FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

I was not able to attend and/or watch the HSC game so I will refrain from making too many comments. For the time being I'm assuming they had a bad outing, period and that averett is a much improved team. Saturday's match up will answer most questions. After week one it appears the odac will be a three team race between W&L, GC and RMC. If HSC decides to join that party it will certainly make the season more interesting for the Tiger fans. I'm thinking that will happen. 

[jknezek]

Jk

I was not able to attend and/or watch the HSC game so I will refrain from making too many comments. For the time being I'm assuming they had a bad outing, period and that averett is a much improved team. Saturday's match up will answer most questions. After week one it appears the odac will be a three team race between W&L, GC and RMC. If HSC decides to join that party it will certainly make the season more interesting for the Tiger fans. I'm thinking that will happen.

I'm just not willing to concede this after one week of the silly season. Especially given the disparity of opponents and our lack of knowledge about how good those opponents really are. That's why I broke out my analysis the way I did. I don't think E&H is going to be an easy out. Not sure how they lost focus in the 4th quarter as badly as they did, but they were cruising the way they should have before it happened. Also, no real read on Shenandoah from playing Gallaudette, and the Eagles were the only ODAC team to defeat what might be a credible opponent.

Plenty of time for teams to improve. General garbage cliche about most improvement happening between weeks 1 and 2. So I'm not really willing to say anyone, except maybe Catholic, is looking completely off the pace. God forbid injuries start mucking it up even more. Hard on H-SC to have lost 2 senior leaders already. Been there in 2014.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I'm not sure about that Jk; SU & CAU will not compete for the odac, BC has not in many years so I have no reason to think they will in 2016 just because they beat Gettysburg, HSC may be down a little this year but we'll no more this coming Saturday on that front, RMC seems to be better as they have won three straight, GC and W&L are just better than the rest of the odac right now, granted that could change. As of now I'm really thinking it is a two horse race and I throw RMC a bone to include them to make it a three horse race. I think Saturday results of the HSC vs. CNU and RMC vs. AU will tell us a lot more about what to expect this season.  E&H has shown me nothing to indicate they are ready to compete, they have talent to pull off a few upsets, but seem to be missing the discipline required to successfully compete for the championship. I do agree with you in that it too early to really know much about how the conference will play out but after week one results I see W&L, GC and RMC as the top three contenders. Week two results could change my thinking.

[jknezek]

I'm not sure about that Jk; SU & CAU will not compete for the odac, BC has not in many years so I have no reason to think they will in 2016 just because they beat Gettysburg, HSC may be down a little this year but we'll no more this coming Saturday on that front, RMC seems to be better as they have won three straight, GC and W&L are just better than the rest of the odac right now, granted that could change. As of now I'm really thinking it is a two horse race and I throw RMC a bone to include them to make it a three horse race. I think Saturday results of the HSC vs. CNU and RMC vs. AU will tell us a lot more about what to expect this season.  E&H has shown me nothing to indicate they are ready to compete, they have talent to pull off a few upsets, but seem to be missing the discipline required to successfully compete for the championship. I do agree with you in that it too early to really know much about how the conference will play out but after week one results I see W&L, GC and RMC as the top three contenders. Week two results could change my thinking.

I agree with all of this. But I also remember what happens in the ODAC when there are a couple of good teams and an upset or two in the second tier. You end up with 2008. 5 teams with a shot to finish at the top of the table and 2 teams that stunk up the joint.

[CMR]

Here's a video clip from TV8 Richmond and what Arruza thinks about the Averett game:

http://wric.com/2016/09/07/randolph-macon-makes-day-field-debut-saturday/

[HansenRatings]

Here's where my model projects the conference race right now compared to where it was before Week 1 (jk, I think I know how you feel about this sort of analytics, but maybe there's other people on here who enjoy this stuff!)

