East Region Playoff Discussion

[DanPadavona]

The argument so far today has been that the Del Valley loss is another example of all the problems in the East lately.  I would argue to the contrary. 

Consider that Wesley, considered one of the top 4 teams in the nation, barely defeated Del Valley.  Yet Del Valley lost to Widener, and wasn't strong enough to run the table in its own conference.  What that tells me is that there are multiple teams in the East who could give Wesley a game, Widener included.  Obviously not Kean today, but then Kean faded to a distant 5th in the NJAC behind TCNJ.  And I clearly remember Brockport shocking the nation by destroying Wesley by 40+ points a few seasons ago.  Would Wesley be the #1 team in the East if they were so aligned?  Clearly yes.  But the DV-Wesley game shows the top of the South region is not much better than the 3rd or 4th best team in the East Region.

This is akin to what Frank Rossi has eloquently argued:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=3800.1965

Like I've argued prior, when someone in the North beats Mounts Union during the regular season, they can talk plenty about the strength of their region.  But up to this point, the North hasn't accomplished anything the East has failed to do...take down MUC.  And the scores are comparable. 

[@d3jason]

Dan--
I want to take nothing away from the from a DVC program that I have nothing but respect for but Wesley turned the ball over six times that day and still won.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Dan--
I want to take nothing away from the from a DVC program that I have nothing but respect for but Wesley turned the ball over six times that day and still won.

Any assessment of how many were turnovers and how many were takeaways?

[HSCTiger74]

The argument so far today has been that the Del Valley loss is another example of all the problems in the East lately.  I would argue to the contrary. 

Consider that Wesley, considered one of the top 4 teams in the nation, barely defeated Del Valley. Yet Del Valley lost to Widener, and wasn't strong enough to run the table in its own conference.  What that tells me is that there are multiple teams in the East who could give Wesley a game, Widener included.   Obviously not Kean today, but then Kean faded to a distant 5th in the NJAC behind TCNJ.  And I clearly remember Brockport shocking the nation by destroying Wesley by 40+ points a few seasons ago.  Would Wesley be the #1 team in the East if they were so aligned?  Clearly yes.  But the DV-Wesley game shows the top of the South region is not much better than the 3rd or 4th best team in the East Region.

This is akin to what Frank Rossi has eloquently argued:

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=3800.1965

Like I've argued prior, when someone in the North beats Mounts Union during the regular season, they can talk plenty about the strength of their region.  But up to this point, the North hasn't accomplished anything the East has failed to do...take down MUC.  And the scores are comparable. 

What it tells me is that Del Valley had a bad day and Widener took advantage, nothing more. Given the unpredictability of sports I don't think that we can look at a single set of results and then extrapolate future results.   

[@d3jason]

agreed +1

[DanPadavona]

The NJAC has been settled.  Cortland wins the Pool A Selection via tiebreaker with a OOWP of 0.514.  Montclair had OOWP of 0.504, with Rowan at 0.502.   

Silly way to decide a playoff birth imo.  But at least we have Pool A settled now.  So, Rowan or Montclair as the Pool C?  Or Both?

[redswarm81]

I'm not convinced PG.  In the case of the NEFC, we had a track record of under performance in the NCAA playoffs to go on.^*  You don't give much respect to their champions because they tend to get clobbered in the playoffs.  Maritime and the ECFC have never been in this position, so we have no idea how good they are or aren't.

Here's my argument.  If a MAC team or NJAC/E8 team went undefeated, we'd claim them to be a bonafide #1, correct?  And would you be shocked if Maritime beat a MAC/NJAC/E8 team next week?  I wouldn't.  We just don't know how good they are.

No I don't believe that Maritime is the best team in our region.  But I have no proof that they aren't.

You're absolutely right.  It's by making exactly such arguments that I've managed to get forums shut down. 

The NCAA encourages regional competition, and even excludes (some, not all) inter-regional results from its selection criteria.  It's tough enough to gauge strength within a region, with no more than 9 or 10 data points per team, with usually all but one of those data points limited to within a single conference.

There is, for all practical purposes, zero relevant evidence for measuring relative strength of two undefeated teams in different regions.  Nonetheless, the Selection Committee seeds the number one teams across all regions.

Hey, they might be correct in their seedings.  There's just no evidence to support those seedings.

^*I'd point out that poor performance in last year's NCAA tournament--against different teams than those who are playing in this year's NCAA tournament--is not evidence of any team's strength, but I'd be accused of nitpicking.

[labart96]

Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. 

For the second year in a row, we'll have Dr. Joy Solomen, Chair of the tournament selection committee on ITH tomorrow night - shows starts at 7:30 PM ET. 

