FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

Hasa

I think every team needs to bring it on Saturday. Any team in the odac can win if the better team does not show up and play on any given Saturday.

Continued good luck to your Quakers, at least until Nov. 8th. Hope you can make it to HSC this year.

tfa,  thanks.  I agree with your "any given Saturday" comment.  I've certainly seen the Quakers win when they weren't favored and, conversely, lose when they were.  I see a focus with this team this season, however, and think they'll be motivated every time they take the field.  Quakers are off September 27, so I'll be watching other games more closely this Saturday.  Good luck to your Tigers as well ... with the caveat of November 8. 

[tigerfanalso]

yes, and I remember the Tigers losing to SU last year for our Homecoming game after being up 19 to 0 in the 1st quarter. You just can't take an odac game for granted because the opposing team is good enough to beat you if you let down for any reason. I don't know if that means the conference is good or bad, but that is reality.

[jknezek]

Time for my annual run-down of the ODAC-USASC Pre-season (Early Season?) Challenge. I am pleased to announce the ODAC went 8-1 this year. I am unhappy to announce W&L's opening loss to Averett is the -1. The ODAC teams went:

1-1 vs Averett (RMC - W&L)
2-0 vs Ferrum (E&H, Shenandoah)
1-0 vs CNU (HSC)
1-0 vs Maryville (E&H)
2-0 vs Greensboro (Guilford, B'water)
1-0 vs Methodist (Guilford)

To put it in perspective, M'ville, Methodist, and CNU are expected to compete for the USASC title. They went 0-3 versus HSC, Guilford and E&H. Not so much was expected for Greensboro, Ferrum and Averett, and they lost to Guilford, B'water, E&H, RMC, and Shenandoah while knocking off W&L. So the expected top of the ODAC, by and large, took down the expected top of the USASC and the rest of the ODAC mostly took down the bottom of the USASC (again, bleh to my Generals).

The only ODAC team that went USASC free was Catholic, who is laboring their way against a true series of cupcakes. The USASC teams that escaped the ODAC grinder are LaGrange, Huntingdon, and N.C. Wesleyan. All three already hold conference losses to teams the ODAC teams beat.

The year compares favorably with last year, when the ODAC went 9-4 against the USASC in silly season and 1-0 in the playoffs. In addition the ODAC went 8-5 in 2012 if you include a game against Huntingdon even though they weren't in the USASC at the time. In 2011 the ODAC went 11-4, including games against Huntingdon and Shenandoah in the USASC. Finally, in 2010, the ODAC was 10-4, including games against Shenandoah.

So this year is more dominant than the last four, but overall the ODAC holds a 47-18 record over the last five years against the USASC (including 2 losses to Huntingdon when they weren't in the USASC and counting all of Shenandoah's games for the conference they were in at the time of the game).

I wish the ODAC had a 72% winning percentage in the playoffs over the same span...

[tigerfanalso]

Jk

Good report. Will be fun to see how Narch/Scot13 respond, or if they even bother.

[wally_wabash]

Time for my annual run-down of the ODAC-USASC Pre-season (Early Season?) Challenge. I am pleased to announce the ODAC went 8-1 this year.

Win all those games!  Need those OOWP points!   

[jknezek]

Jk

Good report. Will be fun to see how Narch/Scot13 respond, or if they even bother.

There isn't a whole lot for them to say. It is what it is. Despite the numbers, I think the USASC has gotten better in the last few years. Huntingdon, CNU, M'ville, and Methodist are legit teams. They aren't going to go anywhere on the national scene, but they are a long way from being in the weakest bracket of D3 conference contenders. LaGrange and NC Wesleyan aren't bad. Ferrum, Averett, and Greensboro are probably not so good, but again, they are probably better than the worst teams in the weaker conferences.

All of this was reflected in Kickoffs conference rankings, but my gut went that way even last year. I think some of the USASC's problem is that it comes up so wanting in games against the ODAC. It also might be part of the ODAC's perceived strength as well.

