FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HSCTiger fan]

Now you are being completely and entirely unreasonable.

[jknezek]

Now you are being completely and entirely unreasonable.

To a degree, yes. But it's also completely true. That's how probabilities work. It's why people win lotteries. There is always a 1, regardless of the odds on the other side. For everything that is possible under the laws of physics in this universe there is a 1 in something chance that it occurs. That's why I defined a "peer group" as a 3 in 10 chance of winning, not a 1 in 10. The 1 chance in a lot is always there, but it doesn't mean it is substantially likely. As the "a lot" turns into enormous turns into ridiculous the impossibility of the event changes, but does it really matter at that point? So defining HSC's ability to win a game on any given Saturday against a peer group has to draw a line somewhere. We can each choose where since it is impossible to a) know how the games would turn out over a large sample or b) come to an agreement on what probabilities correctly define the group...

[tigerfanalso]

TigerFan

I've watched them play too often to think HSC offense is an "elite" group. Two things need to happen before they can be called elite (in my opinion). 1) a much improved running game and 2) greatly reduce number of turnovers.
If this happens, watch out for the Tigers.

[Michael Herbert]

TigerFan

I've watched them play too often to think HSC offense is an "elite" group. Two things need to happen before they can be called elite (in my opinion). 1) a much improved running game and 2) greatly reduce number of turnovers.
If this happens, watch out for the Tigers.

BAZINGA!!

[HSCTiger fan]

Probabilities? Laws of physics in the Universe? This is freaking athletics. Where crazy s**t happens. I know it can and does - so do you. I don't think a loss by UWW to a top 30 team be it HSC or some other team would be the upset you're making it out to be. The best team don't always win and the loss is not typically because they all had food poisoning.  Am I the only that believes this? 

Many of you are trying to convince me of the greatness of teams I bet many of you have never seen play a down of football.  Most seem to think Linfield is elite. Ok that's the only team I have seen HSC play in that category. They beat us in a game most of the HSC players felt they should (not could) have won. Maybe it was a freak thing if HSC played them 200 times maybe that was the closest they were going to get. It doesn't matter. What matters is the coaches and the players at HSC believe they would win if given another shot and that's good enough for me.  I would not go watch them play if they did not think they could win. If they felt that way they've already lost. Ever heard the quote "The man who thinks he can and the man who thinks he can't are both right."?

Tigerfanalso, I go back to what I said earlier if to determine elite is to consider the top 10% then HSC's offense is in the conversation. If not elite they're not far from it.

[wildcat11]

What matters is the coaches and the players at HSC believe they would win if given another shot and that's good enough for me. 

And most Linfield people feel if we played HSC again the 'Cats would win by 28. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

[jknezek]

Probabilities? Laws of physics in the Universe? This is freaking athletics. Where crazy s**t happens. I know it can and does - so do you. I don't think a loss by UWW to a top 30 team be it HSC or some other team would be the upset you're making it out to be. The best team don't always win and the loss is not typically because they all had food poisoning.  Am I they only that believes this? 

It's really not that important. And yes, crazy stuff does happen, but not often. For example, UMU is 125-1 in the OAC since 1999. That's a large sample size that tells us that an elite team like UMU rarely loses to a non-elite team. So the laws of probability do apply even in sports. We just prefer to focus on Buff State versus UWW rather than the reality of UMHB being 107-6 versus the ASC since 2000 and of Linfield being 72-4 versus the NWC in the same period. We ignore the overwhelming evidence of how often the odds are correct in favor of giving an outside credence to our favorite underdog winning on "any given Saturday."

I get that you think HSC can win against anyone on any given Saturday, and statistically you are correct. There is always a chance. The reality, however, is that you could grow to be a very old man before it ever happened, especially with the infrequency that HSC is likely to face an elite team. Then again, of all HSC's teams in recent years, this is probably the best shot.

I don't think a loss by UWW to a top 30 team be it HSC or some other team would be the upset you're making it out to be.

About the above quote you are simply incorrect. The playoffs every year show this. UWW's only playoff losses are in the finals to UMU. In their 8 trips to the playoffs, which include 40 games, a statistically significant sample for our purposes, they have NEVER lost to a team that wasn't elite. To use an even larger sample, we can look at UMU's playoff history. Since 1993, UMU has lost a playoff game only to the National Champion or the Runner Up. They have never lost to "a top 30 team". That spans 20 years of playoffs. Something more than 75 games. NEVER a loss to anyone but the champ or runner-up.

