FB: Midwest Conference

[scottie]

Has this been one of the wildest MWC football seasons in memory, or what?  Normally, I'm most comfortable with the (real) Good Guys in seek-and-destroy mode, and I'm sure they'll be back there very shortly.  But it has been fun seeing about 3 games on the schedule each week with serious implications.  Unless this becomes the wildest season ever (any league, any division) and SNC snubs their toe, good luck to the Green Knights in the playoffs.  We'll be rooting for you.  In the meantime, I'm starting to get a craving for some Turkey.....   

[Moncolfan]

Hey if the Warthogs can stay undefeated, and UWW gets moved how about the possibility the Norbs get a crack at Wartburg instead of a rematch with St. Thomas? Although Wartburg would be favored I give them a realistic shot at an upset. Don't know how likely this would be though. Hey Blu gotta to give you credit as well for a good call on IC's season, although not as good as my call of your Longhorns headed for the Papa John's bowl. Also looking forwards to Knox on the rise's prediction for the Turkey Bowl. I really like Knox in this one....................

[Kilts and Bagpipes]

What a weekend!!  Congrats to St. Norb....ahh...can't go there.  Who knows what can happen in week 10.  So what if Norby loses?  Does that mean with three losses, then it goes to quarters.  If thats the case, then does ripon get in?  Norbert gets in with a win, but what if they lose....who still has a shot?  What is the quarter total going into week 10?

Great Monmouth game.  Good to see the kicker get to redeem himself after missing the extra point.  Monmouth stole that game.  I don't think they had a first down in the first half besides getting a few penalties.  Monmouth should have been getting the ball deeper downfield.  Carroll's safeties were only about 6 yards off LOS.  We never challenged them deep once.  A three step drop and bomb would have paid off at least once or twice.  Might have opened up the running game a little more.

Anyway...great game to see.  Probably one the the only games I can say that punting is what won us the game.  Shank by them and a pin deep by us was the difference.

[The Roop]

St. Norbert and Illinois College are the only two remaining in the fight. I can see Lake Forest pulling the upset on St. Norbert but Illinois College travels to Americas Team. Bad news if you are a Blue Boy fan.

Don't give the NCAA too many ideas but it wouldn't surprise me to see St. Norbert vs. a CCIW team in the first round. I don't think they will move UWW this year but SNC is a good fit in the north.

[KnoxOnTheRise]

What a weekend!!  Congrats to St. Norb....ahh...can't go there.  Who knows what can happen in week 10.  So what if Norby loses?  Does that mean with three losses, then it goes to quarters.  If thats the case, then does ripon get in?  Norbert gets in with a win, but what if they lose....who still has a shot?  What is the quarter total going into week 10?

Well if Norby loses they maximum amount of 6-3 teams is 5. Which of them gets in? I don't know im not gonna go back and look at the head to head schedules. Of course Monmouth will lose so that will knock it down to 4 teams. Lawrence will upset Ripon as well, down to 3. IC will beat Beloit so they are a lock the winner of the Carroll-Grinnell game is a lock and Norby losing would be a lock (even though they probably won't) So it would be between Norby, IC, and either Carroll or Grinnell. Tiebreaker is

[KnoxOnTheRise]

I forgot to mention this. Somehow between Lawrence us and Lake Forest we are in last but we were the only 1s that beat decent team. Weird. All well another last place finish for us Prairie Fire. Time to get the turkey roasting though!!!!

[The Roop]

IC is the only team that holds a tie breaker over SNC. However, they are @Beloit this week so it won't matter.

[Moncolfan]

In case of a 4 or 5 way tie, I suggest you'd have to go with eliminating teams by their most recent lost to Knox.  Now I know you'd have to go back a few decades but it's as good of one as I know.  Seriously though, from what I have seen St. Norberts is the best team in the conference maybe not entirely by talent, but combined with experience. Their offensive line was best or a close second to Carroll's and their defensive line very good.  Their losses have been close, and many of their wins have been big. I am not basing this on the Monmouth game either, because despite the officiating , SNC would not likely win by that much if they played a 100 more times. If they played Saturday I think they'd be about a 10 pt favorite. Take away the Grinnell game and actually the Scots would be right there, and say what you want with Tanney MC loses 1 in conference at the most. Normally its hard to argue that when you lose 48-2 but I doubt that Tanney would have thrown two picks in the redzone in the first half, and three pick 6's in the .  Regardless I am one who thinks that if St. Norberts plays anyone but UWW or ST they will give their opponent a game and that includes a North Central or Wheaton.

