World Cup and European leagues

[ScotsFan]

Not the win I was looking for, but 3 points is 3 points. Losing Jozy is brutal. We have no one else to play a true "9". When Klinnsman cut Boyd I said he put all our eggs in Jozy's basket and Jozy couldn't get hurt. Ouch. Strange to see 3 hamstring problems in one game. Hopefully both Bedoya and Besler will be OK, but I'm not holding much hope for Jozy. That looked bad. With Portugal losing their big striker, Germany playing a false 9, and Jozy going down, the only team in the group playing a traditional striker will be Ghana. The World Cup is always interesting!

We need 2 more points. So either a win against Portugal or a pair of ties, or Germany to wrap up the group, throw a B team in the last game, and we get a win there. Then we'd need some help between Ghana and Portugal. Early, early, but the best outcome is a win against Portugal. Not sure how to contain Ronaldo. Beasley was eaten up the whole game and only Jones and Beckerman saved his bacon time and again. Johnson had a good game until losing his man on the goal, but Ghana focused so much on Beasley the right side was quiet most of the night.

Bradley needs to step it up. Shades of Landon Donovan in '06 right now. Too much pressure, not enough output. Dempsey's goal was awesome, but once his nose broke he was just a body on the field. Understandable, but not helpful. That left Johannsson all alone and he's not able to do that. Lack of service, lack of movement, lack of everything made him invisible.

I prefer Zusi to Bedoya. Always have. We'll see how Bedoya's legs are and what Klinnsmann decides. Same with Besler and Brooks. Still prefer Besler even with Brooks' heroics.

Thanks to Jermaine Jones last night. Best game in a U.S. uniform and he didn't even get carded! And, as always, Tim Howard you are the man and you need to be the man. Couple good stops when called upon, no mistakes.

Good post. However, while 2 points would assure the US advancing, I think a draw with Portugal would be enough to see us through.

While I do like our chances against the hot mess that Portugal is proving to be, I hope the boys can guard against overconfidence going into that match.  I mean, Portugal still has the best player on the planet (arguably) but one player does not guarantee wins and if the Americans play as a TEAM as we saw what the Spurs did vs the Heat in the NBA Finals, I like our chances to get more than a draw...

[jknezek]

You are correct that 4 points, against the correct teams, will generally get you to go through. Mathematically 4 points will get you to go through just over 50% of the time. Beating Ghana increases those odds in reality because they are less likely to win either of their two remaining games than Portugal (based on my analysis of team quality, but not the cold mathematics), and Portugal's -4 goal differential. Scoring a tie against Portugal means anything less than a 4-0 defeat to Germany, plus Ghana earning less than 4 points in their last two games, or 4 points but less than our goal differential, will put us through. But you can see why the odds still sit at just barely over 50% for 4 points.

For the U.S., 4 points worked for us in '94 and '02. So it seems like 4 points is all you need. But in both cases we needed substantial help to get through, especially in '02 when we backed into the Mexico game after losing to a rather putrid Poland 3-1 in the final group game. We needed S. Korea to beat Portugal, which they did 1-0, because if they tied Portugal would have gone through on goal differential as that takes priority over H2H. We also finished 3rd in our group in '94, but since there were only 24 teams 4 of the best 3rd place teams went through. A stupid system that eliminated only 1/3 of the field after playing over 1/2 of the tournament. Regardless, we were tied for the final third place spot with Italy, thanks mainly to a pair of groups that tied with 3 teams on 6 points a piece.

A tie with Portugal probably puts us in, but I'd hate to rely on it. We took 5 points in '10 and won the group, sparing us Germany and giving us Ghana based on a tie-breaker with England, plus our best ever group result. We've never won 2 games in the group stage before.  Best situation is both the U.S. and Germany win the second games, ending the problem and leaving the third game just for who plays H1 or H2. Granted I don't want to face Belgium, but just getting to that point will make me happy.

Regardless, 4, 5, or 6 points will get you to go through with varying probabilities. 5 points is a near certainty, 4 points is substantially less so, as the math indicates.

If you want to play with the probabilities, check out the last page of this link:

http://www.actuaries.org/FIFA.pdf

[Mr. Ypsi]

Well, the first three officially eliminated from the WC are Cameroon, Australia (no real surprise in either case) and defending champion Spain!

The first two officially in the knock-out rounds are Netherlands and Chile.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Here's my analysis/predictions for the first two groups.

