FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HSCTiger fan]

Head to head over who?  The question is who has a better shot at getting a pool C bid. 8-2 HSC or 9-1 GC? 

[Pat Coleman]

Head to head over who?  The question is who has a better shot at getting a pool C bid. 8-2 HSC or 9-1 GC?

In your hypothetical, Guilford beats Hampden-Sydney and that's definitely the head-to-head I'm talking about.

[hasanova]

I talked to Guilford HC Chris Rusiewicz a few weeks ago and he was philosophical about it.  He's told his team to keep playing and see what happens.  As he said about W&L, "If they go on 10-0, more power to them ... they've earned it."  I personally think Guilford deserves a bid if they go 9-1, especially if W&L goes 10-0.  Even if we don't, the school record for wins is 8 ... so that is a worthy goal also.

[HSCTiger fan]

My hypothetical also asked if HSC beats GC. I think it's going to tough for either team to get in.  I know the loser of this weekend's game has no shot.

[jknezek]

Regional Rankings on Wednesday will give you a peak into odds. I highly doubt any ODAC team except W&L will be ranked, but those committees do funny things. Since only the very last super secret rankings count, any time they spend on doing it this week is pretty much irrelevant, so it can be phoned in quite easily just using records which would more likely give Guilford a shot.

Personally I think a 9-1, 0-1 Guilford stands a better chance of being ranked than an 8-2 0-2 H-SC, but that's just a guess. For W&L's sake, I hope the Generals win out and one of those teams makes the Regional Rankings.

Still football to be played. W&L played very well. Now they need to keep the focus on Catholic.

[HSCTiger fan]

Regional Rankings on Wednesday will give you a peak into odds. I highly doubt any ODAC team except W&L will be ranked, but those committees do funny things. Since only the very last super secret rankings count, any time they spend on doing it this week is pretty much irrelevant, so it can be phoned in quite easily just using records which would more likely give Guilford a shot.

Personally I think a 9-1, 0-1 Guilford stands a better chance of being ranked than an 8-2 0-2 H-SC, but that's just a guess. For W&L's sake, I hope the Generals win out and one of those teams makes the Regional Rankings.

Still football to be played. W&L played very well. Now they need to keep the focus on Catholic.

I'm not putting down your guess but if that's true aren't you making the argument to NOT schedule quality OOC games?  Last year HSC was one of three teams regionally ranked in the south region at 7-2. Their losses at that point last year were to 8-1 Wabash who was regionally ranked 5th in the North and 7-2 Bridgewater who was not ranked. I have not looked closely at the records of other teams in the south but if 7-2 was good enough last year to get 3 teams ranked I've got to believe it would be good enough this year to have HSC ranked. I think that the winner of the HSC / GC game will be regionally ranked. Whether that's enough to get a Pool C bid is a different story.

[hscathletics]

Head to head over who?  The question is who has a better shot at getting a pool C bid. 8-2 HSC or 9-1 GC?

In your hypothetical, Guilford beats Hampden-Sydney and that's definitely the head-to-head I'm talking about.

An 8-2 hypothetical for H-SC would automatically indicate H-SC beats Guilford since H-SC already has 2 losses...

[jknezek]

I'm not putting down your guess but if that's true aren't you making the argument to NOT schedule quality OOC games?  Last year HSC was one of three teams regionally ranked in the south region at 7-2. Their losses at that point last year were to 8-1 Wabash who was regionally ranked 5th in the North and 7-2 Bridgewater who was not ranked. I have not looked closely at the records of other teams in the south but if 7-2 was good enough last year to get 3 teams ranked I've got to believe it would be good enough this year to have HSC ranked. I think that the winner of the HSC / GC game will be regionally ranked. Whether that's enough to get a Pool C bid is a different story.

Some years it seems this way. The problem I have with a two loss H-SC is you also have two loss Chicago, with a win over Wash U, and two loss Hendrix with a win over Chicago. Plus you have two loss TLU with losses to HSU and UMHB. The two SAA schools have SOS numbers higher than H-SC as of last week. TLU doesn't, but their 2 losses are to teams that will be pretty high in the Regional Rankings. So I can easily see H-SC being an unattractive 8-2 compared to the others, depending on how the rankings go. So if they go with a 2 loss team this week, I don't think H-SC is a shoe in. If instead they simply go by winning percentage, Guilford and Moravian look like easy selections at this stage.

To be honest I expect them to have Guilford until the two teams play, if there are 2 ODAC schools. Go with the simple measure of winning percentage knowing you will have a h2h to sort it out later. Since they don't really use these rankings for anything, it's no harm, no foul, and easily justified.

[Pat Coleman]

Head to head over who?  The question is who has a better shot at getting a pool C bid. 8-2 HSC or 9-1 GC?

In your hypothetical, Guilford beats Hampden-Sydney and that's definitely the head-to-head I'm talking about.

An 8-2 hypothetical for H-SC would automatically indicate H-SC beats Guilford since H-SC already has 2 losses...