That top 30 upset you think isn't all that rare? It is insanely rare. In fact, in the case of these two teams, at this sample size, it disproves my theory that there is always a 1, because it has never happened. Personally I think that's because it's still a small sample, but still you have to understand just how rare that kind of upset would be. The statistics prove it, even if you wish it weren't true.

[D3MAFAN]

What matters is the coaches and the players at HSC believe they would win if given another shot and that's good enough for me. 

And most Linfield people feel if we played HSC again the 'Cats would win by 28. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Alright, Alright. Last year was last year with some great football action with a few upsets and a lot close encounters with many traditionally high ranked teams coming close to defeat to some other quality teams. Having watch many teams within D III, H-SC has a prolific offense and is fun to watch, which included last years two playoff games. Nevertheless, I had the opportunity to watch Linfield Defense dominate on a week in and week out basis, which they continued into the playoffs. I think last year matchup only help each team respect each program more and hopefully help each team improve for years to come and reaching each teams goal of winning a national championship.

With the many nice matchups this upcoming season, including H-SC against Wabash and Linfield vs. Chapman it setups to be a great Division III season.

[tigerfanalso]

TigerFan

You know I pull for them as much as you, but an elite offense does not get shut out by CNU for 59 minutes 30 seconds and that happened for the two reasons I mentioned above; lack of running game and too many turnovers. If we can improve in those two areas, watch out for the Tigers.

[HSCTiger fan]

Congrats to Hampden Sydney players QB Nash Nance, WR Holton Walker, DB Shreve Rolhe and LB John Moore for being named to USA College Football's preseason all-American team.
http://www.usacollegefootball.org/14D3.htm

Further congrats go to Nance and Walker for being named to the BSN preseason all-American team as well.
http://beyondsportsnetwork.com/blog/2014/07/21/bsn-2014-preseason-d3-america-football-team/

[Scots13]

What matters is the coaches and the players at HSC believe they would win if given another shot and that's good enough for me. 

And most Linfield people feel if we played HSC again the 'Cats would win by 28. Woulda, coulda, shoulda.

I feel like most people that support a team that was forecasted to win by a decent margin, and didn't or had a tough go at it for a good portion of the game would justify the score the same way. It's like me saying if it hadn't had been 0% visibility at Sewanee last year, Maryville would have won by a larger amount. Who really cares? Linfield beat HSC in the 2nd round...8 months ago. You made it to the next round, as most predicted. Congrats. Not winning by 28 has no effect. Most would take a one point margin of victory in a playoff game and be tickled to death. I know I would.

[wildcat11]

I'm trilled after any victory.  I didn't know there was a time limit in talking about football games? 

That game played 8 months ago has been a launching point for HSC's 2014 preseason ranking, deserved hype, and expectations for a banner 2014.  It seems that game played 8 months ago has led to a number of pages of fun and passionate debate (I respect HSCTiger fan's passion and have enjoyed our exchanges/banter).

[HSCTiger fan]

Wildcat I'd expect you guys to think you'd beat HSC by 28. How would that be any different than what you thought last year?  I enjoyed hanging around the NWC conference board last year and debating with you guys too.

[tigerfanalso]

Don't get soft and start congratulating each other !!!!! Keep the debate/banner going as there is nothing else to talk about until September 7th. Linfield game helped prepare us for the Wabash game, so even though HSC got beat in the Pacific Northwest, that experience will help prepare us as we travel to play another top program. I know Wabash has a good defense but I don't see how it can pretty or even as good as Linfield's D. I'll let ya'll know on the 7th.

[Scots13]

I'm trilled after any victory.  I didn't know there was a time limit in talking about football games? 

That game played 8 months ago has been a launching point for HSC's 2014 preseason ranking, deserved hype, and expectations for a banner 2014.  It seems that game played 8 months ago has led to a number of pages of fun and passionate debate (I respect HSCTiger fan's passion and have enjoyed our exchanges/banter).

When you say you should've won by 28, you're being dismissive and it rubs me the wrong way. Looking into a game, yes: you can say "we should win by 28"--people get paid big bucks to do that.  But when you played the game on the schedule the outcome is the outcome. The 2013 Linfield team was not 28 points better than the 2013 HSC team. Shoulda woulda coulda is not a factor. The outcome is/was concrete. I, and maybe others, sit back and look at the d3 landscape and see the same top 7 or so and it seems like unless they play one another then the games played should be blowouts/easy wins. That's not the case some times. A good HSC team, or any other comparable team, can beat any other team. Just depends on the Saturday.

As you yourself say the preseason hype is deserved: it's deserved because they were good enough not to get killed by the Almighty Linfield team of 2013.