East Region Playoff Discussion

[Pat Coleman]

I kind of think you're trying to parse two similar phrasings of the same thing, but hey, have fun.

[Upstate]

I agree that even if Fisher ends up 8-2 they'll be in consideration. We learned from our interview last season with Director McKieran that RPI (who went 8-2) was basically on the board for at least a couple of rounds and just missed the cut late.

Also wouldn't be the first time an 8-2 Fisher squad got in when they didn't have a 9-1 record like some other teams from other regions bc of their SOS numbers.

Wouldn't be the second time either!

Personally I think it's going to be the 4th time they'll be going in at 9-1, but that's just me!

[Frank Rossi]

Without looking too deeply, here's my thought on how tomorrow will look.  Note the major SOS difference between SLU/WNEU/Salve and Fisher/Hobart/Salisbury.  The RPI common result was close for both Hobart and SLU despite a W vs. a L.  It's razor thin between them.

1) Alfred
2) Stevenson
3) Fisher
4) Hobart
5) SLU
6) Salisbury
7) WNEU
8) Salve
9) Wesley
10) Frostburg

[Jonny Utah]

Without looking too deeply, here's my thought on how tomorrow will look.  Note the major SOS difference between SLU/WNEU/Salve and Fisher/Hobart/Salisbury.  The RPI common result was close for both Hobart and SLU despite a W vs. a L.  It's razor thin between them.

1) Alfred
2) Stevenson
3) Fisher
4) Hobart
5) SLU
6) Salisbury
7) WNEU
8) Salve
9) Wesley
10) Frostburg

Refresh my memory, but doesn't the NCAA love ranking undefeated New England teams higher than 1 loss NY/PA/MD/NJ teams in late season rankings?

[D3pc]

Without looking too deeply, here's my thought on how tomorrow will look.  Note the major SOS difference between SLU/WNEU/Salve and Fisher/Hobart/Salisbury.  The RPI common result was close for both Hobart and SLU despite a W vs. a L.  It's razor thin between them.

1) Alfred
2) Stevenson
3) Fisher
4) Hobart
5) SLU
6) Salisbury
7) WNEU
8) Salve
9) Wesley
10) Frostburg

I get the reasoning and I expect a very close game, but against 5 mutual opponents SLU is 5-0 and +92 against Hobart who is 4-1 and +30. Would be very surprised to see Hobart ahead of this week before the big matchup.

[Frank Rossi]

We're going to learn a decent amount as to how this East RAC will operate, and it might reflect National Committee instructions concerning the importance of SOS.  For instance, the difference between Hobart and SLU is 0.099 (0.571 vs. 0.472).  Historically we've been told that 0.100 differences (give or take) will be significant enough to overcome an extra loss by the team with stronger SOS.  However, the common opponents issue is usually not as prevalent in such comparisons.  Thankfully, we'll have a head-to-head result to go by in a few days.  They might choose to order the teams with SLU above Hobart just because of the impending result, but a different ordering should be looked at as a clue as to SOS importance. 

[wesleydad]

We're going to learn a decent amount as to how this East RAC will operate, and it might reflect National Committee instructions concerning the importance of SOS.  For instance, the difference between Hobart and SLU is 0.099 (0.571 vs. 0.472).  Historically we've been told that 0.100 differences (give or take) will be significant enough to overcome an extra loss by the team with stronger SOS.  However, the common opponents issue is usually not as prevalent in such comparisons.  Thankfully, we'll have a head-to-head result to go by in a few days.  They might choose to order the teams with SLU above Hobart just because of the impending result, but a different ordering should be looked at as a clue as to SOS importance.

If they play in the same league how are the SOS so far apart.  Sorry, I did not look at who they played OOC, but that seems huge.

[Jonny Utah]

We're going to learn a decent amount as to how this East RAC will operate, and it might reflect National Committee instructions concerning the importance of SOS.  For instance, the difference between Hobart and SLU is 0.099 (0.571 vs. 0.472).  Historically we've been told that 0.100 differences (give or take) will be significant enough to overcome an extra loss by the team with stronger SOS.  However, the common opponents issue is usually not as prevalent in such comparisons.  Thankfully, we'll have a head-to-head result to go by in a few days.  They might choose to order the teams with SLU above Hobart just because of the impending result, but a different ordering should be looked at as a clue as to SOS importance.

