FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[exmajor]

It has been quiet on here . . . I know the Bell game pulled alot of people to another thread, but we have a championship game this weekend.  Where are all the Trinity guys? In the five or so years I have been reading posts, Trinity usually dominates this board, are you waiting for us to say something?

[frank_ezelle]

Not much action here for an upcoming championship game between two teams that are undefeated in conference play.  I'm not sure if there is much to say--the big question might be the health of Tyson Roy and I know nothing of his status nor would I report anything if I knew it.  I'm sure Trinity is planning on Tyson being at full strength.

My gut feeling is that Millsaps will have a fair amount of new stuff in the mix for this game.  I'm trying to think of any trick plays that Millsaps has run this year and I don't recall any at the moment.  Maybe Coach DuBose doesn't believe in that sort of thing or maybe he has been saving them.  I tend to believe that there are some tricks that have been stored away for this game.

Since the two teams now have 6 common opponents, here's a list of the results in those games which maybe tells us nothing more than both teams tend to play better at home:

Millsaps over Centre 38-12 at home--Trinity won 17-10 on the road
Millsaps over Austin 26-11 on the road--Trinity won 34-7 at home
Millsaps over DePauw 31-7 at home--Trinity won 26-15 at home
Millsaps over Sewanee 35-18 on the road--Trinity won 21-7 at home
Millsaps over Rhodes 14-6 on the road--Trinity won 41-7 at home
Millsaps lost to Huntingdon 34-35 at home--Trinity won 24-13 on the road

Judging by the above you might say that Millsaps did better against Centre and DePauw, Trinity did better against Austin, Rhodes and Huntingdon, and maybe the Sewanee result is a tossup.  That sounds like Trinity has the edge in results while Millsaps has the edge of being the home team.  Maybe HunterT knows what he is talking about.

[frank_ezelle]

exmajor and I were thinking the same thing about the lack of activity here before such an important game.  Is anyone up for predictions?  If you don't want to go out on a limb predicting a winner, then how about this question:

Millsaps SCAC games are averaging 39.6 points per game, 28.8 for Millsaps and 10.8 for their opponent.  Trinity SCAC games are averaging 37 points per game, 27.8 for Trinity and 9.2 for their opponent.  Will the total points at the end of regulation in this weeks game be (a) under 38 or will it be (b) 38 points or more?

My guess is 38 points or more at the end of regulation

(I had the math wrong initially--I think the above is correct)

[exmajor]

I am going with the under, I think defense wins the day here and a shootout is unlikely.  Special teams may also play a huge factor and hopefully Millsaps and Chris Jackson are up to the challenge.  Also, whoever wins the turnover battle should be sitting pretty (I know sounds kinda like a Madden statement), but I have a feeling turnovers will be the most decisive factor of all.

[HunterT]

I agree, it's been scary quiet before a game like this. Kinda like the quiet before the storm. I figured the Depauw guys would relocate to the Monon Bell thread, but I expected the Trinity guys to be talking nonstop. Where is everybody?

To Frank's question, over 38. The offenses of both teams are too good to have a 17-21 game. It will be over. The defenses are good, but the offenses will put up the points. And it won't be more than a one score game at the end.

I agree with exmajor, It's gonna come down to turnovers and special teams. IF the game gets ugly and the ball starts changing hands unexpectedly, whoever ends up doing a better job hanging on will win. (Yes that sounds way way too much like Madden, but sometimes the simplist things are true). Juan Joseph is my leading candidate for Offensive POTY, but if he can't get it done here, then it shifts. This is a big game for Millsaps to prove that their offense is what it has been hyped up to be. And the Black Flag should take that as a challenge. Rhodes held 'Saps to 14 on the road, what can TU do when they are at home?

The special teams are going to be very important this week in Jackson. Trinity is always solid, they will get the job done, but I'm afraid they don't have the explosive ability to make game changing plays on ST. I don't think that will be enough. There has to be a big play on ST if the offense/defense battle goes into stalemate. Millsaps seems to be more hit or miss. The kickers have been shifted around all season, while the block teams have got the job done (1 punt blk, 5 kick blk). Trinity has been good on kicks all season (6-7 long of 38) but nothing too long, while blocking 3 kicks. It's gonna be interesting to see how these compare.

Millsaps will be fired up on ST and will be gunning for a block. It could come down to one player giving more effort than the guy against him on one play. That's why they have the kicking game. (sorry a little bias since it was my area of the game)

[Ron Boerger]

Trinity has allowed one passing TD all season - that was last week after the game was out of reach.  For Millsaps to win, Juan Joseph has to have a better day against the Black Flag than any other QB has this year.   And for that to happen, Millsaps needs a solid rushing attack, b/c Trinity on average allows more yards on the ground than through the air.  It's a battle of the #1 SCAC pass defense against the #1 SCAC pass offense.  Millsaps has allowed only four sacks in conference play and if they can continue to give Joseph that kind of time it could be a long day for the visitors. 

I think the Trinity offense will get its points against Millsaps, even if they are less explosive than in seasons past.  Millsaps will be on the lookout for Riley Curry who has shouldered a lot of the receiving load as of late.  Trinity, on the other hand, had better keep a close tab on Marcus Harris and Ronnie Wheat.  The 7 interceptions they have between them (plus two more each from Michael Sims and Shawn Gillenwat) are the reason that the Majors' pass efficiency defense is second only to Trinity's.  Millsaps allows nearly 200 yards per game passing but a couple of extra INTs each game make up for a lot of that weakness.

