East Region Playoff Discussion

[labart96]

So if a) MSU goes 10-0 and b) the Chairwoman sticks to her word (i.e., MUC doesn't get shipped in) and c) the east doesn't get two pool C's:

Who is your 8th team in the bracket (assuming that you have NJAC champ, MAC champ, E8 champ, SJFC/pool c, NEFC Champ, SUNY M/pool b and SLU/LL champ in "your projection")?

I don't need an 8th team from the East to complete a bracket.  As I always say, don't look at this process in a vacuum -- the South and/or North will likely have 9 or 10 teams, requiring a rotation of a "border team" (a team close to the East Region's borderlines for travel purposes) to alleviate oversubscription in that other bracket.  So, long story short, I currently feel that just 7 teams from the East qualify.  Last year, remember, MUC and W&J were both imported -- this is just a reminder of the flexibility the Committee has here.

I wasn't insinuating you needed the 8th team to be from the "east", just trying to get a sense what teams could potentially be "shipped in" based on what you know of other regions as a Top 25 voter.

The Cortland poster has a point - MSU isn't a lock yet - but like the other comments, I hope they win out to see if they do in fact get "rewarded".

[PBR...]

bottom line is the committee plays the record and that is it...period! A team could schedule to play the sister mary school of the blind every week go 10-0 and get a bid over a team that goes 9-1 playing top 25 schools every week. strength of schedule, etc...means NOTHING! The committee has shown every year that you should play the easiest schedule possible and it will be rewarded. To me it is a highly flawed way of selecting teams and ruins the chances of seeing really good teams matchup during the regular season.....Would love to see DVC go play sjf/ithaca/alfred/hobart/etc...during the regular season but the committee basically penalizes you for taking that risk. Look at this year...DVC goes to Wesley's field loses late 21-17. Now they get punished for having the strongest  strength of schedule in the country (listed earlier by tgp) and losing to the #3 team on the road. Everyone now see's them as a #2 or #3 seed in the east when imho they probably should be the #1 seed. People can argue Montclair but to this person their s.o.s. doesn't come close to matching up. To me the selection committee has very little credibility when they continually reward teams for playing cupcakes and that is how you get blowouts and embarrassing losses in the first round.


EDIT: Yes we know that budgets factor in to this a part as well so that has to carry some weight hence also why you get a lesser field. So before people blast my views thought pbr would throw that out there....just venting a little that is all...tired of seeing good teams not make over a team that schedules a bunch of weak sisters

[theoriginalupstate]

I agree with everything you said PBR, DVC is the best team in the East Region right now, but we all know it's the NCAA and their system we're dealing with...

Based on the field results and if they don't import UMU, DVC should be the #1 seed in the East but we all know it's not going to happen.  Yes it sucks but it is what it is...

[Jonny Utah]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

[theoriginalupstate]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

As well as being undefeated...

[clandfan]

Interesting how all are annointing MSU as NJAC champ.  Perhaps it is wishful thinking as the only hope to keep MUC out of the east.  Methiinks, however, that Cortland could spoil that party.

What happens with a three-way NJAC tie?  Contrary to JT on the NJAC board, I have heard that there is NO fresh blood clause.  That being said, nobody knows the tie-breakers.

In this scenario, NJAC has three 9-1 teams.  MY guess is MUC comes East and NJAC only gets their champ in.

Nobody is discounting that scenario.  What we're doing is assuming all teams win out at this point (or better stated, the season stops today and the Committee meets).  It's not the Committee's job to predict game results -- nor is it ours when we "play" Committee members for a day here.  This isn't the board for hurt egos and the such -- this is more for educated guesses as to where things stand right now.

Hurt egos?  I must have missed the memo prohibiting what-if scenarios in the Plaoff DISCUSSION Board.  Get over yourself.  There isn't a fan in the NJAC who isn't aware of the possibility and interested in how such a scenario would play out.  Excuse me for thinking you might have some input.  Give me a freakin break you pompous a**

[PBR...]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

As well as being undefeated...

BINGO!!   YAHTZEE!! That was the point being made...its all about the record...to this person it stinks when you penalize teams for playing hard schedules and good opponents. You get a watered down product...as others have said it is what it is....

[Jonny Utah]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

As well as being undefeated...

Yea but being undefeated and being one of the top 4 teams in the country usually goes hand in hand.  I'd bet that if MUC played UWW this year and lost by 3, MUC would still get a #1 seed (and/or be ranked in the top 4 still).

[PBR...]

Would love to see (won't ever happen) the selection committee use the ncaa men's hoops analysis for selection....reward teams for playing good competition and going on the road and playing top teams. It separates teams, let's you see who is for real and who is a pretender. When you force teams to play cupcakes it's very difficult to tell who is worthy for selection. You eventually will end up with a ton of teams 10-0/9-1 and all playing the weakest competitors and have no idea who is for real. Thus blowouts in the first round and no idea if you really have a true national champion. Who says a team the got left out couldn't of gotten hot and run the table....likely? no but still you can't say for sure so it leaves the question of did the best team really win the national championship....just food for thought

[pg04]

Interesting how all are annointing MSU as NJAC champ.  Perhaps it is wishful thinking as the only hope to keep MUC out of the east.  Methiinks, however, that Cortland could spoil that party.

What happens with a three-way NJAC tie?  Contrary to JT on the NJAC board, I have heard that there is NO fresh blood clause.  That being said, nobody knows the tie-breakers.

In this scenario, NJAC has three 9-1 teams.  MY guess is MUC comes East and NJAC only gets their champ in.

