FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[Jeremybozz]

   My only point is that if BC is #14 in the coaches poll Ferrum should be top 25 and they might be this week. If BC is #20 in the D3 poll then Ferrum should be in the top 30.

[e h dad]

bcsportswriter---Thanks!!!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

New poll.

[narch]

Since BC and Ferrum have 3 common opponents lets see how they fared:

Ferrum 41-7 over Guilford.
Ferrum 29-13 over E&H
Ferrum 34-13 over Shen.

BC 62-46 over GC
BC 31-17 over E&H
BC 49-20 over Shen.

Ferrum +71
BC +59
   
I rest my case.

jeremyboyzz - that's interesting analysis...maybe bc is overrated    - seriously though, i think ferrum moving up 3-4 spots with a bye week is pretty good - i know they jumped over wesley, who had previously been in the top 25 - did a lot of the teams just outside of the top 25, but ahead of fc lose?...if not, you can't expect much gain - you can argue that fc should have been ranked higher to begin with (which, by the way, has already been done ad nauseum by the fc fans), but i don't think that you can expect an idle team to move up more than 3 or 4 spots unless a lot of teams in front of them lose

[badbadman]

"I think most sportswriters would recognize that Ohio Northern did something to deserve passing Bridgewater. Whether Augustana did is up for debate -- then again, I've spoken to more than one coach in the area who has seen the Augustana/Catholic video and said Augustana would win the ODAC hands-down, so I'm not worried about them passing Bridgewater per se."

Generally, I agree with Pat's comment although viewing film on common opponents doesn't really tell too much.  Who would have thought ONU would have beaten MUC if they viewed MUC's victory (70-0) over John Carroll and John Carroll's victory (50-25) over ONU.

[algernon]

There certainly is more parity in the ODAC this year, especially as the season progresses, with the exception of the Emory & Henry Wasps.  Consider this:  W&L has won 3 of its last 4, beating HSC by a touchdown ....  Randolph-Macon has won 2 in a row now, with 24-point wins over both Emory & Henry and McDaniel ....  and Catholic has won 2 of its last 4 games, losing by only very small margins to W&L and HSC.  So what are the chances that Bridgewater will lose to W&L in Lexington on Saturday, to Randolph-Macon the following week, given that they've beaten a McDaniel team that the Eagles couldn't, and then to Catholic, which has come close to beating both the Generals and the Tigers?

[religion_major]

You can dream algernon.  BC will not lose all three of those games.  One could argue that ODAC parity might lead to one BC loss, but not all three.  You can compare common opponetts all that you want.  BC lost to McDaniel because they turned the ball over three times in the second half.  McDaniel has since lost their top two quarterbacks and went in the tank.  Imagine BC playing with Nick Lincoln as their starting quarterback rather than Lewis or Highfill.  RMC beat a McDaniel team playing with its third string quarterback. 

Go BC. Get 'r done

[skoaltrain]

algernon;  No excuses as to why Bridgewater lost to McDaniel.  And I would agree that there is parity in the ODAC as long as you exclude Bridgewater from that list.  The good thing about the upcoming three weekends is Bridgewater actually has to play all three games meaning it will be decided on the field.  All this talk is just plain rhetoric and doesn't amount to much until the games are over.  We'll see who our first round playoff opponent is come November 13th and I'm sure we'll represent the ODAC well in the playoffs.

[Jeremybozz]

BC is averaging 44 points a game. The Eagles averaged 42.8 a game in 2001 and 38.4 in 2000.
   I realize those 2000 and 2001 stats included the playoffs but still impressive.

[muchacho]

As to parity in the ODAC. Exclude Bridgewater at the top, unless W&L does something special this weekend, and Emory and Henry at the bottom. Otherwise the conference is a lot closer than in previous years. Spots 2-5 in the conference appear to be completely up for grabs A lot of games for most teams could have gone either way.

HSC(3-2) 47-45 over Guilford. 28-21 over Catholic, 38-34 loss to W&L and 31-24 loss to BC. Very close to being 5-0 in conference, and also close to being 1-4.

Catholic(1-2) wins 28-24 over RMC. Loses 28-21 to HSC and 27-24 to W&L. Each game could have gone the other way in the last minute. Catholic could be 0-3 or 3-0 in conference.

Guilford (1-2) Lost by 2 to HSC, beat W&L by 2. Could be 2-1, or 0-3.

W&L(3-1) Beat Catholic in last 10 seconds. Lost to Guilford in last 10 seconds. Beat Hampden Sydney with less than a minute. Could be 1-3 or 4-0 very easily.

[algernon]

BC is averaging 44 points a game. The Eagles averaged 42.8 a game in 2001 and 38.4 in 2000.
   I realize those 2000 and 2001 stats included the playoffs but still impressive.

2000:  BC's average for/against was 38-20 (18 point spread)
2001:  BC's average for/against was 43-23 (20 point spread)

2005:  BC's average for/against is 44-31 (13 point spread)

Comparative stats would look even worse, except that Bridgewater's regular season schedule isn't as tough as it was in 2000 or 2001 -- this year's Eagles' non-conference schedule involves 2 games against teams with losing records and only one against a non-conference team with a winning record, which they lost.

Also, the 2000 point spread of 18 points includes 2 wins and 2 losses (either before or during the tournament) against 4 teams that made the NCAA (Western Maryland, Emory & Henry, Washington & Jefferson, Trinity).  The 2001 point spread of 20 points includes wins (either before or during the tournament) against 4 teams that made the NCAA Tournament -- Western Maryland, Trinity, Widener, Rowan.  This year's point spread of just 13 points includes no wins against any teams that are likely to make the NCAA Tournament.

[algernon]

As to parity in the ODAC. Exclude Bridgewater at the top, unless W&L does something special this weekend, and Emory and Henry at the bottom. Otherwise the conference is a lot closer than in previous years. Spots 2-5 in the conference appear to be completely up for grabs A lot of games for most teams could have gone either way.

I don't see any reason Bridgewater should be excluded at the top.  They've beaten 0-7 Emory & Henry and, otherwise, have only a win in the last minute against HSC and a win against Guilford.  It's a little early to be excluding them at the top, since they haven't even played 2 of the 4 teams included in your analysis.  Here's the piece you might have included on Bridgewater:

Bridgewater (3-0): 31-24 over HSC, with the game decided in the last minute.  Very easily could be 2-1 in the conference, with a game coming up against 3-1 Washington and Lee.

[Jeremybozz]

   Algernon:  Great post but the ODAC is much more balanced than 2001 overall. In 2000 the Wasps were pretty good and there was some balance in the ODAC.
  Still, for a defense facing Lutz, Cruz and Richardson was perhaps an even more daunting challenge than facing  this seasons offense.

[algernon]

All this talk is just plain rhetoric and doesn't amount to much until the games are over.

Agreed!

However, barring the totally unexpected, the winner of this weekend's game in Lexington will be representing the ODAC in the playoffs.

[muchacho]

Good analysis Algernon. It shows that despite their offensive numbers this year, BC isn't as tough a team as their peak years. Unfortunately for the rest of the ODAC, it is most likely good enough to get them the conference championship. If BC gets through W&L, then the conference's top spot should be locked up. However, how will they do against other playoff teams? Should be interesting to find out.