Group A:
It's 3 teams for 2 spots. Brazil 4pts (+2GD); Mexico 4pts (+1); Croatia 3pts (+2); Cameroon 0pts (-5)

Brazil vs Cameroon: Brazil should win comfortably and finish on top of the group. A draw will be enough to see them advance. I like Brazil to win 3-0

Mexico vs Croatia: Basically an elimination game. W/D for Mexico and they advance (who would have predicted that during CONCACAF qualifying? ) but I just can't see them with the firepower to score. If Croatia can get past Ochoa just once (and I think they will) it might be enough to hold up. Croatia 1-0


Group B:
Just positioning to decide. Netherlands 6pts (+5GD); Chile 6pts (+4); Australia 0pts (-3); Spain 0pts (-6)

Netherlands vs Chile: Group B plays before Group A so they won't know what result will avoid facing Brazil. I think this could be a highly entertaining game that ends up in a 2-2 draw.

Australia vs Spain: Just playing for pride at this point. I have no explanation for what has happened to Spain. It's like France in 2010 but without the controversy. If Australia wasn't going to be without their best player I'd pick them to win. For all the entertainment in the other game, I see this being the opposite and a very boring 0-0 draw.

[sac]

Its all here:

groups:  http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/world-cup/2014/schedule/group-stage

knockout:  http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/world-cup/2014/schedule/knockout-stage


The current danger in the tournament is Brazil, Netherlands and Germany all ending up in the same half of the knockout stage.  That can be avoided if both Brazil and Netherlands win their groups.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Agree with you about Brazil winning 3-0.   

Croatia looks very dangerous...  I think they will beat Mexico 2-0 and will give Holland or Chile a run for their money in the round of 16.

I think Chile beats RVPless Holland 2-1.   

Spain will still show up and win 3-0 over Australia.



Brazil/Croatia   -  Brazil hasn't looked good, but still have them in the bracket to win it all.
Chile/Holland     (originally had Spain/Chile until the recent results)
Colombia/Ivory Coast 
Italy/England   -  I have Italy losing to Argentina in semis
France/Swiss   -  I have France reaching the semis and losing to Brazil
Argentina/Bosnia
Germany/Portugal  -  have Germany losing to France.
Belgium/South Korea

[sac]

 ‏@JeremyClarkson

Well done Liverpool. You beat England.

[jknezek]

‏@JeremyClarkson

Well done Liverpool. You beat England.

Cop out. England just isn't that good. Best players in EPL are foreigners. With so many EPL stars playing for other countries it was likely they would get burned. If I was Suarez and the Real Madrid rumors are true I would lobby hard to leave Liverpool. He is going to be booed even worse than before after scoring those two goals, even though both were compliments of horrible defending.

[sac]

‏@JeremyClarkson

Well done Liverpool. You beat England.

Cop out. England just isn't that good. Best players in EPL are foreigners. With so many EPL stars playing for other countries it was likely they would get burned. If I was Suarez and the Real Madrid rumors are true I would lobby hard to leave Liverpool. He is going to be booed even worse than before after scoring those two goals, even though both were compliments of horrible defending.

I think you mean Kop out.

Pretty sure I said the same things 8 years ago about Ronaldo, on this board even.  But had no problem returning to Man Utd.  Neither will Suarez have trouble returning to Liverpool.

[jknezek]

Stupid auto correct!  And yes you are correct about Ronaldo

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

More analysis/predictions from me.

Group C
Three teams fighting for one spot. Colombia 6pts (+4GD); Ivory Coast 3pts (0); Japan 1pt (-1); Greece 1pt (-3)

Colombia vs Japan: Barring something strange, Colombia should win the group so they have no reason to apply much pressure. Japan will be going all out to try to win and will attack constantly. However that will open them up to a counter which Colombia will take advantage of. Final result: 1-1 draw eliminating Japan.

Ivory Coast vs Greece: Cote d'Ivoire isn't guaranteed to advance with a draw so both sides will be attacking early. Greece has yet to find the net though. I feel like Ivory Coast will score late in the first half then park the bus in the second half. Ivory Coast 1-0 and finishes 2nd in the group.


Group D
Elimination game in group D. Costa Rica 6pts (+3GD); Italy 3pts (0); Uruguay 3pts (-1); England 0pts (-2)

Costa Rica vs England: Who would have thought Costa Rica would have the opportunity to take 9 points in this group? While there is the possibility to finish 2nd if they lose, I think Costa Rica will play with no pressure and go for the win. The real question is will England go all out or will the fact they've been eliminated take all the sting out of their attack. Ultimately I think both sides end up a bit disappointed with a 1-1 draw.

Italy vs Uruguay: No need for score watching here. Italy W/D and they advance, Uruguay win and they move on. This will definitely be the game of the day on Tuesday. Whether it's a fast paced up and down game or one sided grind will be determined by who strikes first. If Italy scores first I think they will back off and focus a bit more on defense. But I think Uruguay draws first blood and this turns into an offensive show. I'll take Uruguay 3-2 and a 2nd place finish.


