East Region Playoff Discussion

[pg04]

If I had to venture an educated guess, MTU is really really good and will roll their quadrant and perhaps finally get challenged in the semifinals.

[thewaterboy]

If I had to venture an educated guess, MTU is really really good and will roll their quadrant and perhaps finally get challenged in the semifinals.

I'd argue a potential challenge in the quarterfinals.

[jknezek]

If I had to venture an educated guess, MTU is really really good and will roll their quadrant and perhaps finally get challenged in the semifinals.

Yeah. I don't doubt that either. They may not give up a TD in the first two rounds. But I also don't think the OAC put up a single top 25 type challenge and UMU's numbers probably reflect that even more than usual.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

If I had to venture an educated guess, MTU is really really good and will roll their quadrant and perhaps finally get challenged in the semifinals.

I'd argue they have had some good challenges in the semifinals the last few years. One of the games went down to the very last second and last possession (two years ago? North Central? Trying to do this off the top of my head.).

[Dr. Acula]

You are correct!  2013 North Central was won on a last minute drive in a blizzard.

[pg04]

Yep, I do think the deserving winner of UWO, UWW, and Wheaton will be the first to really scare them, and perhaps even beat them.

[wesleydad]

I can see that argument. However, this Mount D is really good. The OAC was down a bit (IMHO) but teams like BW and JCU did get a lot better as the year went on. I know JCU was breaking in a new QB. Regardless - you could also say that Mounts D is that good - and that the backups are really good too. They only gave up 3 TDs to starting offenses.

You could look at it that way until you realize BW lost to Blufton and still managed to beat ONU who beat JCU. Daisy chains are lazy analysis, but with only one OOC it's all you got. Otherwise all we have to compare is JCU beat a very mediocre St. Vincent and ONU beat a very mediocre Utica. Essentially there is no quality OOC win among the top of the OAC, and one very mediocre loss in the bunch. I mean UMU beat Bethany pretty much the same way they beat everyone else in the OAC, and we know about where Bethany lands in the grand scheme of things thanks to their PAC schedule.

What is more likely? All these teams UMU beat the same way are good regardless of the few underwhelming outside data points we have, or all these teams are pretty mediocre this year and UMU just steamrolled a whole schedule of essentially 75-175th best teams in DIII and the playoff committee randomly put one in the field because they got tired of seeing them on the table round after round?

I was thinking the same thing, just could not have said it as well.  Mount's D may be really, really good but the competition does not look very strong on paper.  When you add that the second string D seems to be as dominant against other teams ones then you are looking at over matched teams.  As usual you never know because Mount is seldom challenged in the regular season and sometimes not until the Stagg.  I hope that Wesley can represent better than they did last year and if not them than Hopkins can show better than they did the last time they played Mount.

[PA_wesleyfan]

If Wesley could get by that first 8 or so minutes in one of these marquee games maybe they could challenge the Purple Powers.  I know Wesley may not be as deep this year . Only time will tell

[pg04]

Off topic, I've learned posters "smite" more in other regions. Whenever I decide to post elsewhere it's like a minefield 

[bman]

Off topic, I've learned posters "smite" more in other regions. Whenever I decide to post elsewhere it's like a minefield 

The MIAC is a great board with good guys...
I always take a few hits if I post anything on the Wisconsin board...

[HScoach]

Not to rain on any parades etc...but the 34 Mount gave up is misleading. 7 to ONU was with 14 seconds left in a 51-0 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd. The 2 TDs to Berg were also late in 4th of a 59-3 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd quarter. The Mount starters gave up 1 TD (Capital) and 2 FGs (1 to Berg and 1 to JCU after JCU took over at Mounts 25 yard line on a bad punt). So really its more like 13 pts.

Based on you assessment, you guys didn't face any competition all year.

I can see that argument. However, this Mount D is really good. The OAC was down a bit (IMHO) but teams like BW and JCU did get a lot better as the year went on. I know JCU was breaking in a new QB. Regardless - you could also say that Mounts D is that good - and that the backups are really good too. They only gave up 3 TDs to starting offenses.

