FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[jknezek]

I think that you make good points, was just trying to look at it through their eyes, as in the end I think W&L was probably as close as you could get to getting a home game. One of these small dominoes maybe was the difference. I know it sucks to not play at home when you think you deserve it.

As for the pairing of Norwich with Albright, I thought that was crap as well. I think Norwich should have been sent to Wesley or Johns Hopkins, both would have been within range. Albright should have gotten a team like Western New England or Framingham. I would have matched Cortland and St. Lawrence as well. But St. Lawrence got shafted, in my mind, to be sent directly to Mount Union in the first round.

Me too. I think this is the equivalent of a 4/5 and W&L just got the 5. I really don't have a problem with that in a vacuum as W&L's schedule is a big wart, but I do have a problem looking at criteria and other teams that are hosting. Oh well. It's not going to get changed and W&L has to live with it. They have done better in each of their 3 previous playoff games, maybe this one will get them over the hump. I still don't think this is the absolute best W&L team I've ever seen, the 2011 team that lost two road games by a TD to a pair of 9-1 playoff teams still holds that distinction for me.

But I do think this is the best shot, so far, W&L has at winning a playoff game. Though I still wouldn't make them a favorite over TMC, especially at TMC...

2006 -- W&L at Wilkes, 42-0 in a mud bowl that heavily favored the lumbering Wilkes team over the spread option Generals (no we weren't going to win on a dry field, but it wouldn't have been a double monkey stomp)
2010 -- W&L at TMC. 42-14. Simply outclassed. That W&L team was ridiculously young and a bit naive. They had a great 3 year run with almost the whole team making 2011 a great team and 2012 a conf champion very good team. Reminds me a bit of this team that is also returning almost every yard from scrimmage next year and a significant portion of the defense.
2012 -- W&L at Hobart. 38-20. First half was quite a game. The bus legs and a being a bit over matched showed in the second half.
2015 -- W&L at TMC ??

W&L has now been matched with playoff opponents that have gone 40-0 in the regular season. Uggh.

[SaintsFAN]

All right. Trying to get over my fit of pique. W&L has an 11th game, and that is something to celebrate, regardless of how they got jobbed out of it being in Lexington.

So... TMC has been an offensive juggernaut this season. They haven't put less than 36 points on the board all season. W&L has only allowed 36 points once, that was opening week when Averett got some late points and hit exactly that number, and only one other game have the Generals allowed over 30, a late score for Catholic. So when the first team defense has been on the field, W&L has given yards but not points. They will have to keep that trend going against TMC to have a shot in this game which will be difficult as TMC ranks 4th in Red Zone offense and 5th in scoring offense.

Offensively both teams are good. TMC ranks 7th in total offense, W&L 10th. TMC ranks about 50th against the rush. W&L is the top ranked rushing team in DIII by almost 100 yards per game on average. I think W&L will need to slow this game down a bit. Neither team has been a TOP hog, with W&L ranking about 100th and TMC ranking about 170th in DIII, so both rely more on big plays and quick strikes to generate large numbers of points. W&L will need to use their offense to grind out drives and shorten the game, keeping TMC off the field and making them work a little harder for the points they will score.

If this game turns into a complete track meet, I don't like the General's chances. But if W&L can hold TMC around 35-40 points, I think the offense can be efficient enough to give the Generals a chance. As usual, W&L will need between 300 and 400 rushing yards and 50 to 150 passing yards. If they can get in the mid range of those numbers I'll be thrilled. With TMC only allowing about 300 yards per game, W&L is going to have to do something the Saints aren't capable of handling to get those numbers up.

I'll skip the obvious about penalties and turnovers, but W&L can't afford them. An option offense can't make up the gap or get behind the chains. Get out early and grind it out Generals. Make them chase. It'll be a long afternoon if W&L falls behind early.

A bit concerned Charlie Nelson hasn't played two weeks in a row. He picked up a knock late against E&H, frankly he shouldn't have been in the game at that point, so I hope he can come back for this game. Though I will say Matt Sgro has been a more than capable back up, I'd like to see Charlie running the game plan to its full potential.

I do wonder about next year. Charlie will be a senior, Matt a junior. Matt brings something a little different to the table and I could see Coach Abel trying to find a way to have them both on the field at the same time.

Nice post, jknezek.  I'll post my keys to the game tonight.  I am looking at the starters for W&L - does anyone know where I can find a recent two-deep?  It looks like the Generals have had injuries on the OL, LB and RB - judging from the Kickoff a Preview of the Gens written by Mr Turer.

I will say this collection of talent is our best and deepest team since the early to mid-90s when we had a bunch of D1 transfers.  They may even be better than those teams.  I've been following/playing for TMC since 1993, when I was a junior in HS.

[ExTartanPlayer]

As for the pairing of Norwich with Albright, I thought that was crap as well. I think Norwich should have been sent to Wesley or Johns Hopkins, both would have been within range. Albright should have gotten a team like Western New England or Framingham. I would have matched Cortland and St. Lawrence as well. But St. Lawrence got shafted, in my mind, to be sent directly to Mount Union in the first round.

