FB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[Ralph Turner]

Awesome thanks! D3 site had switched its link for NPI projection to the NCAA site (https://stats.ncaa.org/season_divisions/18386/selection_rankings/current_rankings).

Wow! TLU jumps to #34 and ahead of Trinity and UMHB and 64.636, above Logan Hansen's "64".

TLU hosts Southwestern (4-5).

[Pat Coleman]

Awesome thanks! D3 site had switched its link for NPI projection to the NCAA site (https://stats.ncaa.org/season_divisions/18386/selection_rankings/current_rankings).

Wow! TLU jumps to #34 and ahead of Trinity and UMHB and 64.636, above Logan Hansen's "64".

TLU hosts Southwestern (4-5).

It's as if Logan was correct a few weeks ago when he said if TLU wins out, 99% chance they get in the field.

[Ralph Turner]

TLU got help from Cortland with their 38yd FG with 0:27 left to beat Brockport 29-28. Brockport would likely have earned the E8 Pool A bid and Cortland would have been a Bubble Buster.

These teams are likely to get bids regardless.
Linfield (#25 & C4) is at Whitworth (#9) for the NWC bid.
Bethel (#19 and C) at St John's (#3) for the MIAC bid.
Ursinus (#26 C5) is at Dickinson

This game could be a Bubble Busters: the lower ranked team upsets the higher ranked team to earn the Pool A (ranking in parentheses):

NEWMAC (#8) Springfield at (#57)SUNY-Maritime

In the Presidents AC, Carnegie Mellon, Grove City and W&J are all 7-1. Each likely gets a bid. It seems remote that an upset might knock on of them from at least a Pool C bid.

Carnegie Mellon (#23 and C2) is at CWRU (6-3 #81).
W&J (#20 and projected Pool A)  is at Allegheny (1-8)
Grove City (#24 and C3) is Westminster PA (7-2 #58).

I think that TLU is safe (and as predicted by Logan Hanson two weeks ago.)

(You know, when your conference is ranked #26 of 29, it is difficult to be optimistic.)

[TLU05SA]

This is all good news but TLU still has to take care of its business this Saturday. If TLU plays like they have been the past four weeks, TLU should have no problem handling Southwestern in Seguin but TLU can't look past Southwestern.

[Ron Boerger]

If SW plays like they did Trinity, TLU should have little difficulty as the Pirates basically can't throw the ball (60 yards for the game). 

Today's D3football.com podcasts posits both TLU and Trinity getting a bid in which case you'll see the Tigers in Seguin a week from Saturday.

[Ralph Turner]

Big game in Abilene this weekend.

McMurry is going for a Co-Championship and a 7-3 record, the best since 2011.
Centenary is going a 5-5 record in year #1.

[TLU05SA]

If SW plays like they did Trinity, TLU should have little difficulty as the Pirates basically can't throw the ball (60 yards for the game). 

Today's D3football.com podcasts posits both TLU and Trinity getting a bid in which case you'll see the Tigers in Seguin a week from Saturday.

SW is going to need to pass the ball to have a chance against TLU. From my observation, TLU's defense does a good job stopping the run. It is long passing plays that have been their problem. If SW does not complete passes, TLU is just going to load up the line of scrimmage and SW will have a difficult time getting anything going. TLU has only had three games this season where they have given up more than 20 points for the game. They gave up 31 in their loss to McMurry, 34 in their win at home against Austin (20 of those were in the 4th quarter when the game was decided), and 23 this past week at Centenary.

SW needs to score because TLU's offense is dynamic. TLU has a very good run game between the QB and their running backs. Their passing game is not great but it is good enough to keep defenses honest. A lot of quick passes and passing plays that get the QB out of the pocket, where he is a threat to run or pass. TLU mixes in enough deep passing plays, mostly when the QB is out of the pocket, to mix things up and keep defenses second guessing. In their wins this year, TLU has put up 35, 31, 49, 43, 55, 28, 45 and 46 points.  They only scored 10 points in their lone loss to McMurry and the 28-point game was the win against McMurry. In all other games, TLU is scoring 31+ points.

[TLU05SA]

Big game in Abilene this weekend.

McMurry is going for a Co-Championship and a 7-3 record, the best since 2011.
Centenary is going a 5-5 record in year #1.

