FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HansenRatings]

Math is math my friend. The steadier the inputs, the steadier the outputs.

I get math. If your "formula" picks Mt. Union to win so be it. But if the same formula is projecting GC winning ODAC in 16 and they finish with 1 conference win, then maybe the formula needs adjusting.

I find it interesting when a "formula system" is so pathetically wrong and yet it's presented as somehow more reliable than an educated guess.

He did finish second in our regular season Pick'em last year and all the "regular" ODAC guys pretty much finished at the bottom. As he and I discussed last year, I'm not a fan of non-returning starter adjusted predictions, but W&L returned pretty much an entire offense last year from an undefeated team and still lost 2 conference games. On the other hand, Guilford graduated pretty much 2 whole units from a one-loss team and did about what many of us expected. Returning starters isn't an end-all, be all. Predicting the ODAC right now a difficult task.

Guilford returned something like 16 or 17 starters from their 9-1 team in 15. I think they had 8 or 9 back on Defense and 7 or 8 on offense.

And your educated guess would have pegged them with 1 win in the conference based on that information? It's really easy to say a prediction "sucked" if you never make them yourself.

My model didn't exactly predict them to win the conference either, it said they had about a 25% chance of winning it. That means the model actually thought there was a 3 in 4 chance they wouldn't win the conference. If I told you a baseball player had a 25% chance of getting a hit in their next at bat, would I be wrong if they got out? That's how good models work--they give you a range of probabilities for outcomes.

You could pick ANY team last year and have had a 12.5% chance of being right.
What odds/percentage did you give for finishing 1-6 in conference?

They had precisely a 4.5% chance of finishing with their final record of 4-6:



If you can show me your preseason predictions from last August that said they were more likely to finish at the bottom of the conference than near the top, while also singling out RMC as a legitimate contender, I will gladly concede that your intuition greatly exceeds my ability with a spreadsheet.

[HansenRatings]

1 for 3 = Cooperstown, 1 in 5 = Salón de la Fama. 1 in 4 = a happy median.

"That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."  -- Bull Durham

"I believe teams who go 9-1 in 2015 with several close wins will regress to the mean in 2016." - Logan Hansen

[Scots13]

1 for 3 = Cooperstown, 1 in 5 = Salón de la Fama. 1 in 4 = a happy median.

"That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."  -- Bull Durham

In my humble opinion, Top 3 most quotable sports movie of all time.
"The rose goes in the front, big guy."

[Scots13]

1 for 3 = Cooperstown, 1 in 5 = Salón de la Fama. 1 in 4 = a happy median.

"That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."  -- Bull Durham

"I believe teams who go 9-1 in 2015 with several close wins will regress to the mean in 2016." - Logan Hansen

I must have missed that part...was that between "small of a woman's back" and "hanging curve ball"?

[HSCTiger fan]

I guess there will be an ODAC meeting in the next week or two. Is it too early for our own predictions?

Here goes:

WL
HSC
EH
RMC
GC
BC
SU
CUA

I really like this HSC team. If they can win at WL they will IMO win the ODAC.

I picked GC 5th last year

[HSCTiger fan]

9 out of 10

Yeesh you H-SC guys are greedy. Best conference team of the last 15 years and still wishing everyone else was weaker! 

WL and HSC have won 9 of last 10 ODAC championships. Is there a team this year ready to step up to the challenge?  I see it being either WL or HSC again in 16.

This could be a year to watch out for RMC. Other than JHU and Guilford they were right there all last year and were pretty young. Lot of momentum could carry over from the 3-0 finish and I could easily see them starting the year 5-0 before traveling to E&H. To me, RMC looks a lot like W&L heading into last season. They do have to go to Lexington and to H-SC, but The Game hasn't been much of an RMC problem the last five years.

I do think it's going to be like most years in the ODAC. E&H could be good enough to surprise. They have the athletes but, at least from what I saw last year, not the mentality. Guilford loses a lot, but with the way Coach R recruited I wouldn't be surprised if they had the pieces to fill back in. H-SC will reload, W&L brings back a ton. That's most of the conference I think with a reasonable shot to be the champs.

