FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[Pat Coleman]

Regional rankings are out:
http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2017/first-regional-ranking

[jknezek]

And in a completely expected move, not an ODAC team to be found. ODACiness strikes again. How unpleasant an opponent will our eventual champion face this year?

[HSCTiger fan]

And in a completely expected move, not an ODAC team to be found. ODACiness strikes again. How unpleasant an opponent will our eventual champion face this year?

You say this every year.  But the NCAA has been more than fair to ODAC champion. Since 2009 ODAC has hosted a first round game twice (09, 13) and had 1 at large bid which was also a home game (10). The away games have been John Hopkins 2016, Thomas More 2015, Wesley 2014, Hobart 2012, Centre 2011, and Thomas More in 2010.   Only Wesley and Hobart advanced past the second round. All the rest lost their next game.  Granted the ODAC record is 1-9 in this time frame. However, one could argue that all but a couple of games were reasonable first round matches that ODAC teams, at least going into the game, could have been expected to compete favorably.

[jknezek]

And in a completely expected move, not an ODAC team to be found. ODACiness strikes again. How unpleasant an opponent will our eventual champion face this year?

You say this every year.  But the NCAA has been more than fair to ODAC champion. Since 2009 ODAC has hosted a first round game twice (09, 13) and had 1 at large bid which was also a home game (10). The away games have been John Hopkins 2016, Thomas More 2015, Wesley 2014, Hobart 2012, Centre 2011, and Thomas More in 2010.   Only Wesley and Hobart advanced past the second round. All the rest lost their next game.  Granted the ODAC record is 1-9 in this time frame. However, one could argue that all but a couple of games were reasonable first round matches that ODAC teams, at least going into the game, could have been expected to compete favorably.

I'm not entirely sure I'd say more than fair, but I think they've rarely been overly harsh. Is that close enough? Losing does and should have its problems. And the ODAC champion is rarely unblemished. That being said, I do think W&L has been hard done by in a couple appearances, not so much in others. 495 miles to Hobart did them no favors. And the year they went undefeated I think they were a bit hard done to go on the road, though the OOC schedule probably earned it. Not harsh in either case, but neither were a break. I think H-SC has gotten two breaks, the two home games. Home games with losses is a nice perk, and one of them was all about the geography. So a bit lucky as well.

But yeah, I don't have a huge issue where I say the ODAC has been badly shafted. That's not true. On the other hand, I do think it's fair to speculate where our 2 or maybe 3 loss champion will go this year.

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield at H-SU (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

Of course this doesn't work if W&L doesn't win the ODAC, as HSC, RMC, and Shenandoah can't drive to Berry, though it would work if Guilford could get the tiebreaker. Not sure how that would happen, but I'm too lazy to figure it out.

In this the ASC and NWC champs are hard done by

[Ralph Turner]

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield Pool A hosting at H-SU Pool C (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

I like this bracket because it keeps this part of the country together. The ASC rarely plays the ODAC. I cannot remember an ASC vs ODAC playoff game. I want the ODAC fans to see what UMHB (and HSU, if they make it that far) are really like.  Witt makes more sense at the "#2" on the other side of the bracket.

In 2010, I found UMHB 59-7 over Christopher Newport from the USA South and then 69-7 over Thomas More in the second round only to lose at Wesley 19-9 in round 3.

In 2008, UMHB beat HSU 38-35 in the first round and then beat Wesley 46-14 and W&J 63-7.

In 2007, UMHB beat Trinity 52-23  in the first round and then NCWC 64-0 in the second round.

The ASC usually pairs off against itself in the first 2 rounds, (e.g. HSU or McMurry or Louisiana College) and then is sent north or west.

[tigerFanAlso2]

Jk

My ODAC predictions (meaningless) for week 10;

E&H over NNA by a lot
GC over RMC 24 to 21
HSC over SU 49 to 42
W&L over BC 35 to 21

Your thoughts ?

[jknezek]

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield Pool A hosting at H-SU Pool C (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

I like this bracket because it keeps this part of the country together. The ASC rarely plays the ODAC. I cannot remember an ASC vs ODAC playoff game. I want the ODAC fans to see what UMHB (and HSU, if they make it  that far) are really like.  Witt makes more sense at the "#2" on the other side of the bracket.

Oh I don't think the ODAC champ would get that far. Witt would be more than a match I think for anyone coming out of the ODAC. Franklin maybe not. But even then, I think Berry would be a tough hill to get over. Still, I think it's a creative grouping that has the benefit of limiting flights and the drawback of once again screwing the ASC and NWC. But I just don't see a way around that without springing for even more flights. You just don't want Linfield, UMHB, and Berry/Huntingdon making deep runs with every round a flight for all of them.

