East Region Playoff Discussion

[SJFF82]

MUC is the class of the nation...i think they will win handily...but not as easily as they have been accustomed to the past few weeks

Boxer...are you kiddin, or did you not realize that this poll was for last year's natinoal semi-final game that was played to a 26-14 conclusion already...

[labart96]

MUC is the class of the nation...i think they will win handily...but not as easily as they have been accustomed to the past few weeks

Boxer...are you kiddin, or did you not realize that this poll was for last year's natinoal semi-final game that was played to a 26-14 conclusion already...

zing!

[Boxer7806]

haha my bad

[Pat Coleman]

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.

[AUKaz00]

http://www.d3football.com/notables/2007/10/18/Strength+of+schedule

Strength of Schedule numbers are out.

Thanks Pat.  Aside from Mt. Union missing, there are also only 222 total schools listed.  It also appears that the SOS order is based on Opponent's winning percentage with Opponent's Opponent's winning percentage as a tie-breaker.  Is that how this statistic will be used for Pool C bids or will it be some average (perhaps weighted) of both OWP and OOWP?

[Pat Coleman]

"The number next to them is where they rank in opponents' winning percentage (though without ties). Provisional Division III teams and the NESCAC, which does not participate in the playoffs, are not listed."

[AUKaz00]

"The number next to them is where they rank in opponents' winning percentage (though without ties). Provisional Division III teams and the NESCAC, which does not participate in the playoffs, are not listed."

Okay, so the provisional and NESCAC teams were ranked just not listed.  Thanks for the clarification.  Now, will the OOWP only be used to break the OWP tie-breaker or will that be calculated in to the SOS figure?

[Ralph Turner]

AUKaz, the NESCAC is a closed system.  They play no games out of conference, and therefore they do not impact the OOWP or OWP.

Games versus third-year and fourth-year provisionals (of which I know none in the East Region this year) are also counted towards the championship.

[redswarm81]

Okay, so . . . will the OOWP only be used to break the OWP tie-breaker or will that be calculated in to the SOS figure?

I believe it was Frank Rossi who did yeoman research work on this topic.  It appears from the text of the Playoff Handbook that OOWP analysis is separate from OWP analysis, and further that OOWP will only be used to break ties in OWP, for teams that have similar records.  By that charter, I'll be surprised if OOWP is used at all in any selection analysis.

So hey, NCAA, thanks for mentioning the concept of Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage, at least it gives us a chance to shout out to PrestoSports, who provided the stats to D3football.com

[Frank Rossi]

Okay, so . . . will the OOWP only be used to break the OWP tie-breaker or will that be calculated in to the SOS figure?

I believe it was Frank Rossi who did yeoman research work on this topic.  It appears from the text of the Playoff Handbook that OOWP analysis is separate from OWP analysis, and further that OOWP will only be used to break ties in OWP, for teams that have similar records.  By that charter, I'll be surprised if OOWP is used at all in any selection analysis.

So hey, NCAA, thanks for mentioning the concept of Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage, at least it gives us a chance to shout out to PrestoSports, who provided the stats to D3football.com

PrestoSports in da hizzy!!

Just doesn't roll off the tongue like I thought it would...

[redswarm81]

PrestoSports in da hizzy!!

Just doesn't roll off the tongue like I thought it would...

I don't know Frank,  sometimes you just can't tell until you hear it broadcast and webcast over WRUC--give it a shot on Saturday.

[labart96]

Anyone want to take a crack at play-off prognostications?

Obviously with TCNJ and Widener clinching, we've got 2 of the 8 potential Eastern Regional spots filled.  Curry is likely to win the NEFC AQ as well leaving 5 more spots open.

My best guess is SJF wins the E8 with a victory over Alfred.  Wick finishes 8-2 with a win over Utica and a good looking Pool C case with victories over SJF and IC but man does that WNEC loss look bad.  The Cortaca winner has a good case for Pool C consideration, but not sure what the committee will think?

I think Hobart will beat Rochester and be in a position to take the AQ if Union beats RPI.  The Engineers have been struggling of late, and could be running out of gas.  If RPI wins and gets the AQ, I think even an 8-2 Hobart team getting the Pool C could be a stretch.  There are a lot of other in and outside the region teams with 1 or 2 loss records. 

[dewcrew88]

Anyone want to take a crack at play-off prognostications?

Obviously with TCNJ and Widener clinching, we've got 2 of the 8 potential Eastern Regional spots filled.  Curry is likely to win the NEFC AQ as well leaving 5 more spots open.

My best guess is SJF wins the E8 with a victory over Alfred.  Wick finishes 8-2 with a win over Utica and a good looking Pool C case with victories over SJF and IC but man does that WNEC loss look bad.  The Cortaca winner has a good case for Pool C consideration, but not sure what the committee will think?

I think Hobart will beat Rochester and be in a position to take the AQ if Union beats RPI.  The Engineers have been struggling of late, and could be running out of gas.  If RPI wins and gets the AQ, I think even an 8-2 Hobart team getting the Pool C could be a stretch.  There are a lot of other in and outside the region teams with 1 or 2 loss records. 

Color me as someone who thinks Rochester could win the AQ. If they beat Hobart, which will be difficult, but not impossible, and RPI beats Union on the road, also difficult but not impossible, the Yellowjackets could "bee" the LL rep in the NCAAs.

[FisherAlum05]

Anyone want to take a crack at play-off prognostications?

Obviously with TCNJ and Widener clinching, we've got 2 of the 8 potential Eastern Regional spots filled.  Curry is likely to win the NEFC AQ as well leaving 5 more spots open.

My best guess is SJF wins the E8 with a victory over Alfred.  Wick finishes 8-2 with a win over Utica and a good looking Pool C case with victories over SJF and IC but man does that WNEC loss look bad.  The Cortaca winner has a good case for Pool C consideration, but not sure what the committee will think?

I think Hobart will beat Rochester and be in a position to take the AQ if Union beats RPI.  The Engineers have been struggling of late, and could be running out of gas.  If RPI wins and gets the AQ, I think even an 8-2 Hobart team getting the Pool C could be a stretch.  There are a lot of other in and outside the region teams with 1 or 2 loss records. 

TGP,

If SJF wins, and Wick wins then Wick gets the AQ!  Fisher will be a lock for a pool C.  If RPI takes the AQ, I still think Hobart is in at 8-2.

[labart96]

Wow.  Didn't realize that about the Wick.  They should have no trouble with Utica.