East Region Playoff Discussion

[ITH radio]

Seems like a double counting to me on Albright. Glad to see WNEU on the board. Say what you want re NE teams but I think they deserve to be there. Kind of surprised Husson isn't but the ECFC SOS numbers kill them. I think they'll a tough out for someone in Rd 1.

[D3MAFAN]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

[AUKaz00]

Seems like a double counting to me on Albright. Glad to see WNEU on the board. Say what you want re NE teams but I think they deserve to be there. Kind of surprised Husson isn't but the ECFC SOS numbers kill them. I think they'll a tough out for someone in Rd 1.

For the same logic that Albright is in, Husson should be considered.

[Frank Rossi]

I think Albright may sneak into the rankings. They have played two 1st place teams.

I had a gut feeling Albright was going to jump in there with two losses to both Stevenson and Salisbury.

This always bothers me.  The SOS already takes into account that Albright played very good teams.  It's one thing if they beat one of them, and that's what RRO numbers intend to capture above and beyond SOS numbers.  And it sort of creates a circularity whereby Salisbury benefits in beating Albright to look better with only a moderate SOS figure.  If Albright remained unranked, then Salisbury likely belonged below SLU & Hobart.  Now, Wesley/Salisbury has a really big effect on these rankings more than I originally thought.

[wesleydad]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

Interested to see what people think about a Salisbury, Fisher and Hobart loss, does Albright jump all of them, or do they stay behind Salisbury due to the H2H result.  If it plays out that way is Salisbury the first team up if they beat Frostburg in the last week.  All of the teams will have 2 losses with Salisbury having a pretty strong SOS since they play both Wesley and Frostburg which will likely raise theirs above Fisher, Hobart, and Albright.  If that happens, the East could be in trouble, but Salisbury's resume would look pretty good, strong SOS and 2 - 1 record against RR teams.  Fun, Fun, Fun.

[boobyhasgameyo]

I haven't run the numbers but I don't think Salisbury is going to top Fisher in SOS, even after Hartwick and their abysmal record comes into the equation.  Finishing the season against currently undefeated Alfred is only going to provide a further boost. 

[wally_wabash]

I think Albright may sneak into the rankings. They have played two 1st place teams.

I had a gut feeling Albright was going to jump in there with two losses to both Stevenson and Salisbury.

This always bothers me.  The SOS already takes into account that Albright played very good teams.  It's one thing if they beat one of them, and that's what RRO numbers intend to capture above and beyond SOS numbers.  And it sort of creates a circularity whereby Salisbury benefits in beating Albright to look better with only a moderate SOS figure.  If Albright remained unranked, then Salisbury likely belonged below SLU & Hobart.  Now, Wesley/Salisbury has a really big effect on these rankings more than I originally thought.

Agree.  SOS and RESULTS (not just wins) against ranked opponents being separate criteria is double counting and creates a rich-get-richer scenario. 

[Jonny Utah]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

After what I'm learning today, Husson doesn't need to be ranked.  These rankings are just teams the NCAA needs to justify pool C rankings for results from the last two weeks. WNEC has to be ranked because if Salve beats them, Salve gets in anyway, if Salve loses, they weren't ranked anyway so the pool C is not in reach.  If Husson loses, it puts to bed any thought of them getting a pool C because they weren't ranked to begin with as well.  They have the pool A and that is it.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

After what I'm learning today, Husson doesn't need to be ranked.  These rankings are just teams the NCAA needs to justify pool C rankings for results from the last two weeks. WNEC has to be ranked because if Salve beats them, Salve gets in anyway, if Salve loses, they weren't ranked anyway so the pool C is not in reach.  If Husson loses, it puts to bed any thought of them getting a pool C because they weren't ranked to begin with as well.  They have the pool A and that is it.

Um, not really, but sort of.

You are correct that the RR's are essentially irrelevant for Husson.  They would not get a Pool C bid with a loss, and did not play any o butf the other top teams so there's not even a domino effect elsewhere.

