East Region Playoff Discussion

[dlippiel]

NostraLD's 'East' Region(and a few others that i'm interested in) Predictions for this week:

Mount Union - 64
St. Lawrence - 0
(I tried giving St. Lawrence points here, I really did!)

Delaware Valley - 31
Salisbury - 17

Cortland St. - 45
Endicott - 10

Alfred - 24
SUNY-Maritime - 6

'South'

Hampden-Sydney - 10
Montclair St. - 6

ECAC

St. John Fisher - 24
RPI - 10

Springfield - 56
Mt. Ida - 12

dlip will give this a go with the Dawg!!!


Mount Union - 62
St. Lawrence - 3 (Have to do this but dlip really does not see them scoring)


Delaware Valley - 14
Salisbury - 35

Cortland St. - 17
Endicott - 3

Alfred - 28
SUNY-Maritime - 24

'South'

Hampden-Sydney - 17
Montclair St. - 7

ECAC

St. John Fisher - 24
RPI - 27

Springfield - 64
Mt. Ida - 14

Good chunk of games here Lew and dlip is with you on most. dlip thinks RPI has a lot more to play for here and King is going to get this team fired up and ready to go. SJF on the other hand comes in IMHO quite disappointed and feeling like they have completely underachieved...which they have.

Springfield, dlip believes, is a clear NCAA calibur team in 2010 and will prove this by ****ing homogonizing (that's for you RS you ****ing tool) IDA.

Alfred won't allow another slip up, especially here in the tourney at home and will be all buisness. The end result will be close but still going the Saxons way.

MSU will not be able to hang with H/S, they just won't be able to put up enough points to really challenge (dlip hopes he is wrong here).

After watching Picher last week dlip feels Cortland will have to rely on Autera and it's D. This may take them past round one but that might just be it.

dlip's big call is the Salisbury game. Del Val was a HUGE let down last week, for all of us, and will not be able to handle the Gulls who played Wesley even better than they did. Salisbury's athleticism runs all over.

SLU vs MUC...well... dlip just congratulates SLU on making the NCAA's and hopes this year is a start for even better things to come. Go SLU!

[lewdogg11]

RPI beating SJF would greatly show how ridiculous the losses to St. Lawrence, Utica, and WPI were.  Obviously i'm pulling for RPI, but if they DO win, everything i've been feeling for 4-5 years is 100% true and that they need a change of some sort to get to that next level, because I'm pretty sure they are getting the talent, and are talented enough to beat just about anyone, but they seem handicapped and can't get over some hurdle and continually stumble in the league year in and year out.

If Fisher roughs them up, then it's obvious that the LL was WAY down and none of the teams were really that good this year.

[Bombers798891]

NostraLD's 'East' Region(and a few others that i'm interested in) Predictions for this week:

Mount Union - 64
St. Lawrence - 0
(I tried giving St. Lawrence points here, I really did!)

Yeah, I'm very worried about the SLU game turning into Wisconsin/Indiana minus the 20 points for Indiana. I know MUC usually gets a pretty weak team in the first round, and it's not like 56-0 or some of their previous games in the playoffs haven't been a blowout, but I worry about this game creeping up into the 70's/80's. I'm not saying MUC is going to run up the score, because they won't, but sometimes, even when you empty the bench, there's only so much you can do.

Tough break for St. Lawrence, but good on them for making the playoffs. Give 'em all you got.

I'm going to take MUC/UW-W in the finals because, well, after five seasons, I'm not going to believe in someone else until they prove it

You can always run out at the 1, take three knees and kick a field goal once you're up 50.

Yeah, I know Kehres will call off the dogs. But an 18-year old kid may not think about that during a play. I also wonder, how do you balance respect with patronization?

This is probably an overblown concern and the game will wind up 45-3, but sometimes, you get that match-up and say "uh-oh"

[Kira & Jaxon's Dad]

NostraLD's 'East' Region(and a few others that i'm interested in) Predictions for this week:

Mount Union - 64
St. Lawrence - 0
(I tried giving St. Lawrence points here, I really did!)

