FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[willierobin]

IMO, why Macon has been so successful; they take care of the ball, and they have a bend but don't break defense.

Zak Thornton has touched the ball 319 times so far this season, and has coughed it up only twice. That's pretty darn good (and lucky).

If you look at the stats, they are very one dimensional. But nationally, not even that impressive.

They are 45th (out of 231) in rushing offense and 193rd in passing offense. But being ranked 27th in turnover margin is the key.

And defensively, sure, they're 32nd in points allowed, but they still give up 317 yards a game (81st, nationally).

Although five of their eight wins were by 12 points or less, they haven't had an opponent score more than 25 on them all year. And seven of their nine opponents didn't score more than 17.

They've played in a lot of close games, which certainly helps them. But it will be interesting to see against H-SC (or even a playoff game or two) how well  the Jackets play if/when they get down by a couple scores. Only three times have they been losing during a game by a touchdown (twice against Frostburg, once against Hopkins). Never have they been down by more than that.

I think that Sydney will get up by a couple scores and R-MC won't be able to counter it. R-MC hasn't faced this creative of a team all year. The best offenses they have faced -- Guilford and Bridgewater -- are also very one dimensional teams, so it was easier to prepare for. H-SC, however, will throw a lot of different looks at them.

My prediction; H-SC 31, R-MC 20

I agree. Macon actually had less total offense than their opponent in 3 of their 5 league wins (CU 472-RM 323, E&H 392-RM 313, Guilford 450-RM 372) but won or tied the turnover battle in every game. In their only loss (to 2-6 Frostburg) they had a blocked punt and lost 2 fumbles their last 3 possessions. 

[Jacketlawyer]

Then again...it is Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney.....forget everything I just said!!   

Well said, Allsky.  There is no stat on that issue.  R-M can win this game.

[marc]

Then again...it is Randolph-Macon/Hampden-Sydney.....forget everything I just said!!   

Well said, Allsky.  There is no stat on that issue.  R-M can win this game.

Oh yeah. No doubt. Either team can win. Thats one of the things that make this such a great rivelry. I had talked with a rep from the ODAC at the begining of the season and asked why this game wasnt on the Video schedule. He said that there was a tech issue with getting the feed from Day field. Kudos to RMC for getting that taken care of. I have several friends and relatives that cant make the game but will watch it on the net. 

[tigerftblfan]

As I have stated in previous posts, I am not into making predictions, because when it comes to football......Who knows what can happen !
Just look at D-1 this year......Good Grief at the upsets.
All I know is that we have two fine teams playing for the ODAC championship this weekend and we are lucky as fans to be able to attend such a great matchup......Should be some heads knocking !!
RMC....What can you say " What a turnaround "
I asked one of HSC'S coaches last weekend...are those guys that good ?
He looked me straight in the eye and said... " They are the real deal "
Enough said....We are in for a battle !
I like HSC'S chances, but we must take care of the ball.
I think whoever takes care of the ball..........WINS !!!
Good Luck to all players and may the best team win.
GO TIGERS !!!!

[Oil Can]

My prediction; H-SC 31, R-MC 20

H-S 41
R-M 31

The head says that, having finally gotten over the BC hump, this is the year for Coach Favret and the Tigers to advance.  The gut says that Macon will give up early yards, but not points, control the ball, keep the game close, force a late turnover and pull it out at the gun.

RMC -  24
H-SC - 23

[R-MC Guy]

I am new to this message board, but, I have an observation. I'd love to get some reaction. R-MC and H-SC have six common oponents (the five other ODAC teams plus Johns Hopkins). I'll leave Johns Hopkins out of the discussion since Simpson was out for that game. (Including Johns Hopkins would actually favor R-MC since R-MC beat Hopkins and H-SC lost to them.) Let's look at head to head comparisons in the ODAC games.

First, R-MC is 5-0 while H-SC is 4-1. I realize that H-SC turned the ball over 7 times to E&H's 1 in the loss, but turnovers count.

On the offensive side of the ball, H-SC certainly looks stronger on the surface (41.4 points per game vs. 31.0 for R-MC). However, the H-SC point totals were bolstered by high scores against weaker defenses (i.e., 56 vs. Guilford and 49 vs. Catholic). Against the three teams with stronger defenses (W&L, E&H, and BC) H-SC's average points per game was 34.0 while R-MC's was 34.7, pretty much a dead heat. Clearly H-SC goes to the pass more than R-MC and therefore can score quickly and put up big numbers against weaker defenses. But, against more stout defenses, it isn't clear that there is that much difference.

