FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

Here are a few of the so called "power" conference playoff records the past 3 years:

NWC - 5 wins 6 losses Linfield has all of those wins but only 2 victories against any team other than a first round rematch
CC - 1 win 5 losses
ASC - MHB is awesome but the other conference teams have gone 1-2 in the last 3 years
OAC - Mt Union is simply ridiculous but the rest of the OAC is 2-3 with first round exits each of the last 2 years.
NJAC 2 wins 5 losses
CCIW - North Central has done great 5-3 but the rest? 1 win 3 losses
ODAC? 1-3. Not great but is it really that bad by comparison?

Pointing out that the ODAC's 1-3 record is comparable to OAC-minus-Mount-Union or any other league minus its best team is not a fair comparison.  A fairer comparison would be throwing out the ODAC's best team each year and figuring out the record if you sent the second-best team from the league to the playoffs, THEN comparing the playoff records, which we obviously cannot do.  Incidentally, this might not affect the ODAC playoff record that much because, as you're alluding to here, the ODAC is more tightly packed than those other leagues and some years there may be little difference between the champion, runner-up, or even the third-place team.  While the ODAC does not have a juggernaut racking up playoff wins, it's among the more competitive year-to-year leagues in the Division, which makes it kind of fun to follow, even if the champ is often bounced early in the playoffs.  The following teams have finished at least tied for the league title since 2008: Hampden-Sydney, Wash & Lee, Catholic, Emory & Henry, Randolph-Macon, only two years produced an undefeated league champion in that stretch, and several times the league has come down to the last week.

I think we alluded to this in a prior conversation a long time ago, but some of those conferences have an A-plus team, an A-minus team, a B-plus team, a few C-level teams, and one or two D-level teams while leagues like the ODAC are clustered with everyone ranging from B-plus to C-minus, which makes it a fun and competitive league to follow even if they're not likely producing a national title contender.

I still stand by jknezek's point that overall statistical rankings throughout the Division must be taken with a few dozen grains of salt.  Wabash's defense and HSC's offense are both, no doubt, outstanding units within their own conferences, and the title of "elite" is something we can squabble about til the end of time.   In defining a unit as "elite" or whatever, the performance(s) against other quality opposition will be far more informative than aggregate statistics compiled against a range of competition.  It's fair to point out that Wabash compiled most of those impressive statistics against lackluster NCAC offenses, and that it was not nearly so effective in its sole game against playoff-caliber opposition; likewise for H-SC...they were shut out for 59 minutes against Christopher Newport, scored a lot of points throughout conference play in an overall high-scoring league, and eventually were shut down by Linfield after a very impressive opening salvo.

Of course, nobody's perfect and we're picking nits here, but that's the whole point of bestowing the title "ELITE" or anything of that ilk...it's supposed to be hard!

[D3MAFAN]

Here is the formula to be a championship team...have a great defense with a balance offense or as the old saying, say's, "When in Division III, do as UWW and Mount Union do." 

[wildcat11]

NWC - 5 wins 6 losses Linfield has all of those wins but only 2 victories against any team other than a first round rematch

I believe it's actually 5-5 and two of those losses have come via head-to-head NWC rematches (PLU vs Linfield x2) due to the NWC geographical location.  I would love to see what that record would be if PLU was sent somewhere else in the 1st round but that's not the way the system works in D3.

I think many consider the NWC a power conference because four of our members (Linfield, Willamette, PLU, Whitworth) have won playoff games in the modern D3 era, two have won National Titles (the only conference with multiple NC's in the modern D3 era), and our non-confernece record last season was 15-6.  Yeah, L&C and UPS suck but the rest of the conference has proven to be strong over a large sample size.

[HSCTiger fan]

Ex Tarten - the 1-3 ODAC playoff record is fair to compare to OAC or SWC. MU and MHB are both certainly elite teams.  I'm basically saying no other team in any of these conferences are elite and their mediocre playoff records indicate this is true.

Wildcat your right about PLU X2 but in 2011 they played Cal Lutheran twice. I disagree that the NWC is a power conference because of 2 national champions from 11 and 16 seasons ago.  No team in the NWC other than Linfield has won a playoff game since Willamette in 2008.  The ODAC had Bridgewater play in the national championship in 2001 was 18 and 8 last year. Does that make the ODAC a power conference? I doubt anyone thinks so. If Linfield dropped out of the NWC I doubt many would think of the NWC as a power conference either. 

Having one very good/great/elite team in your conference does not make your team's conference a power conference. Is the ACC a power conference in D1?  There are only 2 power conferences in my opinion - WIAC and the MIAC.

[ExTartanPlayer]

No team in the NWC other than Linfield has won a playoff game since Willamette in 2008.

This, again, is one of those things that sounds like a really strong case for your argument, but it's really a pretty weak statement (heck, it's right there in your own post acknowledging PLU's "rematch" losses to Linfield).

2013: Linfield wins the conference title.  Runner-up PLU notches a fairly impressive 9-2 season with three decent nonconference wins (including a win over SCIAC champion Redlands, whose only other losses came at the hands of UMHB) and both losses to Linfield.  Pacific Lutheran certainly was capable of winning a playoff game, considering that they did beat another playoff team in the regular season.

