East Region Playoff Discussion

[Frank Rossi]

TGP -

If Montclair finishes at 10-0, they will likely be the #1 seed.  Remember, the Chairwoman of the Selection Committee is the Athletics Director of an NJAC school (Rowan).  

SLU, if they win the LL, would be a #8 seed -- no doubts on that one.  Just because a team comes from Pool C doesn't mean they are a lesser team in seeding.  Seeding is done as a second procedure after selection.  SJFC would be toward a #4/#5 seed (obviously behind Alfred if they remain at those loss numbers of 1).  

Overall, I have two problems with your team selections.  First, SJFC and Rowan probably don't both get Pool C bids when things shake out -- the East getting two Pool C slots is going to be a challenge, especially when SoS shakes out (Rowan's remaining opponents have W/L of like 4-17 and will likely fall below SJFC).  Also, SUNY-Maritime still hasn't lost.  The assumption that Norwich wins is a bad assumption still until it happens.  

The only support I can give you related to placing MUC in the East is the idea that the geographic fit still makes sense in a lot of situations (including SLU).  However, I'll take the Committee Chair and former Committee member we've spoken to at their word that a quality 10-0 team will not be punished with the rotation of MUC into the Region's bracket.

The AD from Rowan is supposed to remove herself from the process when an NJAC team comes up.  At least this is how I was told the NCAA does it for basketball, I would think they would have the same requirement for football.

The NJAC does have a new blood or Rose Bowl rule, see the post from Fran Elia on the NJAC board outlining the NJAC tiebreakers.  Frank does have a good argument against some of them but they are what they are for now.

Historically, football only forces self-removal of a member if the specific team the member represents is up for discussion.  I've never heard of the conference rule, KS.  Maybe Pat has?

[Knightstalker]

TGP -

If Montclair finishes at 10-0, they will likely be the #1 seed.  Remember, the Chairwoman of the Selection Committee is the Athletics Director of an NJAC school (Rowan).  

SLU, if they win the LL, would be a #8 seed -- no doubts on that one.  Just because a team comes from Pool C doesn't mean they are a lesser team in seeding.  Seeding is done as a second procedure after selection.  SJFC would be toward a #4/#5 seed (obviously behind Alfred if they remain at those loss numbers of 1).  

Overall, I have two problems with your team selections.  First, SJFC and Rowan probably don't both get Pool C bids when things shake out -- the East getting two Pool C slots is going to be a challenge, especially when SoS shakes out (Rowan's remaining opponents have W/L of like 4-17 and will likely fall below SJFC).  Also, SUNY-Maritime still hasn't lost.  The assumption that Norwich wins is a bad assumption still until it happens.  

The only support I can give you related to placing MUC in the East is the idea that the geographic fit still makes sense in a lot of situations (including SLU).  However, I'll take the Committee Chair and former Committee member we've spoken to at their word that a quality 10-0 team will not be punished with the rotation of MUC into the Region's bracket.

The AD from Rowan is supposed to remove herself from the process when an NJAC team comes up.  At least this is how I was told the NCAA does it for basketball, I would think they would have the same requirement for football.

The NJAC does have a new blood or Rose Bowl rule, see the post from Fran Elia on the NJAC board outlining the NJAC tiebreakers.  Frank does have a good argument against some of them but they are what they are for now.

Historically, football only forces self-removal of a member if the specific team the member represents is up for discussion.  I've never heard of the conference rule, KS.  Maybe Pat has?

I got that information regarding the basketball selection process right from the horses mouth at a game a few years ago.  This was from a former member of the selection committee.

[labart96]

Pulled this from the General Board re Pool C.  Interesting that even if Rowan's SoS drops they could end up in a dead heat for one of the final Pool C bids.  That said, its looking like either Rowan or SJFC will be left out (among several other potentially 9-1 teams) this year:

I just listened to the ATN podcast and Pat and Keith do a nice job laying out the Pool C discussion as well as potential Regional Rankings (which will be released in version 1 this Wednesday). So it's time to get the discussion going.