Except Guilford already has one loss too, so I suppose this is a useless hypothetical.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Head to head over who?  The question is who has a better shot at getting a pool C bid. 8-2 HSC or 9-1 GC?

In your hypothetical, Guilford beats Hampden-Sydney and that's definitely the head-to-head I'm talking about.

An 8-2 hypothetical for H-SC would automatically indicate H-SC beats Guilford since H-SC already has 2 losses...

Except Guilford already has one loss too, so I suppose this is a useless hypothetical.

Pat, I think he was unclear, but positing two separate hypotheticals.  Which would more likely get ODAC a Pool C: HSC>GC to go 8-2, or GC>HSC to go 9-1?  I'd say clearly GC>HSC, but still unlikely.

[Andy Jamison - Walla Walla Wildcat]

Has the ODAC gotten two playoff spots recently?

[jknezek]

Has the ODAC gotten two playoff spots recently?

2010 I think. W&L won the AQ and H-SC went 9-1 losing only to the Generals. H-SC had a quality win over Salisbury that year and lost at home in a tightly contested round 1 to Montclair St.

[tigerFanAlso2]

If GC beats HSC and finishes 9-1, I'll pull for them to get a pool C (they will not) but if they do it is certainly an advertisement
to schedule really weak OOC opponents.

It appears W&L played its best game last week, congrats. I don't know how to address the GC vs. CUA game. Did either defense dress for the game ? Did they decide to play 7 on 7 ? How in the he## can two teams score that many points. Must have been fun to watch.

HSC played its best game of the year, I thought. Few mistakes, offense was effective, defense was outstanding.

And yes,RMC is pulling the same trick they do every year, get better towards the end of the season and try to make its season by beating HSC.

[jknezek]

If GC beats HSC and finishes 9-1, I'll pull for them to get a pool C (they will not) but if they do it is certainly an advertisement
to schedule really weak OOC opponents.

It appears W&L played its best game last week, congrats. I don't know how to address the GC vs. CUA game. Did either defense dress for the game ? Did they decide to play 7 on 7 ? How in the he## can two teams score that many points. Must have been fun to watch.

HSC played its best game of the year, I thought. Few mistakes, offense was effective, defense was outstanding.

And yes,RMC is pulling the same trick they do every year, get better towards the end of the season and try to make its season by beating HSC.

Thanks but I don't think this is true. W&L's best game was at H-SC. E&H was not the same caliber of opponent and W&L just put a foot on their neck early and didn't let the pressure off. Defensively E&H was pretty hapless against the option.

The committees, both regional and national, change make up every year. Some years there seems to be a focus on quality opponents, some years it is more winning percentage. You just don't know until the dust settles.

But for all of that, as it stands right now, I don't think it is obvious H-SC is going to be the prettiest 2 loss team in the South Region per the criteria. As it stands now in SOS, Hendrix is at 20, Chicago is at 32, TLU is at 36 and H-SC is at 52. That leaves how it changes with what is left. Assuming all these teams win out.

Hendrix plays Wash U and Sewanee. Combined they are 6-10, so their SOS should drop a bit
Chicago plays Carnegie Mellon and Wash U. Combined they are 10-6, so their SOS might rise a bit
TLU plays Austin and Southwestern. Combined they are 5-10 so their SOS should drop a bit

H-SC plays Guilford and RMC. Combined they are 9-7, so their SOS might be about the same.

Then you have to factor in Results versus RROs. H-SC can be no better than 0-2 (W&L and Wabash. Guilford won't be ranked if they lose to H-SC).

Hendrix could be 0-1 or 1-1 depending on if Chicago gets ranked.
Chicago could be 0-1 or 0-2 depending if Hendrix gets ranked.
TLU will be 0-2 (HSU and UMHB).

There are other teams that could come in to play, but as you can see it is no slam dunk H-SC would be the top 8-2 Pool C candidate from the South. If they aren't the top 8-2 candidate, it's pretty much certain they wouldn't see the board.

[odacsuperfan]

If GC beats HSC and finishes 9-1, I'll pull for them to get a pool C (they will not) but if they do it is certainly an advertisement
to schedule really weak OOC opponents.

It appears W&L played its best game last week, congrats. I don't know how to address the GC vs. CUA game. Did either defense dress for the game ? Did they decide to play 7 on 7 ? How in the he## can two teams score that many points. Must have been fun to watch.

HSC played its best game of the year, I thought. Few mistakes, offense was effective, defense was outstanding.

And yes,RMC is pulling the same trick they do every year, get better towards the end of the season and try to make its season by beating HSC.

From an outsider it always seems to me that GC always tries to run up scores and pad stats when possible. Especially on weaker teams and out of conference weak schedule.  This was a game that GC couldn't stop CUA so the stat line got padded because of poor defense on both sides. GC has the stats but it might take a miracle to get a ring. Very frustrating for GC. Marty Favret & Co. have owned GC for years but not sure about this year. HSCTiger fan can elaborate on HSC dominance over GC !