World Cup and European leagues

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since we're in a little break before more WC qualifiers I took a look around the world... it's not just Mexico that's struggling right now. I think England could be in trouble not just of not winning their group but being eliminated altogether even though they lead their group right now. They still have games against Montenegro and Poland who they both drew 1-1 on the road. I think that they must win one of those two if they want to avoid elimination. Ukraine still has Poland and a win against San Marino while Montenegro still has England and then a likely win over Moldova.

[jknezek]

Since we're in a little break before more WC qualifiers I took a look around the world... it's not just Mexico that's struggling right now. I think England could be in trouble not just of not winning their group but being eliminated altogether even though they lead their group right now. They still have games against Montenegro and Poland who they both drew 1-1 on the road. I think that they must win one of those two if they want to avoid elimination. Ukraine still has Poland and a win against San Marino while Montenegro still has England and then a likely win over Moldova.

It is unlikely that England will lose at Wembley in a qualifier. It's not impossible, and they certainly haven't made their lives comfortable, but I think England will qualify much like I think Mexico will qualify.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Since we're in a little break before more WC qualifiers I took a look around the world... it's not just Mexico that's struggling right now. I think England could be in trouble not just of not winning their group but being eliminated altogether even though they lead their group right now. They still have games against Montenegro and Poland who they both drew 1-1 on the road. I think that they must win one of those two if they want to avoid elimination. Ukraine still has Poland and a win against San Marino while Montenegro still has England and then a likely win over Moldova.

It is unlikely that England will lose at Wembley in a qualifier. It's not impossible, and they certainly haven't made their lives comfortable, but I think England will qualify much like I think Mexico will qualify.

They may not lose, but it's not going to be easy to win either... and if they get two draws, I think they finish 3rd in their group and are done.
My prediction is that Ukraine wins both of their games and wins the group with 21 points, England and Montenegro draw, Montenegro beats Moldova to finish on 19 points meaning it comes down to England vs Poland. England would be favored but how bad will the pressure be on them. They win that and they'd finish with 20 points and be in a playoff... if they draw they only have 18 and would be eliminated.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

US wasn't stellar early on, but once that first goal found it's way in the US has looked much looser and like a team that's going to qualify number 1 in it's region.
Now to get ready for the big Mexico-Panama game a little later

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

That was some exciting action tonight. I thought Panama was going to pull it off but then the back to back stoppage time goals crushed their dreams. Mexico loses but survive to play another day... now they have to beat the only team to go unbeaten at the 2010 World Cup to advance.
Oh yeah... Honduras locked up 3rd and are qualified.

[jknezek]

Interesting finish to the Hex. I can't help but feel CONCACAF has one spot too many. It should be 2.5 spots, not 3.5. Mexico got less than half the available points in the Hex and is still alive, about what you would expect when 4 of 6 go through, but it really allows for a bad team to play for that final spot. I hope New Zealand can take them. Nice to see the U.S. finish with a win, even a wild one. I didn't get a chance to see the game, but it sounded like a typical road qualifier until the end. I will say this cycle has done nothing for making friends in the region for the U.S. Mexico will always be an archrival, but the snow game turned Costa Rica into an even more bitter enemy and beating Panama in the last minutes to knock them out certainly guaranteed a ton of vitriol when visiting that country. I can't help but feel we'll be facing more bags of flying urine than ever going forward. Oh well.

Two friendlies coming up to end the year. In Scotland and in Austria for the mostly European contingent to try and cement places. Then a January camp in Brazil for the MLS and Scandinavian players. I do wonder how the draw will go. We'll be unseeded and the seeds aren't going to include a softy (England or South Africa) like we got in South Africa. So the U.S. is going to have to play someone very unpleasant. Based on the draw, hopefully we can set up some sendoff games against teams playing similar styles. We have done fairly well with this in the last couple cycles.

[GarbageGoals33]

I disagree in regards to your comments on the 2.5 spots vs. 3.5 spots.  CONCACAF is showing a lot more depth than in years past.  Random teams in the final hex are earning points @ Azteca and there are very few blowouts.  Jamaica was the weak team this qualification cycle but they hung close in every game they played.  Although Mexico is going through a tough time at the moment they certainly have the talent to advance out of the group stage of the World Cup if they advance (which they should).

