East Region Playoff Discussion

[Knightstalker]

I think Rowan would be in the Wesley, Wheaton, SJF etc group right now.

[gordonmann]

Interesting concept.

It's similar to a theory I advanced a couple years ago which said there are essentially three tiers of playoff teams.

Tier I has the elite few who are national championship contenders.  Tier I could lose to Tier II, but it only happens very rarely (and even less rarely in the playoffs).  In most cases Tier I beats Tier II by 14+ points. Tier I doesn't lose to Tier III.

Tier II has the great teams who will go a couple rounds, depending on the match-up.  Sometimes Tier II teams play each other in the early rounds.  Tier II could beat a Tier I team if they play a tremendous game and Tier I plays poorly.  In most cases Tier II beats Tier III by 14+ points but could lose in an upset.

Tier III is everyone else who makes the playoffs.  Throw in the teams that just miss the playoffs in here, too, if you want.  They are contenders to make the playoffs and they might beat a Tier II team, but probably not more than one in the same playoff.  And they definitely don't beat Tier I. 

The trick is naming who is in each tier.   Before the season started, I would've put four teams in Tier I - Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB and Wesley.  In retrospect three of them still fit.

The litmus test between Tier II and Tier III is whether you could ever envision the team beating someone in Tier I.  Would Curry ever beat Mount Union?  Would Aurora ever beat Whitewater?  If not, then they are Tier III.

Tier II includes Wheaton, Hardin Simmons, Cortland, Ithaca, etc.  Tier III includes Curry (upsets Tier II Ithaca), Plymouth State, Lycoming, etc.

In this theory, Wheaton could beat Mount Union if everything breaks right, but wouldn't beat UW-Whitewater or Mary Hardin-Baylor in the Stagg Bowl.

And the teams within those Tiers can change over time.  Linfield was in Tier I a couple years ago and now is Tier III.  Same goes for Rowan.

Just a theory to play with.

[skunks_sidekick]

KR & XD - the ONLY reason I didn't have Rowan with Wesley/Wheaton group is that they haven't made the play-offs the last few years.  If they had, I would have probably put them above that group.  They are definitely in my group 6 for sure.

Gordon......WOW......I bow to your tier system.  You have said it much better, and much more succinctly that I could ever attempt.  However, I think your top grouping is not elite enough.  Other than that.....you da man!

[HScoach]

Interesting concept.

It's similar to a theory I advanced a couple years ago which said there are essentially three tiers of playoff teams.

Tier I has the elite few who are national championship contenders.  Tier I could lose to Tier II, but it only happens very rarely (and even less rarely in the playoffs).  In most cases Tier I beats Tier II by 14+ points. Tier I doesn't lose to Tier III.

Tier II has the great teams who will go a couple rounds, depending on the match-up.  Sometimes Tier II teams play each other in the early rounds.  Tier II could beat a Tier I team if they play a tremendous game and Tier I plays poorly.  In most cases Tier II beats Tier III by 14+ points but could lose in an upset.

Tier III is everyone else who makes the playoffs.  Throw in the teams that just miss the playoffs in here, too, if you want.  They are contenders to make the playoffs and they might beat a Tier II team, but probably not more than one in the same playoff.  And they definitely don't beat Tier I. 

The trick is naming who is in each tier.   Before the season started, I would've put four teams in Tier I - Mount Union, Whitewater, UMHB and Wesley.  In retrospect three of them still fit.

The litmus test between Tier II and Tier III is whether you could ever envision the team beating someone in Tier I.  Would Curry ever beat Mount Union?  Would Aurora ever beat Whitewater?  If not, then they are Tier III.

Tier II includes Wheaton, Hardin Simmons, Cortland, Ithaca, etc.  Tier III includes Curry (upsets Tier II Ithaca), Plymouth State, Lycoming, etc.

In this theory, Wheaton could beat Mount Union if everything breaks right, but wouldn't beat UW-Whitewater or Mary Hardin-Baylor in the Stagg Bowl.

And the teams within those Tiers can change over time.  Linfield was in Tier I a couple years ago and now is Tier III.  Same goes for Rowan.

Just a theory to play with.

Gordon,

That's a perfect synopysis of D3.  We've often had a discussion similar to this around A-town, but we've never put it so clearly. 

What makes Mount Union into The Maching is that they've been clearly Tier I since the early 1990's.  And should remain there as long as LK is the coach. 

Mount might not be the best team every year, but for the last 15 years they've been one of the handful of teams that COULD win it ever year.  And LK has done it with drastically different styles and schemes over the years.  The year in and year out consistency of being no worse than a semi-finalist is more remarkable to me than the 9 titles.   