Group E
No one is officially elminated or advancing, but it's really 2 teams for 1 spot. France 6pts (+6GD); Ecuador 3pts (0); Switzerland 3pts (-2); Honduras 0pts (-4)

France vs Ecuador: So far this French team is erasing all memories of 2010. Ecuador will try their best and have a couple opportunities, but France is playing too well right now. 2-0 France and a sweep of the group.

Switzerland vs Honduras: Honduras has been the lone dark spot for CONCACAF thus far. They managed to end their scoreless drought in the last game but that's about all they'll be able to take away this year. Switzerland is better, angrier after the France game, and has too much on the line to allow Honduras to surprise them. Switzerland cruises 3-0 and make it through to the next stage.


Group F
Two teams going for one spot. Argentina 6pts (+2GD); Nigeria 4pts (+1); Iran 1pt (-1); Bosnia and Herzegovina 0pts (-2)

Argentina vs Nigeria: Nigeria shouldn't be in this position right now. A clearly onside goal from B&H that wasn't allowed have put them in great position to advance. But it won't be easy. Argentina barely got the 3 points against Iran. Both of these teams will be content with a draw. There has only been 5 goals in this group and this game won't add to it. 0-0 draw

Iran vs Bosnia and Herzegovina: The only debutants this year, Bosnia and Herzegovina have played well but have nothing to show for it. Iran needs the win to have any hope of advancing but this B&H team is too good to leave without points. Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-1.

An interesting note... apparently if Argentina wins 1-0 and Iran wins 1-0 then Nigeria and Iran will go through all the tiebreakers without determining who is 2nd and they will draw lots to determine who will advance.

[woacfan]

Ugggghhhh!  So close...and Bradley...what were you thinking?

Klinsmann overcoached in my opinion...that last substitution created back line confusion.  If you are in the game as a third central defender,  why oh why do you leave the back door open like that?

Overall, though,  a very good performance that won't shine because of the last minute break-down.

I need someone with more expertise than me to break down the scenarios versus Germany.  I think a win is unrealistic.  What does a tie do for us?  If we lose,  what are the scenarios?

[Mr. Ypsi]

DANG!!  Thirty freakin' seconds from clinching going through!

They are still in pretty good shape.  They go through with a win or tie against Germany, and with a close loss, Ghana still has to make up 2 points or Portugal 5 (if Ghana and Portugal tie, the US is definitely through).  (If two teams tie in points and GD, does it then go to h-to-h?  What if h-to-h was a tie?)

Let's remove all doubt by doing the 'impossible' and beating Germany - why not: we beat Ghana and they tied Germany (we won't mention the Portugal comparison games ).

[jknezek]

Simple explanation here:
http://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2014/6/22/5832970/world-cup-tiebreaker-rules-usa-germany-group-g


H2h is well in back of goal differential and goals scored. The U.S. currently holds tie breaks over both Ghana and Portugal but...  Don't lose and we go through. Lose and it gets tricky. If we lose, it won't matter if the other game ties. If the other game has a winner you want Portugal to win by less than 5 minus what we lose by.  If Ghana wins we better have only lost by one and they won by either 2-1 or 1-0. Anything else will be bad. We are in good shape, but that last goal was a killer.

On another note, the bad news is both Portugal and the U.S. get less rest and come from the worst tournament conditions yet. The U.S. had the worst group, most travel, and the least rest.  If we get out of this group it is amazing. Nothing set up well for the U.S. and eventually it will show. I just hope it doesn't show against Germany. A big loss is about the worst thing that can happen.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The last of my group stage analysis/predictions

Group G
The most interesting group Germany 4pts (+4GD); USA 4pts (+1); Ghana 1pt (-1); Portugal 1pt (-4)

Germany vs USA: A draw is enough for both to advance. Germany doesn't have to worry about goal differential to the other two. They're also an extra day fresher and didn't play in the rain forest. I think the US will play a bit more defensively but Germany will still get the first goal. The US will then get more aggressive but it will be too late. Germany 2-0

Ghana vs Portugal: Only a win will do for these two so they'll both be all out. Should be a highly entertaining game between two quality teams who are desperate. In the end I think Ghana is just a bit more composed. Ghana 2-1 and they slip past the US for 2nd.


Group H
Three teams for one spot. Belgium 6pts (+2GD); Algeria 3pts (+1); Russia 1pt (-1); South Korea 1pt (-2)

Belgium vs South Korea: Belgium was everyone's darkhorse to win the tournament and while they're perfect so far, they've really had to work for it. With South Korea needing a win I just can't see Belgium getting through unscathed. Korea scores first, Belgium gets the equalizer, but South Korea with a late winner for the 2-1 win.

Algeria vs Russia: It hasn't felt like the African teams have done much, but my predictions already have picked 3 out of 4 to advance. Russia will get an early goal to put the pressure on. Algeria will come back after halftime to equalize. An entertaining final half hour ends up with a scoreline of a 1-1 draw.