FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

But HSC who lost to WL, easily handled CNU who #21 Rowan struggled mightily to beat. Rowan lost a very close game to #23 Salisbury.  Salisbury only lost to #20 Albright (after Albright had a 21 point rally in the 4th) by a single point.  Based on that information alone I feel WL or HSC could be favored over any of those teams. Further if a 4-2 Dubuque (who received 10 pts in the latest poll - less points than both WL and HSC) can manhandled #22 Wartburg, I see no reason why a 6-0 WL could not be favored in a neutral location over Wartburg as well.

First, Pat makes a really good point that "6-0 ODAC team" is not a one-size-fits-all description.  Just because one time a 6-0 team from a conference was ranked does not mean that it will happen every time.  The specifics of who that team played, what's happening elsewhere in the division...there's a lot that goes into that.  Right now, Washington & Lee's biggest win came against Hampden-Sydney in a thriller where they gave up 506 yards and won 35-28 on a touchdown with 2 minutes to go.  HSC played another top-25 team earlier this season and gained 84 yards.  If you're going to float stray examples like "W&L beat HSC who beat CNU who Rowan had a hard time beating" or the similar daisy-chain involving Albright and Salisbury, you also have to consider this one, which is equally relevant.  HSC was soundly and thoroughly beaten by the lone top-25 team they played.  W & L had to work very hard to beat them.

Second, just to address the silliest part of this post: the idea that "4-2 Dubuque beat Wartburg, so 6-0 WL should also be favored against Wartburg" - I can't believe I have to say something so obvious, but you have to look at more than just the team's record.  Dubuque's two losses came against very good teams from two of the nation's best conferences - teams that would he heavily favored to win the ODAC if they were in it.  If W & L had played the same schedule Dubuque had played, they'd (probably) be carrying a couple of losses, too.

I don't think it's impossible for an ODAC team to get ranked, and would love to see W & L work their way into the conversation, but you really have to look at this stuff with more nuance than "they're 6-0, they should be ranked." 

What is actually very important for W & L is making sure they stay undefeated.  Doing so will give them a chance to get a home, winnable playoff game.  Other than HSC's 2013 excitement, the ODAC has struggled in the postseason, in part because the league's penchant for cannibalization has often resulted in an 8-2 or 7-3 Pool A representative, who inevitably gets a tough draw and a road game.  Going 10-0 will give the Generals a home game against a beatable opponent, and playoff wins are ultimately what can buy some national respect for a league.

[jknezek]

Quite a hornets nest I kicked over by saying I WOULD like to see W&L ranked not W&L SHOULD be ranked. They haven't earned it yet in my opinion and this weekend showed why. A top 25 team should bury that RMC squad, not squeak by showing up on offense only in the second half. W&L will get their chance, but only if they keep winning.

That being said, I still maintain they aren't getting anywhere near the benefit of the doubt Guilford got earlier this year. Had Guilford won in Lexington by two they would still be ranked as an undefeated squad. Might even have moved inside the top 20 as other teams lost despite having no othere name wins. But W&L,  even with a second good win, can't crack the top 25 because they didnt start the season with a reputation. That's why I really don't like polls even though I participate in one. Too much rides on inertia and preseason expectations even once the games start.

[Pat Coleman]

Quite a hornets nest I kicked over by saying I WOULD like to see W&L ranked not W&L SHOULD be ranked. They haven't earned it yet in my opinion and this weekend showed why. A top 25 team should bury that RMC squad, not squeak by showing up on offense only in the second half. W&L will get their chance, but only if they keep winning.

My "should" wasn't referring to your post, if that helps. I felt that was pretty clear from my references to the 6-0 ODAC team that HSCTigerFan brought up.

[ExTartanPlayer]

But W&L,  even with a second good win, can't crack the top 25 because they didnt start the season with a reputation. That's why I really don't like polls even though I participate in one. Too much rides on inertia and preseason expectations even once the games start.

Oh, you're absolutely right.  The "anchor-and-adjustment" phenomenon at work.  People don't like to adjust their polls too much from any one iteration to the next so we get bizarre explanations like "I felt it was harsh to penalize them too harshly for one loss" to explain why one previously high-ranked team will be be kept ahead of the team that just beat them.

