East Region Playoff Discussion

[Frank Rossi]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?

Unlikely with this number of one-loss teams and Platteville hanging around.  Utica would have to be ranked to give them a better chance.  It could change if one-loss candidates begin to drop games.

[Jonny Utah]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?

Unlikely with this number of one-loss teams and Platteville hanging around.  Utica would have to be ranked to give them a better chance.  It could change if one-loss candidates begin to drop games.

Frank when you say "ranked", are you talking about the second to last week NCAA region poll?  (Assuming they can't use the "final" rankings because those don't come out)

I guess what I'm asking is that when you use the criteria "wins vs. ranked opponents" what ranking from what dates do they use? 

[wally_wabash]

Bartman -

Here's my view of the world:

1) If SLU loses to Hobart and beats WPI, there is a risk that the NJAC runner-up will be ahead of them (especially if that team is one-loss Frostburg).  A lot of that will come down to SOS and Wesley's vs. Hobart's status in such a situation.  The risk is a real one, and again, if you're second on the board in the East for Pool C consideration -- and I would assume Wally would agree -- your chances for selection are virtually nil.

Yeah, co-sign on this.  If we're going to assume that the E8 runner up, whether it's Alfred or SJF, is going to be the highest ranked at-large team from this region, then I think it's difficult for the second highest ranked team to get in.  Without doing a super deep dive on Alfred's profile, my knee-jerk thought here is that the order of the Pool C's would go something like this:
1- Oshkosh
2- HSU/ETBU winner
3- Wheaton
4- St. John's

So that's four off and we haven't touched the East yet.  If CWRU gets to 10-0, they're going in somewhere early as well.  So we could have as many as five of the Pool C's gone before SJF or Alfred goes in.  Alfred might have a shot at going in before St. John's, actually.  Whatever the case, we're either out of Pool C's entirely at this point or St. Lawrence comes to the table in Round 5 (probably best case scenario) or Round 6.  And without an RRO win and kind of a meh SOS, I don't think they'd get selected.  Not impossible because they'd at least be in the discussion, but definitely not likely. 

[wally_wabash]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?

Unlikely with this number of one-loss teams and Platteville hanging around.  Utica would have to be ranked to give them a better chance.  It could change if one-loss candidates begin to drop games.

Frank when you say "ranked", are you talking about the second to last week NCAA region poll?  (Assuming they can't use the "final" rankings because those don't come out)

I guess what I'm asking is that when you use the criteria "wins vs. ranked opponents" what ranking from what dates do they use?

Ranked opponents are going to come from the double secret final rankings that don't get published.  We kind of have to guess at what those look like. 

[Jonny Utah]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?

Unlikely with this number of one-loss teams and Platteville hanging around.  Utica would have to be ranked to give them a better chance.  It could change if one-loss candidates begin to drop games.

Frank when you say "ranked", are you talking about the second to last week NCAA region poll?  (Assuming they can't use the "final" rankings because those don't come out)

I guess what I'm asking is that when you use the criteria "wins vs. ranked opponents" what ranking from what dates do they use?

Ranked opponents are going to come from the double secret final rankings that don't get published.  We kind of have to guess at what those look like.

You are kidding me?  I honestly didn't expect that as an answer.  That kind of clouds the entire process doesn't it in terms of "criteria"?

[wally_wabash]

Frank,
If Fisher goes 8-2 do they get the nod for pool c?

Unlikely with this number of one-loss teams and Platteville hanging around.  Utica would have to be ranked to give them a better chance.  It could change if one-loss candidates begin to drop games.

Frank when you say "ranked", are you talking about the second to last week NCAA region poll?  (Assuming they can't use the "final" rankings because those don't come out)

I guess what I'm asking is that when you use the criteria "wins vs. ranked opponents" what ranking from what dates do they use?

Ranked opponents are going to come from the double secret final rankings that don't get published.  We kind of have to guess at what those look like.

You are kidding me?  I honestly didn't expect that as an answer.  That kind of clouds the entire process doesn't it in terms of "criteria"?

Yes it does. 

[Bartman]

Bartman -

Here's my view of the world:

1) If SLU loses to Hobart and beats WPI, there is a risk that the NJAC runner-up will be ahead of them (especially if that team is one-loss Frostburg).  A lot of that will come down to SOS and Wesley's vs. Hobart's status in such a situation.  The risk is a real one, and again, if you're second on the board in the East for Pool C consideration -- and I would assume Wally would agree -- your chances for selection are virtually nil.