Somebody had to get sent to Mount, and since Norwich is too far away, it was just going to fall to the next-lowest team from the East.  If you match St. Lawrence against Cortland, you have to find someplace for Salisbury to play without disrupting another matchup.  Ideally it would be Norwich @ Mount with Albright playing St. Lawrence and this would look a lot less weird.

But I agree with the rest.  I'm not sure why Norwich is playing Albright with Wesley and JHU both getting a tougher first-round game.  Certainly agree that Framingham@Albright, WNE@Wesley and Norwich@Hopkins would have been a slightly more logical way to put that bracket together.

Franklin hosting ONU is a weird/fluky one, too, where you can look at the matchup and say "Wait, why is 10-0 W&L playing at 10-0 TMC while those two 8-2 clowns pair off?"  Them's the breaks.

[pg04]

As for the pairing of Norwich with Albright, I thought that was crap as well. I think Norwich should have been sent to Wesley or Johns Hopkins, both would have been within range. Albright should have gotten a team like Western New England or Framingham. I would have matched Cortland and St. Lawrence as well. But St. Lawrence got shafted, in my mind, to be sent directly to Mount Union in the first round.

Somebody had to get sent to Mount, and since Norwich is too far away, it was just going to fall to the next-lowest team from the East.  If you match St. Lawrence against Cortland, you have to find someplace for Salisbury to play without disrupting another matchup.  Ideally it would be Norwich @ Mount with Albright playing St. Lawrence and this would look a lot less weird.

You'd think after being familiar with the way D3 operates for over a 15 years now would keep me from being surprised but sometimes I try to wish away the distance issues. It's true that I can't really think of anyone else to play Mount if it isn't St. Lawrence.

[jknezek]

Nice post, jknezek.  I'll post my keys to the game tonight.  I am looking at the starters for W&L - does anyone know where I can find a recent two-deep?  It looks like the Generals have had injuries on the OL, LB and RB - judging from the Kickoff a Preview of the Gens written by Mr Turer.

As far as I know, W&L does not post a 2 deep. Other than Charlie Nelson not playing the last two games, I think we are relatively healthy. Marshal Hollerith missed the Catholic game but was back in the line up this week. We lost Evan Hinkle (RB) and Jimmy Dugan (RB) back in October I believe, though I think Dugan is back just finding it hard to get carries maybe? Could be wrong about that. I don't think Hinkle has played since Guilford on 10/3.

The rest of the ridiculously deep stable of running backs is still there. Hinkle and Dugan are good weapons and missed, but the way W&L divvies up carries there hasn't been much drop off. Brand, Maxwell and Chess all seem to rotate starts, Hollerith sometimes get listed as a starter as well. Behind them there is still Johnston, averaging 7.5 ypc on 36 rushes trying to break into the lineup. Sherman, Malm and even the senior Stanfield who had two+ season cut short for injuries but has gotten some snaps the last couple games, see action as well. RB isn't a problem.

To be honest, with the exception of Nelson, we started the same offense and defense vs H-SC (game 6) that we started vs. Shenandoah. I do think we lost a Senior tackle in September or early October (Karlson) but have played a lot of the season without him. I can't think of much on the defense we are missing, but I could have forgotten someone (and if I have I'm sorry, you guys deserve recognition too!).

Unlike the last two years, W&L has been relatively healthy. That's made a big difference.

[jknezek]

If this game turns into a complete track meet, I don't like the General's chances. But if W&L can hold TMC around 35-40 points

Good post.  I just have to laugh at how a game where you hold the opposition to around 35-40 points is not a track meet, lol.  Man, times have changed.  40 points used to be a good offense's two-game output!  Now it passes for a merely average day.

Offense is the order of the day up and down football levels. I do think teams are adapting in different ways. I often feel W&L is ok letting teams march down to about the 30 before they stiffen up on the compressed field. Don't let teams get the big play from deep, give them 7-15 yards from their end to the 30, then try and buckle down. With kicking games in DIII, if you can keep them outside of the 10 yard line you stand a good chance of keeping any points off the board.

But yeah, teams average a lot of yards these days. Makes red zone efficiency really important on both sides of the ball.

[wildcat11]

d3football.com says Whitworth and Guilford had nearly identical resumes and I agree, but Whitworth lost to Linfield 52-10 and Guilford lost their only game 20-17 in the rain and on the road when our star QB was knocked out with a possible concussion early in the second quarter and the W&L Generals hit a school-record 51-yard FG.  I understand LC is RR #2 and W&L is RR #5, but this is a classic case of a team that got robbed.

I'd say it's pretty clear Linfield is better than Whitworth.  I don't think that's so obvious in Guilford's case with W&L.  I also don't understand how at-large teams such as ONU got in with 2 losses and SJF got in with three!  They say life isn't fair and here's your proof.  Boo NCAA ... you blew it!  Linfield and Whitworth are paired again because of the NCAA's inane travel rules. No offense meant to Whitworth, but I'd like to see Linfield lay another beatdown on the Pirates just to prove a team that gets trounced by 42 is probably not going to fare very well in a rematch.

C'est la vie.   On to hoops for me.

