FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[HansenRatings]

H2H tie-breakers are actually a pet peeve of mine. I am definitely of the mind that they rarely identify the better team when considering a full season's-worth of games. If you're tied with a team you beat H2H, that means you lost to a team they beat. There's actually been some really boring posts on FootballStudyHall trying to find mathematical proofs to verify my argument, but they're pretty dense if you're looking for a light read. But anyways:

I don't know, I'll take a head to head because it is how you determine the better team on the field. A second level, like who beat who or who beat who by more, does not tell me anywhere near as much about who was the better team than a win on the field. Now there is always the argument about a 3pt win at home being essentially a tie, but that's a flaw that is hard to avoid. In this case, W&L beat E&H by 26 in Lexington (at W&L), and Shenandoah beat Bridgewater by 24 at Bridgewater. On the day they met on the field, it is pretty clear which team was better and diving into the ancillary data to try and disprove it is silly.

Yeah... I'm very well aware of that, and I've had this debate with friends a few times. I'm get how silly it seems, but I guess that just a hill I'm willing to die on.

[HSCTiger fan]

I've been following D-III football for nearly 90% of my life. It's something I enjoy. It's also something that feels, at times, a little lonely. There aren't exactly a lot of us out there, and there are even fewer places for them to congregate and share their thoughts with others who share that interest.

So while someone might see Hansen's work a "horrible" and "pathetic" projection system, you know what I see?

I see someone who has a passion for D-III football and wants to share and spread that passion on these pages. I think that is beyond awesome. I love that someone out there took the time to develop a system for D-III football and wants to talk about it with other people who love D-III football. I don't care about the so-called flaws in his system, or if his predictions are right or not. I care about the fact that he cares.

Keep it up, Hansen

I was specifically speaking about Hansen's 2016 ODAC projections.  He put it out to a public forum. It's a discussion board. I offered an opinion about his post. Just as you offer yours. Unlike some people, I never dip to name calling and never take anything personal. I hope and doubt Hansen is not in a fetal position, sucking his thumb because another passionate D3 fan disagreed with his post.

He seems to be fine as evidence of our friendly charitable wager.

[Pat Coleman]

Math is math my friend. The steadier the inputs, the steadier the outputs.

I get math. If your "formula" picks Mt. Union to win so be it. But if the same formula is projecting GC winning ODAC in 16 and they finish with 1 conference win, then maybe the formula needs adjusting.

I find it interesting when a "formula system" is so pathetically wrong and yet it's presented as somehow more reliable than an educated guess.

I find it less interesting when you feel the need to be a jerk. Why is this necessary? First of all, we all know the ODAC is pretty evenly stacked and volatile from year to year and Logan even mentioned that the conference is even in his post.

With less than one game separating the projected first-place team from the projected fifth place team, I suppose we should expect another fun (frustrating?) season in the ODAC.

If you think it's worthless, that's fine, but perhaps you can leave the "horrible" and "pathetic" discourse for use in other areas of your life.

Your funny Pat. You've put this board out for discussions and you're so offended by "horrible" and "pathetic" that you resort to name calling and assume you know anything about my life. I find that hilarious.  There's been a lot worse said on these boards.

I mean ... I don't know what you say in the rest of your life and I never pretended to. My point was that maybe you could keep the hyperbolic language out of this part of your life, that's all.

[Scots13]

Team	Hansen	HSCTiger	Actual	Hansen Δ	HSCTiger Δ
RMC	3	4	1	2	3
W&L	2	1	2.5	0.5	1.5
E&H	5	3	2.5	2.5	0.5
SU	7	7	4.5	2.5	2.5
BC	6	6	4.5	1.5	1.5
HSC	4	2	6	2	4
GC	1	5	7	6	2
CUA	8	8	8	0	0
SUM	x	x	x	17	15

You probably had a better prediction than I did last year. You're pretty good at this. Ever consider trying it for all 27 conferences in the country? I think I could use some competition in the d3fb prediction market.

I'll it a try for charity.  Loser pays the other's favorite charity. $50.00. This would be fun and interesting as I know little of teams and conferences outside of ODAC. You in?