Team	Conf. W-L	Prev.	Pool A Prob.	Prev.
Guilford	5.730-1.270	5.310-1.690	46.59%	35.63%
Randolph-Macon	5.050-1.950	4.345-2.665	22.67%	14.95%
Washington & Lee	4.890-2.110	5.180-1.820	23.92%	34.18%
Hampden-Sydney	3.270-3.730	3.910-3.090	3.01%	9.40%
Bridgewater	2.705-4.295	2.525-4.475	1.88%	1.74%
Emory & Henry	2.455-4.545	2.830-4.170	0.97%	2.70%
Shenandoah	2.000-5.000	2.060-4.940	0.48%	0.87%
Catholic	1.900-5.100	1.830-5.170	0.48%	0.53%

I would have to agree with tigerFan, this appears to be pretty clearly a 3-horse race right now. But at this point in 2008, Catholic was rated worse than they are right now, and then made a run to a Pool A bid. So yes, crazy things can happen.

[hasanova]

Here's where my model projects the conference race right now compared to where it was before Week 1 (jk, I think I know how you feel about this sort of analytics, but maybe there's other people on here who enjoy this stuff!)

Team	Conf. W-L	Prev.	Pool A Prob.	Prev.
Guilford	5.730-1.270	5.310-1.690	46.59%	35.63%
Randolph-Macon	5.050-1.950	4.345-2.665	22.67%	14.95%
Washington & Lee	4.890-2.110	5.180-1.820	23.92%	34.18%
Hampden-Sydney	3.270-3.730	3.910-3.090	3.01%	9.40%
Bridgewater	2.705-4.295	2.525-4.475	1.88%	1.74%
Emory & Henry	2.455-4.545	2.830-4.170	0.97%	2.70%
Shenandoah	2.000-5.000	2.060-4.940	0.48%	0.87%
Catholic	1.900-5.100	1.830-5.170	0.48%	0.53%

I would have to agree with tigerFan, this appears to be pretty clearly a 3-horse race right now. But at this point in 2008, Catholic was rated worse than they are right now, and then made a run to a Pool A bid. So yes, crazy things can happen.

As a numbers guy and a Guilford fan, I like it, but I have always thought the coaches picked GC too low at #3,  I believe the players and coaches are on a mission for 10-0 considering 9-1 didn't get it done last season.

[jknezek]

Here's where my model projects the conference race right now compared to where it was before Week 1 (jk, I think I know how you feel about this sort of analytics, but maybe there's other people on here who enjoy this stuff!)

Team	Conf. W-L	Prev.	Pool A Prob.	Prev.
Guilford	5.730-1.270	5.310-1.690	46.59%	35.63%
Randolph-Macon	5.050-1.950	4.345-2.665	22.67%	14.95%
Washington & Lee	4.890-2.110	5.180-1.820	23.92%	34.18%
Hampden-Sydney	3.270-3.730	3.910-3.090	3.01%	9.40%
Bridgewater	2.705-4.295	2.525-4.475	1.88%	1.74%
Emory & Henry	2.455-4.545	2.830-4.170	0.97%	2.70%
Shenandoah	2.000-5.000	2.060-4.940	0.48%	0.87%
Catholic	1.900-5.100	1.830-5.170	0.48%	0.53%

I would have to agree with tigerFan, this appears to be pretty clearly a 3-horse race right now. But at this point in 2008, Catholic was rated worse than they are right now, and then made a run to a Pool A bid. So yes, crazy things can happen.

I've got no problems with your model, analysis or posts. I find it fairly interesting. My original point was without returning starter info, I didn't think it was particularly robust.

As for the percentages, Guilford has 4 of the easiest opening games in DIII, though Averett may prove to be a significant surprise. I expect the Quakers will continue to climb your rankings. W&L has two of the hardest, if not the two hardest, OOC games in the conference with JHU and CMS. With no overlap between W&L and any other ODAC team's OOC, I just don't see much relevance in the non-conf outcomes to how the conference games will play out.

I will say that I think, even with their easy schedule, we have a better grasp on how Guilford reloaded after all the key performers they graduated.

[HansenRatings]

It's worth noting that a team can win a game and go down in my rankings (or lose and go up, though not by much). Their week-to-week fluctuation is due to how well they perform against the spread. Guilford is favored by 23.4 this week. If they only win by 21, their rating will go down. W&L's rating remains essentially unchanged from the preseason, but their probabilities have gone down because RMC did so much better than expected in Week 1.