Yeah, but man, Guilford didn't play anyone nearly on the level of Linfield. Congrats on not losing by 42 but good teams lose to Linfield and St. Thomas and Mount Union and UW-Firstplaceteamnamehere by 42 points. That's what the rest of D-III is like -- if you just play in the ODAC/USAC pond, you might get away with some things that you don't when playing a top seed type.

Linfeild, St Thomas, MU, UW is not a representation of "what the rest of D-III is like". If anything those teams are the direct opposite of what the rest of D-III is like.

It probably help "just a little" that Whitworth's head coach was on the national playoff selection board this year.   

[Ralph Turner]

Part of the problem is that W&L and the ODAC are collateral damage of the geographical proximity in the South Region.
What would a South Region bracket look like?

#1 JHU vs #8 out-of-region fly-in
#2 Thomas More vs #7 Hendrix
#3 HSU vs #6 Huntingdon
#4 UMHB vs #5 W&L.

We ASC fans would love to play this bracket instead of facing Linfield, UWW etc too soon.

[Ralph Turner]

For that matter, I would even prefer #5 UMHB at #4 W&L to this bracket.

[jknezek]

We don't go by regions Ralph. Within 500 miles of W&L there was Albright, Cortland, Franklin and ONU. Two of those teams, with losses, are hosting. Now Cortland has a huge SOS, but several losses, a position W&L was in 2012 when they got shipped to Hobart. Albright has 96 SOS, better than W&L, but a loss. Franklin is a mess and behind W&L in SOS. And I'm not talking about a second OAC team. That just shouldn't have happened except they were on the board so long people got tired of looking at them... Either way, a decent case can be made that, especially ONU and Franklin, should have been split and sent to W&L and TMC. There is no reason, none, that Franklin is hosting over W&L and no reason to send W&L to TMC with ONU floating around.

[Ralph Turner]

Thx for the Franklin ONU examples.

[ExTartanPlayer]

We don't go by regions Ralph. Within 500 miles of W&L there was Albright, Cortland, Franklin and ONU. Two of those teams, with losses, are hosting. Now Cortland has a huge SOS, but several losses, a position W&L was in 2012 when they got shipped to Hobart. Albright has 96 SOS, better than W&L, but a loss. Franklin is a mess and behind W&L in SOS. And I'm not talking about a second OAC team. That just shouldn't have happened except they were on the board so long people got tired of looking at them... Either way, a decent case can be made that, especially ONU and Franklin, should have been split and sent to W&L and TMC. There is no reason, none, that Franklin is hosting over W&L and no reason to send W&L to TMC with ONU floating around.

Can ONU/Franklin be driven to TMC/W&L?

If so, then I agree that's a major goof.  I assumed neither of those teams could drive to W&L.

[jknezek]

We don't go by regions Ralph. Within 500 miles of W&L there was Albright, Cortland, Franklin and ONU. Two of those teams, with losses, are hosting. Now Cortland has a huge SOS, but several losses, a position W&L was in 2012 when they got shipped to Hobart. Albright has 96 SOS, better than W&L, but a loss. Franklin is a mess and behind W&L in SOS. And I'm not talking about a second OAC team. That just shouldn't have happened except they were on the board so long people got tired of looking at them... Either way, a decent case can be made that, especially ONU and Franklin, should have been split and sent to W&L and TMC. There is no reason, none, that Franklin is hosting over W&L and no reason to send W&L to TMC with ONU floating around.

Can ONU/Franklin be driven to TMC/W&L?

If so, then I agree that's a major goof.  I assumed neither of those teams could drive to W&L.

Per TES

Franklin to W&L, 477 miles.
ONU to W&L, 419 miles.

ONU to TMC, 151 miles
Franklin to TMC, 107 miles.

W&L to TMC? 378 miles. 

Stupid committee...

Trying to get over it, really. One more game!!!!

[hasanova]

Jk

Congrats on a great season and I agree, W&L got hosed.

Hasa

9-1 is a great season, my fears about the at-large were realized.

odac has earned no respect nationally. maybe W&L can do something about that this year.

Another frustrating end to the hsc season. maybe next year. thanksgiving has officially been ruined AGAIN !!!!

Thanks, it was a great season.  DI 9-1 and 24th in final poll, you get a great bowl.  DIII, zero.  Oh well.  I'm pretty sure the Guilford AD and HC know the scheduling cost us this season.  I get it ... beating a team such as Greensboro by 64 doesn't count as much as playing and, hopefully, beating a tougher opponent by a smaller margin.  Schools in Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and New York are surrounded by potential DIII opponents.  We are on the periphery of the geographic footprint ... there are only three possible opponents in NC (all in USASAC), none in SC, none in WV, two in GA (one also USASAC), two in AL (one also is USASAC) and none in FL.   Of the two VA schools not in the USASAC or ODAC, CNU is the only one that probably helps SOS ... SVU is on and off the schedule.

[jknezek]

And it's going to get worse, Hasa, if we don't find a replacement for Catholic. I really hope the ODAC is looking into that. I also hope they are looking into an ODAC/USASAC or ODAC/SAA type challenge ala the CC/MAC post season games this year. Guilford/Maryville for some bragging rights this week would be a fun end to the season.