Realistically, the East has at most two or three Pool C chances: the Alfred/St. John Fisher loser, the St. Larry/Hobart loser, and maybe someone from the NJAC triumvirate.  The next few weeks will have plenty of games that affect these rankings, but I honestly don't see any more than one Pool C team from the East.

[Frank Rossi]

There are only nine days left in the season as of the end of Thursday.

[D3MAFAN]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

After what I'm learning today, Husson doesn't need to be ranked.  These rankings are just teams the NCAA needs to justify pool C rankings for results from the last two weeks. WNEC has to be ranked because if Salve beats them, Salve gets in anyway, if Salve loses, they weren't ranked anyway so the pool C is not in reach.  If Husson loses, it puts to bed any thought of them getting a pool C because they weren't ranked to begin with as well.  They have the pool A and that is it.

Um, not really, but sort of.

You are correct that the RR's are essentially irrelevant for Husson.  They would not get a Pool C bid with a loss, and did not play any o butf the other top teams so there's not even a domino effect elsewhere.

Realistically, the East has at most two or three Pool C chances: the Alfred/St. John Fisher loser, the St. Larry/Hobart loser, and maybe someone from the NJAC triumvirate.  The next few weeks will have plenty of games that affect these rankings, but I honestly don't see any more than one Pool C team from the East.

ExTartan,

I agree with you wholly regarding Husson taking that second loss and being a "no shot" at Pool C. However, both Husson and Norwich have schedule outside of the NE and I think that is what it is going to take for the North Eastern teams to become better and hopefully get some recruits here and there to help get over the hump.

[Bartman]

I was interested in the performance of the major conferences in the East in the Playoffs by opponent final D3.com rankings...records last five years(**revised after I missed Salisbury as part of E8 in 2011 Playoffs):

            Conference                      MAC             LL            E8             NJAC         Wesley        All
                                                                                                                    (2011-14)
Top 10 Playoff Record(2011-15)      0 - 4            1- 5          1- 7            0-5            3-4          5- 25

Top 11-25                                     3 - 2            1-0           5- 0            1- 0          4-0           14-3

Got some poll votes                       0 - 0            2- 0          1- 0            1- 0          1- 0            4-0

Unranked(No votes)                       3- 0            1- 0          2- 0             3- 0          2- 0          11-0

Total                                             6- 6             5- 5          9- 7             5- 5          10-4        35-28

AVG Pts Loss  (Final Thumping)        35                25.6       18.8             26            -

I really did this to see how the conferences performed in the playoffs , plus I am feeling the LL gets downgraded a bit
and I wanted to see if the results warranted it. The E8 has the best record(only conference over .500) followed by the LL, MAC and NJAC. Now with Wesley in the NJAC(if Wesley performs at Historic levels) they should be the better performing conference.
Essentially, without Wesley, only Hobart and Salisbury had Playoff wins against a top 10 opponent(Bart beat John's Hopkins only #10 in final 2014 poll and Salisbury beat Kean, also #10 in 2011 ), but the region held serve pretty well below the top 10 over the last 5 years(MAC had two losses and NJAC one in the 11-25 opponent ranking). For teams that flowed from the E8 to the NJAC(Cortland , Salisbury) I counted their performance in the conference at the time.  For what it's worth.........

[sjfcards]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

After what I'm learning today, Husson doesn't need to be ranked.  These rankings are just teams the NCAA needs to justify pool C rankings for results from the last two weeks. WNEC has to be ranked because if Salve beats them, Salve gets in anyway, if Salve loses, they weren't ranked anyway so the pool C is not in reach.  If Husson loses, it puts to bed any thought of them getting a pool C because they weren't ranked to begin with as well.  They have the pool A and that is it.

Um, not really, but sort of.

You are correct that the RR's are essentially irrelevant for Husson.  They would not get a Pool C bid with a loss, and did not play any o butf the other top teams so there's not even a domino effect elsewhere.

