FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[hasanova]

"However, Southern Virginia has made overtures to the Old Dominion Athletic Conference, which would be a better fit geographically, and would fill a need the ODAC has for an eighth football program. And there has long been a delicate balance in the CAC between public and private institutions. If Southern Virginia leaves, which could happen soon after this new league's official announcement, York would be the only private institution left in the CAC."

http://www.d3sports.com/notables/2017/06/new-conference-shuffle-coming

I read it also.  Pragmatism may end up besting a more desirable fit.

[hasanova]

87 days till kickoff!

I know ... making plans for my first visit to Alabama!

9/2 huh? If we aren't out of town on Labor Day I may try and meet you down there. Huntingdon has a nice small stadium. Not sure where they tailgate any more since I believe the school sold the land the previous spot sat on. However, the two active Huntingdon fans over in the USAS boards are real nice guys. I've met them both, shared their tailgates and their favorite game watching spots. I'm sure they can fill us in on the details. Montgomery itself has some good and bad spots. It's not my favorite city, but Huntingdon sites in a nice little historic area. Not far from a few FCS and FBS schools if you want to see if you can make it a day/night double header.

I was going to broach this subject with you this summer, jknezek, but thanks for beating me to the punch.  A fellow Guilford alumnus (and football letterman) and I are discussing the trip.  As appealing as a doubleheader would be, we're probably talking about a trip down after lunch on Friday and a return trip to NC after the game on Saturday ... leaves us plenty of time for brunch or a tailgate before the game.  Always good to meet fellow DIII fans and forum posters.  I've heard similar comments about Montgomery, but many come from Birmingham residents.  lol   I take the good with the bad ... I'm sure it will be a memorable trip.  We'll touch base later, but sounds like a plan.  Thanks.

[jknezek]

For a state capital, Montgomery is not very nice. Kind of reminds me of growing up in NJ where Trenton is also mostly a dump. You think these guys would take care of their own backyard, but since so few of them live there I guess they don't care.

[Hawks88]

87 days till kickoff!

I know ... making plans for my first visit to Alabama!

9/2 huh? If we aren't out of town on Labor Day I may try and meet you down there. Huntingdon has a nice small stadium. Not sure where they tailgate any more since I believe the school sold the land the previous spot sat on. However, the two active Huntingdon fans over in the USAS boards are real nice guys. I've met them both, shared their tailgates and their favorite game watching spots. I'm sure they can fill us in on the details. Montgomery itself has some good and bad spots. It's not my favorite city, but Huntingdon sites in a nice little historic area. Not far from a few FCS and FBS schools if you want to see if you can make it a day/night double header.

You can still tailgate on the lawn in front of the Cloverdale building. It was just the end along Boultier St.(where we used to be able to drive up onto the lawn) that was sold. They have since paved the area between the Cloverdale building and the gym and there is an entry at the back on Navarro Ave. that you can come through and drive up to the front.
I think you can see what I am talking about on this link.
https://goo.gl/maps/6WXzRfmQYco

[hasanova]

87 days till kickoff!

I know ... making plans for my first visit to Alabama!

9/2 huh? If we aren't out of town on Labor Day I may try and meet you down there. Huntingdon has a nice small stadium. Not sure where they tailgate any more since I believe the school sold the land the previous spot sat on. However, the two active Huntingdon fans over in the USAS boards are real nice guys. I've met them both, shared their tailgates and their favorite game watching spots. I'm sure they can fill us in on the details. Montgomery itself has some good and bad spots. It's not my favorite city, but Huntingdon sites in a nice little historic area. Not far from a few FCS and FBS schools if you want to see if you can make it a day/night double header.

You can still tailgate on the lawn in front of the Cloverdale building. It was just the end along Boultier St.(where we used to be able to drive up onto the lawn) that was sold. They have since paved the area between the Cloverdale building and the gym and there is an entry at the back on Navarro Ave. that you can come through and drive up to the front.
I think you can see what I am talking about on this link.
https://goo.gl/maps/6WXzRfmQYco

Thanks, Hawks88.  Very helpful.  +1

[hasanova]

For a state capital, Montgomery is not very nice. Kind of reminds me of growing up in NJ where Trenton is also mostly a dump. You think these guys would take care of their own backyard, but since so few of them live there I guess they don't care.

I've heard similar stories about Montgomery.  My personal state capital experiences are Richmond (I was born in Virginia and educated there until age 15), Raleigh (most of my life has now been spent in NC), Columbia (graduate school at USC) and Atlanta (frequent visits) ... all four are New South progressive, rather well-kept cities.