If they play in the same league how are the SOS so far apart.  Sorry, I did not look at who they played OOC, but that seems huge.

3 non league games makes the SOS look pretty reasonable.  Hobart playing Brockport and Ithaca while SLU played Norwich and Morrisville (they both played Endicott).

[ITH radio]

Two of SLU'S OCC are Mo State and Norwich. Cadets are 4-4 but Stangs are either 0-fer or 1-7 which hurts. HOB has benefit of beating Brockport and IC as well as WPI who has 5 wins also (Saints play Engineers in Wk 11 which will boost their SOS since WPI will probably be 6-3 going into that game).

[wesleydad]

We're going to learn a decent amount as to how this East RAC will operate, and it might reflect National Committee instructions concerning the importance of SOS.  For instance, the difference between Hobart and SLU is 0.099 (0.571 vs. 0.472).  Historically we've been told that 0.100 differences (give or take) will be significant enough to overcome an extra loss by the team with stronger SOS.  However, the common opponents issue is usually not as prevalent in such comparisons.  Thankfully, we'll have a head-to-head result to go by in a few days.  They might choose to order the teams with SLU above Hobart just because of the impending result, but a different ordering should be looked at as a clue as to SOS importance.

If they play in the same league how are the SOS so far apart.  Sorry, I did not look at who they played OOC, but that seems huge.

3 non league games makes the SOS look pretty reasonable.  Hobart playing Brockport and Ithaca while SLU played Norwich and Morrisville (they both played Endicott).

Thanks for the info.  Yes, MoVille is killing SLU.  Ithaca winning games surely helps Hobart.

[Frank Rossi]

SLU's SOS will improve probably to the 0.510 range soon, as they add Hobart (and Hobart's strong OWP into their OOWP) and WPI into their SOS over the next two weeks.  If Hobart beats SLU, this is crucial as being on the board first in the East as a Pool C candidate is likely the only way to have a serious chance to be selected.

[Bartman]

So ,are we saying if Hobart beats SLU(and beats Rochester ) that the Saints still have a decent chance for a Pool C if they beat WPI (SLU SOS improves dramatically) as a one loss team?
And it also seems obvious that if SLU beats Hobart and WPI(thus proving their virility)that they will get a winnable first round opponent and maybe two,  and Hobart can kiss their *** goodbye and get ready for next year? I personally think Hobart is a dangerous matchup for any of the Eastern teams , if they get that far.

[D3MAFAN]

I think Albright may sneak into the rankings. They have played two 1st place teams.

[Frank Rossi]

Bartman -

Here's my view of the world:

1) If SLU loses to Hobart and beats WPI, there is a risk that the NJAC runner-up will be ahead of them (especially if that team is one-loss Frostburg).  A lot of that will come down to SOS and Wesley's vs. Hobart's status in such a situation.  The risk is a real one, and again, if you're second on the board in the East for Pool C consideration -- and I would assume Wally would agree -- your chances for selection are virtually nil.

2) If SLU beats Hobart and WPI, it's crucial to try to be one of the top 8 teams in the Committee's view nationally.  The Committee will try to get the "1's" and the "2's" to opposite ends of quarter-brackets.  The likelihood is that Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and one other team will be #1 seeds.  The one other team issue is interesting.  Alfred and Stevenson are ahead of teams like St. Thomas in SOS figures, but the profile of teams other undefeateds have played will hurt the East teams' chances.  Either way, if SLU can get a #2 seed, they would able to have three rounds against teams that aren't #1 seeds.  A lot depends on where their SOS lands and if Hobart stays in the East Region poll.  Otherwise, a bunch of one-loss teams nationally would supplant them, forcing a rough Second Round match-up.  Long story short, SLU needs that SOS to increase and Hobart to stay ranked.  Even if Hobart stays ranked and somehow is the best Pool C candidate in the East with two losses, UW-Platteville sits there in the West as likely the only two-loss team worthy of legitimate consideration -- yes, Hobart can pack it in at two losses, I think.

[fisheralum91]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?