Yeah, I'm very worried about the SLU game turning into Wisconsin/Indiana minus the 20 points for Indiana. I know MUC usually gets a pretty weak team in the first round, and it's not like 56-0 or some of their previous games in the playoffs haven't been a blowout, but I worry about this game creeping up into the 70's/80's. I'm not saying MUC is going to run up the score, because they won't, but sometimes, even when you empty the bench, there's only so much you can do.

Tough break for St. Lawrence, but good on them for making the playoffs. Give 'em all you got.

I'm going to take MUC/UW-W in the finals because, well, after five seasons, I'm not going to believe in someone else until they prove it

You can always run out at the 1, take three knees and kick a field goal once you're up 50.

I went Whitewater-Wesley in the final, buying into all the Mount Union anti-hype.

If they win out, UW-W will face Wesley in the National Semifinals.  On the other side the #1 seeds are Mount Union and St. Thomas.

[AUKaz00]

If they win out, UW-W will face Wesley in the National Semifinals.  On the other side the #1 seeds are Mount Union and St. Thomas.

Good catch.  Didn't bother logging back into the D3photography pick'em, but I had UWW over St. Thomas.  Mea Culpa.

[DVCFan11]

Mount Union - 66
St. Lawrence - 6
-- Like everyone else i really am having trouble thinking they will score a single pt against MTU but i had to give them at least one score for the seniors

Delaware Valley - 27
Salisbury - 21 
-- i am VERY worried about a hangover from the Widener game here. If Salisbury gets ahead early might have a mental effect for the Aggies. But with the history between them i think DVC pulls it out

Cortland St. - 28
Endicott - 14

Alfred - 27
SUNY-Maritime - 35

'South'

Hampden-Sydney - 24
Montclair St. - 7

Now be gentle with my picks, i am a newbie here on the boards haha. i have Mt Union against Wesley in the final with Mt Union winning it in a close game. (although i would love to see another team upset them at some point in this braket)

[labart96]

MU is "only" averaging 40.6 ppg and has allowed an average of 13.1 ppg (but with 4 shutouts).  I don't think SLU will be shut out, especially since the Larries do have a pretty good kicker.

Matt Dodge went 6 for 7 with a long of 47 yards - only miss was a 41 yarder vs. Hobart, so if SLU advances the ball near the MU 20-30 yd lines, they can probably come away with at least 3.

That said, the difference will probably be the passing game due to players like Shorts (probably the best player in all of DIII and a legitimate NFL prospect).  SLU's pass defense allows nearly 200 YPG has been bailed out in the past by making opportunistic picks (sometimes due to bad throws by the opposing QBs).  Given MU's QB has a ~70% accuracy that probably won't happen.

[dlippiel]

Alfred - 27
SUNY-Maritime - 35

Interesting pick and one that could happen. Yet, Alfreds losses to U of R and RPI don't seem as bad considering both RPI and AU finished the year strong and dlip dosen't really think the Saxons will let this one slide. Overall dlip thinks there is quite a difference between Alfred and Maritime talent wise, but you never know. ****, ****ing Norwich defeated SLU who won the damn LL with a 5-5 record. Crazier things could/have happened besides Maritime pulling this one out.

[HScoach]

Alfred - 27
SUNY-Maritime - 35

Interesting pick and one that could happen. Yet, Alfreds losses to U of R and RPI don't seem as bad considering both RPI and AU finished the year strong and dlip dosen't really think the Saxons will let this one slide. Overall dlip thinks there is quite a difference between Alfred and Maritime talent wise, but you never know. ****, ****ing Norwich defeated SLU who won the damn LL with a 5-5 record. Crazier things could/have happened besides Maritime pulling this one out.

That was one of the harder games to set a spread on since Alfred has been so wildly inconsistent.

[AUSaxons]

Mount Union - 70
St. Lawrence - 0
-Like everyone else, can't see SLU scoring in this one. I think it will be something like 49-0 at halftime and MUC calls off the dogs in a big way

Delaware Valley - 27
Salisbury - 13
-Solid win for Del Valley, not extremely impressive but I think they beat Salisbury comfortably

Cortland St. - 20
Endicott - 14
-I believe after seeing an Ithaca team that got dominated by Alfred play cortland to the final whistle, Cortland is very overrated. I see them beating Endicott, but barely in a hard fought game.