Please post your questions here once the selections have been made so we can work them into our interview accordingly (we'll have plenty of our own, but always open to input).

You can tune into ITH - www.inthehuddLLe.com - to hear the interview with Dr. Solomen as well as catch a live reading of the ECAC match ups as we expect to get those around 8:00-30 PM ET and plan to announce them live on the show. 

[Frank Rossi]

My honest feeling, even after pointing out the Wabash strength earlier in the week in here, is that either Rowan and Montclair BOTH go, or neither go.  My feeling is that they both go, saving the Committee the job of explaining why Rowan would be picked ahead of Montclair. 

That said, I would rather see Montclair and Wabash go.  Wabash earned it and played a pretty good schedule all season long.  It will be interesting, since the question is, "Is Wabash a one-loss or two-loss team in the assessment?"  Primary criteria say they're a one-loss team that has one of the best SoS's on the board.  They are distinguishable, have two quality regional wins and win most comparisons.  If that's the case -- and read this carefully -- THE COMMITTEE IS OBLIGATED TO HONOR PRIMARY CRITERIA ONLY.  They should not need to open it up to secondary criteria for Wabash.

This actually poses a major test for the Committee's idea from the past couple years that they pretty much have just thrown in both batches of criteria immediately.  Here's a case in which it shouldn't be happening.  Hopefully, the Committee has done the right thing.  As for Montclair, the H2H is too much for me to ignore.  It's a shell game if a double-digit H2H victory when a direct comparison is made between two teams isn't honored. 

Pat said it best in the final sentence of his selection blog -- there's a difference between what may be on the board on ESPNews today and what SHOULD be there. 

[JT]

However...The overwhelming evidence to me is that West Conn fans have been telling Pat for years that their team is going to Salem.  And every year Pat goes to Salem and waits for West Conn to arrive. 

This season Maritime beat West Conn.  'Nuff said.   

West Conn fell off the cliff the past couple years, I guess they aren't getting the players that they used to.

[rams1102]

I got up around 2:30AM and before roplling back over, I went down stairs checked D3 and read the 2nd projections. Decided not to post, slept on it, still kept thinking and now I'm back on the computer. Here we go :

Congrats to Cortland as NJAC Champs. The double monkey stomping of De Pauw by Wabash to me would justify them a Pool C even they are 8-2.  Now down to the so called proposed Rowan pick as a Pool C.  The stregnth of Schedule as determined by the NCAA,  Montclair .493, Rowan .500, Westfield .518, and Lycoming .523. Not much of a difference. Montclair beats Rowan 26-7. The NCAA can pipe as much smoke up my arse as they want but if they pick Rowan as a Pool C instead of Montclair it is nothink but politics and they can spin it any way they want. Oh, by the way is not the AD of Rowan the head of the NCAA Selection Committee.  Again if Rowan is in and Montclair is out, this will be a big black for the NCAA, but I guess they probably don't care anyway.

[clandfan]

[/quote]

What it tells me is that Del Valley had a bad day and Widener took advantage, nothing more. Given the unpredictability of sports I don't think that we can look at a single set of results and then extrapolate future results.   
[/quote]

While this may be true...every single 1 loss team out there will tell you they had a bad day.  I know Cortland did.  In fact they had a bad half.

Not sure if you are suggesting that DelVal still be considered the #1 team in the east or what.  Del Val's problem is that they had two bad days; if you consider losses bad days.

[pg04]

In response to Rams, see my response on the NJAC board.  I wish you wouldn't post things twice...

[clandfan]

I got up around 2:30AM and before roplling back over, I went down stairs checked D3 and read the 2nd projections. Decided not to post, slept on it, still kept thinking and now I'm back on the computer. Here we go :

Congrats to Cortland as NJAC Champs. The double monkey stomping of De Pauw by Wabash to me would justify them a Pool C even they are 8-2.  Now down to the so called proposed Rowan pick as a Pool C.  The stregnth of Schedule as determined by the NCAA,  Montclair .493, Rowan .500, Westfield .518, and Lycoming .523. Not much of a difference. Montclair beats Rowan 26-7. The NCAA can pipe as much smoke up my arse as they want but if they pick Rowan as a Pool C instead of Montclair it is nothink but politics and they can spin it any way they want. Oh, by the way is not the AD of Rowan the head of the NCAA Selection Committee.  Again if Rowan is in and Montclair is out, this will be a big black for the NCAA, but I guess they probably don't care anyway.

I've seen both.  Montclair is better.  Sorry I don't have a vote.

[rams1102]

In response to Rams, see my response on the NJAC board.  I wish you wouldn't post things twice...

Sorry, but I'm really pissed and want to make sure everyone see's it.