The OAC was way, WAY down this year offensively.    The Mount D is very good, but they weren't even remotely tested.   BW is their usual self by playing hard, but no playmakers.  JCU was solid, but no QB.  ONU has the makings of a good team in a couple yeras, hut they're young.  Rest of the OAC is horrid.

Offensively Mount is explosive, but inconsistent.    Much like the better MHB teams.  Crazy athletic at QB, but not consistently able to throw into tight windows on 3rd and 8 when you really need it.  Think "D3 version of Braxton Miller".

[wesleydad]

Not to rain on any parades etc...but the 34 Mount gave up is misleading. 7 to ONU was with 14 seconds left in a 51-0 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd. The 2 TDs to Berg were also late in 4th of a 59-3 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd quarter. The Mount starters gave up 1 TD (Capital) and 2 FGs (1 to Berg and 1 to JCU after JCU took over at Mounts 25 yard line on a bad punt). So really its more like 13 pts.

Based on you assessment, you guys didn't face any competition all year.

I can see that argument. However, this Mount D is really good. The OAC was down a bit (IMHO) but teams like BW and JCU did get a lot better as the year went on. I know JCU was breaking in a new QB. Regardless - you could also say that Mounts D is that good - and that the backups are really good too. They only gave up 3 TDs to starting offenses.

The OAC was way, WAY down this year offensively.    The Mount D is very good, but they weren't even remotely tested.   BW is their usual self by playing hard, but no playmakers.  JCU was solid, but no QB.  ONU has the makings of a good team in a couple yeras, hut they're young.  Rest of the OAC is horrid.

Offensively Mount is explosive, but inconsistent.    Much like the better MHB teams.  Crazy athletic at QB, but not consistently able to throw into tight windows on 3rd and 8 when you really need it.  Think "D3 version of Braxton Miller".

Coach, good to hear from you.  Hope all is well with you and the family.  I always like to hear you view on things since you always seem to have a way of putting a proper prospective on it.  Maybe I will be seeing you in a few weeks.

[Dr. Acula]

Not to rain on any parades etc...but the 34 Mount gave up is misleading. 7 to ONU was with 14 seconds left in a 51-0 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd. The 2 TDs to Berg were also late in 4th of a 59-3 game. The backups played all of 4th and most of 3rd quarter. The Mount starters gave up 1 TD (Capital) and 2 FGs (1 to Berg and 1 to JCU after JCU took over at Mounts 25 yard line on a bad punt). So really its more like 13 pts.

Based on you assessment, you guys didn't face any competition all year.

I can see that argument. However, this Mount D is really good. The OAC was down a bit (IMHO) but teams like BW and JCU did get a lot better as the year went on. I know JCU was breaking in a new QB. Regardless - you could also say that Mounts D is that good - and that the backups are really good too. They only gave up 3 TDs to starting offenses.

The OAC was way, WAY down this year offensively.    The Mount D is very good, but they weren't even remotely tested.   BW is their usual self by playing hard, but no playmakers.  JCU was solid, but no QB.  ONU has the makings of a good team in a couple yeras, hut they're young.  Rest of the OAC is horrid.

Offensively Mount is explosive, but inconsistent.    Much like the better MHB teams.  Crazy athletic at QB, but not consistently able to throw into tight windows on 3rd and 8 when you really need it.  Think "D3 version of Braxton Miller".

To be fair he's thrown really well the last 5 games.  Of course he's missed on some throws, but his worst accuracy is 20-30 in that time and he's 20:1 TD to INT.  He's not Kevin Burke, but he's also not LiDarral Bailey IMO.  Scott has much more arm talent than Bailey.  Whether he can sit back and drill in the 3rd down pass against tight coverage is the million dollar question.

[Bombers798891]

I love your optimism!! However, Look at the scores of the games MTU has played this year:

Not to be the pessimistic one again, but They have allowed 34 points over 10 games. 34!!! If St. Lawrence scores more than 3, I would consider the game an upset.

That's 10 more than they had allowed in 2007, and Ithaca then went out and put up 18. Stranger things, as they say

[pg04]

Could be! I'm a little worried about St. Lawrence's propensity for mistake shown in the game with MMA which may doom them early.