East Region Playoff Discussion

[Desertraider]

I love your optimism!! However, Look at the scores of the games MTU has played this year:

Not to be the pessimistic one again, but They have allowed 34 points over 10 games. 34!!! If St. Lawrence scores more than 3, I would consider the game an upset.

That's 10 more than they had allowed in 2007, and Ithaca then went out and put up 18. Stranger things, as they say

If Ithaca puts 18 on the board against Mount on Saturday - I will eat my hat  . The big difference in Mounts D recently is VK calling the shots. The D is much more aggressive under VK.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I love your optimism!! However, Look at the scores of the games MTU has played this year:

Not to be the pessimistic one again, but They have allowed 34 points over 10 games. 34!!! If St. Lawrence scores more than 3, I would consider the game an upset.

That's 10 more than they had allowed in 2007, and Ithaca then went out and put up 18. Stranger things, as they say

If Ithaca puts 18 on the board against Mount on Saturday - I will eat my hat  . The big difference in Mounts D recently is VK calling the shots. The D is much more aggressive under VK.

If Ithaca puts anything on the board Saturday, we've got a problem.

Then again you could probably put Ithaca and SLU's offense on the field (at the same time) against the Mount defense, with two balls, and I'm not sure either would score.

[NED3Guy]

All I could think of as I followed live stats today was that in two years there will be another New England conference AQ in the tournament.

[ITH radio]

Posted this on Pool C board but thought I'd throw it out here too. Did this w/o consulting Frank (who knows playoff selection criteria way better than I do). The below is just a hunch and the fact we've seen ERR that have teams from NE represented even though it obvious they probably would lose H2H to say a 6-2 Wesley, for example. Anyway...:

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

[wesleydad]

Posted this on Pool C board but thought I'd throw it out here too. Did this w/o consulting Frank (who knows playoff selection criteria way better than I do). The below is just a hunch and the fact we've seen ERR that have teams from NE represented even though it obvious they probably would lose H2H to say a 6-2 Wesley, for example. Anyway...:

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

Like it. Makes sense to me.  The east is going to have slim pickings for pool c if things play out with Wesley winning the AQ for NJAC by beating Salisbury, Salisbury beats Frostburg so both have 2 loses, Alfred wins E8 giving Fisher 2 loses, Salve or WNEW would be the best 1 loss team in the east.  If that is the case I could see the east not get any pool c picks with some much stronger teams around the country.

[wally_wabash]

Posted this on Pool C board but thought I'd throw it out here too. Did this w/o consulting Frank (who knows playoff selection criteria way better than I do). The below is just a hunch and the fact we've seen ERR that have teams from NE represented even though it obvious they probably would lose H2H to say a 6-2 Wesley, for example. Anyway...:

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

Like it. Makes sense to me.  The east is going to have slim pickings for pool c if things play out with Wesley winning the AQ for NJAC by beating Salisbury, Salisbury beats Frostburg so both have 2 loses, Alfred wins E8 giving Fisher 2 loses, Salve or WNEW would be the best 1 loss team in the east.  If that is the case I could see the east not get any pool c picks with some much stronger teams around the country.

In your scenario, I really don't think the East RAC would rank the 1-loss NEFC runner up ahead of any of those two loss teams, but especially SJF.  If the last two weeks play out as you've described, I think SJF is the top ranked at-large team in this region and if that's the case, they're going in.  I don't think they'd sit there for six rounds without winning the vote eventually. 

[AUKaz00]

Posted this on Pool C board but thought I'd throw it out here too. Did this w/o consulting Frank (who knows playoff selection criteria way better than I do). The below is just a hunch and the fact we've seen ERR that have teams from NE represented even though it obvious they probably would lose H2H to say a 6-2 Wesley, for example. Anyway...:

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

Like it. Makes sense to me.  The east is going to have slim pickings for pool c if things play out with Wesley winning the AQ for NJAC by beating Salisbury, Salisbury beats Frostburg so both have 2 loses, Alfred wins E8 giving Fisher 2 loses, Salve or WNEW would be the best 1 loss team in the east.  If that is the case I could see the east not get any pool c picks with some much stronger teams around the country.

In your scenario, I really don't think the East RAC would rank the 1-loss NEFC runner up ahead of any of those two loss teams, but especially SJF.  If the last two weeks play out as you've described, I think SJF is the top ranked at-large team in this region and if that's the case, they're going in.  I don't think they'd sit there for six rounds without winning the vote eventually.

I was thinking that possibility, especially since Olivet should provide another RRO.  And does that game count as "regional" due to proximity?  I always wonder whether a team's record will look wonky on the RR because of those OOC games.

[wally_wabash]

Posted this on Pool C board but thought I'd throw it out here too. Did this w/o consulting Frank (who knows playoff selection criteria way better than I do). The below is just a hunch and the fact we've seen ERR that have teams from NE represented even though it obvious they probably would lose H2H to say a 6-2 Wesley, for example. Anyway...:

Should be interesting to see what comes out on Weds. My guess for ER would be something like this:

1. Alfred (highest SOS of 8-0 teams, arguably best conf, etc)
2. Stevenson 8-0 (better SOS than SLU)
3. SLU 8-0 (could see them lower bc of bad SOS but usually comm rewards 8-0 league leaders from the "top 4"
4. SJFC 7-1 (best SOS of 1 loss ER teams)
5. Hobart 7-1 (bc of high SOS)
6. Salisbury 7-1
7. Frostburg 7-1 (w. solid SOS of 115)
8. WNE 8-0 (maybe crazy bc of low SOS but have seen undefeated teams from NE get in Wk 10)
9. Salve 8-0 (see above)
10. Husson 6-1 (low SOS but only 7 point loss to #1 ALF gets them on board IMO)

Ironically only really two teams on this list has a Pool C shot (SLU, if the lose to HOB and beat WPI in Wk 11 to go 9-1 and ALF if they lose to SJF and end up 9-1 - even in that scenario, I could see SLU being left out bc of SOS).