Nobody is discounting that scenario.  What we're doing is assuming all teams win out at this point (or better stated, the season stops today and the Committee meets).  It's not the Committee's job to predict game results -- nor is it ours when we "play" Committee members for a day here.  This isn't the board for hurt egos and the such -- this is more for educated guesses as to where things stand right now.

Hurt egos?  I must have missed the memo prohibiting what-if scenarios in the Plaoff DISCUSSION Board.  Get over yourself.  There isn't a fan in the NJAC who isn't aware of the possibility and interested in how such a scenario would play out.  Excuse me for thinking you might have some input.  Give me a freakin break you pompous a**

I think you are probably misinterpreting and overreacting to what Frank said.  Pretty much, we are discussing the situation AS IT STANDS right now. 

Of course, you are allowed to discuss the what if Cortland wins, but right now the discussion was what would happen in the situation we currently have (Montclair Undefeated). 

[theoriginalupstate]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

As well as being undefeated...

Yea but being undefeated and being one of the top 4 teams in the country usually goes hand in hand.  I'd bet that if MUC played UWW this year and lost by 3, MUC would still get a #1 seed.

They were a #2 seed in their region in 2005 when they lost to Ohio Northern...

[Frank Rossi]

Hurt egos?  I must have missed the memo prohibiting what-if scenarios in the Plaoff DISCUSSION Board.  Get over yourself.  There isn't a fan in the NJAC who isn't aware of the possibility and interested in how such a scenario would play out.  Excuse me for thinking you might have some input.  Give me a freakin break you pompous a**

Glad we didn't have this discussion in a bar on the Jersey shore -- you might go all Snooki on me or something...

And we all know I'm pompous.  I've never hidden from that.  I'm part of a verb here, for Christ's sake (see Upstate's usage of "going all Frank Rossi on" people).  However, even PG and PBR can see my point through my pomposity.  :-)

Anyway, what input would I have since your conference has set up a tiebreaker for which the NCAA has no published numbers to aid us in figuring out the results (see my NJAC post).  There's a good chance that even if Cortland were to beat Montclair, Montclair still wins the Pool A bid.  And if that's the case, then Rowan would still be placed ahead of Cortland (and SJF may be ahaead of Rowan).  Thus, Cortland would potentially never see the light of day in the selection since it might never be the top team left in the East's picking order for Pool C purposes.

That's what I mean, though -- we can't make a determination of what your school's chances are if there is a merry-go-round tie.  All I can say is, assuming Rowan, Montclair and Cortland all end up with one conference loss, Cortland MUST win the conference to get in the playoffs based on the loss to Rowan.  Liberty League fans wonder, "What if SLU loses two and Hobart wins out?"  However, TGP isn't asking that question here because he understands that we have to assess what we can assess for the time being.  We have individual conference message boards to get into all that -- and the ERFP Board to measure where our teams fall in the fans' opinions.

[Frank Rossi]

Here's my prediction of how the East Region Rankings will look when they get released this week:

1) Montclair State
2) Delaware Valley
3) SUNY-Maritime
4) Alfred
5) Rowan
6) St. John Fisher
7) Western New England
8) Norwich
9) Cortland State
10) Maine Maritime

Just to give an indication of how different my own beliefs are (along the lines of PBR's post regarding how different our perceptions and the Committee's use of criteria are), here is my Lambert Poll ballot from this week with Wesley, Thomas More, Ursinus and Salisbury removed (so I only go six deep here -- you'll get my point, though):

1) Delaware Valley
2) Montclair State
3) Rowan
4) Alfred
5) St. John Fisher
6) SUNY-Maritime

[Jonny Utah]

I agree that DVC may be the best team in the "east" but we have to remember that the playoffs simply aren't broken down like that anymore.  Basically if you want to be the #1 team in the east, you are going to have to be the #4 team in the country.

As well as being undefeated...

Yea but being undefeated and being one of the top 4 teams in the country usually goes hand in hand.  I'd bet that if MUC played UWW this year and lost by 3, MUC would still get a #1 seed.

They were a #2 seed in their region in 2005 when they lost to Ohio Northern...

A 2005 Ohio Northern is not a 2010 UWW. 

[Knightstalker]

TGP -

If Montclair finishes at 10-0, they will likely be the #1 seed.  Remember, the Chairwoman of the Selection Committee is the Athletics Director of an NJAC school (Rowan).  

SLU, if they win the LL, would be a #8 seed -- no doubts on that one.  Just because a team comes from Pool C doesn't mean they are a lesser team in seeding.  Seeding is done as a second procedure after selection.  SJFC would be toward a #4/#5 seed (obviously behind Alfred if they remain at those loss numbers of 1).  

Overall, I have two problems with your team selections.  First, SJFC and Rowan probably don't both get Pool C bids when things shake out -- the East getting two Pool C slots is going to be a challenge, especially when SoS shakes out (Rowan's remaining opponents have W/L of like 4-17 and will likely fall below SJFC).  Also, SUNY-Maritime still hasn't lost.  The assumption that Norwich wins is a bad assumption still until it happens.  

The only support I can give you related to placing MUC in the East is the idea that the geographic fit still makes sense in a lot of situations (including SLU).  However, I'll take the Committee Chair and former Committee member we've spoken to at their word that a quality 10-0 team will not be punished with the rotation of MUC into the Region's bracket.

The AD from Rowan is supposed to remove herself from the process when an NJAC team comes up.  At least this is how I was told the NCAA does it for basketball, I would think they would have the same requirement for football.

The NJAC does have a new blood or Rose Bowl rule, see the post from Fran Elia on the NJAC board outlining the NJAC tiebreakers.  Frank does have a good argument against some of them but they are what they are for now.