wartburg 8-2 8-2
10. Carleton 7-2 7-2

It will be very interesting to see how the East shakes out. There are 2 matchups in the 1st round in these that they wouldnt want! And then if you move MU over the logical 8 would be Plymouth but that is 700 something miles so you cant do that! Maybe the Mules come over as the 1 with Plymouth as the 8?
Still dont see how 3 E8/LL Teams dont make it. Id think 1 pool c from those 2 leagues combined would be a given.

Though if it is true about Curry, and Union wins and gets an ECAC I now see it being against Alfred or Hartwick as opposed to Curry or Husson.
Which will make U89 happy!

lewdogg11 · November 12, 2008, 01:41:03 PM

The more I think about, RPI has a really decent shot to get a playoff bid, pending they take care of business this week. Having 1 loss and it being to the, most likely, conference champion, with an 8-1 record, by 3 with a last second field goal should be enough to get invited. Yes, their schedule sucks, however they have outscored opponents 246-106, averaging 30.75ppg vs. 13.25ppg. They HAVE won in the fashion expected, and that should not be overlooked. They should definately be on the fence regardless and then....

I think it all comes down to what Ithaca does this week. RPI still could get in with an Ithaca win, BUT, an Ithaca loss gives them 2 losses, 1 being to their eventual conference champ in big fashion(37-6) who has 3 losses. The other comes from an undefeated Cortland. Of course HOW Ithaca loses could be a giant factor as well.

That being said, it will be interesting. It's disheartening that once again RPI has put their future in the hands of a committee, rather than taking care of business last week, and/or having a slightly more challenging schedule. And even if they DO get the bid, they might just be rewarded with the likes of Mount Union...Hoo Haaa

'gro · November 12, 2008, 02:15:44 PM

Gro thinks that if Cortland wins they should get a #1 seed. Gro has no issues shipping Mount Union east either, it makes geographical sense... but not if Cortland is 10-0. Muhlenburg is another option but I don't think they beat out Cortland either... They out there with some teams very far away (MS, TX). Ship them east, as a #2... or bring in Case Western as a high (home game) seed.

Cortaca affects many teams this weekend.

Knightstalker · November 12, 2008, 03:10:29 PM

Quote from: 'gro on November 12, 2008, 02:15:44 PM
Gro thinks that if Cortland wins they should get a #1 seed. Gro has no issues shipping Mount Union east either, it makes geographical sense... but not if Cortland is 10-0. Muhlenburg is another option but I don't think they beat out Cortland either... They out there with some teams very far away (MS, TX). Ship them east, as a #2... or bring in Case Western as a high (home game) seed.

Cortaca affects many teams this weekend.

Cortland loses the East turns into one big mess with a team imported. Cortland wins, possibly Muhlenberg comes in as number 2 and the rest works out nicely. As an NJAC fan KS would like to see Cortland win, as an East fan KS would love to see an Ithaca win and sit back and watch the fun and bitching about the selections. Either way, with no team to root for in foosball, KS wins.

stimulator · November 12, 2008, 03:30:35 PM

Much of what you said was similar to my earlier sentiments.

QuoteAnd even if they DO get the bid, they might just be rewarded with the likes of Mount Union...Hoo Haaa

Spoke to one of the team members of RPI (close relative

) re: MUC and a first round matchup and their response was that it would be a treat to play the best.

Certainly w/o Savasli, Fil and their starting OT it would be a stretch to think they might win. However the chance to play the best and see how you match up as a team and as an individual brings out the competitive juices.

In a brief career you may never get the chance to play the #1. So win or lose, round one loss or not, interesting to hear the desire to get on the field with the best

Frank Rossi · November 12, 2008, 03:31:59 PM

This is an analysis of the state of affairs if Pool C were being picked today. In order to perform this analysis, we must first square away some Pool A and Pool B issues.

Pool A Issues
-------------

As you know, Pool A represents 23 slots. Currently, 14 of these slots have been determined (courtesy Pat Coleman's post on the Daily Dose):

ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor
CC: Muhlenberg
CCIW: North Central
HCAC: Franklin
IIAC: Wartburg
MIAA: Trine
MWC: Monmouth
NCAC: Wabash
NJAC: Cortland State
NWC: Willamette
OAC: Mount Union
PAC: Thomas More
SCIAC: Occidental
SCAC: Millsaps

Only one of these teams (Thomas More) does not appear in the present NCAA Regional Rankings. This weekend, the remaining nine slots will be filled this weekend. Here is an analysis of those races (courtesy Ralph Turner in response to Pat Coleman's post):

E8 — SJF (4-1) must beat Alfred (3-2) to get the co-championship and the Pool A bid over Ithaca (5-1) which plays Cortland St.