[HSCTiger fan]

Just to suggest an ODAC team that goes 6-0 should be ranked is pretty incomplete. It doesn't say anything about half of those games -- the non-conference games. It also isn't all that clear about the conference games. Someone could play H-SC, E&H and W&L, or Catholic, Shenandoah and Bridgewater, or some combination of the two. And it doesn't say anything about the rest of Division III, which is also important in the conversation. Just way too many variables.

it's certainly reasonable to suggest a 6-0 WL team who beat the then D3 Football 23rd ranked team should be ranked. There are lot of Top 25 teams that don't have a victory over another top 25 opponent. WL is only a few points away from being ranked. So many of your voters feel pretty good about ranking WL as well.

[HSCTiger fan]

But HSC who lost to WL, easily handled CNU who #21 Rowan struggled mightily to beat. Rowan lost a very close game to #23 Salisbury.  Salisbury only lost to #20 Albright (after Albright had a 21 point rally in the 4th) by a single point.  Based on that information alone I feel WL or HSC could be favored over any of those teams. Further if a 4-2 Dubuque (who received 10 pts in the latest poll - less points than both WL and HSC) can manhandled #22 Wartburg, I see no reason why a 6-0 WL could not be favored in a neutral location over Wartburg as well.

First, Pat makes a really good point that "6-0 ODAC team" is not a one-size-fits-all description.  Just because one time a 6-0 team from a conference was ranked does not mean that it will happen every time.  The specifics of who that team played, what's happening elsewhere in the division...there's a lot that goes into that.  Right now, Washington & Lee's biggest win came against Hampden-Sydney in a thriller where they gave up 506 yards and won 35-28 on a touchdown with 2 minutes to go.  HSC played another top-25 team earlier this season and gained 84 yards.  If you're going to float stray examples like "W&L beat HSC who beat CNU who Rowan had a hard time beating" or the similar daisy-chain involving Albright and Salisbury, you also have to consider this one, which is equally relevant.  HSC was soundly and thoroughly beaten by the lone top-25 team they played.  W & L had to work very hard to beat them.

Second, just to address the silliest part of this post: the idea that "4-2 Dubuque beat Wartburg, so 6-0 WL should also be favored against Wartburg" - I can't believe I have to say something so obvious, but you have to look at more than just the team's record.  Dubuque's two losses came against very good teams from two of the nation's best conferences - teams that would he heavily favored to win the ODAC if they were in it.  If W & L had played the same schedule Dubuque had played, they'd (probably) be carrying a couple of losses, too.

I don't think it's impossible for an ODAC team to get ranked, and would love to see W & L work their way into the conversation, but you really have to look at this stuff with more nuance than "they're 6-0, they should be ranked." 

What is actually very important for W & L is making sure they stay undefeated.  Doing so will give them a chance to get a home, winnable playoff game.  Other than HSC's 2013 excitement, the ODAC has struggled in the postseason, in part because the league's penchant for cannibalization has often resulted in an 8-2 or 7-3 Pool A representative, who inevitably gets a tough draw and a road game.  Going 10-0 will give the Generals a home game against a beatable opponent, and playoff wins are ultimately what can buy some national respect for a league.

WL might argue their biggest win was over the 23rd ranked Guilford Quakers. Which was the only top 25 team they've played.

My argument was in response Ralph Turner's assertion that no ODAC team could be favored over top 25 at a nutral site. I disagreed and used reasonable examples to explain why.  In your first paragraph you use HSC's getting beat badly to a 9th Wabash team as an argument that HSC is not that great of a win for WL. BUT then in your very next paragraph you argue that Dubuque getting stomped by a combined score 76 to 16 by two teams ranked lower than Wabash somehow justifies Wartburg's getting a beat down by Dubuque and Wartburg's 22nd place in the poll. That's a much more "silly" argument than anything I wrote.

[Pat Coleman]

WL is only a few points away from being ranked. So many of your voters feel pretty good about ranking WL as well.

No doubt this is true. However, while it's coachspeak and maybe PR-speak to say W&L beat a Top 25 team, the voters are generally going to look at the poll and note that Guilford isn't ranked. The three or four voters who have Guilford on their ballot, though, definitely see W&L's win as a win vs. a Top 25 team.

it's certainly reasonable to suggest a 6-0 WL team who beat the then D3 Football 23rd ranked team should be ranked.

That would be true if these were standings, but they're rankings, and that's a different animal entirely. You don't get to take over that spot automatically. Each voter gets to make up their own mind on it.

[Ralph Turner]

HSC Tiger fan. thanks for the response.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I guess Saturday is just another example of just how difficult the odac can be; HSC coming from 21 down on the road to win, W&L forced to score in the last minutes of the game to beat a 1-5 RMC squad and GC being taken to the limts at BC.
Anything can/will happen in the crazy conference. Can/will W&L keep it going. It appears to be a two team race to the finish, with W&L and E&H controlling their own destiny, or can HSC run the table and watch W&L drop two its last four games. Who the h@ll knows, but for sure, it will be fun to watch.