Here's an idea for someone better at websites than I am-- a Pick'ems site with FBS, FCS, D2 and D3 schedules. Pay a $20 entry fee at the start of the season with all proceeds going to Parent Project Muscular Dystrophy. Winner gets a shirt or something. Nice way to tie in Coach to Cure MD so many teams participate in.

[HSCTiger fan]

HSC names next AD.

http://hscathletics.com/general/2016-17/releases/20170620igemsn

[hasanova]

Injuries ended GC's chances last year.
I project RMC, W&L and E&H will fight it out for the ODAC champ this year. Don't see any others ready to make a run.

Thank you for clarifying that.

[hasanova]

1 for 3 = Cooperstown, 1 in 5 = Salón de la Fama. 1 in 4 = a happy median.

"That means if you get just one extra flare a week - just one - a gorp... you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes... you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week... and you're in Yankee Stadium."  -- Bull Durham

"I believe teams who go 9-1 in 2015 with several close wins will regress to the mean in 2016." - Logan Hansen

I must have missed that part...was that between "small of a woman's back" and "hanging curve ball"?

That was in the pool hall/bar when he was explaining baseball as a metaphor for life to Meat.  Of course, then he smashed a mirror with a pool ball!

I lived in Durham from 1976-1987 and again from 1992-1997.  I was in the Durham Athletic Park on opening night in 1980 when the Bulls were revitalized in Durham after a 10 year hiatus.  They won their first 13 games, had a fiery exciting Manager and several guys who went on to play for the Braves.  Durham's love affair with the Bulls was officially on.  Your could buy a 10-ticket general admission book for $15.  Especially on weekends, it was the place to be in Durham.  When I watch that movie, I recognize the park, the streets, the buildings, a reference to Northgate Mall, the Bull and the railroad bridge Kevin Costner drove under in his Mustang convertible.  I know extras in the stands who waited patiently for hours to be in a few seconds of film.  One of my favorite movies for sure.

[HSCTiger fan]

Injuries ended GC's chances last year.
I project RMC, W&L and E&H will fight it out for the ODAC champ this year. Don't see any others ready to make a run.

Thank you for clarifying that.

The same could be said for HSC.  Lost their RB the day before practice started, an all Conference captain DE in preseason and their Senior captain QB in first half of first game.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Hello Ferrum: http://www.d3sports.com/notables/2017/06/odac-expands-to-add-ferrum

[jknezek]

Well there you go. Problem solved. I can't believe they added a 15 member, but it makes sense. SVa must be crying in their cups right now.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Well there you go. Problem solved. I can't believe they added a 15 member, but it makes sense. SVa must be crying in their cups right now.

I don't think SVU is crying. Everything I have gathered has made me think they knew their situation and didn't think the ODAC was a sure thing. I heard less than 50/50 chance was their thinking - from second-hand sources. So, yeah... not sure SVU is all that surprised here. I think they knew it was a long shot.

[jknezek]

Well there you go. Problem solved. I can't believe they added a 15 member, but it makes sense. SVa must be crying in their cups right now.

I don't think SVU is crying. Everything I have gathered has made me think they knew their situation and didn't think the ODAC was a sure thing. I heard less than 50/50 chance was their thinking - from second-hand sources. So, yeah... not sure SVU is all that surprised here. I think they knew it was a long shot.

Oh I agree they were a longshot. But they have to be unhappy over the missed possibility, whether it was likely for them or not.

[wally_wabash]

This seems totally...reasonable.   Quite refreshing actually. 

[jknezek]

This seems totally...reasonable.   Quite refreshing actually.

Yes. The exception is that women's soccer now has 14 teams and many men's and women's sports will have 13. The difference between 12 and 13 isn't massive, of course, but it is one more and it seems solely to benefit football. The conference has already struggled giving up home and homes in some sports in order to fit it all in and still have a decent OOC schedule. It's a big conference and just got a bit bigger.

[y_jack_lok]

Well there you go. Problem solved. I can't believe they added a 15 member, but it makes sense. SVa must be crying in their cups right now.

Well, if the USA South could deal with 16 members -- and add three to make it 19 (now 18 with the loss of Ferrum)  then the ODAC should be able to figure out how to handle 15 members. It certainly solves the football problem. Also, I suspect the USA South was aware of this possibility for awhile. Sounds like a win-win for everybody.