FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Pat Coleman]

Obviously a win changes everything immediately.  But what if TLU competed and lost by, say 14, would that actually increase perception of their ranking in voters' minds?

Anyone who wants to know the answer to this question should listen to last Monday's podcast. Or just observe how our voters have voted over the past decade. Plenty of precedent.

[jknezek]

On the flip side of the coin, however, here we are talking about TLU having a legitimate chance of competing with and/or defeating UMHB.  If this truly is the sentiment, how do you justify TLU's lack of ranking nationally? 

Obviously a win changes everything immediately.  But what if TLU competed and lost by, say 14, would that actually increase perception of their ranking in voters' minds?

I don't think there are too many neutral observers who think TLU stands very much of a chance. Within 14? Maybe. The game is at home and if UMHB is up by 17 or 21 in the fourth I could see backups getting scored on late. But I don't think too many people not associated with either program would take TLU with UMHB giving 14.

Could we all be surprised? Of course. But TLU really hasn't done anything to make people believe they can compete at that level. TLU hasn't faced a real playoff caliber team over their run. They won some close games against some mediocre teams in 2013, Trinity (5-5) by 4, MC (4-6) by 3, and got creamed by HSU (4-6) by 29. They did beat 7-3 LC by a couple, and that is where TLU is hanging their hat. This year TLU is looking better, only ETBU (3-3) and LC (2-4 on a BRUTAL schedule) have come within a TD, but there still isn't much of a signature win.

So lets look at the other teams in the bottom of the Top 25. Most have 1 loss, so it looks like TLU should be ahead. But Chapman lost to an elite Linfield by 7, H-SC lost to a top 10 Wabash by 13, Del Val is undefeated with wins over Lycoming and Montclair State (both 5-1), St. Thomas lost to ranked St. Johns by 10, St. Johns lost to ranked Concordia-Moorhead by 9, Concordia-Moorhead lost to top 11 Bethel by 10, and UW-SP who lost to ranked UW-P beat ranked NCC by 7.

If you take off your TLU blinders, TLU doesn't have anything to justify moving over teams that have all played someone important, and either won or played them tough. Now at some point the MIAC trio will bathe each other in blood and so will the UWW trio. That may open up room for TLU, if they play UMHB well and win the games they are supposed to win. Or any of the other close to the bottom teams could lose, opening up space for essentially number 26 TLU. But there just isn't a reason right now to move TLU into that grouping, and certainly not into the SJF, Witt, Bethel, Wabash, JHU, Hobart tier.

TLU has won 15 of 16? SJF ran to the final 8 last year. Witt is 25-5 in the last 3 years. Of those 5 loses, 2 are to D1 Butler, 2 are playoff loses, and one was to a ranked Wabash team. Bethel is 26-5. Of those loses, 2 are playoff loses, one was to national runner-up St. Thomas in conference, one was to a 7-3 St. Olaf team, and one is to the currently ranked Wartburg team. Wabash is 23-3. Two of those loses aren't great, one was to playoff team Witt last year. This year they own a win over currently ranked H-SC. Over the last four seasons, JHU is 36-4. 3 of those loses came in the playoffs, one to a 7-4 F&M team. Hobart over the last 3 seasons is 28-2. Both loses came in the playoffs.

What's the point of all this data? 16-1 with no playoff caliber teams on the schedule is not going to get you up a few tiers. There are a bunch of teams that have similar outcomes including playoff caliber teams.

TLU is doing well. They have come a long way from the 2007-2012 teams that couldn't break .500. But the proof is in winning big games, something TLU over the last season and a half hasn't played. This weekend is a big game for TLU. Give UMHB a good run for their money and you'll enter the Top 25 eventually (if the Bulldogs keep winning). Get blown out and you still have nothing to hang your hat on.

[DFWCrufan]

jknezek a good analysis, and I think many in the Cru-Nation would agree, one concern I think some in the nation have is getting complacent on the UMHB side, gotta stay frosty even though we are confident in the game. When we hit pool play things can change in a heartbeat, 15-16 still stings....A spritied TLU coming out hard like they did in the second half of TLU/ETBU could shake things up
But at the same time I do hope to see programs out there get better, develop and become a force in the south, Louisiana like you mentioned had a brutal schedule but has taken it well, and I hope that Coach Dunn sharpens that edge there for the rest of this season and the next to come. I'd love to see UMHB/TLU continue a good healthy rivalry and the meetings become a fan favorite (Evey UMHB game for me is a fan fav  ) I personally am giddy for this game, and already planning next years trip to the Cruthedral to see UMHB/TLU there.

[jknezek]

I agree completely. If I was a UMHB fan I wouldn't have posted it. Wouldn't want to jinx it. But... for those of us without a dog in the fight inside 20 points will be surprising. Of course we've all been surprised before.

And I'm not implying that TLU at essentially 26 is over-rated. I think they are about where they should be. They are doing good things and playing good football. But those of us who have been around D3 and the boards for a while know the score when it comes to the elite teams and everyone else.