Like it. Makes sense to me.  The east is going to have slim pickings for pool c if things play out with Wesley winning the AQ for NJAC by beating Salisbury, Salisbury beats Frostburg so both have 2 loses, Alfred wins E8 giving Fisher 2 loses, Salve or WNEW would be the best 1 loss team in the east.  If that is the case I could see the east not get any pool c picks with some much stronger teams around the country.

In your scenario, I really don't think the East RAC would rank the 1-loss NEFC runner up ahead of any of those two loss teams, but especially SJF.  If the last two weeks play out as you've described, I think SJF is the top ranked at-large team in this region and if that's the case, they're going in.  I don't think they'd sit there for six rounds without winning the vote eventually.

I was thinking that possibility, especially since Olivet should provide another RRO.  And does that game count as "regional" due to proximity?  I always wonder whether a team's record will look wonky on the RR because of those OOC games.

I believe all D3 games count as in-region as long as 3/4 of a team's games are regional by definition (so within 200 miles OR in the same geographic region OR in the same administrative region).  They've made it so that it's actually super hard to not have a game count as in-region, which is good.  We don't have so few data points in football as is that we don't need to go throwing out results because of arbitrary regional boundaries. 

[HansenRatings]

I believe all D3 games count as in-region as long as 3/4 of a team's games are regional by definition (so within 200 miles OR in the same geographic region OR in the same administrative region).  They've made it so that it's actually super hard to not have a game count as in-region, which is good.  We don't have so few data points in football as is that we don't need to go throwing out results because of arbitrary regional boundaries.

I think it's actually that team's are only eligible for post-season competition as long as they have 70% of their games against regional opponents, and all DIII teams are considered "regional opponents" for football.

[Pat Coleman]

I believe all D3 games count as in-region as long as 3/4 of a team's games are regional by definition (so within 200 miles OR in the same geographic region OR in the same administrative region).  They've made it so that it's actually super hard to not have a game count as in-region, which is good.  We don't have so few data points in football as is that we don't need to go throwing out results because of arbitrary regional boundaries.

I think it's actually that team's are only eligible for post-season competition as long as they have 70% of their games against regional opponents, and all DIII teams are considered "regional opponents" for football.

No, Wally is correct. As long as 70% of your games are vs. games that are in your region, then you can have all of your games vs. D-III opponents count as regional games. Or you can get a waiver. In any case, it's really rare that you don't meet that threshold.

[D3MAFAN]

I believe all D3 games count as in-region as long as 3/4 of a team's games are regional by definition (so within 200 miles OR in the same geographic region OR in the same administrative region).  They've made it so that it's actually super hard to not have a game count as in-region, which is good.  We don't have so few data points in football as is that we don't need to go throwing out results because of arbitrary regional boundaries.

I think it's actually that team's are only eligible for post-season competition as long as they have 70% of their games against regional opponents, and all DIII teams are considered "regional opponents" for football.

No, Wally is correct. As long as 70% of your games are vs. games that are in your region, then you can have all of your games vs. D-III opponents count as regional games. Or you can get a waiver. In any case, it's really rare that you don't meet that threshold.

Pat, what rare occasion has a team not met that percentage and had to obtain a waiver? 

[Pat Coleman]

I believe all D3 games count as in-region as long as 3/4 of a team's games are regional by definition (so within 200 miles OR in the same geographic region OR in the same administrative region).  They've made it so that it's actually super hard to not have a game count as in-region, which is good.  We don't have so few data points in football as is that we don't need to go throwing out results because of arbitrary regional boundaries.

I think it's actually that team's are only eligible for post-season competition as long as they have 70% of their games against regional opponents, and all DIII teams are considered "regional opponents" for football.

No, Wally is correct. As long as 70% of your games are vs. games that are in your region, then you can have all of your games vs. D-III opponents count as regional games. Or you can get a waiver. In any case, it's really rare that you don't meet that threshold.

Pat, what rare occasion has a team not met that percentage and had to obtain a waiver?

Oh, well, any Wesley team pre-NJAC comes immediately to mind. Currently our indepdents would need to do that as well.

[ITH radio]

I agree that even if Fisher ends up 8-2 they'll be in consideration. We learned from our interview last season with Director McKieran that RPI (who went 8-2) was basically on the board for at least a couple of rounds and just missed the cut late.

Also wouldn't be the first time an 8-2 Fisher squad got in when they didn't have a 9-1 record like some other teams from other regions bc of their SOS numbers.

[wally_wabash]

Wesley pre-NJAC.  I feel like that statement is more applicable in basketball (and other sports maybe) than it is in football.  I know sometimes the MIAA hoops teams load up their non-league schedules with nearby NAIAs and wind up with a limited number of D3 opponents.  One thing to keep in mind with selection/seeding criteria is that the NCAA likes uniformity across all of their championships, so the selection criteria is the same from sport to sport.  What you wind up with is a set of criteria that sort of works ok for all of the sports, but is ideal for none of the sports.  I think it's ok to acknowledge that the different sports ought to have different criteria catered to each specific sport, but the NCAA hasn't asked for my opinion.   

[HansenRatings]

The manual says "to be eligible for selection," and then the primary criteria says that all DIII games are considered.