I believe Switzerland will be seeded this coming WC so hopefully the USA is tossed into their group.

[jknezek]

I disagree in regards to your comments on the 2.5 spots vs. 3.5 spots.  CONCACAF is showing a lot more depth than in years past.  Random teams in the final hex are earning points @ Azteca and there are very few blowouts.  Jamaica was the weak team this qualification cycle but they hung close in every game they played.  Although Mexico is going through a tough time at the moment they certainly have the talent to advance out of the group stage of the World Cup if they advance (which they should).

I believe Switzerland will be seeded this coming WC so hopefully the USA is tossed into their group.

I can see your point, but I still think the last couple teams left out of Europe and Africa can easily handle the way Mexico is currently playing. Look at some of the teams that are sitting in playoff spots from those regions. It really doesn't matter that much, one spot plus or minus, I just think CONCACAF's huge voting footprint gets them a spot they don't deserve in the cesspool that is FIFA politics.

As for Switzerland, I'm not sure we have a centerback that can hold down Ibrahimovic (SP??). That guy is a beast of a center forward.

[GarbageGoals33]

Europe will always have quality teams left out of qualifying.  That is what happens when you have 53+/- teams vying for 13 spots.  Random draw for groups with only the top team automatically qualifying and 2nd place being pushed into a playoff leaves teams like France and Portugal on the bubble this season.  I do not believe there is a fringe African team that will miss the tournament that would handle Mexico, even in their current state.

Ibrahimovic plays for Sweden.

[jknezek]

Europe will always have quality teams left out of qualifying.  That is what happens when you have 53+/- teams vying for 13 spots.  Random draw for groups with only the top team automatically qualifying and 2nd place being pushed into a playoff leaves teams like France and Portugal on the bubble this season.  I do not believe there is a fringe African team that will miss the tournament that would handle Mexico, even in their current state.

Ibrahimovic plays for Sweden.

I think Egypt would stand a very good shot at taking the Mexico we've seen playing, and they just fell apart against Ghana. The African teams are always strong and fast. And yes, I got my Sw's mixed up. Very embarrassing. +K for the correction...

[GarbageGoals33]

I agree that the African teams are always extremely athletic. Their biggest issue is being organized.  I think Bob Bradley is helping bring that kind of stability to the Egypt program but I don't think they have the quality in players to hang with Mexico.  Personally I think it is funny to watch the demise of Mexico, after the Gold Cup a few years ago when they crushed us 4-2 I was certain they would be the top CONCACAF seed for qualifying and have the chance to be seeded for the World Cup.

[jknezek]

I agree that the African teams are always extremely athletic. Their biggest issue is being organized.  I think Bob Bradley is helping bring that kind of stability to the Egypt program but I don't think they have the quality in players to hang with Mexico.  Personally I think it is funny to watch the demise of Mexico, after the Gold Cup a few years ago when they crushed us 4-2 I was certain they would be the top CONCACAF seed for qualifying and have the chance to be seeded for the World Cup.

Mexico's problem has always been in their heads. In this case, their heads told them winning the previous gold cup in a walk, winning the Olympics, cruising through early qualifying had them on easy street. And they choked. Once the pressure turned on, Mexico does what it often does, they fell apart. They are technically and physically gifted, but mentally they are one of the weakest of the better teams in the world. It shows when the pressure turns up, and it almost always has. I'm not sure how they correct it, but I sure hope it never happens, otherwise they have the quality to be a true force.

I always think of Mexico as I used to think of Spain (prior to the last 8 years of course). Or as a lot of people think of Portugal. The talent is always there to be a final eight or final four team, the mindset never is.

[madzillagd]

For those that didn't get to see it here are the highlights from last night's come from behind win.

The high quality version

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qpt23kBTpg

...and the funny version with two announcers from Mexico.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvSEhX__L-w

[sac]

some things are just meant to be shared

[jknezek]

18 years of New York Red Bulls support and I finally, finally, get to see them hoist a trophy that matters. When I was a kid we had season tickets for the first season before I went to college. Even then, I got to see several games a year in the summer. Every year until this year, I have seen at least one game.

Now I have to wonder if I will need to stay away forever...