According to Pat/Keith, the current possible Pool C teams in order (based on Strength of Schedule numbers) are:

Ohio Northern
Rowan
Wheaton (assume 9-1)
Coe
Redlands
St John Fisher
Bethel
Hardin Simmons
Pac Lutheran
Baldwin Wallace (in case they shock the world in week 10)
Central
Randolph Macon

What's distinctly possible this year (as opposed to years past) is that several 9-1 teams may not get into the playoffs. Heading that possible list would be North Central should they lose to Wheaton. NCC's SOS numbers are signifcantly below anyone on this list (which currently has more names than Pool C slots available). What's also worth mentioning is the fact that this list will likely both expand and contract each week as teams lose and drop off  and other undefeateds join this group.

[Pat Coleman]

I got that information regarding the basketball selection process right from the horses mouth at a game a few years ago.  This was from a former member of the selection committee.

That is not my understanding of the process. I am under the impression that Rowan's AD only must refrain from discussing Rowan.

[Frank Rossi]

My honest opinion of Rowan and SJF in the SoS numbers is that SJF will be slightly ahead of Rowan by the end of the season.  Now, granted, things can changed based on how their opponents do.  However, we do have a strange anomaly when it comes to Rowan and SJF:  two common opponents.

vs. Buffalo State:  Rowan +17, SJF +28

vs. Brockport State:  Rowan +8, SJF +43

Even if Rowan finishes a couple places ahead of SJF in SoS, this should normally create a counterpoint.  However, even if a Committee member must sit out on a phone call about selections of their own team, would the rest of the Committee REALLY not sway in the direction of that member?  Especially when it's the Committee Chair?  That would be hard for me to believe. 

Why is it important?  Again, the Selection Committee does not throw all Pool C candidates onto the table at once.  They rank each region's Pool C candidates with the help of the Regional Subcommittees.  Then, the top team from each of the 4 regions is compared before one is selected.  When that team is picked, the next team in that region rolls to the top of the list and the process is repeated until 6 teams are selected.  There is a definite advantage to being at the top of your region's list since there is a much better chance to be selected in six attempts than maybe as few as two or three attempts. 

This is something to watch over the next few weeks if things remain unchanged in the one-loss column.

[Knightstalker]

I got that information regarding the basketball selection process right from the horses mouth at a game a few years ago.  This was from a former member of the selection committee.

That is not my understanding of the process. I am under the impression that Rowan's AD only must refrain from discussing Rowan.

Then I guess a member of the basketball committee lied to me or holds himself to a higher standard.

But I also doubt that the Committee chair no matter what school they are from would favor one of their conf schools over others in the process and to even hint at it is unprofessional.

[Doid23]

Here's my prediction of how the East Region Rankings will look when they get released this week:

1) Montclair State
2) Delaware Valley
3) SUNY-Maritime
4) Alfred
5) Rowan
6) St. John Fisher
7) Western New England
8) Norwich
9) Cortland State
10) Maine Maritime

I think this proves exactly the point many are making. SUNY-Maritime has played a weak schedule, their signature win to date being by a touchdown over an average LL team, Merchant Marine (who got crushed by Springfield 64-0). Yet, since they are undefeated, the will be ranked over 1 loss Alfred, Rowan, SJF, Cortland State.

[K-Mack]

Hey,
looking for guidance on how to attack the ATN about the East Region. Not that I can't come up with angles myself, but that I want to ask the questions you guys want answered.

I see it as a two-pronged thing, about the No. 1 seed deal in the East potentially being four seasons running if Montclair State loses, and about the East Region's lack of success in the national semifinals the past decade (i.e. they're not even getting to Stagg Bowls, much less beating MUC or UWW when there)

Is there something to it? A proliferation of football schools spreading the talent around? Just a coincidence?

So as not to disrupt the discussion here, you can leave replies on the ATN board under General Football, but I'll also read this thread if you're lazy.