2012: Linfield squeaks past PLU 31-24 in the regular season and 27-24 in the playoff rematch.  Linfield wins again before falling in the quarters.  You don't think that PLU team would have won a playoff game if they'd played someone other than Linfield?

2010: PLU stays home from the playoffs despite an 8-1 record, sole loss to Linfield, and a nonconference win over SCIAC champion Cal Lutheran.  Again, put this PLU team in the playoffs with a non-Linfield opponent and they're at least going to have a shot to win a game.

Your argument would be a bit stronger if PLU had lost to someone else in round 1, but saying "no team other than Linfield has won a playoff game since 2008" while all but ignoring the fact that PLU had to play their own conference champion in the last two seasons and, in two of those seasons, they certainly showed playoff capability with a win over a neighboring conference champ.

"If Linfield dropped out of the NWC I doubt many would think of the NWC as a power conference" - again, this is only a fair comparison if you take the best team out of every conference.  Remove the best team from EVERY SINGLE conference (which includes Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB, Linfield) and play the season, then we'll figure out who the power conferences would be.  I bet the runners-up from many of those conferences would represent themselves quite well in the playoffs; remember, we've also "removed" the ODAC champ, and every other conference champ, from this equation.  So we've got PLU in Linfield's place, UW-Platteville in Whitewater's place, etc but we've also got Randoph-Macon in HSC's place and so on.  You don't think PLU would handle most of the runners-up from around the country?  Or John Carroll in Mount's place?  JCU lost in the first round of the playoffs, but they also notched a 41-0 neutral site win over a conference champion, and like I said, put them in the playoffs with all the runners-up, not the conference champs.

[wildcat11]

Remove the best team from EVERY SINGLE conference (which includes Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB, Linfield) and play the season, then we'll figure out who the power conferences would be.

So true.  What some forget is while Whitewater has been the gold standard in D3 is that before UWW when on their run starting in 2005, the WIAC struggled mightily in the playoffs.  Struggled badly. 

In fact if you take UWW's 37-3 (wow) playoff record out of the total the WIAC sits at 9-12 in the playoffs.  If UWW didn't figure out their formula I wonder what our perception of the WIAC would be today?

[jknezek]

One of the places where this whole argument breaks down is when looking at the "second team" in each conference's playoff record. Those teams were seeded lower because they were the "second team" in many cases, creating a less desirable match up. The second team in the WIAC, OAC, NWC, ASC, MIAC and CCIW all would have better playoff records if the top team wasn't in the conference handing them a loss every year. So it's hard to say that those teams are 1-3 and compare OK to the ODAC champs 1-3 when the second teams probably would have had easier match ups in the first round, and theoretically better records, without the top team blocking them every year.

It's all academic, and you can argue until you keel over, but there are better and worse conferences in D3. How you define them is a similar argument to how inclusive you make "elite". Although I do find it interesting that HSCTigerFan wants a broader definition to include HSC's offense last year as "elite" but a narrower definition of the same term when it comes to conferences. 

I will say I agree there are only two truly elite conferences in D3, the WIAC and the MIAC, but much like I'm willing to say HSC's offense was very, very good but not elite I'm willing to include the NWC, ASC (most years. last year maybe not so much), CCIW, and OAC in the next tier. Then there is a very good listing, average, below average, and poor. Bell curves exist everywhere, and the elite happens only at the one tail and is a very small grouping...

[jknezek]

Remove the best team from EVERY SINGLE conference (which includes Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB, Linfield) and play the season, then we'll figure out who the power conferences would be.

So true.  What some forget is while Whitewater has been the gold standard in D3 is that before UWW when on their run starting in 2005, the WIAC struggled mightily in the playoffs.  Struggled badly. 

In fact if you take UWW's 37-3 (wow) playoff record out of the total the WIAC sits at 9-12 in the playoffs.  If UWW didn't figure out their formula I wonder what our perception of the WIAC would be today?

9-12 isn't really that bad in the AQ era. And again, in a bunch of those years you are dealing with a team that was blocked from a better seed by losing to Whitewater, so it's possible a few more wins after 2005 would have been added in. Certainly 2006, the year UWW wiped out their very good conference mate UW La Crosse, that La Crosse team might have won a game or two more. A lot of those first round losses came pre-2005. In fact, 4 first round losses came in 99-02, so in the last 10-12 years the WIAC non UWW has done pretty well. It's hard to say they aren't a power conference now, even if they weren't all that close until the early naughts.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Although I do find it interesting that HSCTigerFan wants a broader definition to include HSC's offense last year as "elite" but a narrower definition of the same term when it comes to conferences. 

Agreed, lol, I had the same thought.

I also agree with your explanation of playoff records of runners-up not really being a straight-up comparison with other conference champions.

I also agree with looking at the conferences really in "tiers" - WIAC/MIAC seeming to stand out the most as our "elite" conferences because of their strength AND depth, with the CCIW, NWC, OAC, and E8 in the next tier of "really good conferences that aren't quite elite."