Alfred - 38
SUNY-Maritime - 14
-Okay, so my bias is showing a little bit here, but I dont think Maritime can stop the AU offense. There is so much offensive balance only a team with a ton of defensive talent could stop them when they're on (and believe me, they are taking this game with 100% seriousness, they will be ready). But, more to the point, the maritime triple option offense is tailor made for AU to stop it. There was no other team that held Springfield in the way AU did, and their run D has been their biggest strength all year. I see a blowout

'South'

Hampden-Sydney - 21
Montclair St. - 10

[Doid23]

You can always run out at the 1, take three knees and kick a field goal once you're up 50.

Yeah, I know Kehres will call off the dogs. But an 18-year old kid may not think about that during a play. I also wonder, how do you balance respect with patronization?

Bingo. I'd rather someone score a touchdown on me to go up 55-7, then stop at the 1, take a knee, and kick a field goal. That's pity, not respect.

My barometer for running up the score is personnel and playcalling. If you're up 50 in the fourth, and have the third team in running fullback dives, and your defense is playing a vanilla base D and not blitzing, then that is all that an opponent can ask.

[HScoach]

You can always run out at the 1, take three knees and kick a field goal once you're up 50.

Yeah, I know Kehres will call off the dogs. But an 18-year old kid may not think about that during a play. I also wonder, how do you balance respect with patronization?

Bingo. I'd rather someone score a touchdown on me to go up 55-7, then stop at the 1, take a knee, and kick a field goal. That's pity, not respect.

My barometer for running up the score is personnel and playcalling. If you're up 50 in the fourth, and have the third team in running fullback dives, and your defense is playing a vanilla base D and not blitzing, then that is all that an opponent can ask.

If I hadn't been following Mount for 20+ years I would agree completely with your statement above, but there have been games (Wilmington usually) where Mount's back-ups to the back-up would still be scoring at will even on the most basic of plays.  I don't know the East well enough to pick out a comparable team, but take your most consistently BAD east region team that is completely devoid of talent and effort and that's Wilmington.  Now put them on the same field with one of Mount's better teams (ala Kmic & Micheli a few years ago) and the games get ugly quick.    If the 2nd and 3rd teams were allowed to play all out, Mount could have approach 100 points against Wilmington a few times.

The usual way to keep from scoring is for the RB to run out of bounds, or run into a defender and fall down, inside the 20 yard line.  They then run 3 dives into the line where the RB isn't actually trying to gain yards.  Just simply running clock and finding someone to knock him down.  Then either kick the FG or do the same thing on 4th down to turn the ball back over.

I can't remember the year or who the RB was, but he was a senior that had never stepped on the varsity field before and got few carries at the end of a game in scrub time.  Anyway, he breaks a 50+ yard run and has clear sailing to the end zone for his first and only TD of his college career when he takes a 90 degree turn at the 5 and runs out of bounds.  It was pretty sad on a couple counts:
1.   It cost him his only shot at scoring a TD in 4 years of college.
2.  He wasn't well versed on not making it look obvious


What still amazes me about D3 is the wide range of talent between the very top and very bottom.  I realize we have twice as many teams as D1 does, but there is a much bigger divide between the top 10% teams versus the bottom 10% of teams in D3. 

[dlippiel]

Cortland is very overrated. I see them beating Endicott, but barely in a hard fought game.

So true

[lewdogg11]

Cortland is very overrated. I see them beating Endicott, but barely in a hard fought game.

So true

I don't drink this Kool-Aid at this point.  What can we judge this on?  They lost a nailbiter to Rowan and took care of everyone else on their schedule.  They had a big comeback against a huge rival(not to mention a fairly good team) to finish the season.  I think this year Cortland could surprise a few people.

[Stlarry]

Mount Union - 49
St. Lawrence - 10
-HOMER ALERT-
I think SLU kicks a FG in the first half and the game is surprisingly close (as in 27-3) at halftime.

Delaware Valley - 28
Salisbury - 17


Cortland St. - 24
Endicott - 10


Alfred - 42
SUNY-Maritime - 7


'South'

Hampden-Sydney - 24
Montclair St. - 10