FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ I wouldn't place too much emphasis on RMC's loss to Catholic. #1 QB Estes was out for that game. They did make mistakes that cost them the game that might have been overcome with Estes playing. Offense has performed much better with him playing the past three games. Not sure if that would change your analysis, but thought the info might be useful.

[jknezek]

^^^ I wouldn't place too much emphasis on RMC's loss to Catholic. #1 QB Estes was out for that game. They did make mistakes that cost them the game that might have been overcome with Estes playing. Offense has performed much better with him playing the past three games. Not sure if that would change your analysis, but thought the info might be useful.

Definitely useful information. RMC is still short a loss to a contender. That's the real problem.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ I wouldn't place too much emphasis on RMC's loss to Catholic. #1 QB Estes was out for that game. They did make mistakes that cost them the game that might have been overcome with Estes playing. Offense has performed much better with him playing the past three games. Not sure if that would change your analysis, but thought the info might be useful.

Definitely useful information. RMC is still short a loss to a contender. That's the real problem.

Yep. Jackets couldn't stop SU passing game. With only six conference games this season one loss really hurts and probably puts you in a tie breaker with another team for the championship, two losses and you're probably out of it unless some crazy stuff happens. At this point it could come down to the winner of the HSC/SU game.

[jknezek]

^^^ I wouldn't place too much emphasis on RMC's loss to Catholic. #1 QB Estes was out for that game. They did make mistakes that cost them the game that might have been overcome with Estes playing. Offense has performed much better with him playing the past three games. Not sure if that would change your analysis, but thought the info might be useful.

Definitely useful information. RMC is still short a loss to a contender. That's the real problem.

Yep. Jackets couldn't stop SU passing game. With only six conference games this season one loss really hurts and probably puts you in a tie breaker with another team for the championship, two losses and you're probably out of it unless some crazy stuff happens. At this point it could come down to the winner of the HSC/SU game.

SU, HSC and W&L all control their own destiny. W&L because E&H has lost twice. So if W&L wins out, they will have 1 conference loss but will have wins over SU and HSC, controlling that tiebreaker, while RMC would have to have 2 losses (SU and W&L) eliminating them. For RMC, SU has to lose to HSC and RMC has to win The Game. All three teams have to win out otherwise. That would make a three way 1 loss tie at the top with no h2h tiebreaker. At that point it would move down the ODAC tiebreaker list, which I'm not looking into because it's too early. W&L cannot be one of 3 teams tied with 1 loss and help RMC because the only way W&L can have 1 loss is to beat RMC. And if you start moving into 2 loss tiebreakers I'm just not going to go there.

But yeah, with all 3 games on the road, and W&L essentially a series of walking wounded, it is likely to be the HSC/SU winner.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ I really admire you for being able to understand and spell out those scenarios. That stuff makes my head spin.

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

I believe that you are in the know when it comes to injuries, etc., however, with the numbers W&L continues to put up the injuries do not appear to be slowing them down.

I cannot make the game vs. W&L this weekend, but I assume HSC will be ready to compete after the a** kicking they received last year in Lexington.
Hopefully that memory will lite a fire and be used as ammunition to motivate them to return the favor.

If HSC beats W&L, SU and RMC, they win, correct ?

I really enjoyed reading your analytical update of the crazy thing we call ODAC football.   

[jknezek]

Jk

I believe that you are in the know when it comes to injuries, etc., however, with the numbers W&L continues to put up the injuries do not appear to be slowing them down.

It hurt against E&H, I can tell you that. The defense was beat up and just couldn't get a stop. On offense it certainly didn't hurt this weekend. Lose a senior QB, slot back, running back and wide receiver? Split the QB position between a FY and Soph, give a FY running back who has been outstanding the ball, and rush for over 500 yards. Guilford just couldn't get a stop.

I cannot make the game vs. W&L this weekend, but I assume HSC will be ready to compete after the a** kicking they received last year in Lexington.
Hopefully that memory will lite a fire and be used as ammunition to motivate them to return the favor.

Yeah. Not expecting anything like that. W&L's passing defense is giving up the most yards in the league, and it's not even close. Not boding well when you have to beat HSC and Shenandoah this season.  On the upside, they do have the second most picks and third most sacks, so they can cause problems. HSC rushing defense is third best in the league, but they are second worst at getting fumbles. This could get seriously ugly for the scoreboard operator.

If HSC beats W&L, SU and RMC, they win, correct ?

