FB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[algernon]

No games between the ODAC teams yet this season, so how do we make sense of team performance except to say that the ODAC has been beating up on some teams from other conferences?

This is offered as food for thought / discussion .... a way of looking at ODAC win quality .... which multiplies each team's Win Percentage by the Win Percentage of it's opponents vs. other teams, including only D3 games:

                              Wins        Losses  Win %    Oppo. Wins   Oppo. Losses    Oppo. Win %     Product
Hampden-Sydney      2           1         0.667              2                   4              0.333                 0.222
Randolph-Macon       2             1         0.667           1                     3               0.250                0.167
Bridgewater             3              0          1.000             0                  5              0.000                 0.000
Catholic                   3               0          1.000             0                 5              0.000                  0.000
Guilford                   3              0         1.000              0                  2               0.000                 0.000
Washington & Lee    1            0          1.000              0                   1              0.000                   0.000
Emory & Henry         1             1           0.500             0                   3               0.000                  0.000

It doesn't seem that our ODAC teams have played very high quality opponents so far this season. 

[fmfdoc]

     I promise I will never...ever...EVER compare scores again!! 

Johns Hopkins 17 H-S 16
H-S 54 Gettysburg 7
Gettysburg 41 Hopkins 10 (at Hopkins)
     

When you get stuff like this figured out and can draw conclusions, then apply them to future games, let me know. I think I could find a job in Las Vegas for you.

     I DO have this crystal ball packed away in storage!! 

GREAT SCOTT, man! Do you realize what you have? Break it out, dust it off, plug in some new Duracells and give me some help this w/e with my pick-ems!...... and uh...er...could you also send me the winning lottery numbers?

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

Smokin' guns ablazin this morning. 

Pat - You NEED to see Josh play. Make it a priority to catch a game. Soon.


Matt - as for the percentages... compare two players -
QB 1:
0-10 passes: 12-16   10-20: 9-12   20-40:  5-10   40+: 2-4   total: 25-40 (61%)
QB 2:
0-10 passes: 6-8   10-20: 10-15    20-40:  2-6   40+: 1-2   total: 19-31 (61%)

QB 1 here is in a GC type O, QB 2 in a BC. Both Comp %'s are approx 61%, but you can see the impact of the number of attempts. Although more completions are made in all but the 10-20 range, the percentages stay similar. Just had to throw this out there since you said you were tired of that arguement. Yes, the GC O throws mainly short passes, but due to the high number of passes thrown total, it can affect a completion percentage.

Bottom line... we all know that when it comes down to it, the GC O gets it done on Saturdays. Now if the D plays the way they are capable, look out!

Are those yardages where the play ends?  If so, again, that's the receiver doing the work.  The receiver may gain 20, 30 yards ... but the pass itself could have been to the sidelines.

Interesting comparison, none-the-less.  Thanks for sharing!

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...] It doesn't seem that our ODAC teams have played very high quality opponents so far this season. 

Nice chart, algernon.  Unfortunately, the quality of our out-of-conference opponents has been down the last couple of years.  We just happen to be beating them this year.

Congrats to the ODAC for going 15-3 thus far.  A win is a win.  Keep it up!

[Trenches]

Are those yardages where the play ends?  If so, again, that's the receiver doing the work.  The receiver may gain 20, 30 yards ... but the pass itself could have been to the sidelines.

Interesting comparison, none-the-less.  Thanks for sharing!

When I orginally wrote it, I meant as where the ball was thrown (as that's generally how passes are broken down for qbs... where they are thrown to).   The numbers were generalizations (educated guesses if you will)... it's not like I broke down the plays of all GC and BC games when the two were starting at quarterback.  haha

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...] I think Vogelbach is a better fit for GC, and Highfill a better fit for BC. [...]

Ehh, I disagree my Eagle friend.  I think Vogelbach would do just fine in our system, and I think Highfill may even *gasp* make Guilford more dangerous.

Think about it.  Let's say all the receivers are covered, and the play breaks down (I mentioned this in an earlier post).  Highfill would be able to gain you 5, 10, 25 yards on those types of plays.  Scary.

[Trenches]

[...] I think Vogelbach is a better fit for GC, and Highfill a better fit for BC. [...]

Ehh, I disagree my Eagle friend.  I think Vogelbach would do just fine in our system, and I think Highfill may even *gasp* make Guilford more dangerous.