I think the bracket works almost as well if you send the ODAC champ somewhere else and sub in a Franklin vs Witt game. The result of that is still a drive to Berry but a flight to Huntingdon, but almost anything is going to be a flight to Huntingdon. And of course the ODAC champ only works if it's W&L.

But yeah, I'd like to see a bracket that gets the USAC/SAA/ODAC/PAC/CC champ to get sacrificed in Belton in some round just to help with relative value comparisons.

[jknezek]

Jk

My ODAC predictions (meaningless) for week 10;

E&H over NNA by a lot
GC over RMC 24 to 21
HSC over SU 49 to 42
W&L over BC 35 to 21

Your thoughts ?

E&H over NNA by a lot -- yes
GC over RMC 24 to 21 -- More or less yes. I think RMC is going to have a hangover from last week and the game is at GC.
HSC over SU 49 to 42 -- I'm going to flip this. SU over HSC 49-28. SU basically got 2 weeks to get ready and I expect Yoder is smart enough to drop 8 or 9 into coverage.
W&L over BC 35 to 21 -- This seems right to me, though I think W&L's defense may hold them under 20.  That unit has been strong since the debacle at E&H.

[Hawks88]

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield at H-SU (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

Of course this doesn't work if W&L doesn't win the ODAC, as HSC, RMC, and Shenandoah can't drive to Berry, though it would work if Guilford could get the tiebreaker. Not sure how that would happen, but I'm too lazy to figure it out.

In this the ASC and NWC champs are hard done by

Or if things get really goofy and Guilford somehow gets the ODAC AQ and Centre gets in via Pool C. Then you have a group of 4 that can all drive for the first two rounds.

[HSCTiger fan]

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield at H-SU (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

Of course this doesn't work if W&L doesn't win the ODAC, as HSC, RMC, and Shenandoah can't drive to Berry, though it would work if Guilford could get the tiebreaker. Not sure how that would happen, but I'm too lazy to figure it out.

In this the ASC and NWC champs are hard done by

Or if things get really goofy and Guilford somehow gets the ODAC AQ and Centre gets in via Pool C. Then you have a group of 4 that can all drive for the first two rounds.

Guilford as far as I can tell has been eliminated.

HSC, SU, and WL can all lose 2 more games BUT it's not possible for HSC, WL and SU to each lose 2 games.  The best GC can do is tie and they lose the tiebreakers in each scenario.

[jknezek]

I had a fun thought in the car about building an 8 team quadrant with the orphans. Chapman at UMHB (flight), Linfield at H-SU (flight and could be reversed), Huntingdon at Berry (drive), W&L at Witt or Franklin (drive). Then in the second round you pair the first two games (possible flight) and the second two games (drive) and you have only one more flight in the third round and have killed almost all the major orphans with 3-4 flights in 3 rounds.

Of course this doesn't work if W&L doesn't win the ODAC, as HSC, RMC, and Shenandoah can't drive to Berry, though it would work if Guilford could get the tiebreaker. Not sure how that would happen, but I'm too lazy to figure it out.

In this the ASC and NWC champs are hard done by

Or if things get really goofy and Guilford somehow gets the ODAC AQ and Centre gets in via Pool C. Then you have a group of 4 that can all drive for the first two rounds.

Guilford as far as I can tell has been eliminated.

HSC, SU, and WL can all lose 2 more games BUT it's not possible for HSC, WL and SU to each lose 2 games.  The best GC can do is tie and they lose the tiebreakers in each scenario.

I suspected that, but I refuse to look until after this weekend!

[HSCTiger fan]

Jk

My ODAC predictions (meaningless) for week 10;

E&H over NNA by a lot
GC over RMC 24 to 21
HSC over SU 49 to 42
W&L over BC 35 to 21

Your thoughts ?

E&H over NNA by a lot -- yes
GC over RMC 24 to 21 -- More or less yes. I think RMC is going to have a hangover from last week and the game is at GC.
HSC over SU 49 to 42 -- I'm going to flip this. SU over HSC 49-28. SU basically got 2 weeks to get ready and I expect Yoder is smart enough to drop 8 or 9 into coverage.
W&L over BC 35 to 21 -- This seems right to me, though I think W&L's defense may hold them under 20.  That unit has been strong since the debacle at E&H.

I don't see HSC giving up 49 points.  Winner in my mind is first team to 35. 

BC please be good this weekend. WL please be bad.

Go Quakers!

EH have fun running up your stats!

[hasanova]

It's a strange conference race when the Tigers are rooting for the Quakers.  lol

[HSCTiger fan]

It's a strange conference race when the Tigers are rooting for the Quakers.  lol

Not when the Quakers are playing Macon. 

[tigerFanAlso2]

anybody but Macon !!!!