FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[ASCleatus]

Logan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

TLU playoff berth most likely has them traveling to the ASC champs right? Would renew old matchups and give TLU a chance to make a huge statement.

[Pat Coleman]

Logan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

TLU playoff berth most likely has them traveling to the ASC champs right? Would renew old matchups and give TLU a chance to make a huge statement.

An unbeaten ASC champ probably gets a first-round bye. Not sure where TLU would seed out.

[ASCleatus]

Logan Hanson tweeted today that if TLU wins out they have a 99.1% chance of being selected.

TLU playoff berth most likely has them traveling to the ASC champs right? Would renew old matchups and give TLU a chance to make a huge statement.

An unbeaten ASC champ probably gets a first-round bye. Not sure where TLU would seed out.

Forgot about first round byes this year. Assuming it is HSU thats one way to get past round 1.

[Ralph Turner]

TLU wins but drops from C#13 to C #15 and from #36 to #40 in Logan Hanson's projections of the NPI.

His calculated NPI is 62.96 (which I  believe is a tad bit lower this week.)

I am pessimistic of a 9-1 TLU sneaking into the playoff.

I saw McMurry today and they should have had 2 more TD's.

[tigerguy]

TLU wins but drops from C#13 to C #15 and from #36 to #40 in Logan Hanson's projections of the NPI.

His calculated NPI is 62.96 (which I  believe is a tad bit lower this week.)

I am pessimistic of a 9-1 TLU sneaking into the playoff.

I saw McMurry today and they should have had 2 more TD's.

Where is his updated NPI projections? Hadn't seen any update on twitter.

[Ralph Turner]

My browser found this at 7:36PM

https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/

TLU needs help.

#76 Case Western is at Grove City, currently #32 and bid #C9, and then versus Carnegie Mellon #21 and bid #C4. TLU needs CWRU to win both.

In the Midwest Conference, #35 Monmouth (Bid #C11) is at Lake Forest #16. Lake Forest must prevail.

#34 Wabash (Bid #C10) still has #7 DePauw in the Monon Bell Game. TLU needs DePauw to win.

#36 Linfield (Bid #C12) is at #10 Whitworth on 11/16. Whitworth needs to win.

[tigerguy]

Awesome thanks! D3 site had switched its link for NPI projection to the NCAA site (https://stats.ncaa.org/season_divisions/18386/selection_rankings/current_rankings).

[Pat Coleman]

Ralph, that is not Logan Hansen's projection. It's the current NPI only using games played to date.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph, that is not Logan Hansen's projection. It's the current NPI only using games played to date.

Thank you.


I am even more pessimistic.

[Ralph Turner]

Coach Neal has turned the McMurry program around. If we imagine improvement of football teams measures out like a mathematical "S-shaped curve", now the improvements are tougher to attain.

[tigerguy]

Ralph, that is not Logan Hansen's projection. It's the current NPI only using games played to date.

Thank you.


I am even more pessimistic.

Didn't Hansen give them less than a 1%chance of missing playoffs if TLU won out? Is this just historical TLU-luck pessimism or did something change that I missed? I assume you're just looking at NPI rankings as they currently look, but don't Hansen's playoff-chance projections also take the remaining two weeks into account?

[Pat Coleman]

Ralph, that is not Logan Hansen's projection. It's the current NPI only using games played to date.

Thank you.


I am even more pessimistic.

Didn't Hansen give them less than a 1%chance of missing playoffs if TLU won out? Is this just historical TLU-luck pessimism or did something change that I missed? I assume you're just looking at NPI rankings as they currently look, but don't Hansen's playoff-chance projections also take the remaining two weeks into account?

He did, and yes, they do.

[TLU05SA]

The Bulldogs have taken care of business and TLU will s a very good football team. Hopefully, they are given the opportunity to compete in the playoffs. We will see.

Centenary is an interesting program. For a first year program, they are good. I was impressed by them both times they played TLU this season. Not a great team but they are building a program the right way. I expect them to be a very good in two or three years. Their FloSports presentation was the best I have watched all season. Seems like they are building a great atmosphere there. Centenary seems to have desires to build a very good program.

[Ralph Turner]

Update - I have not found a more recent NPI table to reflect the games of 11/09.

Nevertheless, here is an update from last weekend

TLU needs help.

#76 Case Western is at Grove City, currently #32 and bid #C9, and then versus Carnegie Mellon #21 and bid #C4. TLU needs CWRU to win both.  CWRU lost to Grove City.

In the Midwest Conference, #35 Monmouth (Bid #C11) is at Lake Forest #16. Lake Forest must and did prevail.

#34 Wabash (Bid #C10) still has #7 DePauw in the Monon Bell Game. TLU needs DePauw to win this Saturday.

#36 Linfield (Bid #C12) is at #10 Whitworth on 11/16. Whitworth needs to win to win this Saturday.

Fortunately Cortland and Mount Union won.

[tigerguy]

Here is the NPI projections done by D3datacast - looks like you just missed it. Obviously not the official NPI from the NCAA, but their projections have tracked the NCAA's official releases fairly accurately. TLU currently comfortably above the cut line at 34, but a lot can happen this last week.

Edit: Dummy forgot to paste link: https://d3datacast.com/npi/football/