FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[jknezek]

jk

Congrats. Great year for the Generals. B'ball in the odac is down, at least in my opinion, which makes it even more concerning why W&L struggles in that sport. Personally I look forward to the day W&L begins to struggle a little in football !!!!

We struggled 2 of the last 3 years! How much more you want?

[tigerFanAlso2]

9 out of 10

[jknezek]

9 out of 10

Yeesh you H-SC guys are greedy. Best conference team of the last 15 years and still wishing everyone else was weaker! 

[HSCTiger fan]

9 out of 10

Yeesh you H-SC guys are greedy. Best conference team of the last 15 years and still wishing everyone else was weaker! 

WL and HSC have won 9 of last 10 ODAC championships. Is there a team this year ready to step up to the challenge?  I see it being either WL or HSC again in 16.

[jknezek]

9 out of 10

Yeesh you H-SC guys are greedy. Best conference team of the last 15 years and still wishing everyone else was weaker! 

WL and HSC have won 9 of last 10 ODAC championships. Is there a team this year ready to step up to the challenge?  I see it being either WL or HSC again in 16.

This could be a year to watch out for RMC. Other than JHU and Guilford they were right there all last year and were pretty young. Lot of momentum could carry over from the 3-0 finish and I could easily see them starting the year 5-0 before traveling to E&H. To me, RMC looks a lot like W&L heading into last season. They do have to go to Lexington and to H-SC, but The Game hasn't been much of an RMC problem the last five years.

I do think it's going to be like most years in the ODAC. E&H could be good enough to surprise. They have the athletes but, at least from what I saw last year, not the mentality. Guilford loses a lot, but with the way Coach R recruited I wouldn't be surprised if they had the pieces to fill back in. H-SC will reload, W&L brings back a ton. That's most of the conference I think with a reasonable shot to be the champs.

I don't expect much from Catholic and I don't have a feel for Bridgewater. They seem perennially expected to be good, and then turn out mediocre. Shenandoah has some good pieces, but I didn't see much out of them last year that has me thinking they've turned a corner. Other than Catholic they only stayed within one score of H-SC.

I'm not thinking we will see 7-0 again for the conf champion. More like 6-1 as usual. Too many good teams. Probably no great one.

[tigerFanAlso2]

HSC 6-1
W&L 6-1
RMC 5-2
E&H 5-2
BC 4-3
GC 4-3
SU 2-5
CAU 1-6

Ok JK, tear this apart. Actually I have no idea but this could be a fun conversation to include Hasa and TigerFan

[jknezek]

HSC 6-1
W&L 6-1
RMC 5-2
E&H 5-2
BC 4-3
GC 4-3
SU 2-5
CAU 1-6

Ok JK, tear this apart. Actually I have no idea but this could be a fun conversation to include Hasa and TigerFan

Well the easiest way to tear it apart is to send you back to remedial math!  For every game a team wins against a conference rival, there is one winner and one loser. So overall, the whole conference has to go .500. You've set up a scenario where conference teams go 33-23 against each other. Has to be 28-28. You need to find 5 more losses and 5 fewer wins.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I asked you to tear it apart, not me !!!!!!

HSC   6-1
W&L   6-1
GC      4-3
RMC   4-3
E&H    3-4
BC      3-4
SU      2-5
CAU    0-7

[jknezek]

I asked you to tear it apart, not me !!!!!!

HSC   6-1
W&L   6-1
GC      4-3
RMC   4-3
E&H    3-4
BC      3-4
SU      2-5
CAU    0-7

I did include an emojii... But anyway, it's plausible. I'll go a step further since it's early and no one will remember come Nov anyway...