So despite the record this year, I think the USASC is becoming more competitive. I just think the ODAC is also getting better on the whole. Neither conference is going to be a D3 power any time soon, but I think the ODAC is at the top of the middle grouping while the USASC has probably climbed to the bottom of the middle grouping.

[jknezek]

Time for my annual run-down of the ODAC-USASC Pre-season (Early Season?) Challenge. I am pleased to announce the ODAC went 8-1 this year.

Win all those games!  Need those OOWP points!   

With Wabash playing 9 conference games it just won't matter much. Don't let Witt or an improving DePauw take it away from your guys.

[narch]

Jk

Good report. Will be fun to see how Narch/Scot13 respond, or if they even bother.

the odac had a better head-to-head record vs. the usasac this year by a long-shot...it will be interesting to see how each of the teams finishes, though - measuring relative strength is tough this early and could be tough down the road- if ferrum, averett and greensboro (who went a combined 1-5 vs. the odac) each finishes with 3 or fewer wins (certainly a possibility) and guilford, bc, rmc and ehc finish with 6 or more wins (also a possibility), those games won't tell us much about the relative strength of the conferences...you would expect good teams to beat bad teams, in or out of conference - heck, even m'ville, cnu and mu could finish with 4 to 6 wins, and losses vs. hsc and gcq could look "expected" if those teams each finish 8-2, 9-1

clearly the odac has won the vast majority of the games, but it may be in large part because the games feature upper tier odac teams vs. lower tier usasac teams...won't know until the season plays out

[HSCTiger fan]

...but it may be in large part because the games feature upper tier odac teams vs. lower tier usasac teams....

I know you are talking specifically about this season. History says you will be mistaken.

In 2013 the co-conference champions - Maryville and Methodist both lost to ODAC 7th place Emory and Henry

In 2012 EH who finished 6th in the ODAC beat 4th place Methodist, and beat Ferrum and Maryville who tied for first.

2011 USACC conference runner-up Ferrum was beaten by EH who finished 5th place in the ODAC

2010 3rd place Ferrum lost to 6th place EH

2009 the USACC champion, NCW lost to ODAC 4th place EH and they also played ODAC champion HSC and lost 55 to 23.

There are multiple examples of top tier USACC teams losing to bottom tier ODAC teams. The fact is the USACC teams have very few wins against ODAC teams that end up with winning records. There have only been 4 wins by a USACC teams over a ODAC team with a winning record since 09.

7-3 Ferrum beat 7-3 Bridgewater in 2011
8-2 CNU beat 9-3 HSC and 8-2 Methodist over 6-4 Guilford in 2013

In 2009 5-5 Ferrum beat 7-3 Bridgewater. This marks the ONLY time since 2009 an USACC team without a winning record has beaten an ODAC team that has a winning record.

Further, USACC conference champions have lost to an ODAC team 09, 10. 11, and 13.

JK great conversation starter for a week where many teams are on a bye.

[wally_wabash]

Time for my annual run-down of the ODAC-USASC Pre-season (Early Season?) Challenge. I am pleased to announce the ODAC went 8-1 this year.

Win all those games!  Need those OOWP points!   

With Wabash playing 9 conference games it just won't matter much. Don't let Witt or an improving DePauw take it away from your guys.

We can't get into the .550 stratosphere, but down in the mushy middle of the SOS table where Wabash lives, a few thousandths of a point can change your ranking by 15-20 spots.  The difference is purely cosmetic for sure, but after last year I'm looking for every last little advantage- meaningful or not- that I can get. 

[hasanova]

In the spirit of full disclosure, Averett (1-9) upset Guilford (6-4) early in the 2013 season.  I don't want to take anything away from Averett because both teams played in the same conditions, but the weather played a huge factor in the outcome of this game.  It was a pouring rain game from start to finish under the lights.  It affected turnovers, the kicking game and the passing game.  Despite giving up a couple of scores by giving Averett a very short field, the Quakes still had a chance to win.  I think a score got called back on a penalty on 3rd down and then on the ensuing 4th down with a potential game ending FG attempt, the rain helped create a bad snap.  It was one of those days.