It's hard to climb the mountain, but even harder to remain on top.

[HScoach]

Another discussion that I often have come playoff time with folks around the office that aren't big D3 fans is the difference between D1 and D3. 

IMHO, the difference between the top and bottom of D1 isn't nearly as big as the difference in D3. 

Even the bottom worst D1 team/conference has athletes that aren't that much smaller, slower, weaker than the top teams.  As a complete team/unit, the bottom of D1 might be 60% physically of the top D1 schools. 

However at D3, I think the difference between the top and bottom is HUGE and more like 10% of the best.   The top of D3 is very, very good.  But the bottom of D3 is very, very weak.

As an example from sending some and following other local HS players off to college, the difference between kids that get scholarships to the Big Ten schools isn't that much different than the ones that end up at the MAC schools like Bowling Green, Toledo, Akron, etc. 

But by contrast there is a HUGE difference between the HS kids that can play at Mount Union versus those that play at Oberlin, Hiram, etc. 

I coached a few great HS players at my small, local high school that were just a couple inches too short or 20 pounds too light to get D1 looks that ended up at Mount, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, etc.  And these kids didn't see the field until their junior or senior seasons in college. 

I also had a few kids that barely made the starting lineup in HS go to some of the lesser NCAC schools and start as underclassmen.  One kid in particular wasn't a starter for me in until his senior year in HS but he was a 4 year starter at left guard at Hiram.   

[Pat Coleman]

HSCoach, I would definitely agree with you about that at the Division I level IF you are only talking about the FBS, which is half the size of Division III. When you include all of Division I, including the FCS, then you have a sample size very similar to Division III. And the difference between Florida and, say, Iona, is in my mind similar to the difference between Mount Union and Principia.

Just my $.02.

[HScoach]

Sorry for the confusion.  In my mind I'm still thinking in terms of D1 and D1-AA.

[Ralph Turner]

I still wonder how good Hardin-Simmons is.  Can we imply "coattails" from their games with UMHB.

They went toe-to-toe with UMHB, and UMHB had the better kicking game and special teams, in both games! 

UMHB is clearly hitting the "second season" in stride, so they may be jelling after the Southern Oregon game forced the team to "re-tool".

I want to return to this discussion after UMHB finishes its season.

[theaprof]

all wheaton fans, i will be joining saintsfan in alliance and also would like to meet even more great d3 posters from around the country.  i will be making the trip to the wing warehouse to join the muc fans on friday, hope to see you all there.  maybe saints and i will have to referee any disagreements as we have no dog in the fight.

I doubt there will be any need for a referee--we really are a pretty friendly bunch.  I know the invite has been given, but let me repeat that ALL are welcome at the Wing Warehouse on West State Street in Alliance--things will start around 9:00.  We'd love to get the opportunity to chat with any Wheaton fans or for that matter any fans of DIII football.  Wear your team colors and look for the rowdy bunch dressed in purple!!!

Rumor has it that as long as we talk, at least a little bit, about the finer points of broadcasting (or anything else business related) that hscoach is buying at least one round.  I'm sure that whatever he does for the Raider fans, he would be glad to do for the Thunder fans as well--except Thundermom--but April, we'd love to meet you!!

I extend the invitation to join us to all on this board!

[Small but Slow]

Another discussion that I often have come playoff time with folks around the office that aren't big D3 fans is the difference between D1 and D3. 

IMHO, the difference between the top and bottom of D1 isn't nearly as big as the difference in D3. 

Even the bottom worst D1 team/conference has athletes that aren't that much smaller, slower, weaker than the top teams.  As a complete team/unit, the bottom of D1 might be 60% physically of the top D1 schools. 

However at D3, I think the difference between the top and bottom is HUGE and more like 10% of the best.   The top of D3 is very, very good.  But the bottom of D3 is very, very weak.

As an example from sending some and following other local HS players off to college, the difference between kids that get scholarships to the Big Ten schools isn't that much different than the ones that end up at the MAC schools like Bowling Green, Toledo, Akron, etc. 

But by contrast there is a HUGE difference between the HS kids that can play at Mount Union versus those that play at Oberlin, Hiram, etc. 

I coached a few great HS players at my small, local high school that were just a couple inches too short or 20 pounds too light to get D1 looks that ended up at Mount, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, etc.  And these kids didn't see the field until their junior or senior seasons in college. 

