World Cup and European leagues

[jknezek]

Was the outcome merely an anomaly or the just triumph of substance over style?

It was an anomaly. Germany is a better team, but not 6 goals better. There were almost no teams in the tournament 6 goals better than another. Honduras was arguably the worst team in the tournament and I would bet on them to not lose by 6 goals to any team in the field. Brazil became unraveled. You saw it after the second goal. They just blanked out and the Germans punished them for it. Usually when that starts to happen a single lucky save, a good block, a shanked pass by the team on the role, a bad bounce, etc. allows the defending team a breather and a chance to get their heads back in the game. Germany was absolutely perfect through those 6 or 7 minutes, and Brazil was awful and didn't get a stitch of luck to slow Germany down.

It was an astonishing 7 minutes of soccer. After that, Brazil had no choice. You must press forward, you must take chances, you leave yourself even more open and they got punished twice more. On the other hand, Germany could just sit back and counter. You just have to hand it to Germany and shake your head at Brazil. I don't think I'll ever see anything like that, at that level of professional sports, again.

[frank uible]

In American professional football on November 17, 1940 the Washington Redskins defeated the Chicago Bears, 7-3, at Washington in a regular season game. On December 8, 1940, the Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins, 73-0, at Washington in the NFL championship game.

[jknezek]

In American professional football on November 17, 1940 the Washington Redskins defeated the Chicago Bears, 7-3, at Washington in a regular season game. On December 8, 1940, the Chicago Bears defeated the Washington Redskins, 73-0, at Washington in the NFL championship game.

I'm not sure what that means in this context. Professional football in the 1940s is not comparable to professional sports today let alone soccer at the international level. Professional football in the 1940s would barely qualify as a semi-pro sport today, with many players working second jobs in season and off-season being a time when they made enough money to live. At the time, college football was considered far and away a better product, and many of the best college football players didn't go on to play professional as it didn't pay enough to live on.

Let's not even touch on scouting and game planning. There are no surprises in the players or play in international soccer these days. In pro football in the 1940s there were still a pile of unknowns as teams rarely had the budgets or the ability to film and study opponents. Just as blowouts and unusual results were more common in the formative years of the World Cup (pre-1970s), so was professional football of the 1940s a different animal than today.

One of the best anecdotes I can think of to compare yesterday's loss are the stories about the U.S.'s 1950 1-0 win over England. The result was so inconceivable in Europe that most newspapers ran stories about how the U.S. lost 10-0, assuming that the scoreline they received was a wire error. If the same media conditions existed today, I bet newspapers across the world would have assumed the score was, at worst, 2-1, and the 7 was simply a printing flaw.

[frank uible]

It may mean that anomalies in athletics can and do happen from time to time.

[jknezek]

It may mean that anomalies in athletics can and do happen from time to time.

That I would agree with 100%

[sac]

ESPN tried to compare Germany's scoring barrage to other sports.  They came up with 14 goals in hockey, 22 runs in baseball, 100+ points in football and 484 points in the NBA.

It may mean that anomalies in athletics can and do happen from time to time.

I don't know, Brazil just might not be very good with their top offensive and top defensive players on the sideline.

[jknezek]

Brazil without Neymar and Silva is still a top 10 team in the world. Top 50 teams don't get beat 7-1, at home, without it being an abnormal catastrophe. No, that was a unique series of events that involved pressure and a complete 6 minute collapse with absolutely no luck while the other team played that same span to perfection. I won't say you'll never see it happen again, but I wouldn't bet on it happening in my lifetime.

The important thing to remember is it happened in 6 minutes! Up until the second goal, and even the second half when Brazil flooded forwarded, they were competitive. But for those 6 minutes they couldn't do anything right. It's like a baseball team giving up 15 runs in a Game 7 of the ALCS, but doing it all in one inning while only 7 of those runs were earned.

Or a football team giving up 35 points in a playoff game in the following sequence, natural touchdown, fumble on kickoff, one play drive. Interception on second play, 3 play drive for a score, fumble on kickoff returned for a td. Fumble on 3rd play following kickoff, 1 play drive for a score.

That's how bad Brazil was for 6 minutes and how efficient Germany was during the same time. A perfect 6 minute storm that was amazing to watch at that level of sport.

[jknezek]

Can't say I'm sad to see Arjen Robben's over-theatrics consigned to the third place game. He complained about everything last night and it was nice to see the flopper extraordinaire not get his way. That being said, he's really only marginally worse than anyone else, but he rubs me the wrong way. Argentina should be a dog, but they have a chance to keep Europe's futility in South America going.

On a different note, let me point out how unlucky the U.S. has been since returning to the World Cup in 1990. In 5 of 7 tournaments, the U.S. has faced one of the final four participants. That's just odd.

1990 -- Italy in Group Stage (Italy finished 3rd at a home tournament)
1994 -- Champion Brazil in Round of 16
1998 -- None. Ultimate U.S. flop team
2002 -- Germany in Quarterfinals. Germany finished runner-up
2006 -- Champion Italy in Group Stage. This otherwise under performing U.S. team was the only one to take points of Italy
2010 -- none.
2014 -- Germany in Group Stage.