[hickory_cornhusker]

Here is the tiebreaking information I have compiled. I'm working out the senarios right now. Feel free to figure out this for yourself:

St. Norbert 23 quarters led; beat CU, GC, MC, RC; lost to IC
Ripon 21 quarters led; beat CU, GC; lost to IC, MC, SNC
Carroll 20 quarters led; beat IC; lost to MC, RC, SNC
Grinnell 16 quarters led; beat IC, MC; lost to RC, SNC
Illinois College 14 quarters led; beat RC, SNC; lost to CU, GC, MC
Monmouth 14 quarters led; beat CU, IC, RC; lost to GC, SNC

[The Roop]

Illinois College plays @Beloit this week. So any fantasies of possible ties are fool hardy at best.

[hickory_cornhusker]

I think I have it. All of that work and there really are only three senarios and only two teams can make the playoffs.

ST. NORBERT makes the playoffs with:
a) a win
b) any senario that isn't what Carroll needs.

CARROLL makes the playoffs with:
c) a win,
    a SNC loss,
    an IC win,
    a RC loss,
    a MC loss,
    lead 4 all 4 quarters vs. GC AND
    SNC doesn't lead a single quarter vs. LFC

ILLINOIS COLLEGE can't make the playoffs because they can't make up the quarters led difference with SNC if they were to make it to the second tie breaker. The CU senario is one senario that IC would lose out on. If there would be a 4 way tie with Illinois College, SNC, RC, and CU/GC Illinois College and SNC would have 2-1 records in that senario and the quarters led would bump IC out.

MONMOUTH can't make the playoffs. They will lose the head to head tie breaker in any situation where GC wins. To just get to the second tie breaker they need a win, a SNC loss, an IC win, a CU win. The RC game is irrelevant. They can't catch either RC or SNC in the number of quarters led.

RIPON can't make the playoffs because SNC has a win head to head with every team in contention except IC. Therefore a team would need a three way or more tie to top SNC. But since IC and SNC beat Ripon the Red Hakws couldn't have a good enough head to head record with the tied teams.

GRINNELL can't make the playoffs due to a lack of quarters led. They are hurt like CU is by a lack of wins against the top teams. Amazingly they are being punished for not being upset by a lesser team. They need the same senario as CU has listed to get to the second tiebreaker. Since they only have 16 quarters led to 23 by SNC they can't end up in first.

[The Roop]

Me thinks somebody has too much time on their hands. If St. Norbert wins they are in.

[hickory_cornhusker]

Me thinks somebody has too much time on their hands. If St. Norbert wins they are in.

Going to a Catholic university for grad school has its benefits. I have off tonight because of All Saints Day.

[gbpuckfan]

I think if SNC wins we will be cannon fodder for UW Whitewater.

* SNC didn't play well in the loss to St. Thomas.

* We have 3 losses overall

* We have 2 conference losses. An MWC fan will take it as a sign the conference is getting better top-to-bottom and is more competitive (Hey, look, even Lawrence won 2 games!). Outside the conference, this will likely be viewed as SNC had a down year in a traditionally bad conference. That lowers the stock of SNC - or any other MWC team if we lose - when considered nationally.

I don't profess to know the ins and outs of aligning bids regionally. But this season won't help the conference's reputation nationally. Instead of trying to place a dominant 10-0 or 9-1 team, the committee is looking at slightly-better-than-the-rest 7-3 team. Therefore, a short ride down I43 is in the offing, I think.

It's (hopefully) another championship banner - 13 in 26 years - but I think the odds will be stacked against SNC in the first round.

[The Roop]

Lots of teams can still get a share of the MWC title but only St. Norbert and Illinois College are in the running for a playoff berth.