East Region Playoff Discussion

[Bombers798891]

As a result, they had 97 offensive plays.  Change offensive game plan to something more ball control oriented with 60 offensive plays and score could have been 35-10.

Just wanted to second the compliment of your interesting point about how a 31-3 win can be equally dominating/demoralizing as a 56-14 win, although the margin is vastly different, because of a difference in styles.  Well said.

FYI: Whitewater averaged 72 plays per game this season. Mount is at 73.4. IC, for comparison's sake, averaged 65.

Mount doesn't need 90+ plays to score in the 50s, 60s, and 70s. Remember, Mount isn't scoring most of these points in the 4th quarter. They scored 51 points in three quarters against ONU on 54 plays, and 59 in three against Wilmington on 65 plays. They scored 52 against Capital on 33 plays in one half. (Yes, there were defensive/special teams scores, but still) Frankly, with the Purple Raiders having 97 plays, Widener might be lucky Mount only put up 72.

Let's be honest: This team is playing on a level practically unseen, even by their standards. They are currently at +624 for points on the season. The best ever by a Mount team is 674. I'm not saying they'll get there, but they are in rare air. They scored 356 straight points at one juncture this season. (Widener scored 212 straight, but one, that's not even close to 356, and two, there were no first-year programs to pound on) They're simply obliterating everyone in a way that I don't think anyone else CAN.

[Bombers798891]

I also think that Tier list is WAY too generous. Here are my tiers, with some (not an exhaustive list) examples of the kinds of teams that make them up

I = Mount, with Whitewater there until this season

II = Teams where, if Mount/UW-W didn't exist, we'd see them having a number of these recent titles. Such as: MHB, St. Thomas, Linfield, Wesley, etc.

III = Teams that can win a couple of playoff games but then usually lose in major (Monkeystomp) fashion to a Tier II or I team Such as: Hobart/Widener this year, Cortland in 2008, Ithaca in 2001. They're not in the national title discussion even without Mount, but they're a really good team.

IV = Teams that will qualify for the playoffs, but are a first round tossup against teams that aren't really elite either. Cortland this year, Ithaca in 2005, Wick in 2007.

V = Teams that will battle for playoff spots, and a couple of plays may swing the season. Union, Springfield, Fisher, maybe Alfred this season. Usually, these teams miss the playoffs

VI = Decent teams, but none you would think about as a legit playoff contender thanks to certain flaws. Buff State, Utica, RPI might all be in here.

VII = Bad teams found littering the bottom of conferences. Wick, St. Lawrence, etc.

VIII = The really bad teams. Misericordia, the bottom half of the ECFC etc.

[gordonmann]

Bombers:

Your definitions for the top three are pretty close to the ones I offered a couple seasons ago.  I didn't go beyond Tier 3.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/tag/playoffs/page/3/

The way you determine if a team is Tier 2 or 3 is, "Could this team beat someone in Tier 1?"  If the answer is yes, then they are Tier 2.  If the answer is no, then they are Tier 3.

The biggest problem with this theory is Buffalo State's result against UW-Whitewater.  Anyone you consider equal to or better than Buffalo state would be Tier 2.  For now, let's set aside the Buffalo State result as an outlier (Nerd alert!).  Let's assume that Mount Union sits alone atop Tier 1.

So who could beat Mount Union?  This doesn't mean they would be favored on a neutral field or even at home.  It means, "If they play a tremendous game and Mount Union plays poorly, an upset is possible."

I think it's a really short list.

West: St. Thomas, UW-Oshkosh, Linfield
South: Mary Hardin-Baylor
East: None. 

You could argue that Wesley is also on Tier 2.  For now I'd leave them off since they've had several cracks at Mount Union and UW-Whitewater when they were Tier 1.  Beating Mary hardin-Baylor multiple times doesn't make Wesley Tier 2.  Only beating Mount would.  If Mary Hardin-Baylor beats Mount Union, then put Wesley on Tier 2.

Oshkosh hasn't beaten Mount Union in recent memory but they represent a conference who has multiple times.  Maybe not it's fair to ascribe UW-Whitewater's excellence to Oshkosh, but I'd give them the benefit of the doubt for now.

Linfield hasn't played Mount Union but they were competitive with elite UW-Whitewater when they played them twice (once with Brett Elliott at QB, once without).  That combined with the extremely close game against Oshkosh puts them in Tier 2 for me. 

Mary Hardin-Baylor probably sticks in Tier 2, even with a loss unless they get obliterated this weekend.  If St. Thomas plays Mount Union and loses by a lot, they would drop off Tier 2 for the same reason Wesley did.

All the east region teams are Tier 3 or lower if you use Bombers classification.  They are good teams and their accomplishments should not be diminished. But, unless they play other teams at Tier 3, they will be eliminated in the first two weeks of the playoffs. They might beat someone on Tier 2 if they play a tremendous game, but they are unlikely to do that twice in the same postseason. And they definitely don't beat Mount Union.