I don't expect much from Catholic and I don't have a feel for Bridgewater. They seem perennially expected to be good, and then turn out mediocre. Shenandoah has some good pieces, but I didn't see much out of them last year that has me thinking they've turned a corner. Other than Catholic they only stayed within one score of H-SC.

I'm not thinking we will see 7-0 again for the conf champion. More like 6-1 as usual. Too many good teams. Probably no great one.

JK liked RMC all year.

[jknezek]

9 out of 10

Yeesh you H-SC guys are greedy. Best conference team of the last 15 years and still wishing everyone else was weaker! 

WL and HSC have won 9 of last 10 ODAC championships. Is there a team this year ready to step up to the challenge?  I see it being either WL or HSC again in 16.

This could be a year to watch out for RMC. Other than JHU and Guilford they were right there all last year and were pretty young. Lot of momentum could carry over from the 3-0 finish and I could easily see them starting the year 5-0 before traveling to E&H. To me, RMC looks a lot like W&L heading into last season. They do have to go to Lexington and to H-SC, but The Game hasn't been much of an RMC problem the last five years.

I do think it's going to be like most years in the ODAC. E&H could be good enough to surprise. They have the athletes but, at least from what I saw last year, not the mentality. Guilford loses a lot, but with the way Coach R recruited I wouldn't be surprised if they had the pieces to fill back in. H-SC will reload, W&L brings back a ton. That's most of the conference I think with a reasonable shot to be the champs.

I don't expect much from Catholic and I don't have a feel for Bridgewater. They seem perennially expected to be good, and then turn out mediocre. Shenandoah has some good pieces, but I didn't see much out of them last year that has me thinking they've turned a corner. Other than Catholic they only stayed within one score of H-SC.

I'm not thinking we will see 7-0 again for the conf champion. More like 6-1 as usual. Too many good teams. Probably no great one.

JK liked RMC all year.

I didn't pick them to win:

6-1 W&L -- W&L loses by surprise at Guilford
5-2 HSC -- loses at W&L and home in The Game
5-2 RMC -- loses at W&L and at E&H
4-3 E&H -- loses at W&L, at HSC, home for Guilford
3-4 Guilford -- loses at H-SC, at RMC, at Shenandoah, home for BC
2-5 BC -- loses home for H-SC, at RMC, home for E&H, at Guilford, and home for W&L
2-5 SU -- loses at RMC, at E&H, at Bridgewater, home for HSC, at W&L
1-6 Catholic -- beats BC at home in their last ever ODAC conference game

[HansenRatings]

Team	Hansen	HSCTiger	Actual	Hansen Δ	HSCTiger Δ
RMC	3	4	1	2	3
W&L	2	1	2.5	0.5	1.5
E&H	5	3	2.5	2.5	0.5
SU	7	7	4.5	2.5	2.5
BC	6	6	4.5	1.5	1.5
HSC	4	2	6	2	4
GC	1	5	7	6	2
CUA	8	8	8	0	0
SUM	x	x	x	17	15

You probably had a better prediction than I did last year. You're pretty good at this. Ever consider trying it for all 27 conferences in the country? I think I could use some competition in the d3fb prediction market.

[jknezek]

Team	Hansen	HSCTiger	Actual	Hansen Δ	HSCTiger Δ
RMC	3	4	1	2	3
W&L	2	1	2.5	0.5	1.5
E&H	5	3	2.5	2.5	0.5
SU	7	7	4.5	2.5	2.5
BC	6	6	4.5	1.5	1.5
HSC	4	2	6	2	4
GC	1	5	7	6	2
CUA	8	8	8	0	0
SUM	x	x	x	17	15

You probably had a better prediction than I did last year. You're pretty good at this. Ever consider trying it for all 27 conferences in the country? I think I could use some competition in the d3fb prediction market.

Might want to tidy this up. W&L was 2 because they had the h2H against E&H and Shenandoah was 4 because they had the h2h against Bridgewater.