I said this in a post above but I just want to emphasize it. Centenary is building a really good program. The record this year is helped by playing Austin College and Lyons twice but I have been impressed by the progress they have made this year. Their home field experience appeared energetic and lively and appear to be marketing the program very well. I could see that program exceeding expectations very quickly.

[Ron Boerger]

SW is going to need to pass the ball to have a chance against TLU. From my observation, TLU's defense does a good job stopping the run. It is long passing plays that have been their problem. If SW does not complete passes, TLU is just going to load up the line of scrimmage and SW will have a difficult time getting anything going. TLU has only had three games this season where they have given up more than 20 points for the game. They gave up 31 in their loss to McMurry, 34 in their win at home against Austin (20 of those were in the 4th quarter when the game was decided), and 23 this past week at Centenary.

SW needs to score because TLU's offense is dynamic. TLU has a very good run game between the QB and their running backs. Their passing game is not great but it is good enough to keep defenses honest. A lot of quick passes and passing plays that get the QB out of the pocket, where he is a threat to run or pass. TLU mixes in enough deep passing plays, mostly when the QB is out of the pocket, to mix things up and keep defenses second guessing. In their wins this year, TLU has put up 35, 31, 49, 43, 55, 28, 45 and 46 points.  They only scored 10 points in their lone loss to McMurry and the 28-point game was the win against McMurry. In all other games, TLU is scoring 31+ points.

Logan Hansen gives SW about a 20% to pull the upset.  They have been very inconsistent as pointed out when I looked last week's game on the SAA board.  If the team that played Centre even for three quarters (and was fairly successful through the air) or easily handled Rhodes shows up, maybe, but if the one the got blown out by Berry, Trinity, and lost to Millsaps does, not a chance. 

[HSUCowboy2015]

Big game in Abilene this weekend.

McMurry is going for a Co-Championship and a 7-3 record, the best since 2011.
Centenary is going a 5-5 record in year #1.

Best way to achieve success is running away from the conference you consistently got your butt whipped in.

[Ron Boerger]

Funny how the schools that *don't* play football also left (or will after this year).  Maybe the problem in the ASC is not simply getting "your butt whipped" in one sport.

[TLU05SA]

Big game in Abilene this weekend.

McMurry is going for a Co-Championship and a 7-3 record, the best since 2011.
Centenary is going a 5-5 record in year #1.

Best way to achieve success is running away from the conference you consistently got your butt whipped in.

And the teams remaining in the ASC wonder why they are in this predicament...

[HSUCowboy2015]

Funny how the schools that *don't* play football also left (or will after this year).  Maybe the problem in the ASC is not simply getting "your butt whipped" in one sport.

Okay then look across the board. McMurry was consistently in the bottom half of the conference in all but two sports. (They dominate track and field, softball is middle of the pack). LETU has a really strong MBB, but outside of that bottom feeders. TLU has been good at football and MBB in the past, I think they've both taken a step back. But props to them they competed in the ASC for football a few years (Even went toe to toe with HSU). Concordia has a good baseball program and a middle of the pack MBB team, outside of that not much else. Meanwhile the state schools are going D2, which I agree with, that's where they need to be. Who else would you like to examine?

There are three teams that have had a chokehold on success in the ASC and those are the three out of the four that remain. I think Amy Carleton was horrible at her job, but I believe the main factor is they're tired of losing.

Football it's been UMHB and HSU.
MBB - it's been a toss up, but it's been HSU, UMHB, ETBU, or UTD.
WBB - it's been HSU, UMHB, ETBU, and UTD.
WSOC - HSU with a small hint of UMHB
MSOC - UMHB or UTD
Softball - ETBU or UTT
Baseball - UTT, UTD, ETBU, with a hint of CTX

I would rather go play TLU, Schreiner, Southwestern, Austin College, and Lyon too. 

[Ron Boerger]

True or not, at least all those schools will have a functional conference to play in going forward.

[HSUCowboy2015]

True or not, at least all those schools will have a functional conference to play in going forward.

Which is my point. The schools leaving are punishing the institutions that have had *too* much success. Must be nice to go 7-3 in a new conference, where you get to play Austin College and Lyon twice and a program that is in its first year of varsity eligibility, with another on the way. Nothing like taking an easy road for "success".