LL — Hobart (5-1) must beat Rochester (3-3) to clinch the AQ. RPI (5-1) earns a co-championship with a win over Merchant Marine (1-5).

MAC — Albright (5-1) can clinch with a win over Del Valley (4-2). LebValley (4-2) and Lycoming (4-2) also play.

MIAC — Carleton (5-2) at SJU (5-2) for the outright title and Pool A bid.

NATHC — Aurora (6-0) hosts Lakeland (5-1) for the Pool A bid.

NEFC — Plymouth State at Maine Maritime in the NEFC Bowl.

ODAC — Catholic (4-1) hosts Bridgewater (2-3). A win gives them the AQ. H-SC (4-1) goes to Randolph-Macon (3-2).

USASouth — CNU (6-0) hosts Ferrum (5-1) for the AQ.

WIAC — UWSP (5-1) hosts UW-Lacrosse (3-3) to clinch the AQ. UW-Whitewater (5-1) is at Platteville (2-4).

From this list when cross-referenced with the new Rankings, there are only FOUR cases in which a present Pool C likely candidate could be converted into a Pool A winner:

1) Ithaca (SJF would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if SJF loses);
2) RPI (Hobart would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if Hobart loses);
3) Hampden-Sydney (Catholic would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if Catholic loses); and
4) UW-Whitewater (UW-Stevens Point COULD replace it as a Pool C candidate with a loss, although it would be a stretch).

Keep those scenarios in mind for later in this post.

Pool B Issues
-------------

Now, let's look at Pool B. The likely choices for the three Pool B bids are:

1) Case Western Reserve (8-0 Regional, 9-0 Overall);
2) Wesley (3-1 Regional, 7-1 Overall); and
3) EITHER the winner of Huntingdon/LaGrange (H is 7-1 Regional, 8-1 Overall while L is 7-0 Regional, 8-1 Overall) OR Northwestern (Minn.) (8-1 Regional, 8-1 Overall).

I'll comment more on the Pool B third slot later only if it plays a role in the analysis.

How Pool C Works
------------------

So, now, let's look at how Pool C works. There are six slots this year in Pool C. The process generally utilized by the Selection Committe is to rank the Pool C nominees in each Region against the others in that Region before matching up the top Pool C seed in each of the four Regions. The Committee will take the top team out of the four being reviewed, place it in Pool C and replace that team with the next highest seed in that Region's Pool C seedings. This repeats until all six teams are selected.

Using this week's Regional Rankings, here is the likely seeding of each region's Pool C nominees:

East:

1) Ithaca, 2) Montclair, 3) RPI, 4) Hartwick, 5) Rowan and 6) Curry

North:

1) Otterbein, 2) Wooster and 3) Elmhurst

South:

1) Hardin-Simmons, 2) Hampden-Sydney, 3) Wash. & Jeff. and 4) The Winner of LaGrange/Huntingdon if not chosen for Pool C

West:

1) UW-Whitewater, 2) Redlands and 3) Northwestern (Minn.) if not chosen for Pool C

Pool C Selection
---------------

Now it is time to go through the six rounds for Pool C selection:

Round 1
--------
(Note: Opp. W/L is the regional W/L record of the final opponent for that team, since these numbers have yet to be figured into the team's OWP)

Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca East 7-1 8-1 .540 .544 9-0
Otterbein North 8-1 8-1 .465 .545 5-4
Hardin-Simmons South 9-1 9-1 .511 .512 ---
UW-Whitewater West 7-1 8-1 .509 .568 4-4

Remember that for these purposes, we are assuming all teams considered will win this Saturday. At this point, the likelihood is that since Otterbein's only loss was to Mount Union this season, it will likely receive the first Pool C bid. We will award Otterbein and replace it with Wooster.

Round 2
--------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca East 7-1 8-1 .540 .544 9-0
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Hardin-Simmons South 9-1 9-1 .511 .512 ---
UW-Whitewater West 7-1 8-1 .509 .568 4-4

This appears to be a pretty close call between Ithaca, Hardin-Simmons and UW-Whitewater. Each of these teams have the teams representing each of their only losses already in the tournament via Pool A. In this situation, my belief is that UW-Whitewater, because of its defending National Champion status, is selected at this stage. We will roll Redlands into UW-Whitewater's slot.