I also had a few kids that barely made the starting lineup in HS go to some of the lesser NCAC schools and start as underclassmen.  One kid in particular wasn't a starter for me in until his senior year in HS but he was a 4 year starter at left guard at Hiram.   

Coach- That's exactly what I've been telling people here in FL about DIII football for years.  The difference between a MAC and a Mt. Union recruit is as little as an inch or two, a tenth in the 40, or a senior year injury.
The reality is that there is a DIII school that fits almost any level of football player.  Even some hs coaches here steer their marginal players toward junior colleges out of lack respect for the level of competition at the better programs. 

[DanPadavona]

I extend the invitation to join us to all on this board!

Sounds good Theaprof.  I have your Cortland merchandise in the mail for you.  Wear it with pride!   8)

[DanPadavona]

Augie6/USee-

My apologies to both of you.  I did not intend for the debate to become personal.  I also did not intend to disparage Wheaton/NCC, and my argument should have been worded more diplomatically.

Gordon Mann elucidated far more clearly the point I was trying to get across with his "Power Tiers", and it appears to have been well received.  It's definitely worth reading.  I may have him compose my points from now on.

Good luck to Wheaton with The Mount.

[XREDDRAGON77]

It appears that MUC is pouring it on thick and heavy right now.  24-0 with 6 min to go to the half!

[XREDDRAGON77]

Looks like Wheaton intercepted my post and used it for motivation.  They mustered up 10 points in 6 minutes to close the half.  31-10 

[Bombers798891]

Another discussion that I often have come playoff time with folks around the office that aren't big D3 fans is the difference between D1 and D3. 

IMHO, the difference between the top and bottom of D1 isn't nearly as big as the difference in D3. 

Even the bottom worst D1 team/conference has athletes that aren't that much smaller, slower, weaker than the top teams.  As a complete team/unit, the bottom of D1 might be 60% physically of the top D1 schools. 

However at D3, I think the difference between the top and bottom is HUGE and more like 10% of the best.   The top of D3 is very, very good.  But the bottom of D3 is very, very weak.

As an example from sending some and following other local HS players off to college, the difference between kids that get scholarships to the Big Ten schools isn't that much different than the ones that end up at the MAC schools like Bowling Green, Toledo, Akron, etc. 

But by contrast there is a HUGE difference between the HS kids that can play at Mount Union versus those that play at Oberlin, Hiram, etc. 

I coached a few great HS players at my small, local high school that were just a couple inches too short or 20 pounds too light to get D1 looks that ended up at Mount, Baldwin Wallace, John Carroll, etc.  And these kids didn't see the field until their junior or senior seasons in college. 

I also had a few kids that barely made the starting lineup in HS go to some of the lesser NCAC schools and start as underclassmen.  One kid in particular wasn't a starter for me in until his senior year in HS but he was a 4 year starter at left guard at Hiram.   

Here's my concern I guess with D-III...it's not so much the Top tier teams against the lower teir teams, although there are a lot of unseemly blowouts at our level.

The thing that worries me is that the VERY elite teams (MUC, UWW, etc.) just don't lose, even to other great teams. Where are the upsets? MUC has had basically a half of one decent challenge. They're in the national semis and up 31-10 at the half? And look at the stats: Muc has 356 total yards, 178 rushing and 178 passing. They're averaging 8 yards a rush and 10 yards per pass. And this against one of the best teams in the game?

Last season, they weren't even challenged untill the NC game. Whitewater's had some close ones, but again, where are the upsets of the truly elite teams? Does Curry beating Ithaca in the playoffs even matter in the larger scale with an MUC waiting in the wings?

I really hope MHB pulls off the win (They're up 7-5 now). The same NC game four years in a row? Here's a few questions:

1) Is that good for D-3? I'm not blaming anyone, just asking an honest question. This is the only game the national audience sees. Is it good to see the same teams again and again?

2) Does it say more about the MUC's and UWW's or the rest of the teams? Does it create an idea that, with the exception of 3-4 teams, they're all just playing for pride, because no-one's good enough to crash the party? I know MUC is sort of a unique case, but I mean, there's almost nothing quite like these guys in sport. Not only the sheer number of victories, but the amount of their wins. And it's year after year. Now you've got a mini-dynasty in UWW. Even back when you had IC, Augustana, Wittenberg winning back in the day, there was nothing like this aura of unbeatableness (Yes I made that up)

It'd be interesting to see some statistical analysis of the amount of upsets in D3 football. How many times this decade has a Top 10 team lost to a lower ranked team? To an unranked team? How many different teams do we see in the "Final 4", the NC game? I'd be very interested to see it