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

I agree ooc games will not affect W&L once odac play starts. I fully expect W&L to compete, if not repeat, as odac champs.
I think the W&L vs. GC game goes along way to determine the champ. No clue how that will play out. Otherwise I think W&L's schedule is favorable with both HSC and RMC traveling to Lexington. Should be an exciting season once again.

[SaintsFAN]

Here's where my model projects the conference race right now compared to where it was before Week 1 (jk, I think I know how you feel about this sort of analytics, but maybe there's other people on here who enjoy this stuff!)

Team	Conf. W-L	Prev.	Pool A Prob.	Prev.
Guilford	5.730-1.270	5.310-1.690	46.59%	35.63%
Randolph-Macon	5.050-1.950	4.345-2.665	22.67%	14.95%
Washington & Lee	4.890-2.110	5.180-1.820	23.92%	34.18%
Hampden-Sydney	3.270-3.730	3.910-3.090	3.01%	9.40%
Bridgewater	2.705-4.295	2.525-4.475	1.88%	1.74%
Emory & Henry	2.455-4.545	2.830-4.170	0.97%	2.70%
Shenandoah	2.000-5.000	2.060-4.940	0.48%	0.87%
Catholic	1.900-5.100	1.830-5.170	0.48%	0.53%

I would have to agree with tigerFan, this appears to be pretty clearly a 3-horse race right now. But at this point in 2008, Catholic was rated worse than they are right now, and then made a run to a Pool A bid. So yes, crazy things can happen.

I've got no problems with your model, analysis or posts. I find it fairly interesting. My original point was without returning starter info, I didn't think it was particularly robust.

As for the percentages, Guilford has 4 of the easiest opening games in DIII, though Averett may prove to be a significant surprise. I expect the Quakers will continue to climb your rankings. W&L has two of the hardest, if not the two hardest, OOC games in the conference with JHU and CMS. With no overlap between W&L and any other ODAC team's OOC, I just don't see much relevance in the non-conf outcomes to how the conference games will play out.

I will say that I think, even with their easy schedule, we have a better grasp on how Guilford reloaded after all the key performers they graduated.

You feel like CMS is better than TMC? 

[jknezek]

As for the percentages, Guilford has 4 of the easiest opening games in DIII, though Averett may prove to be a significant surprise. I expect the Quakers will continue to climb your rankings. W&L has two of the hardest, if not the two hardest, OOC games in the conference with JHU and CMS. With no overlap between W&L and any other ODAC team's OOC, I just don't see much relevance in the non-conf outcomes to how the conference games will play out.

I will say that I think, even with their easy schedule, we have a better grasp on how Guilford reloaded after all the key performers they graduated.

You feel like CMS is better than TMC?

That one slipped my mind. Probably not if TMC is a significant percentage of what I saw last year in the playoffs.

[hscathletics]

As expected, Edgar Moore not on the two deep for H-SC this week. Not sure how long he'll be out, but it's Alec Cobb's team to QB for now. Showed some positive signs last week in his first action in a real game, hopefully he can build on that and learn quickly.

page 5, http://hscathletics.com/sports/fball/2016-17/notes/09.10.16_CNU.pdf

[CMR]

As expected, Edgar Moore not on the two deep for H-SC this week. Not sure how long he'll be out, but it's Alec Cobb's team to QB for now. Showed some positive signs last week in his first action in a real game, hopefully he can build on that and learn quickly.

page 5, http://hscathletics.com/sports/fball/2016-17/notes/09.10.16_CNU.pdf

Where is Kyree Koonce?  I was afraid he'd be around for 3 more years.

[jknezek]

As expected, Edgar Moore not on the two deep for H-SC this week. Not sure how long he'll be out, but it's Alec Cobb's team to QB for now. Showed some positive signs last week in his first action in a real game, hopefully he can build on that and learn quickly.

page 5, http://hscathletics.com/sports/fball/2016-17/notes/09.10.16_CNU.pdf

Where is Kyree Koonce?  I was afraid he'd be around for 3 more years.

He ran into some off-season trouble. He hasn't been on any H-SC roster this fall. Not sure if statement 1 is related to statement 2.