[hasanova]

Some folks seem to forget that Guilford's rather good QB was knocked out of the W&L game with a possible concussion at the start of the 2nd quarter and, as a precaution, did not return.  To his credit, the W&L kicker hit a 51-yard FG, the longest in school history ... and GC's kicker missed a 40-yard plus FG.  I was there on a rainy day ... W&L played well and congratulations to the Generals, but everything that could go wrong for the Quakers did.  C'est la vie.

[jknezek]

The funny thing? The best team in the conference, right now, is Guilford in my opinion... They have those two games at year end to see what they are made of. I know the game this weekend was 23-20, but the Quakers never trailed and it was a two score game with a few minutes to go. So Bridgewater getting one of them back just let Guilford run out the clock. The game looks closer than it was. And we all know what playing at Bridgewater is like. Bridgewater and E&H are the toughest places to play in my opinion. Yes, H-SC is usually better, but if you go to Jopson or Selfie, an upset is always on the table.

I don't envy H-SC and E&H with Guilford still looming.

[jknezek]

  You just beat me to it Hasa....

[HSCTiger fan]

Some folks seem to forget that Guilford's rather good QB was knocked out of the W&L game with a possible concussion at the start of the 2nd quarter and, as a precaution, did not return.  To his credit, the W&L kicker hit a 51-yard FG, the longest in school history ... and GC's kicker missed a 40-yard plus FG.  I was there on a rainy day ... W&L played well and congratulations to the Generals, but everything that could go wrong for the Quakers did.  C'est la vie.

As much grief as the Tigers were given last year on this board about limping into the playoffs due to multiple injuries I cannot feel sympathy for the Quakers. I feel sympathy for the player but not the team. You can argue that your QB was out for 3 quarters. HSC could argue that had its RB (Burton) who had started the first 3 games and its 3rd string RB (Cunninham) were both unable to play at WL. If they had Koonce most certainly would not have had 35 carries and maybe he's not as tired and he outruns the WL defender on the 3rd down play. We will never know. I'm sure that WL also had some injured players out in both games.

Injuries are just a part of it.

[jknezek]

I'm not sure the point Hasa was making is sympathy. I think the point he's making is that Guilford now is not the Guilford that lost narrowly to W&L. Who knows how that game goes if Pawlowski stays in, but the point is E&H and H-SC are probably going to face a Guilford team with Pawlowski.

If that is a different kettle of fish, and I think it probably is, then Guilford is going to be a tough out for the Tigers and Wasps to end the season. All that being said, empirically Ferrick against W&L did do worse against W&L than Pawlowski has averaged for the season. His completion percentage of 54% against W&L is below Pawlowski's 63% for the season. Ferrick's Y/A were only 6.2 in Lexington versus Pawlowski's 9.5 for the season. Neither has thrown a pick. So it's possible that, despite the tie score when Pawlowski went out, the Quakers would have gotten more completions for longer yards and won the game.

Like I said before. I don't envy the Tigers and Wasps still staring down Guilford on the schedule.

[regaleagle]

The funny thing? The best team in the conference, right now, is Guilford in my opinion... They have those two games at year end to see what they are made of. I know the game this weekend was 23-20, but the Quakers never trailed and it was a two score game with a few minutes to go. So Bridgewater getting one of them back just let Guilford run out the clock. The game looks closer than it was. And we all know what playing at Bridgewater is like. Bridgewater and E&H are the toughest places to play in my opinion. Yes, H-SC is usually better, but if you go to Jopson or Selfie, an upset is always on the table.

I don't envy H-SC and E&H with Guilford still looming.

nope can't let that go. BC won that ballgame everywhere except on the scoreboard. Yes I'm aware that's all that really counts in the end. It was a 3 point game with 3:00 left when an awful penalty was called on 4th down that gave GC life. Saw it live seen it on film. Player jumping up and down convinced a ref 30 yards away when the one guy on top of the play said incomplete.
We shot ourselves in the foot too many times but moved the ball up and down the field and actually threw it down the field instead of sideways, but hey I would too if my WRs blocked like that.GC won the game but it was no cakewalk and they were fighting hard to not let that last score in. I'll see how good WL is in person this Sat. I watched earlier game when they beat GC and they had a good handle on things when your QB got knocked out.