[Ralph Turner]

Tailgating at Huntingdon is fun.  Nice people.

[HansenRatings]

Decided I'm going to spam every conference board with my preseason (non-returning-starter-adjusted) projections.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
RMC	0.8265	7.2-1.8	4.5-1.5
W&L	0.7474	5.9-4.1	3.6-2.4
E&H	0.6501	4.3-3.7	3.1-2.9
BC	0.6352	3.8-5.2	2.8-3.2
GC	0.5803	3.4-4.6	2.7-3.3
HSC	0.5180	3.1-5.9	2.2-3.8
SU	0.4938	3.4-5.6	2.0-4.0

It's comical how closely spread out the conference win totals are. As an expression of the parity in this league, consider this: the only conference with a better "worst team" in the country is the WIAC, and no other conference in the country has the last place team projected with 2 or more wins. RMC is easily "the favorite," but I would be shocked if that works out to any more than 1 in 3 odds.

[tigerFanAlso2]

I see no surprises

[HSCTiger fan]

Decided I'm going to spam every conference board with my preseason (non-returning-starter-adjusted) projections.

Team	Rating	Overall	Conference
RMC	0.8265	7.2-1.8	4.5-1.5
W&L	0.7474	5.9-4.1	3.6-2.4
E&H	0.6501	4.3-3.7	3.1-2.9
BC	0.6352	3.8-5.2	2.8-3.2
GC	0.5803	3.4-4.6	2.7-3.3
HSC	0.5180	3.1-5.9	2.2-3.8
SU	0.4938	3.4-5.6	2.0-4.0

It's comical how closely spread out the conference win totals are. As an expression of the parity in this league, consider this: the only conference with a better "worst team" in the country is the WIAC, and no other conference in the country has the last place team projected with 2 or more wins. RMC is easily "the favorite," but I would be shocked if that works out to any more than 1 in 3 odds.

I'm a little confused. What do you mean by non retuning starter adjusted?  No team in the league comes close to RMC in attrition. RMC loses 24 of their 2 deep. No league team comes close to these numbers. By comparison in their respective 2 deeps - SU loses 10, WL loses 11, EH loses 8, GC loses 14, BC loses 11 and HSC loses 9.

[wally_wabash]

I think "non-returning-starter-adjusted" means that he hasn't adjusted his team ratings for returning starters. 

[HansenRatings]

I think "non-returning-starter-adjusted" means that he hasn't adjusted his team ratings for returning starters.

Yes, precisely. USee did a much more in-depth team-by-team analysis of the CCIW with their returning starters, so I was able to plug those numbers in for that conference. The adjustments can cause some pretty drastic swings (+/- up to 1.5 wins depending on how many starters are back), so the rankings I posted here are very likely to change.

[HSCTiger fan]

Don't think I've posted my model's preseason conference predictions (without adjusting for returning starters; Kickoff can't come soon enough) for the ODAC yet:

Team	W-L	Conf W-L	Pool A Probability
Guilford	7.3-2.7	4.7-2.3	27.54%
Wash & Lee	6.1-3.9	4.4-2.6	20.44%
Hampden-Sydney	6.6-3.4	4.3-2.7	17.04%
Randolph-Macon	6.4-3.6	4.1-2.9	15.94%
Emory & Henry	5.4-3.6	3.9-3.1	12.37%
Bridgewater	3.3-5.7	2.9-4.1	4.23%
Shenandoah	4.1-5.9	2.2-4.8	1.68%
Catholic	3.3-6.7	1.6-5.4	0.76%

Source: https://loghan.shinyapps.io/Season_Projections/

With less than one game separating the projected first-place team from the projected fifth place team, I suppose we should expect another fun (frustrating?) season in the ODAC.

Last year's projections were horrible.

[jknezek]

To be fair, the ODAC doesn't really lend itself to this kind of analysis. Heavy on past performance works best for conferences with dominant teams. As HSC dominance has faded, and Bridgewater's is over a decade in the past, the ODAC is very difficult to predict. Especially with long time doormat Catholic leaving and Guilford going from predictable doormat to unpredictable respectability.

[HSCTiger fan]

To be fair, the ODAC doesn't really lend itself to this kind of analysis. Heavy on past performance works best for conferences with dominant teams. As HSC dominance has faded, and Bridgewater's is over a decade in the past, the ODAC is very difficult to predict. Especially with long time doormat Catholic leaving and Guilford going from predictable doormat to unpredictable respectability.

JK I agree. But if Hensen is saying Mt  Union, Linfield, and UMHB are going to win their respective conference titles - well duh.