[HansenRatings]

Might want to tidy this up. W&L was 2 because they had the h2H against E&H and Shenandoah was 4 because they had the h2h against Bridgewater.

H2H tie-breakers are actually a pet peeve of mine. I am definitely of the mind that they rarely identify the better team when considering a full season's-worth of games. If you're tied with a team you beat H2H, that means you lost to a team they beat. There's actually been some really boring posts on FootballStudyHall trying to find mathematical proofs to verify my argument, but they're pretty dense if you're looking for a light read. But anyways:

Team	Hansen	HSCTiger	Actual	Hansen Δ	HSCTiger Δ
RMC	3	4	1	2	3
W&L	2	1	2	0	1
E&H	5	3	3	2	0
SU	7	7	4	3	3
BC	6	6	5	1	1
HSC	4	2	6	2	4
GC	1	5	7	6	2
CUA	8	8	8	0	0
SUM	x	x	x	16	14

[HSCTiger fan]

Team	Hansen	HSCTiger	Actual	Hansen Δ	HSCTiger Δ
RMC	3	4	1	2	3
W&L	2	1	2.5	0.5	1.5
E&H	5	3	2.5	2.5	0.5
SU	7	7	4.5	2.5	2.5
BC	6	6	4.5	1.5	1.5
HSC	4	2	6	2	4
GC	1	5	7	6	2
CUA	8	8	8	0	0
SUM	x	x	x	17	15

You probably had a better prediction than I did last year. You're pretty good at this. Ever consider trying it for all 27 conferences in the country? I think I could use some competition in the d3fb prediction market.

I'll it a try for charity.  Loser pays the other's favorite charity. $50.00. This would be fun and interesting as I know little of teams and conferences outside of ODAC. You in?

[Bombers798891]

I've been following D-III football for nearly 90% of my life. It's something I enjoy. It's also something that feels, at times, a little lonely. There aren't exactly a lot of us out there, and there are even fewer places for them to congregate and share their thoughts with others who share that interest.

So while someone might see Hansen's work a "horrible" and "pathetic" projection system, you know what I see?

I see someone who has a passion for D-III football and wants to share and spread that passion on these pages. I think that is beyond awesome. I love that someone out there took the time to develop a system for D-III football and wants to talk about it with other people who love D-III football. I don't care about the so-called flaws in his system, or if his predictions are right or not. I care about the fact that he cares.

Keep it up, Hansen

[HansenRatings]

I'll it a try for charity.  Loser pays the other's favorite charity. $50.00. This would be fun and interesting as I know little of teams and conferences outside of ODAC. You in?

Sounds good to me. I'm partial to either Habitat for Humanity of Relay for Life.

[jknezek]

H2H tie-breakers are actually a pet peeve of mine. I am definitely of the mind that they rarely identify the better team when considering a full season's-worth of games. If you're tied with a team you beat H2H, that means you lost to a team they beat. There's actually been some really boring posts on FootballStudyHall trying to find mathematical proofs to verify my argument, but they're pretty dense if you're looking for a light read. But anyways:

I don't know, I'll take a head to head because it is how you determine the better team on the field. A second level, like who beat who or who beat who by more, does not tell me anywhere near as much about who was the better team than a win on the field. Now there is always the argument about a 3pt win at home being essentially a tie, but that's a flaw that is hard to avoid. In this case, W&L beat E&H by 26 in Lexington (at W&L), and Shenandoah beat Bridgewater by 24 at Bridgewater. On the day they met on the field, it is pretty clear which team was better and diving into the ancillary data to try and disprove it is silly.

[HSCTiger fan]

I'll it a try for charity.  Loser pays the other's favorite charity. $50.00. This would be fun and interesting as I know little of teams and conferences outside of ODAC. You in?

Sounds good to me. I'm partial to either Habitat for Humanity of Relay for Life.

This will be fun. I'll start working on my picks. My charity of choice is the Parknson's Association of the Carolinas.