2) If SLU beats Hobart and WPI, it's crucial to try to be one of the top 8 teams in the Committee's view nationally.  The Committee will try to get the "1's" and the "2's" to opposite ends of quarter-brackets.  The likelihood is that Mount Union, UW-Whitewater, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and one other team will be #1 seeds.  The one other team issue is interesting.  Alfred and Stevenson are ahead of teams like St. Thomas in SOS figures, but the profile of teams other undefeateds have played will hurt the East teams' chances.  Either way, if SLU can get a #2 seed, they would able to have three rounds against teams that aren't #1 seeds.  A lot depends on where their SOS lands and if Hobart stays in the East Region poll.  Otherwise, a bunch of one-loss teams nationally would supplant them, forcing a rough Second Round match-up.  Long story short, SLU needs that SOS to increase and Hobart to stay ranked.  Even if Hobart stays ranked and somehow is the best Pool C candidate in the East with two losses, UW-Platteville sits there in the West as likely the only two-loss team worthy of legitimate consideration -- yes, Hobart can pack it in at two losses, I think.

Thanks Frank, +k for the analysis, now hoping your Statesmen pick over the Larries is right, if not ,I will root for the Larries as far as they can go

[ITH radio]

I did a deep dive into the stats for the HOB vs. SLU game on the gohobart.blogspot.com site. The numbers point to SLU but it's hard to say if it'll pan out that way given the Statesmen's long term dominance in this rivalry. Richardson is way more mobile than Lefflbine and the Hobart ILB's aren't as good as last season's group which guys like Gallagher could exploit. But, like Frank said on ITH, SLU hasn't played a passing offense like this one and last year's game was one were neither team really could run much so I think if it comes down to Sweeney having the ball in the 4th qtr, Hobart could stun the Saints yet again.

[res ipsa loquitur]

I did a deep dive into the stats for the HOB vs. SLU game on the gohobart.blogspot.com site. The numbers point to SLU but it's hard to say if it'll pan out that way given the Statesmen's long term dominance in this rivalry. Richardson is way more mobile than Lefflbine and the Hobart ILB's aren't as good as last season's group which guys like Gallagher could exploit. But, like Frank said on ITH, SLU hasn't played a passing offense like this one and last year's game was one were neither team really could run much so I think if it comes down to Sweeney having the ball in the 4th qtr, Hobart could stun the Saints yet again.

Top notch analysis.  I knew that SLU's defense was stout, but that is impressive.  Hobart clearly is coming in as at least a slight-to-moderate underdog, on the road.  But I have a sneaking suspicion that they are just due.  I know that wins are wins, and what matter most.  But they haven't really put together a complete game since Ithaca in September.  Lots of close games, some unnecessarily so.  If they play poorly, it could be a really long day.  But I think they may go get this one.

I am also very interested to see what goes on with Alfred this week.  How they do will dictate a lot about their playoff possibilities, and I think Utica is dangerous.  Two high quality wins in a row over (1) SJF and (2) a tougher-than-their-record Buff State team.  Good stuff on tap! 

[Bartman]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1
7   Albright   6-2   6-2
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1

[D3MAFAN]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1
7   Albright   6-2   6-2
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1

http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/football/d3/regional-rankings

http://www.d3football.com/playoffs/2016/first-regional-ranking

[boobyhasgameyo]

Spent the time typing it up and got the "new replies" since you posted notification seeing that Bartman beat me to the punch by seconds. 

I'm furious with Bartman.  Discuss...

[ITH radio]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1
7   Albright   6-2   6-2
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1

Frank was really close:

1) Alfred - check
2) Stevenson - check
3) Fisher - check (shows SOS and Olivet win weighing in)
4) Hobart - overestimated Hobart's SOS vs. a Salisbury / NJAC preference perhaps?)
5) SLU - check
6) Salisbury - flip with Bart
7) WNEU - overestimated a bit but they still made the board so check see below re Albright
8) Salve - miss
9) Wesley - check and pretty close to 8 so I'll give it to him
10) Frostburg - check

Damn - really nailed it save for Albright which is 0-2 vs RROs which seems like a bad pick IMO

[D3MAFAN]

I think Albright may sneak into the rankings. They have played two 1st place teams.

I had a gut feeling Albright was going to jump in there with two losses to both Stevenson and Salisbury.

[Bartman]

Spent the time typing it up and got the "new replies" since you posted notification seeing that Bartman beat me to the punch by seconds. 

I'm furious with Bartman.  Discuss...

Chill booby.....copy and paste is faster