[wesleydad]

gordon, if mount is the focal point, then wesley is certainly tier 2.  they played mount tough both times they played them.  if umhb is tier 2 than wesley is also.  just my opinion.

[Bombers798891]

Bombers:

Your definitions for the top three are pretty close to the ones I offered a couple seasons ago.  I didn't go beyond Tier 3.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/tag/playoffs/page/3/

The way you determine if a team is Tier 2 or 3 is, "Could this team beat someone in Tier 1?"  If the answer is yes, then they are Tier 2.  If the answer is no, then they are Tier 3.

The biggest problem with this theory is Buffalo State's result against UW-Whitewater.  Anyone you consider equal to or better than Buffalo state would be Tier 2.

Mine isn't about if you could beat a team ahead of you in a one-game situation.

It's more like: These teams would be in the discussion to win the Stagg bowl if the teams in the tiers ahead of them didn't exist. This removes one game outliers like Buff State/Whitewater or even IC/Salisbury and focuses more on a team's overall strength.

[AO]

gordon, if mount is the focal point, then wesley is certainly tier 2.  they played mount tough both times they played them.  if umhb is tier 2 than wesley is also.  just my opinion.

Maybe looking over a 5 year period but based upon this year, with Mary Hardin being an underdog at Mount after having beat Wesley twice, you'd have to conclude those 3 teams are on different tiers.

[gordonmann]

Wesley Dad, you may be right.  You've seen those games and Wesley more closely than I have.

[lewdogg11]

gordon, if mount is the focal point, then wesley is certainly tier 2.  they played mount tough both times they played them.  if umhb is tier 2 than wesley is also.  just my opinion.

Maybe looking over a 5 year period but based upon this year, with Mary Hardin being an underdog at Mount after having beat Wesley twice, you'd have to conclude those 3 teams are on different tiers.

Wasn't MHB up by 5 half way through the 4th?  I wouldn't necessarily put them in different tiers.  Let's not get too cocky over 2 hard fought wins.

Not to mention a whopping 7 point win earlier in the year.  I'd put these 2 teams neck and neck.

[AO]

gordon, if mount is the focal point, then wesley is certainly tier 2.  they played mount tough both times they played them.  if umhb is tier 2 than wesley is also.  just my opinion.

Maybe looking over a 5 year period but based upon this year, with Mary Hardin being an underdog at Mount after having beat Wesley twice, you'd have to conclude those 3 teams are on different tiers.

Wasn't MHB up by 5 half way through the 4th?  I wouldn't necessarily put them in different tiers.  Let's not get too cocky over 2 hard fought wins.

Not to mention a whopping 7 point win earlier in the year.  I'd put these 2 teams neck and neck.

I'm a fan of making more tiers.  The great thing about the D3 playoff is that you eventually get your shot to play the best.  Wesley had their shot.  Maybe if I were to guess next year what tier they would be on for the 2013 season, I'd put them back up there with Mary Hardin, but I'd say that this year the Cru has earned a little distinction.

[mattvsmith]

All of you have forgotten the unsung powerhouse of the East, Salve, who was unjustly robbed of a Top 25 poll spot and playoff berth. Obviously a tier I team, tier II for those of you too obtuse to remove the SoS and the losses from your mental calculus. It's science. Phone it in and taste it.

[pg04]

All of you have forgotten the unsung powerhouse of the East, Salve, who was unjustly robbed of a Top 25 poll spot and playoff berth. Obviously a tier I team, tier II for those of you too obtuse to remove the SoS and the losses from your mental calculus. It's science. Phone it in and taste it.

No, now you're being acute.

[mattvsmith]

I failed to mention they were possessed of blazing speed, pg04. Please forgive my oversight.

[Pat Coleman]

Phone it in AND taste it! Well played.

[dlippiel]

gordon, if mount is the focal point, then wesley is certainly tier 2.  they played mount tough both times they played them.  if umhb is tier 2 than wesley is also.  just my opinion.

Maybe looking over a 5 year period but based upon this year, with Mary Hardin being an underdog at Mount after having beat Wesley twice, you'd have to conclude those 3 teams are on different tiers.

Wasn't MHB up by 5 half way through the 4th?  I wouldn't necessarily put them in different tiers.  Let's not get too cocky over 2 hard fought wins.

Not to mention a whopping 7 point win earlier in the year.  I'd put these 2 teams neck and neck.

I'm a fan of making more tiers.  The great thing about the D3 playoff is that you eventually get your shot to play the best.  Wesley had their shot.  Maybe if I were to guess next year what tier they would be on for the 2013 season, I'd put them back up there with Mary Hardin, but I'd say that this year the Cru has earned a little distinction.

Personally dlip has 200 tiers for 238 teams. If you ask dlip if a team defeats another by even one point his response is simply, "****in tier'um." Just sayin...

[Frank Rossi]

But Dlip, we hardly know'um.