6-1 W&L -- W&L loses by surprise at Guilford
5-2 HSC -- loses at W&L and home in The Game
5-2 RMC -- loses at W&L and at E&H
4-3 E&H -- loses at W&L, at HSC, home for Guilford
3-4 Guilford -- loses at H-SC, at RMC, at Shenandoah, home for BC
2-5 BC -- loses home for H-SC, at RMC, home for E&H, at Guilford, and home for W&L
2-5 SU -- loses at RMC, at E&H, at Bridgewater, home for HSC, at W&L
1-6 Catholic -- beats BC at home in their last ever ODAC conference game

Things that ring true for me. W&L has a let down game. Last year it was RMC but they squeaked it out. Otherwise, their home/away schedule sets up really well. H-SC struggles in The Game. RMC struggles on the road. Guilford wins some big games, loses some winnable games as you'd expect from a team with good but new pieces. I think swapping Guilford and E&H is reasonable. I have no idea about BC. SU's home/away sucks for them. Catholic remains terrible.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I can almost stomach the loss to W&L, but if we don't beat Macon again this year, I'm not sure how I will react.
Enough is enough already with The Game. So please redo your little write up, keep us at 5-2 but please have a happy ending for us in The Game.

[jknezek]

It's funny. It's hard to do this year because of the way home/away sets up. For example, W&L gets HSC, RMC, and E&H at home. So in my estimation, they get 3 of the top 5 ODAC teams at home, with the only road trip to Guilford. Similarly HSC gets RMC, E&H, and Guilford at home. So again, that's 3 of the top 5. RMC gets the shaft, getting only Guilford at home, so they road trip to 3 of the top 5. E&H has a split and poor Guilford goes on the road for all but W&L.

In other words, as you look at it, you need to start calling home upsets to do anything but slot W&L and H-SC at 6-1 or 5-2. So if H-SC goes 5-2, they are going to most likely have a home upset (or a complete breakdown somewhere). The most likely home upset, given recent history and my faith in RMC, is The Game.

My hands are tied...

For RMC, however, it is worse. They carry a lot of momentum through the first 5 games, but then it gets tough in a hurry with 3 road games at top half ODAC teams and a home game against the last of the top 5 (plus road game at Catholic).

Then you look at Guilford. At HSC, home for W&L back to back. At RMC and at E&H to close out. Those are tough stretches.

Of course if RMC stinks, or E&H and Bridgewater switch places, the whole ratio of home/away versus top/bottom of the ODAC changes radically.

[tigerFanAlso2]

You are forcing my hand so here you go; RMC will not beat HSC in 2016

[jknezek]

You are forcing my hand so here you go; RMC will not beat HSC in 2016

That's the spirit!

[HSCTiger fan]

The thing about "The Game" has been this.  RMC treats it as their super bowl each year.  HSC has not.  2010 HSC needed to win to go to playoffs. HSC won. 
2011 HSC already had won the ODAC regardless of "The Game" RMC won. 
2012 HSC comes off 4 overtime loss to WL, with no ODAC to play for RMC wins. 
2013 With ODAC at stake and despite 5 turnovers HSC wins
2014 Without Holton Walker and Johnny Moore - RMC wins a game that doesn't matter in ODAC
2015 WL has lock on ODAC and RMC wins again.
2016 ?

Pedro makes "The Game" the end all, be all game. Last year it was the difference in RMC having 2 losing seasons in a row. Marty does not. Example:  When "The Game" has mattered for the ODAC or when playoffs are assured- HSC has lights installed for practice. When "The Game" has not matter for ODAC or playoffs they haven't. 

I know "The Game" means a lot to the alumni (maybe everything) but right now HSC coaches care more about winning ODAC's. 

[tigerFanAlso2]

well if you are going to the playoffs, you want to go with some momentum not after losing to your rival.
2013 is a prime example, we beat RMC, beat MC in first round, lots of momentum in our favor, travel cross country and played the #2 team in the country and played them well.

Fast forward to 2014, lost to RMC, travel to Wesley and played perhaps the worst game since Marty arrived in 1999.
2011, lost to RMC, traveled to Centre for first round and lost to a team we should have/could have beaten.

Over all record determines playoff pairings/need to win the last game to get consideration for home field/lesser quality opponent.

Plus, the Alumni really get pissed when RMC has their way with us, including myself !!!!!!