[HSCTiger fan]

In the spirit of full disclosure, Averett (1-9) upset Guilford (6-4) early in the 2013 season.  I don't want to take anything away from Averett because both teams played in the same conditions, but the weather played a huge factor in the outcome of this game.  It was a pouring rain game from start to finish under the lights.  It affected turnovers, the kicking game and the passing game.  Despite giving up a couple of scores by giving Averett a very short field, the Quakes still had a chance to win.  I think a score got called back on a penalty on 3rd down and then on the ensuing 4th down with a potential game ending FG attempt, the rain helped create a bad snap.  It was one of those days.

Sorry I missed that one. 

[hasanova]

In the spirit of full disclosure, Averett (1-9) upset Guilford (6-4) early in the 2013 season.  I don't want to take anything away from Averett because both teams played in the same conditions, but the weather played a huge factor in the outcome of this game.  It was a pouring rain game from start to finish under the lights.  It affected turnovers, the kicking game and the passing game.  Despite giving up a couple of scores by giving Averett a very short field, the Quakes still had a chance to win.  I think a score got called back on a penalty on 3rd down and then on the ensuing 4th down with a potential game ending FG attempt, the rain helped create a bad snap.  It was one of those days.

Sorry I missed that one.

No problem ... I just wanted to be fair if we were doing a full ODAC/USASAC head-to-head.  Thanks for putting that together.  +1

[narch]

I know you are talking specifically about this season. History says you will be mistaken.

when top-tier (top 4) odac schools have faced top-tier (top 4) usasac schools, the results are as follows:

2013 regular season
odac top 4; 0-2 vs. usasac top 4

2012 regular season
odac top 4; 1-0 vs usasac top 4

2011 regular season
odac top 4; 3-1 vs. usasac top 4

recent history suggests that when top-tier teams from these conferences face each other, the results are pretty even...4-3 odac over the last 3 seasons...we'll see if any of the usasac/odac match-ups this year end up being top-tier vs. top-tier...i suspect they will and the odac lead will increase, but history has nothing to do with it, because recent history says the top of these conferences match up pretty well against each other...

history clearly shows that a good many of the odac wins in the last few years vs. the usasac have been against averett and greensboro, teams that are a combined 8-36 in the usasac in the last 3+ seasons...so those teams didn't win many games in the usasac, either - a number of the odac wins vs. these teams were by teams that finished in the top half of the odac - there is little question in my mind that the recent versions of the odac have been much stronger at the bottom than the usasac

i can't explain why ehc has so much success vs. the usasac (specifically mu), though

[jknezek]

I know you are talking specifically about this season. History says you will be mistaken.

when top-tier (top 4) odac schools have faced top-tier (top 4) usasac schools, the results are as follows:

2013 regular season
odac top 4; 0-2 vs. usasac top 4

2012 regular season
odac top 4; 1-0 vs usasac top 4

2011 regular season
odac top 4; 3-1 vs. usasac top 4

recent history suggests that when top-tier teams from these conferences face each other, the results are pretty even...4-3 odac over the last 3 seasons...we'll see if any of the usasac/odac match-ups this year end up being top-tier vs. top-tier...i suspect they will and the odac lead will increase, but history has nothing to do with it, because recent history says the top of these conferences match up pretty well against each other...

history clearly shows that a good many of the odac wins in the last few years vs. the usasac have been against averett and greensboro, teams that are a combined 8-36 in the usasac in the last 3+ seasons...so those teams didn't win many games in the usasac, either - a number of the odac wins vs. these teams were by teams that finished in the top half of the odac - there is little question in my mind that the recent versions of the odac have been much stronger at the bottom than the usasac

i can't explain why ehc has so much success vs. the usasac (specifically mu), though

Um... Narch. You polluted your statistics by not including the playoff win last year. I get it didn't help your argument, but it can't be ignored because you don't like it. That actually was top vs top. So it's 5-3 right now, and the ODAC is probably going to pick up at least one more this year. So 6-3 is reasonable? Over 4 seasons the top of the ODAC is going to have a 66% winning percentage. Small sample size, one or two wins makes a difference, but the numbers are pretty clear...