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

I know that this is R-MC vs. H-SC so you can throw out the record books and the statistics, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss R-MC's chances. They are disciplined and tough. I'm taking nothing away from H-SC. From everything I can see, they are a good team. I expect a hard fought game. Who knows what the outcome will be? But, don't count the Jackets out just yet.

GO JACKETS!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

I am new to this message board, but, I have an observation. I'd love to get some reaction. R-MC and H-SC have six common oponents (the five other ODAC teams plus Johns Hopkins). I'll leave Johns Hopkins out of the discussion since Simpson was out for that game. (Including Johns Hopkins would actually favor R-MC since R-MC beat Hopkins and H-SC lost to them.) Let's look at head to head comparisons in the ODAC games.

First, R-MC is 5-0 while H-SC is 4-1. I realize that H-SC turned the ball over 7 times to E&H's 1 in the loss, but turnovers count.

On the offensive side of the ball, H-SC certainly looks stronger on the surface (41.4 points per game vs. 31.0 for R-MC). However, the H-SC point totals were bolstered by high scores against weaker defenses (i.e., 56 vs. Guilford and 49 vs. Catholic). Against the three teams with stronger defenses (W&L, E&H, and BC) H-SC's average points per game was 34.0 while R-MC's was 34.7, pretty much a dead heat. Clearly H-SC goes to the pass more than R-MC and therefore can score quickly and put up big numbers against weaker defenses. But, against more stout defenses, it isn't clear that there is that much difference.

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

I know that this is R-MC vs. H-SC so you can throw out the record books and the statistics, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss R-MC's chances. They are disciplined and tough. I'm taking nothing away from H-SC. From everything I can see, they are a good team. I expect a hard fought game. Who knows what the outcome will be? But, don't count the Jackets out just yet.

GO JACKETS!

Great first post, R-MC Guy! I hope you stick around.

Even though I'm picking the Tigers in this one, don't think for a second I'm not giving the Jackets a chance in this one. They're at home, and they have a better defense. That's huge.

I just think Macon hasn't had to play from behind all season, and frankly, I don't think they're good enough to keep winning games by a field goal or touchdown. Eventually that's going to catch up to them, be it against H-SC or the first round of the playoffs.

But having said that, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they beat Sydney. It's going to be one heck of a game!

[algernon]

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

R-MC Guy .... Thanks for posting all of the stats, but you're using the numbers to benefit your RMC argument when you throw out HSC's offensive numbers against Guilford and Catholic but keep the Tiger's defensive numbers against the same 2 teams.

Here's the statistics, looking at all of the ODAC games, as you did when you looked at the defensive numbers:  On the offensive side of the ball, it isn't close.  HSC scored 43.4 points per game while RMC scored only 31.0. Against every ODAC oponent, HSC scored more points than RMC and, with the exception of E&H and W&L, the difference was double digits in every game.

I'm glad you didn't include the Hopkins' game, since Simpson wasn't on the field and Corey Sedlar was taking his first game snaps ever at quarterback.  If not for that one-point loss under very trying circumstances at the beginning of the season, the Tigers would be 8-1.  It doesn't matter much, except to the Tigers' seeding in the NCAAs after they BEAT MACON!   

[R-MC Guy]

I am new to this message board, but, I have an observation. I'd love to get some reaction. R-MC and H-SC have six common oponents (the five other ODAC teams plus Johns Hopkins). I'll leave Johns Hopkins out of the discussion since Simpson was out for that game. (Including Johns Hopkins would actually favor R-MC since R-MC beat Hopkins and H-SC lost to them.) Let's look at head to head comparisons in the ODAC games.

First, R-MC is 5-0 while H-SC is 4-1. I realize that H-SC turned the ball over 7 times to E&H's 1 in the loss, but turnovers count.

On the offensive side of the ball, H-SC certainly looks stronger on the surface (41.4 points per game vs. 31.0 for R-MC). However, the H-SC point totals were bolstered by high scores against weaker defenses (i.e., 56 vs. Guilford and 49 vs. Catholic). Against the three teams with stronger defenses (W&L, E&H, and BC) H-SC's average points per game was 34.0 while R-MC's was 34.7, pretty much a dead heat. Clearly H-SC goes to the pass more than R-MC and therefore can score quickly and put up big numbers against weaker defenses. But, against more stout defenses, it isn't clear that there is that much difference.

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

I know that this is R-MC vs. H-SC so you can throw out the record books and the statistics, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss R-MC's chances. They are disciplined and tough. I'm taking nothing away from H-SC. From everything I can see, they are a good team. I expect a hard fought game. Who knows what the outcome will be? But, don't count the Jackets out just yet.

GO JACKETS!

Great first post, R-MC Guy! I hope you stick around.

