FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HSCTiger fan]

Who are the elite teams?

#5 Oshkosh has never been to the playoffs.

#7 Cal Lutheran is 0-3 in their only playoff appearances.

#8 Hobart has not been in the playoffs since 2008 when they lost in the first round

# 9 Widener lost in the first round in both 2007 and 2011. They were 3/7 in 2009.

# 10 Coe was 6/4 last year. But has the BEST playoff record of any of these teams at 1-2.

None of these "next level" teams has won more games than HSC since 2007 and these "next level" teams have combined to win a whopping 1 playoff win with 7 losses.

That means the elite are limited to MU, UWW, Wesley, Linfield, St. T, and MHB.  That represents 2% of the teams playing d3 football.  I see nothing that makes me think that HSC or other ODAC teams cannot compete with the rest of the top 10.

I was looking at it that way for a while, but you have to consider the conference in general, how has other teams in each of those teams conference mentioned above faired in previous playoffs (not including UWW, MUC, and Linfield).

I agree that conferences make a difference. But if we are talking about next level and elite TEAMS then why can't an ODAC team catch lighting in a bottle and do the same thing as one of these teams are doing this year?  I think they can.

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:
http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2012/11/07/second-2012-ncaa-regional-rankings/

[jknezek]

Why can't I stop myself from reading and responding??? There must be a pill somewhere I can take that will turn off my need to make logical arguments...

Elite teams should be a very small number. If you are talking "next level" teams you are missing quite a few. Off the top of my head look into North Central, SJF, Salisbury, Franklin, St. Johns, Bethel, Cortland State, Wittenberg, Wabash, W&J, and TMC. Montclair State could be in this discussion. Some might have fallen off the pace and not all are in the playoffs every year, or even in the discussion this year, but all have had multiple playoff victories recently.

Hobart was in the playoffs last year and played to a tight loss at Wesley. As for having a better winning percentage, with so little crossover in D3 it's hard to make that case. The ASC teams might have lower winning percentages but I wouldn't want to see the ODAC go up against La Col, HSU or some of the other teams. It would definitely hurt ODAC winning percentages.

And if you think HSC, or any other ODAC team, can compete with the best teams in D3 right now you aren't watching enough D3 football. There is a massive gap between those top teams and the second tier. There is another large gap down from there. The ODAC teams are good, average, D3 teams. HSC is the best of them, putting them above average. W&L the last couple years has also been above average.

But there is a long way from "above average" to the top tier. You need to go see Wesley play. Or go to the Stagg Bowl. See the size and speed of those athletes and compare it to what you see in the ODAC. I can assure you, it is very different. There are 4 teams in the WIAC that could beat anyone in the ODAC in my opinion. There are 3 or 4 teams in the ASC that could beat anyone in the ODAC. There are probably 3 in the MIAC, 2 in the NCAC, two in the NWC. Likewise I can run off a list of conferences where there are 2 or 3 teams in the ODAC where they could beat everyone.

Finally, with 220 or so D3 teams and only 32 teams making the playoffs, in any given year only 14% of the universe makes the playoffs. With 6 elite level teams (assuming travel and the NCAA doesn't force them together in the first round), that means only about 10 playoff games in the first round are legitimate for "next level" teams to get a win. Which means in any given year, only 4.5% of the D3 universe outside the elite 6 will win a playoff game.

So it is really, really, really hard to get that shot, to get the right seeding, to get a little lucky, and to get that win. As the 2010 HSC team found out... Playoff success isn't the only arbiter of the next level, but being competitive in your playoff games can be. Something the ODAC has not necessarily had, except for that 2010 HSC team.

[jknezek]

As expected, W&L stays at 5 in the south in the new regional rankings, HSC falls out, and W&L gets some seeding help with F&M making an appearance. W&L has a massive SOS, although it will drop after this week, and 1-1 against RROs.

I still think there is no hope of a game in Lexington, but if there is any hope it will come from both Huntingdon and Waynesburg losing this week. That might move W&L high enough in the RRs, eliminating probably both Huntingdon and Waynesburg from C and A&C consideration respectively (Waynesburg SOS is terrible) that a bracket could contain W&L at a 4.

I would put the above scenario at an extreme longshot, even if both teams lose, which I think is a longshot all by itself. Waynesburg might lose, but I think Huntingdon can handle Adrian at home.