That's what happens when you aren't seeded and don't win your group. You get bad pairings.

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Facing one of the final four teams doesn't seem like such an odd possibility to me. I'll probably end up figuring out stats while I'm typing this.

Here's our good friends Mexico in the same 7 tournaments.
1990: DNP
1994: Italy (2nd) in group stage, Bulgaria (4th) round of 16
1998: Netherlands (4th) in group stage
2002: none
2006: Portugal (4th) in group stage
2010: Uruguay (4th) in group stage
2014: Brazil in group stage, Netherlands round of 16 (finished 3rd and 4th)


Another way to look at it would be how many teams in a given world cup end up playing a top 4 team. This year three teams in groups A (Brazil), B (Netherlands), F (Argentina), and G (Germany) played teams in the top 4. In round of 16 there was also Algeria (Germany) and Switzerland (Argentina). In the quarterfinals add Colombia (Brazil), France (Germany), Costa Rica (Netherlands), Belgium (Argentina). That's a total of 18 out of 28 teams. I think the maximum possible is 20 and the minimum is 12.

[jknezek]

Facing one of the final four teams doesn't seem like such an odd possibility to me. I'll probably end up figuring out stats while I'm typing this.

Here's our good friends Mexico in the same 7 tournaments.
1990: DNP
1994: Italy (2nd) in group stage, Bulgaria (4th) round of 16
1998: Netherlands (4th) in group stage
2002: none
2006: Portugal (4th) in group stage
2010: Uruguay (4th) in group stage
2014: Brazil in group stage, Netherlands round of 16 (finished 3rd and 4th)


Another way to look at it would be how many teams in a given world cup end up playing a top 4 team. This year three teams in groups A (Brazil), B (Netherlands), F (Argentina), and G (Germany) played teams in the top 4. In round of 16 there was also Algeria (Germany) and Switzerland (Argentina). In the quarterfinals add Colombia (Brazil), France (Germany), Costa Rica (Netherlands), Belgium (Argentina). That's a total of 18 out of 28 teams. I think the maximum possible is 20 and the minimum is 12.

That math seems right to me. Showing that it should be about 50% of the time. The U.S. is 5 of 7. Well through 50%, although in a small sample it's not as big a deal as it actually looks. The variation from normal is easily accounted for when you consider seeding, as well as increased chances of facing a final 4 participant as the group runner-up (or worse for 1992) as opposed to the group winner. And no, the odds of facing a final four team, especially for a team getting out of their group roughly 50% of the time, is not completely unusual, it's just a bit unlucky.

It does get a bit worse when you consider the U.S. has faced a final 2 team in 4 of 7 tournaments, something that seems extremely unusual. But, as with all small sample sizes, that skews as well. It is also possible the U.S. will face the champion in 3 of 7 tournaments, provided Germany wins Sunday.

[lastguyoffthebench]

Doesn't get any better...

http://screamer.deadspin.com/here-is-j-r-jim-ross-calling-the-brazil-germany-firs-1601968953

[sac]

Doesn't get any better...

http://screamer.deadspin.com/here-is-j-r-jim-ross-calling-the-brazil-germany-firs-1601968953

Bravo!

[madzillagd]

Didn't notice this live but the block to the left almost went in from the backspin on the ball....

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/7/10/5889449/ron-vlaar-penalty-netherlands-argentina-world-cup-semifinal

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

Didn't notice this live but the block to the left almost went in from the backspin on the ball....

http://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2014/7/10/5889449/ron-vlaar-penalty-netherlands-argentina-world-cup-semifinal

Wouldn't be the first time that's happened... but never on such a big stage.



Brazil vs Netherlands: I'm going to go out on a very thin limb here and say Brazil won't give up 7 goals. Brazil will have Silva back which should get the defense back to being a defense and not a yellow sieve. My head is telling me all signs point to Brazil winning... teams playing for pride with Brazil at home... Netherlands being down after narrowly missing the finals while Brazil looks to prove something after the humiliation. However my gut is telling me Netherlands will continue with the excellent defense (1 goal in the last 4 games) and one of their many stars will find a way to score. I'm rather hungry at the moment so gut wins. Oranje 1-0

[FCGrizzliesGrad]

The day has finally arrived... who will hoist the FIFA World Cup?

Germany vs Argentina: This is the third straight time they've met at the World Cup. Germany winning the last two meetings in the quarterfinals. This is the fifth World Cup that has been held in South America... the previous four were all won by South American teams.
Germany had an extra day of rest but as we saw in the 3rd place game that doesn't necessarily matter. I expect an exciting game full of chances for both sides. 90 minutes won't be enough as they'll be tied 1-1, Argentina with an early goal and Germany with one near the hour mark. In extra time Messi won't be the hero, but he'll set the hero up with an assist. Argentina will add even more salt into Brazil's wounds and they lift the cup 2-1 in extra time.