Realistically, the East has at most two or three Pool C chances: the Alfred/St. John Fisher loser, the St. Larry/Hobart loser, and maybe someone from the NJAC triumvirate.  The next few weeks will have plenty of games that affect these rankings, but I honestly don't see any more than one Pool C team from the East.

You guys know way more about this than I do, so if Fisher loses to Alfred what are the realistic chances they get in? I have always sort of assumed the 2nd loss was a death blow to most teams, but I know Fisher has gotten in with 2 losses before. This year they get help from Olivet winning a bunch of games, but if they lose to Alfred, I feel like that loss to Utica would be too much to overcome. Maybe if AU beats Utica this weekend, and some of the other games work out in their favor...

[wally_wabash]

Here you go, East RR as of 11/2


1   Alfred   8-0   8-0 -  0-0 RRO
2   Stevenson   8-0   8-0  - 1-0 RRO
3   St. John Fisher   7-1   7-1  - 1-0 RRO
4   Salisbury   7-1   7-1 - 1-0 RRO
5   St. Lawrence   8-0   8-0 0-0 RRO
6   Hobart   7-1   7-1 - 0-0 RR0
7   Albright   6-2   6-2 - 0-2 RRO
8   Wesley   6-2   6-2 - 1-0 RRO
9   Western New England   8-0   8-0 - 0-0 RRO
10   Frostburg State   7-1   7-1 - 0-1 RRO

I agree Husson SOS really did them in, I think that their was some subjectivity when selecting that 10th place team. Without Frostburg in the ranking, Wesley would not benefited from their win over Frostburg. I have no problem with the current rankings, it does gives us an idea that the committee is looking at SOS.

After what I'm learning today, Husson doesn't need to be ranked.  These rankings are just teams the NCAA needs to justify pool C rankings for results from the last two weeks. WNEC has to be ranked because if Salve beats them, Salve gets in anyway, if Salve loses, they weren't ranked anyway so the pool C is not in reach.  If Husson loses, it puts to bed any thought of them getting a pool C because they weren't ranked to begin with as well.  They have the pool A and that is it.

Um, not really, but sort of.

You are correct that the RR's are essentially irrelevant for Husson.  They would not get a Pool C bid with a loss, and did not play any o butf the other top teams so there's not even a domino effect elsewhere.

Realistically, the East has at most two or three Pool C chances: the Alfred/St. John Fisher loser, the St. Larry/Hobart loser, and maybe someone from the NJAC triumvirate.  The next few weeks will have plenty of games that affect these rankings, but I honestly don't see any more than one Pool C team from the East.

You guys know way more about this than I do, so if Fisher loses to Alfred what are the realistic chances they get in? I have always sort of assumed the 2nd loss was a death blow to most teams, but I know Fisher has gotten in with 2 losses before. This year they get help from Olivet winning a bunch of games, but if they lose to Alfred, I feel like that loss to Utica would be too much to overcome. Maybe if AU beats Utica this weekend, and some of the other games work out in their favor...

It really depends entirely on what happens in the rest of the region and whether or not a team with two losses can have enough shine on their profile (high SOS, wins vs RROs) to be ranked highly- preferably the highest ranked at-large team in the region.  If SJF does lose to Alfred, you'll want to pay attention to where SJF is ranked which will give you a good idea if they can get in or not. 

And now I realize that we won't know for sure where SJF is ranked after the Alfred game because those rankings are classified.  My gut feeling here is that there are two things that would prevent SJF from being the top ranked at-large team in the East region:

St. Lawrence loses to Hobart

and

Alfred really, really hammers SJF.  Like in the 4+ score range. 

If those things don't happen, I think SJF is the highest rated at-large team in the East region and I think they'd go in.  I don't see how they could be passed over for 6 full rounds of selections with that SOS and (at least) one RRO win. 

[ITH radio]

That's what we in the East call a "monkeystomp"