Round 3
--------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca East 7-1 8-1 .540 .544 9-0
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Hardin-Simmons South 9-1 9-1 .511 .512 ---
Redlands West 7-1 7-1 .464 .489 6-2

The two teams that jump out are the two remaining from our discussion in Round 2: Ithaca and Hardin-Simmons. Ithaca would have had a quality win vs. Cortland that will raise its OWP above .560 (although this could change based on prior opponents' results). The numbers and quality win place Ithaca easily into this slot. Let's roll Montclair St. into Ithaca's spot.

Round 4
--------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St. East 8-1 8-1 .474 .535 6-3
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Hardin-Simmons South 9-1 9-1 .511 .512 ---
Redlands West 7-1 7-1 .464 .489 6-2

Hardin-Simmons should win in this scenario based on its one-loss status and decent OWP and OOWP numbers. Wooster's second loss and OOWP don't allow it to be picked at this stage, even though both of its losses came against undefeated teams (inflating its OWP already). Roll out Hardin-Simmons and roll in Hampden-Sydney.

Round 5
--------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St. East 8-1 8-1 .474 .535 6-3
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Hampden-Sydney South 7-1 8-1 .616 .514 4-3
Redlands West 7-1 7-1 .464 .489 6-2

Hampden-Sydney's OWP will remain pretty stable, so this is a problem scenario for Montclair St. in a comparison. Wooster's problem is still that the OWP of the teams it actually beat is low, so I can't see Wooster selected here. Therefore, I have to give the nod to Hampden-Sydney at this point and roll Washington & Jefferson into its slot.

Round 6
--------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St. East 8-1 8-1 .474 .535 6-3
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Wash. & Jeff. South 7-1 8-1 .377 .516 3-4
Redlands West 7-1 7-1 .464 .489 6-2

Each of these teams has some issues we must look at. First, Montclair's OWP is not the strongest on the board. However, this week's game against Kean will help propel it closer to .500. Wooster's second loss and artificial OWP (call this subjective, or call it common sense to give only partial weight to two losses to undefeated teams) with a pretty low OOWP does not help it still. Wash. & Jeff. is looking pretty ugly at a .377 OWP (which won't improve much this weekend, if at all). This is the lowest OWP we have seen so far. Finally, Redlands will have numbers competitive to Montclair -- however, there are two problems. First, the OOWP numbers will be below Montclair's numbers no matter what. Second, there may be eight West Bracket teams already at this point. A ninth West team would force a flight for every round that a "shipping" school would remain in the playoffs. From my discussion with Mr. Kaiser, it seems like this year, more than any other, this could be an issue. For these reasons, I believe Montclair gets selected in this round. I will roll RPI into its slot for comparison's sake, as I know that question is forthcoming.

Final State of the Board
-----------------------
Reg. All Opp.
Team Region W/L W/L OWP OOWP W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
RPI East 7-1 7-1 .495 .526 2-7
Wooster North 6-2 7-2 .584 .473 5-2
Wash. & Jeff. South 7-1 8-1 .377 .516 3-4
Redlands West 7-1 7-1 .464 .489 6-2

Note that out of these teams, the only one with a respectable out-of-conference win is Redlands (over 6-3 Whitworth). Looking at the numbers and based on previous discussions in this post, I believe that RPI would be the 33rd team (i.e., the best team not selected) if there are no upsets this weekend involving the teams selected ahead of them or the vulnerable Pool A teams in those same teams' conferences.

As a review, the six Pool C teams at this time appear to be:

1) Otterbein, 2) UW-Whitewater, 3) Ithaca, 4) Hardin-Simmons, 5) Hampden-Sydney and 6) Montclair St.

What RPI Needs to Happen
--------------------------
RPI would stand a very decent chance of making the NCAA Playoffs if any of these scenarios occurred this weekend (or virtually a 100% chance if two or more occurred), assuming Hobart and RPI both win:

1) Cortland beats Ithaca (Ithaca removed from Pool C with loss);
2) Alfred beats St. John Fisher (Ithaca removed from Pool C with Pool A win);
3) John Carroll beats Otterbein (Otterbein removed from Pool C with loss);
4) UW-Platteville beats UW-Whitewater (UW-Whtiewater removed from Pool C with loss);
5) UW-La Crosse beats UW-Stevens Point (UW-Whitewater removed from Pool C with Pool A win)*;
6) Randolph-Macon beats Hampden-Sydney (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with loss);
7) Kean beats Montclair St. (Montclair St. removed from Pool C with loss); or
8) Bridgewater (Va.) beats Catholic (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with Pool A win).