That was a lot of agreeing.

[ExTartanPlayer]

And again, in a bunch of those years you are dealing with a team that was blocked from a better seed by losing to Whitewater...

Same point I was trying to make in response to the deceiving "Linfield is the only NWC team that has won a playoff game since 2008" comment.  PLU probably was good enough to win a playoff game in at least three of those seasons (twice beating the SCIAC champion during the regular season), but was blocked by either a) losing to Linfield in the regular season and being left out of Pool C (2010, 8-1) or b) losing to Linfield, getting a Pool C bid, and being rewarded with a first-round rematch against the Cats on the road.

[wildcat11]

I'm 100% on-board in saying the WIAC and MIAC the top of the heap in terms of conference strength.  I was having a little fun with the WIAC playoff record since it doesn't look nearly has impressive if you take UWW out but you're also correct in that the non-UWW WIAC's post 2005 numbers might be much improved if those other teams had those more favorable early round games as a top seed.

If anything, the MIAC has shown the best depth of quality playoff teams of anybody else since 1999. 

[HSCTiger fan]

JK I agree that I did not consider that a few of these teams may have been an elite team victim.

I am confused however, you guys don't think that there are 20 to 30 non elite/very good teams that can all beat each other from one year to the next?  I'm suggesting as clear as I know how that there are many good teams very few elite ones and only a couple of power conferences.

I never used the phrase elite when talking about conferences. Elite teams yes. Elite offenses yes. Elite conferences no. So it's funny how Tartan and JK are thinking the same thing about something I never mentioned. 

[jknezek]

Having one very good/great/elite team in your conference does not make your team's conference a power conference. Is the ACC a power conference in D1?  There are only 2 power conferences in my opinion - WIAC and the MIAC.

Ok. You used power instead of elite. But you set two conferences apart from the rest of D3 as being stand apart better. That's pretty much the definition of elite. If you want to quibble over "2 power conferences" versus "2 elite conferences" in order to try and bolster your point that is your decision.

And yes, I do think there are tiers of D3. I put that in my second to last post. Definition of a bell curve and all that. But if you asked me whether I would lump HSC last year and Linfield into the same category the answer is no. But there certainly becomes a point in D3 where there are a grouping of teams where one will win 7 of 10 instead of 9 of 10 or 19 of 20. When you get to that 7 of 10 grouping and beyond, that is a legitimate peer group for competitive purposes. I don't think HSC takes 3 of 10 from Linfield or any of the teams I consider elite. They might take 1 of 10 or 1 of 20, but who knows? No one can, it's just my opinion.

It's impossible to define and varies for every team. Suffice to say I think of all the ODAC teams HSC would have had the top peer group last year and I expect the same this year. That doesn't necessarily mean I think that peer group includes the elite of D3.

In very basic terms, I think UWW, UMU, UMHB, Wesley, Linfield, NCC, and whoever is hot in the MIAC are going to be elite most years. HSC wouldn't win 3 of 10 against any of these teams last year in my opinion. I'm not sure HSC takes 3 of 10 against the WIAC, MIAC, NWC, or CCIW runner up. After that? I think it starts becoming more plausible though it is a team by team type thing. For example Franklin last year? HSC stands a good chance of getting 3 of 10. The year before? No way.

So that's where I stand. And it's just an opinion but I think it's an entirely reasonable one. HSC just hasn't proved they belong higher. They lost two stinkers last year and that's pretty consistent for them. Not something elite teams do against HSC's typical level of competition. This year has the possibility of being significantly different and Wabash will be an interesting opening test.

[HSCTiger fan]

... I don't think anyone other than UWW, MU, and UMHB are elite. There are 20 to 30 teams that can beat anyone else and HSC is in that mix...

Above was my first quote related to this topic. I never suggested HSC was an elite team.  I do think they have an elite offense. I did suggest they are one of 20 or 30 teams that can beat anyone else. I assume by your references of HSC going 1/10 or 1/20 against the teams you consider elite/upper tier teams you agree.  Was Linfield better than HSC last year. Yes. Could HSC have won - without a doubt. In that group of 20 to 30 teams would be second and maybe third place teams from the conferences so many of you are convinced are so great.

I agree your views are reasonable. If you read my posts more carefully I think you'd see I am not arguing anything more than on a given Saturday anything can happen.  I'm not just arguing this just HSC BUT ALL of the teams that are outside of elite but in that group of 20 to 30. There's a very fine line between very good and great.   I don't think my views are unreasonable either.

[jknezek]

I would give every team in D3 a 1 in something shot at beating any other team. There is always a 1.  Statistically there has to be. Heck I would give UMU a 1 in something shot at beating Alabama. That 1 has to be there. The fact that at some point it becomes statistically irrelevant is not important. The 1 must be there for every possibility. 1 in 10, bad odds. 1 in 20?  Really bad odds for this conversation. Giving HSC a 1 in a large number against someone doesnt mean I think they can win, it just means the other team could suffer from food poisoning or get shaken up by having an accident on the way to the field. Still, the 1 must exist.