W&L will also have to beat Bridgewater. W&L needs to win out to control their destiny. HSC and SU control their destiny if they win out, but have some possible wiggle room with a loss. RMC needs to win out and get help.

I really enjoyed reading your analytical update of the crazy thing we call ODAC football.

Thanks. Glad it's good for something. Just keep in mind I'm sitting dead last in the pick'em...

[Ralph Turner]

Hmm... SVU to the ODAC as an associate in Football!

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2017/10/southern-virginia-join-odac

Much less travel for the NJAC teams. The NJAC may not be too disheartened to lose that road trip.

[HSCTiger fan]

Hmm... SVU to the ODAC as an associate in Football!

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2017/10/southern-virginia-join-odac

Much less travel for the NJAC teams. The NJAC may not be too disheartened to lose that road trip.

This is not a huge surprise. The NJAC schools only had 1 game of long travel every other year.  SVA had to travel a long distance every other week. They have to be elated to join the ODAC.

[jknezek]

Hmm... SVU to the ODAC as an associate in Football!

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2017/10/southern-virginia-join-odac

Much less travel for the NJAC teams. The NJAC may not be too disheartened to lose that road trip.

Arrgh.. Why the he!! did they invite Ferrum for all sports then? Now we have 9. So once again we have an odd bye situation. There has to be more to this.

Down to 2 OOC games. Not going to be happy if we lose Sewanee, especially now that the Tigers look to be trending up a bit. Probably the nail in the coffin for bringing Centre back to the schedule. Out of conference rivalries just keep taking hit after hit.

I'm guessing Apprentice just got very sad.

[tigerFanAlso2]

NNA might be sad but GC probably happy not to play Davidson & Jacksonville, although I don't think Davidson is worth a damn.
I really don't get the SVA thing, I prefer 3 OOC games now that will go away in 2019. I'm keeping my fingers crossed that CNU will continue to play HSC, otherwise, not sure we can find a quality OOC game to replace them.

My predictions for this week are as follows;

RMC @ NNA -- RMC by a lot
W&L @ HSC --- HSC 35 W&L 28
BC @ E&H ----- E&H 42 BC 28
SU @ GC  ----- SU 35  GC 21

Going to be fun to watch this thing play out over the next 4 weeks. Right now I'm thinking SU has the inside track, but as we all no anything can happen on any given Saturday.

Closing note, glad not to play NNA going forward. That was just no fun to watch and ran me back to the tailgate before 2nd quarter started.   

[jknezek]

Apprentice has had some good years. This doesn't seem to be one of them. But yeah. It's going to be increasingly hard for them to get games and that's sad for those kids, but in their down years, it's not a lot of fun to play them.

I definitely feel Guilford, but I'm thinking they took the money this year to help pay for the Huntingdon trip. Just a guess, but all of that seems to pair off nicely when added up to the trouble of finding 4 OOC games.

I do recognize even getting 3 OOC games was getting harder. So to some degree I completely understand this. But I really didn't like having a bye week 10 one year and don't want to do that again.

And I really don't understand adding Ferrum if this was an option. I said it many times. The ODAC didn't need another all sports member. We are the second largest conference in the country and more than a few sports were already overstuffed. If this was an option from the get-go, it made more sense for the conference as a whole. What the ODAC did was much more of a benefit solely for football and a burden to many other sports.

[HSCTiger fan]

I disagree that it's a burden to have Ferrum join conference. I just don't see how having more guaranteed and convenient games is a burden to ODAC members.

[jknezek]

I disagree that it's a burden to have Ferrum join conference. I just don't see how having more guaranteed and convenient games is a burden to ODAC members.

Most sports don't have football's problem. It's not that hard to find games in basketball, baseball, and soccer. There are so many teams. As a minor complaint, over stuffing these sports just makes the access ratio that much worse. More significantly in many sports it negates a double round robin and in some sports we have ridiculous unbalanced schedules. For example ODAC men's soccer went to an unbalanced schedule where all teams didn't play just so teams could get some OOC games to try and boost SOS since the conference isn't all that highly regarded outside of the top 2 or 3 teams.

Football has unique issues, and these moves address those issues, but it is to the detriment of many of the other sports.

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

You are correct regarding how the Ferrum acquisition affects the other sports, but football is the most important sport, not because it is my favorite, but because it draws alumni back to campus every year, keeping those people involved and interested certainly does not hurt the endowment/capital campaigns/annual giving,etc. Attendance at other sporting activities, excepting basketball maybe, is non factor at best. 

So, your predictions for the weekend are ?