[clandfan]

I'll be lazy Keith...without researching it, I think it is awfully hard to advance out of this division when MUC always seems to end up in the East.  Its not really rocket science.  We have leagues that beat up on each other (NJAC and E8 for example) that it is hard to find an undefeated team.  The tops of our leagues are strong, the bottoms are weak.  It is hard to get out of any league without a loss but SOS suffers because of the bottome of the leagues and few OOC games.  So a 1 loss Montclair, Cortland, Rowan, SJF, Alfred, IC in any year won't get the top seed and may not make the playoffs and MUC will be imported.  I don't know how we fix it?

I'll speak for NJAC ... with 10 teams we can't fix it unless we reduce the league to increase more quality OOC games.  Buff St. is leaving...that may help.  We will see.

[Bombers798891]

Hey,
looking for guidance on how to attack the ATN about the East Region. Not that I can't come up with angles myself, but that I want to ask the questions you guys want answered.

I see it as a two-pronged thing, about the No. 1 seed deal in the East potentially being four seasons running if Montclair State loses, and about the East Region's lack of success in the national semifinals the past decade (i.e. they're not even getting to Stagg Bowls, much less beating MUC or UWW when there)

Is there something to it? A proliferation of football schools spreading the talent around? Just a coincidence?

So as not to disrupt the discussion here, you can leave replies on the ATN board under General Football, but I'll also read this thread if you're lazy.

I'd be interested to know how much the latter plays into the former. Are we caught in a vicious cycle of poor reputation leading to MUC leading to even poorer reputation?

[Ralph Turner]

When one is building brackets, the Pool A bids coming out of South Region conferences are DePauw (SCAC) and probably Thomas More (Pres AC).

That looks like a good geographic first round match up (either a 6v3 or a 5v4), but where do you put it?  South Bracket? North Bracket?

Does Wesley get a SUNY-Maritime for a first round game?

Does an undefeated SUNY-Maritime makes a stronger Pool B case than a 2-loss Salisbury.  Salisbury beating Wesley is a different matter.

I think that Pool B CWRU could be moved to the "East Bracket" if Montclair State is undefeated.

The initial Pool C list of teams does not have a South Region team in the first six listed!  That really pushes teams eastward from the West and North Regions.

[PBR...]

I'll be lazy Keith...without researching it, I think it is awfully hard to advance out of this division when MUC always seems to end up in the East.  Its not really rocket science.  We have leagues that beat up on each other (NJAC and E8 for example) that it is hard to find an undefeated team.  The tops of our leagues are strong, the bottoms are weak.  It is hard to get out of any league without a loss but SOS suffers because of the bottome of the leagues and few OOC games.  So a 1 loss Montclair, Cortland, Rowan, SJF, Alfred, IC in any year won't get the top seed and may not make the playoffs and MUC will be imported.  I don't know how we fix it?

I'll speak for NJAC ... with 10 teams we can't fix it unless we reduce the league to increase more quality OOC games.  Buff St. is leaving...that may help.  We will see.

its simple to fix...as pbr stated earlier...the selection committee really only looks at records...they give almost no consideration to strength of schedule/etc....so the DVC's/Montclair/SJF/Cortlands of the world need to schedule every easy cupcake they can schedule and come out 10-0 on the season. As discussed earlier on tgp/frank rossi's "in the huddle" their guest stated that if a undefeated team was in the east that MUC would not be shipped east. Forget playing good competition and interesting matchups, and making it easy for the selection committee to see who is a contender vs. pretender. Instead now you are going to have 8 teams that are 10-0 and a bunch at 9-1 vying for a the top seeds. Its a shame really the fans loose out w/ not seeing great matchups and the playoffs get a watered down product w/ massive blowouts in the first round 

[lewdogg11]

KMack......e8 board. Page 2575-2577. Check it.

[Frank Rossi]

KMack......e8 board. Page 2575-2577. Check it.

Let me summarize:

Alfred is better than SJF.

No, SJF is better than Alfred.

Rinse and repeat 800 times.  Bring aspirin.

[lewdogg11]

Incorrect Francis. This was the discussion on people in the Northeast not giving a crap about football.