[SUADC]

As expected, W&L stays at 5 in the south in the new regional rankings, HSC falls out, and W&L gets some seeding help with F&M making an appearance. W&L has a massive SOS, although it will drop after this week, and 1-1 against RROs.

I still think there is no hope of a game in Lexington, but if there is any hope it will come from both Huntingdon and Waynesburg losing this week. That might move W&L high enough in the RRs, eliminating probably both Huntingdon and Waynesburg from C and A&C consideration respectively (Waynesburg SOS is terrible) that a bracket could contain W&L at a 4.

I would put the above scenario at an extreme longshot, even if both teams lose, which I think is a longshot all by itself. Waynesburg might lose, but I think Huntingdon can handle Adrian at home.

Lexington is only 390 miles from Alliance. You never know.

[jknezek]

As expected, W&L stays at 5 in the south in the new regional rankings, HSC falls out, and W&L gets some seeding help with F&M making an appearance. W&L has a massive SOS, although it will drop after this week, and 1-1 against RROs.

I still think there is no hope of a game in Lexington, but if there is any hope it will come from both Huntingdon and Waynesburg losing this week. That might move W&L high enough in the RRs, eliminating probably both Huntingdon and Waynesburg from C and A&C consideration respectively (Waynesburg SOS is terrible) that a bracket could contain W&L at a 4.

I would put the above scenario at an extreme longshot, even if both teams lose, which I think is a longshot all by itself. Waynesburg might lose, but I think Huntingdon can handle Adrian at home.

Lexington is only 390 miles from Alliance. You never know.

You're late to the party. That's a definite possiblity I've already acknowledged. So is Dover and about a half dozen other places you really don't want to go. Mine was a best case for W&L, not a worst case. I think W&L will avoid that fate as I don't think they will have one of the 4 worst resumes in the field thanks to their SOS and 1-1 vs RROs. But it's really just too hard to predict.

[wesleydad]

Who are the elite teams?

#5 Oshkosh has never been to the playoffs.

#7 Cal Lutheran is 0-3 in their only playoff appearances.

#8 Hobart has not been in the playoffs since 2008 when they lost in the first round

# 9 Widener lost in the first round in both 2007 and 2011. They were 3/7 in 2009.

# 10 Coe was 6/4 last year. But has the BEST playoff record of any of these teams at 1-2.

None of these "next level" teams has won more games than HSC since 2007 and these "next level" teams have combined to win a whopping 1 playoff win with 7 losses.

That means the elite are limited to MU, UWW, Wesley, Linfield, St. T, and MHB.  That represents 2% of the teams playing d3 football.  I see nothing that makes me think that HSC or other ODAC teams cannot compete with the rest of the top 10.

HSC tiger, i think you have the elite list correct over the last 7 or 8 years.  Those 6 teams have been in the semis almost every year.  as you say another team may break in, wheaton did a few years ago, but for the most part these are the top teams.  oshkosh may be taking UWW's place on that list this year.  any team can make a run and get to the quarters, but that is where the difference really show up.  jk is right about the gaps between the top and the next level and the next level and the rest.  if you get a chance to see any of these teams play live as he suggests you will see that difference.  if is nothing personal or a slight to the ODAC or many of the other teams.  There are plenty of good teams out there, but when you start talking about playoffs and winning the Stagg, the list gets short real fast.  If you have never been to the Stagg, make the trip this year and see what we are talking about or if you saw the Huntingdon game with the tigers this year then you got a small sampling.  Huntingdon is on the rise and takes on all comers and is moving in that direction.  Hobart is a very good team, the game with wesley last year showed that, but they and their conference had little respect until that showing.  do i think hsc and W&L could compete with the bottom 5 of the top 10, on any given saturday YES! no doubt about it.  Competing with and beating on a regular basis are 2 different things.

[General123]

Hey all -

So a few things to weigh in on here....

1) Regional rankings - W&L stays unchanged, as expected. I really dont think they will get shipped to alliance, but who knows. I really just hope we have an opportunity to win a playoff game. Last time W&L made the playoff, in my opinion, they were treated unfairly by the committee. In 2010, after beating HSC handily, they were shipped to Thomas More, while HSC got to play Montclair at home. While that is neither here nor there now, I just hope W&L gets a fair draw.