UWW has lost 4 regular season games in 10 seasons. UMU has lost 0 regular season games in 10 seasons. UMHB has lost 6 regular season games in 10 seasons, none since 2009. Linfield has lost 1 regular season game since the 2008 season. Wesley has lost 6 regular season games in 9 seasons.

It is a very rare event for these teams to lose in the regular season. TLU fans have reason to be excited, but the rest of us have reasons to be very, very skeptical.

FYI -- I think UMHB has had 3 games in the last 3 regular seasons inside 14 points. None so far this year, an 11 point win over LC in 2013, a 7 point win over Wesley and a 13 point win over HSU in 2012. Yeah, only one single possession regular season game in 2.5 regular seasons. Will TLU add to that? We will see.

[Tekken]

I think you might be misconstruing my intent a little.  Trust me, there are no blinders on here.  I'm not currently, nor have I yet, proclaimed TLU "should" be ranked much higher.  I understand and agree with almost every point you make.  If it truly the case that TLU is a 20 - 30 ranked caliber team, then the game this weekend should be no contest (ie. 24 points).  And if it is a no contest (ie. 24 points), how much should they really fall in the rankings?  A blowout again (which I think is still a possibility) would obviously change everything.  Yet it seems many here think there is a good chance TLU competes with or even challenges UMHB for a victory (something I also see as a distinct possibility).  If that's the case, they are more accurately a 5 - 12 ranked team I would think.

Assuming they lose by 24 this weekend, they probably won't sniff the top 25 until maybe season's end, based on the "who have they beaten" argument, though they may be a 15th ranked caliber team in actuality.  There's no way to know.  That raises my previous question, because TLU has indeed beaten everyone else (on the road, at that) geographically.  Given the current landscape of division III football in the south, without traveling to Chicago, California, Oregon, Delaware, etc. is there really any chance of them ever making that jump from ranked 20 - 30 to 12 - 20 without playing UMHB tight and/or winning?

[jknezek]

Given the current landscape of division III football in the south, without traveling to Chicago, California, Oregon, Delaware, etc. is there really any chance of them ever making that jump from ranked 20 - 30 to 12 - 20 without playing UMHB tight and/or winning?

The answer is yes. The solution is making the playoffs. If TLU hadn't gotten shellacked by a mediocre at best HSU team last year they would have had a chance to prove they belong. An undefeated TLU probably earns a "B" last year. But they didn't. So the reason they haven't had top tier competition is because they didn't play any last year. That is a function of not playing UMHB and a truly bad loss costing them the chance to really prove themselves. This year they have the chance to rectify those problems. It will be interesting to see if they take it. Don't get creamed Saturday and win out and there is probably a decent chance of getting that second B. U of Chicago and possibly the MASCAC champion are the main competition for it. MASCAC depending on their A/B status. U of Chicago lost by 31 to a very good Bethel team. Do better than that against UMHB and TLU might be in the running.

[wally_wabash]

I think TLU losing by only 24 would exceed expectations.  More interesting to me than the score margin is whether or not TLU can not give up 60 or 70 in a big game against a really good team.  As long as that continues to be a thing that happens, TLU can't reasonably expect poll recognition. 

[TLU02SA]

A really tough day for the Bulldogs.  I am still proud of them.  They need to regroup for Trinity next week and finish this season off strong.  Congrats to the Cru and TLU will regroup and try again next year at the temple in Belton.

[Ron Boerger]

UMHB is just really, really, REALLY good.    Reminds me of the time I saw Mt Union play Trinity in the Stagg Bowl back in the day, you just don't know how good they are until you see them in person.

[TLU02SA]

Ron, you are right.  I really thought TLU's offense would be better today.  I was concerned about the defense but I thought the offense would keep it close throughout the game.  I was wrong.  TLU, to get to where they (the coaches and players) and we (the alumni and fans) want them go, are going to have to go through some growing pains.  Today was definitely a lesson type of day.  Still looking forward to the SCAC match ups this year and have a lot of confidence that this TLU team will finish the season out strong.

[Toby Taff]

UMHB is just really, really, REALLY good.    Reminds me of the time I saw Mt Union play Trinity in the Stagg Bowl back in the day, you just don't know how good they are until you see them in person.

Did you go today?

[umhb2001]

UMHB still the best. What a show of dominance!

[umhb2001]

A really tough day for the Bulldogs.  I am still proud of them.  They need to regroup for Trinity next week and finish this season off strong.  Congrats to the Cru and TLU will regroup and try again next year at the temple in Belton.

The CRUthedral welcomes you!

TLU has some great guys on the line both sides of the ball. What they accomplished is something special, and they are growing. When I first saw Whitewater, I couldn't believe how big they were, how fast to the ball. They were just that good.

Good luck the rest of the way.

[Ron Boerger]

UMHB is just really, really, REALLY good.    Reminds me of the time I saw Mt Union play Trinity in the Stagg Bowl back in the day, you just don't know how good they are until you see them in person.

Did you go today?

Naw, Toby, the spanking I saw last year in Belton was enough for me.   

[Kelly Boggs]

Continued success to TLU the remainder of the season. UMHB will roll out the purple carpet when you visit the CRUthedral next year.