Even though I'm picking the Tigers in this one, don't think for a second I'm not giving the Jackets a chance in this one. They're at home, and they have a better defense. That's huge.

I just think Macon hasn't had to play from behind all season, and frankly, I don't think they're good enough to keep winning games by a field goal or touchdown. Eventually that's going to catch up to them, be it against H-SC or the first round of the playoffs.

But having said that, I wouldn't be shocked at all if they beat Sydney. It's going to be one heck of a game!

You make a very valid point. With R-MC's passing game, they will be hard pressed to come back from a significant dificit. From R-MC's perspective, they really can't affort to fall behind.

[R-MC Guy]

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

Thanks for posting all of the stats, but you're using the numbers to benefit RMC when you throw out HSC's offensive numbers against Guilford and Catholic.

Here's another statistical fact:  On the offensive side of the ball, it isn't close.  HSC scored 43.4 points per game while RMC scored only 31.0. Against every ODAC oponent, HSC scored more points than RMC and, with the exception of E&H and W&L, the difference was double digits in every game.

I absolutely agree. In fact, I think that I made that point. On the surface H-SC's offense is much better than R-MC's. In addition, as a previous poster pointed out R-MC's offensive is rather one dimensional whereas H-SC can hurt you both on the ground and in the air. I am only pointing out that H-SC's offensive performance against stronger defenses is somewhat more modest. We should see a good offense against a good defense. We'll see how it shakes out on Saturday. It should be a great game!

[marc]

R-MC Guy,

Great post. I will add that if you throw out the EH (seven turnovers) Sydneys point totals against Bridewater and W&L averaged 36.5 and RMC averaged 33.0 Slight edge to HSC. HSC moved the ball well enough against EH. Therein is the key. HSC needs to take care of the ball Saturday. With the execption of the first game against Hopkins (minus Simpson and starting a new quarterback) no one has been able to stop Sydney from racking up yardage.
BTW. All but two of Roanoke Times' Fearless Forcasters picked RMC this morning. Course they get ODAC games wrong about 50% of the time.  

[marc]

Sorry the HSC point total average for the BC-WL games was 41.5. verses 33 for RM against the same teams. Not that it matters Saturday. All bets are off. Its THE GAME............51 hours and 45 minutes and counting.

[Jacketlawyer]

Sorry the HSC point total average for the BC-WL games was 41.5. verses 33 for RM against the same teams. Not that it matters Saturday. All bets are off. Its THE GAME............51 hours and 45 minutes and counting.

Yes, indeed.   Wearing my R-M tie today, and when I see an H-S alum later today with whom I have a hearing, he's gonna get the business.

Welcome to the board, R-MC Guy.  I certainly hope you'll stick around. 8)

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...] Wearing my R-M tie today, and when I see an H-S alum later today with whom I have a hearing, he's gonna get the business. [...]

That's great!

Will he be wearing a bow tie?

[allsky7]

I am new to this message board, but, I have an observation. I'd love to get some reaction. R-MC and H-SC have six common oponents (the five other ODAC teams plus Johns Hopkins). I'll leave Johns Hopkins out of the discussion since Simpson was out for that game. (Including Johns Hopkins would actually favor R-MC since R-MC beat Hopkins and H-SC lost to them.) Let's look at head to head comparisons in the ODAC games.

First, R-MC is 5-0 while H-SC is 4-1. I realize that H-SC turned the ball over 7 times to E&H's 1 in the loss, but turnovers count.

On the offensive side of the ball, H-SC certainly looks stronger on the surface (41.4 points per game vs. 31.0 for R-MC). However, the H-SC point totals were bolstered by high scores against weaker defenses (i.e., 56 vs. Guilford and 49 vs. Catholic). Against the three teams with stronger defenses (W&L, E&H, and BC) H-SC's average points per game was 34.0 while R-MC's was 34.7, pretty much a dead heat. Clearly H-SC goes to the pass more than R-MC and therefore can score quickly and put up big numbers against weaker defenses. But, against more stout defenses, it isn't clear that there is that much difference.

On the defensive side of the ball. It isn't close. R-MC allowed only 17.4 points per game while H-SC allowed 38.0. Against, every ODAC oponent, R-MC allowed fewer points than H-SC and with the exception of E&H the difference was double digits in every game.

I know that this is R-MC vs. H-SC so you can throw out the record books and the statistics, but I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss R-MC's chances. They are disciplined and tough. I'm taking nothing away from H-SC. From everything I can see, they are a good team. I expect a hard fought game. Who knows what the outcome will be? But, don't count the Jackets out just yet.

GO JACKETS!

     Welcome to the board.  Based on these numbers, should we make the jackets a .7 point favorite?  GO TIGERS!!