* - UW-Steven's Point COULD be considered with two losses for Pool C, although their selection would be unlikely.

Again, for safety, RPI needs to root for at least TWO of these scenarios. If one occurs, there is a possibility for a subjective or objective analysis to knock it out of the Pool C debate when it finally reaches the board (i.e., after Ithaca and/or Montclair are picked to allow for RPI discussions).

Frank Rossi · November 12, 2008, 03:38:41 PM

From Steve Bamford, Director of the ECAC Football Championships -- Both MIT and Curry have withdrawn their proposals for further ECAC Championship consideration.

'gro · November 12, 2008, 03:42:07 PM

damn Frank, I feel like I owe you a consulting fee for reading that. Hey, next time your in Troy on a Friday night, go to the Ruck and have some of the free wings, gro will gladly pay the $0 for you to eat delicious ruck wings.

good work, Rooting for all 8 scenarios.

Reno Hightower · November 12, 2008, 03:43:45 PM

Good thing we had 15 pages of Union vs Curry ECAC discussion!

Frank Rossi · November 12, 2008, 03:55:33 PM

ECAC Northeast/Northwest Declared Teams (Final - pending late entries):

Conf Div
School W-L W-L
-------------------------
Husson 0-0 7-0 (B)
Ithaca 5-1 8-1 (A)
Hobart 5-1 7-1 A
RPI 5-1 7-1 (A)
Hartwick 3-2 6-2
St. John Fisher 4-1 6-3 A
Alfred 3-2 6-3
Worcester Poly. 3-3 6-3
Union 3-3 4-4
SUNY-Maritime 0-0 4-5

A - Team leads for Pool A bid in their conference
(A) - Team still has reasonable Pool A chance
(B) - Team still has reasonable Pool B chance

Now, in an interesting twist, Union has a problem. Assuming that the 12th game rule is accurate (eliminating Plymouth State, as I have already done here), Union may not be able to play in an ECAC game if it wins because there wouldn't be a sixth opponent available. There are 10 teams represented above. If 4 of them are awarded NCAA slots, there would leave 6 teams, BUT SUNY-MARITIME IS NOT ELIGIBLE based on its lower-than-.500 record:

"4. A team must compile either an overall or divisional record of .500 or better."

(From the ECAC Championships Manual)

Since Union will finish with the worst record of eligible teams with a win, the team must hope for an even number of declarants after NCAA teams are selected. This can happen if:

1) Three of RPI, Ithaca, SJF, Husson and Hobart go to the NCAAs;

2) All five of those teams go to the NCAAs;

3) A new team performs a late declaration (costing $500), assuming two or four of the teams from option 1 go to the NCAAs; or

4) Another team withdraws, assuming two or four of the teams from option 1 go to the NCAAs.

Stay tuned.

PBR... · November 12, 2008, 04:00:03 PM

Quote from: Frank Rossi on November 12, 2008, 03:31:59 PM
This is an analysis of the state of affairs if Pool C were being picked today. In order to perform this analysis, we must first square away some Pool A and Pool B issues.

{remainder deleted/pc}

and dvc is mac champ w/ win over albright and lyco loss....and lyco is in w/ a win over leb val and dvc win over albright...2 big games in the mac this weekend

union89 · November 12, 2008, 04:37:14 PM

Quote from: stimulator on November 12, 2008, 03:30:35 PM
Much of what you said was similar to my earlier sentiments.
QuoteAnd even if they DO get the bid, they might just be rewarded with the likes of Mount Union...Hoo Haaa

Spoke to one of the team members of RPI (close relative ) re: MUC and a first round matchup and their response was that it would be a treat to play the best.

Certainly w/o Savasli, Fil and their starting OT it would be a stretch to think they might win. However the chance to play the best and see how you match up as a team and as an individual brings out the competitive juices.

In a brief career you may never get the chance to play the #1. So win or lose, round one loss or not, interesting to hear the desire to get on the field with the best

This was U89's thinking last year with the import of MUC.....let's actually see how good MUC is....

ps - MUC is pretty damned good.

FB: Liberty League

lewdogg11

union89