Think about it.  Let's say all the receivers are covered, and the play breaks down (I mentioned this in an earlier post).  Highfill would be able to gain you 5, 10, 25 yards on those types of plays.  Scary.

I disagree, but the world will never know.

[Pat Coleman]

Smokin' guns ablazin this morning. 

Pat - You NEED to see Josh play. Make it a priority to catch a game. Soon.

I'll do my best, but there are 240 Division III teams and only about 12 dates during the regular season where I can see games. Do the math.

[Snakehandler]

I'd take Vogelbach.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...] I think Vogelbach is a better fit for GC, and Highfill a better fit for BC. [...]

Ehh, I disagree my Eagle friend.  I think Vogelbach would do just fine in our system, and I think Highfill may even *gasp* make Guilford more dangerous.

Think about it.  Let's say all the receivers are covered, and the play breaks down (I mentioned this in an earlier post).  Highfill would be able to gain you 5, 10, 25 yards on those types of plays.  Scary.

I disagree, but the world will never know.

In Vogelbach's 23 career starts, he has had only two scampers for 17 or more yards (both were for 17 yards).  Highfill, over his 18 career starts, has had 12 runs of 17-plus yards (17, 17, 17, 19, 19, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 33, and 44).

What an additional weapon to have.

[Pat Coleman]

No games between the ODAC teams yet this season, so how do we make sense of team performance except to say that the ODAC has been beating up on some teams from other conferences?

This is offered as food for thought / discussion .... a way of looking at ODAC win quality .... which multiplies each team's Win Percentage by the Win Percentage of it's opponents vs. other teams, including only D3 games:

                              Wins        Losses  Win %    Oppo. Wins   Oppo. Losses    Oppo. Win %     Product
Hampden-Sydney      2           1         0.667              2                   4              0.333                 0.222
Randolph-Macon       2             1         0.667           1                     3               0.250                0.167
Bridgewater             3              0          1.000             0                  5              0.000                 0.000
Catholic                   3               0          1.000             0                 5              0.000                  0.000
Guilford                   3              0         1.000              0                  2               0.000                 0.000
Washington & Lee    1            0          1.000              0                   1              0.000                   0.000
Emory & Henry         1             1           0.500             0                   3               0.000                  0.000

It doesn't seem that our ODAC teams have played very high quality opponents so far this season. 

Just keep in mind that it's a very small sample so far. There have been three weeks to the season and you eliminate one because it's against the ODAC team, there's only a couple games.

I do agree that there have been a lot of games against pretty weak opponents. However, ODAC teams lost some of those games last year.

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

I'd take Vogelbach.

Then you'll love 2008, 2009, and 2010.  Bridgewater will have a Vogelbach-like player in Hagan Driskell at QB (if he wins the job, of course).

[hasanova]

Jeff would rather be 15-0.  Josh can have POTY, AA, and the records.  He certainly deserves it with the numbers he has, and will, put up.

Matt, for gosh sake, Vogelbach would rather be 15-0 as well.

Sorry, my statement clearly should have included a or 8).  Something to let you know that I was being facetious.

I think this discussion has you a bit rattled.  You're usually very careful and guarded with your opinions and insight, but then you throw out there the "Vogelbach is the best D3 QB I've seen" statement, and all heck breaks loose.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, and I - like many - think you're one of the most intelligent and insightful people on these boards.  So don't get frustrated and pull a WLU78 on us.

Thank you, but I assure you I am not the least bit rattled or frustrated.  This whole thing is "much ado about nothing."     

A "for gosh sake" post that was edited would suggest otherwise, but whatever.

And IMO, this discussion is actually a very interesting one.  I'm starting to think you're backing away from your original "Vogelbach = the chosen one" statement.

Did I push the right button to keep this discussion going?

Matt, I edit a lot of posts for purposes of grammar, clarity and, yes, harmony.  In my honest opinion, however, this issue has taken a life much bigger than was intended - at least by me.  All I know, however, is four people smited me while I was at lunch.    Imagine the reaction I would get if I was truly trying to be impolite, argumentative or unreasonably biased.  Peace

[Matt Barnhart (kid)]

[...] All I know, however, is four people smited me while I was at lunch.    Imagine the reaction I would get if I was truly trying to be impolite, argumentative or unreasonably biased.

A quaker wouldn't do that, tough.

[Snakehandler]

When you look up "Unreasonably Biased" in the dictionary you see a picture of (kid)