2) D3 competition...Having played on a W&L team that won a conference championship and got whooped by Thomas More in the first round, I speak from experience. I do think that it is possible for an ODAC team to compete on the highest level in d3, with the right level of commitment. Not only does it take administrative commitment in recruitment and facilities, as well as the many other things mentioned, but it also takes individual player commitment to the program. This is not something that has been mentioned. Building a culture where players want to buy in and continue to get bigger, faster, stronger is just as important as recruitment, etc. In my opinion, the big difference between the top and the bottom is not athleticism, it is strength and commitment. Additionally, I will have to disagree with my fellow alum JK haha. I think that Scott Abell has the right mindset to bring W&L to the next level. Yes, he does have some challenges ahead of him, but he is one of the most inspirational and driven men I have ever been around, not to mention he has a brilliant offensive scheme. I look forward to the next few years when he builds a full team of his own recruits. I think he is committed to the program and we can expect to see W&L's football program prosper under his guidance.

[Jacketlawyer]

Jknezek

I have my own thoughts but I'm curious of your opinion as to why the ODAC is not more competitive on the national stage in football.

I don't really have an answer for this, but the thoughts I do have are rather long. I'm going to start by changing the assumption. The ODAC doesn't need a bunch of teams that compete at the national level, very few conferences have that, it needs 1 team at a time to be relevant at the national level, but it needs at least one team MOST of the time. The ODAC has periodically had a nationally relevant team, but it has never consistently had a string of nationally relevant teams the way "power" conferences tend to do.

I think to become successful at the D3 level a lot of factors need to come together at once. You need the coach, you need the facilities, you need to devote the recruiting resources, you need a long term plan and devotion of resources to test yourself, and you need to get a little lucky in your recruiting. To stay on top you need to keep the coach, keep updating the facilities, keep providing resources to the recruiting and travel, and to be a little lucky overall.

I think the E&H teams of the early 90s were almost there. There were some excellent teams that just couldn't take the final step and make a (much, much, much) more limited playoff field. Bridgewater certainly had the components for a couple years, though it centered mainly on some truly outstanding recruiting classes that weren't sustained. Why not? I don't know. Bridgewater never struck me as being outsized in terms of the resources they devoted to football, the coach, while very good, never struck me as a genius. He's been there for 18 years and had a fantastic run for a few years in the middle, surrounded by mostly ODAC average teams. So they got some very good recruits, played with them as long as they could, and didn't sustain it.

Overall, I think the ODAC is a pretty typical D3 conference. I think most of the teams, top to bottom, would fit in with any but the very top conferences in the country (ASC, WIAC, NWC). The ODAC champion might not win the PAC, the CC, the MAC, the SAA, on a regular basis, but all the ODAC teams would be competitive within the conference. And the ODAC teams would run roughshod over the NEFC, the USAS (sans Huntingdon next year. Wait until the USAS gets a look at the monster they invited into their playground), and some of the other weak conferences.

The problem the ODAC has is a true lack of a power program. If you look at the major players on the national scene, they are usually the same teams for a 5-10 year period. Mt Union, UMHB, Linfield, Wesley and St. Thomas have all been kicking around recently. Prior to that St. Johns, Ithaca, Augustana, Wisconsin La Crosse, Rowan, W&J all were power teams. Most recently, of course, no one has touched UWW until this year.

So where is the ODACs power team? I see HSC and, to a lesser degree, RMC recently trying to take that mantle but not quite pulling it off. HSC tries the hardest. I say this because they are the only team consistently scheduling challenging non-conf games and pushing their envelope. Coach Favret took over a weakened program and has built it to the top of the ODAC. He schedules Huntingdon, Salibury, CNU and other playoff caliber teams on a regular basis. No other ODAC team really takes that route. Sadly it's just not working.

The question is why isn't it working? First, he's not getting the players. HSC is good. Top shelf of the ODAC, but they aren't dominating the conference. They aren't a more than a step above everyone else, and really there is usually a team on the same step, and that's just not enough quality. Two, I'm not sure Coach Favret can get them there. He's been there 13 years and he took a weakened program to the top of the ODAC. But if he hasn't turned it into a perennial contender by now, he probably can't. Three, is the institutional will there? I don't know enough about HSC to say. Are the facilities steps above the rest of the ODAC? Is his recruiting budget better? Does he have more assistant coaches? I don't know.