If the game's in SA, it's Trinity by a couple of TDs, but on the road it's going to come down to who makes the fewest mistakes.   Millsaps has by far the best turnover margin and perhaps the intangibles due to it being homecoming and with the game being meaningful for the first time in a long while.  I'll take TU in a squeaker, 21-20, but it could very easily go the other way.   Should be fun!

[tTU719803]

I really hope that Trinity can pull it out on the road this weekend, but I am worried.  Trinity hasn't played well in Jackson over the past 12 years, save for one blowout in 1998.  They have lost twice ('96 and '00) and the rest have been very close, even coming down to the last play in '04.  Like Ron said, if it were in San Antonio I could basically guarantee a win.  But in Jackson is a different story.  Hopefully all the close games on the road helped get them ready for what will be a real test.

On a side note, I'm going to have to eat some crow for saying at the beginning of the year that "Millsaps and Sewanee are still awful."  I got Sewanee right, but Millsaps has made a complete turnaround from the mess they were last year.

There's nothing better than two teams with a clean conference record slugging out in the final week for a playoff spot!  It should be a great game!

[HunterT]

Ron and ttu -

If this game was in Trinity, the conversation on this board would be very different, and I would not have voted for a tie. There is something about San Anton, or maybe it's the "Oh my god we're playing Trinity" factor coupled with the travel and road weariness. Not sure which.

This game takes on a different atmosphere in Jackson. Look at West Virginia at Louisville, two good teams playing at the "lower team's" place. Similar here, and I think that it's the right ingredients for a new SCAC Champ.

Maybe.

And I have to eat my words and thoughts as well, I haven't thought much about this Millsaps team all season, especially after the first 3 losses. But they've proven themselves well. Good job to the Majors and coaches on a good season, regardless of this outcome this weekend.

[HunterT]

Just got these stories today, both good write-ups from the Nashville paper about 1. D-III football being played at Sewanee, and 2. a brief story about the upcoming Edmund Orgil Cup battle this Saturday.

1.
http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061107/SPORTS06/611070359/1034

2.
http://tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061107/SPORTS06/611070360/1034

As much as it pains me, the Nashville paper does give the UOS some face time, and these articles are well written. Enjoy.

[DPU3619]

Hey Team,

Had to count to ten before I went nuts on a wally or two.  Gotta tell you, as impressed as I have been with Millsaps and Coach DuBose this year, I still like TU.  Nobody beats Trinity for the SCAC title.  Not last year, or the year before, or ever.  The game is in Jackson, but I still honestly think Coach Mohr will have his guys ready to go. 

It really comes down to this essentially being a playoff game.  Gotta like the Texas Tigers for that reason.

[consultant]

Either we aren't as good as we think, or Millsaps is the best 0-3 team in the country. They seem like if they can work a couple of things out on defense, they have a chance to make some noise when they start conference play.

Back in September, Huntingdon poster Hawks88 may have realized long before anybody else that Millsaps had the potential to turn its season around.  I believe that Saturday's game will be a classic.  Millsaps has played well at home, and they have routinely played well against Trinity at home over the last 12 years (with the exception of 98).

I expect the offenses to produce, and I do think that more than 38 points will be scored in this one.  I agree that the game will turn on special teams play and turnovers.  The weather should be cool and nice.  Millsaps is expecting a large crowd.  I'm getting on a plane tomorrow for a nice weekend in Mississippi.  Go Majors!

My pick:
Millsaps 28
Trinity 24

Juan Joseph and a healthy Tyson Roy confuse the Black Flag and the Millsaps D comes up with a few big stops or turnovers to seal the win!  We shall see.  I'll give a report for sure. 

[consultant]

Well, I just discovered a bit of a wrinkle to the Millsaps/Trinity game.  In a pre-game press release sent to me via e-mail tonight I read where the Majors' Tyson Roy is not expected to play.  I am surprised by that.  Outside of this release, I have not heard any mention that Tyson would not play.  I fully expect him to play a role on Saturday.  As always, we shall see.  But the Majors' running game will be affected if Roy is in fact a no go. 

[frank_ezelle]

There's one factor that hasn't been mentioned that might be the deciding factor.  Millsaps plays on an artifical tuff field and I think they are much more comfortable on this consistent surface as opposed to the inconsistency of the tuff fields on the road. 

Maybe this is a poor comparison but in tennis a player is usually more comfortable on a particular surface and they develop a style that matches the surface.  While tennis has the added element of the bounce taken by the ball, much of a tennis player's comfort level deals with his movement on the court and the footing of the court. 

Millsaps has average almost 37 points per game at home and only 25 ppg on the road.  Some of that could be explain by the level of competition (thank you Lincoln University) but the offense sputtered at Austin, Sewanee, and Rhodes.  The points might not look too bad and the yardage might have been okay, but they didn't put together many of the 9-15 play drives like I see when they play at home.  I think the offense will be greatly helped by a return to the home field surface.

[frank_ezelle]

Millsaps has an excellent new SID this year (Kevin Maloney) and he has written a great preview about the upcoming game that would be an interesting read for Millsaps fans, Trinity fans, and D3 football fans.  Here's the link:

http://www.millsaps.edu/athletic/football/110806preview.shtml

[frank_ezelle]

Another quick posts with links to article's about the upcoming game.  First is a link to the Millsaps school newspaper.  It's quite q bit to download the entire paper but the sports are on page 9 and 10.  Page 9 has an interesting interview with Coach DuBose (I get credit here for a photo I did not take) and Page 10 has the story on the Rhodes game.  Here's that link:

http://www.millsaps.edu/p&w/

The other link is a story in today's local paper to a story with the headline "Miracle at Millsaps?" which is a fairly accurate headline given the difference between Trinity and Millsaps football over the last 15 years:

http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061109/SPORTS030105/611090353/1085