We'll use what I know best as an example. I loved W&L's previous coach. He was a great guy, but almost as long as he was there he was under .500. He graduated his players, had competitive teams if not good ones more often than not, and that was good enough for W&L. He was there until he wanted to leave, and I think that is pretty much the philosophy of most ODAC teams, and that's part of why they aren't national players.

Anyway, that's my thoughts on the ODAC. I know someone will bring up the number of schools and the competition for kids, the cost of tuition, etc. etc. I don't buy it. Ohio has as much competion as Virigina and it doesn't stop Ohio from generating top notch programs. The Liberty League costs as much if not more, and there is Hobart. Those are just two of many examples. It's about drive, resources, devotion and luck. I'm not sure the ODAC has the first 3 and only Bridgewater had the last one lately.

Finally, don't think I'm knocking Coach Favret. The guy is a great football coach for D3. He's done wonders at HSC and I have all the respect in the world for him and the HSC program. But that's different from asking me if I think he can turn HSC into a national contender...

Great post and analysis!

[Ralph Turner]

That post just makes me feel old. Marty Favret has been there 13 years? Sheesh. Time flies!

I can't believe someone actually read that whole post!

Yes and with serious concentration to the good points in the post.
+1!

[Ralph Turner]

Who are the elite teams?

#5 Oshkosh has never been to the playoffs.

#7 Cal Lutheran is 0-3 in their only playoff appearances.

#8 Hobart has not been in the playoffs since 2008 when they lost in the first round

# 9 Widener lost in the first round in both 2007 and 2011. They were 3/7 in 2009.

# 10 Coe was 6/4 last year. But has the BEST playoff record of any of these teams at 1-2.

None of these "next level" teams has won more games than HSC since 2007 and these "next level" teams have combined to win a whopping 1 playoff win with 7 losses.

That means the elite are limited to MU, UWW, Wesley, Linfield, St. T, and MHB.  That represents 2% of the teams playing d3 football.  I see nothing that makes me think that HSC or other ODAC teams cannot compete with the rest of the top 10.

Going on the road to Linfield in a first round is purely "geographical", to save the cost of extra plane fares. 

IMHO, were Cal Lu to have been properly seeded, kinda like March Madness, and have been allowed to fly or host in its most accurate seeding, then I think that they would have won those "#8 vs #25" games versus having to be a #8 seed flown to a #5 seed Linfield first round game to save some money for the NCAA.

[wasper68]

Will the link below have any impact on "The Game" on Saturday?


http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/316446

[jknezek]

Will the link below have any impact on "The Game" on Saturday?


http://www.roanoke.com/news/breaking/wb/316446

Can't imagine it will have much of an affect but it is a bit embarrassing. It seems like it was well handled and we all know that in any grouping of several hundred people you are going to have a few bad seeds. It seems like the bad seeds, as usual, got press for acting badly. It also seems, although the article doesn't mention it beyond a line or two, that other students behaved very well and stood against the few acting badly. While the slurs are completely unacceptable, the fact that there was no violence or property damage indicates that this was stopped before it got out of hand.

I'm sure H-SC will handle this and move on with limited repercussions. It is sad that it happened at all.

[jknezek]

Keith is currently projected W&L to go to JHU. Not the worst draw and he labels it a 3 vs 6, which seems to be about right to me. The last couple weeks JHU has been much more vulnerable. They struggled with Gettysburg and lost to F&M. Wouldn't be an easy game by any stretch of the imagination, but it would be more winnable than a lot of the other options.

Of course, the one thing about projections is that you can pretty much guarantee it won't happen! I'm still hoping for Waynesburg. Keith also points out that a lot of teams could be substituted into that 3 spot. A couple of the technically "east" region teams would be a good fit as well. I think I'd prefer JHU to the MAC winner, but that could be splitting hairs because I remember the last time W&L played the MAC winner and the Wilkes men made the W&L team look like little boys...

[biggben53]

In regards to the incident at H-SC...

After speaking with many students, faculty, and staff at H-SC, everyone is extremely embarrassed, as am I.  That said, you are correct in saying it has and still is being handled correctly.

I do not believe it will have an impact on The Game.  There was definitely no football players invovled...a good percentage of the Minority Student Union is on the football team and all players have stayed together this week with their focus on preparing for Macon.

Should be another good one.