East Region Playoff Discussion

[theoriginalupstate]

East Region Projection:

1) Muhlenburgh
2) Cortland
3) RPI
4) Ithaca
5) MAC Rep
6) Rowan
7) Salisbury
8.) Plymouth St

I would list 6 as winner Rowan/Montclair.  I think whoever wins next week is in good shape for a C bid.

Yes that is true...

The only conference to get a pool C this year is the NJAC...

[rams1102]

East Region Projection:

1) Muhlenburgh
2) Cortland
3) RPI
4) Ithaca
5) MAC Rep
6) Rowan
7) Salisbury
8.) Plymouth St

I would list 6 as winner Rowan/Montclair.  I think whoever wins next week is in good shape for a C bid.

Yes that is true...

The only conference to get a pool C this year is the NJAC...

I think you are wrong with Rowan. If Cortland wins out they deserve to be the #1 seed, IMHO. A lot can happen in (2) weeks.

[theoriginalupstate]

if its rowan or montclair its pretty much a lock that the east is only getting one pool C this year and two teams are going to be imported in...

[Jonny Utah]

East Region Projection:

1) Muhlenburgh
2) Cortland
3) RPI
4) Ithaca
5) MAC Rep
6) Rowan
7) Salisbury
8.) Plymouth St

By having Cortland over Ithaca means you have Cortland beating Ithaca.  If thats the case I might see Ithaca being the 6 or 7 then or at least behind the MAC rep.

[superman57]

I still see a situation, where either Fisher/Wick/alfred (though unlikely, the fighting freds get both wins... get the pool over rowan/montclair...

and how bout this situation... the Freds beat the bombers and then Fisher beats the freds... yes wick get's the aq, but I could see in this scenerio if Ithaca beats cortland than Fisher could get a pool c as they will be a 1 loss in-region team

[theoriginalupstate]

I still see a situation, where either Fisher/Wick/alfred (though unlikely, the fighting freds get both wins... get the pool over rowan/montclair...

and how bout this situation... the Freds beat the bombers and then Fisher beats the freds... yes wick get's the aq, but I could see in this scenerio if Ithaca beats cortland than Fisher could get a pool c as they will be a 1 loss in-region team

If SJF gets in this year, pool A or C, i'll leave the boards forever...

[Ralph Turner]

We, in the South, are keeping Muhlenberg as a #1 or #2 seed and sending Thomas More, Pool A bid from the Presidents AC, to the "North" Region.


Please start at Post #1798.

[superman57]

I still see a situation, where either Fisher/Wick/alfred (though unlikely, the fighting freds get both wins... get the pool over rowan/montclair...

and how bout this situation... the Freds beat the bombers and then Fisher beats the freds... yes wick get's the aq, but I could see in this scenerio if Ithaca beats cortland than Fisher could get a pool c as they will be a 1 loss in-region team

If SJF gets in this year, pool A or C, i'll leave the boards forever...

I understand that you are upset at the coaching staff and the way the team has been playing... but they are still 6-3 (5-1 in region)  this has been a decent year... and when you have a wick defense that likes to let the other team score sometimes... we can still make it

[Bombers798891]

I still see a situation, where either Fisher/Wick/alfred (though unlikely, the fighting freds get both wins... get the pool over rowan/montclair...

and how bout this situation... the Freds beat the bombers and then Fisher beats the freds... yes wick get's the aq, but I could see in this scenerio if Ithaca beats cortland than Fisher could get a pool c as they will be a 1 loss in-region team

If SJF gets in this year, pool A or C, i'll leave the boards forever...

I understand that you are upset at the coaching staff and the way the team has been playing... but they are still 6-3 (5-1 in region)  this has been a decent year... and when you have a wick defense that likes to let the other team score sometimes... we can still make it

Yes, they're 6-1 in region...but only one of those wins was a good win. The other five wins came against:

Buffalo State: 0-8
Rochester: 2-6
Utica: 2-6
Norwich: 2-6
Springfield 2-6

Total: 8-32

That's not exactly an impressive resume to submit. Five wins over cruddy teams and a 1-3 record against teams with a pulse...

[theoriginalupstate]

We, in the South, are keeping Muhlenberg as a #1 or #2 seed and sending Thomas More, Pool A bid from the Presidents AC, to the "North" Region.


Please start at Post #1798.

Fine be that way, we didnt want the Mules in the East anyways...

The east is going to need 2 teams imported though, only the NJAC is getting a pool C this year...

[Bombers798891]

We, in the South, are keeping Muhlenberg as a #1 or #2 seed and sending Thomas More, Pool A bid from the Presidents AC, to the "North" Region.


Please start at Post #1798.

Fine be that way, we didnt want the Mules in the East anyways...

The east is going to need 2 teams imported though, only the NJAC is getting a pool C this year...

What if IC loses to Alfred and beats Cortland State? IC would be 8-2, and have wins over--records are educated guesses based on upcoming opponents: 9-1 Cortland--, 8-1 Hartwick and what could be 8-2 Lycoming. That would be THREE wins over Conference champions, two of which were their only losses. Yes, there are a lot of unbeaten/1 loss teams, but that's a pretty nice resume for a 2-loss team

[redswarm81]

East Region Projection:

1) Muhlenburgh
2) Cortland
3) RPI
4) Ithaca
5) MAC Rep
6) Rowan
7) Salisbury
8.) Plymouth St

I would list 6 as winner Rowan/Montclair.  I think whoever wins next week is in good shape for a C bid.

Looking at the regional rankings, I think that the Rowan-Montclair St. winner is the only "safe" Pool C bid in the East.  A one-loss Rowan or Montclair St. would properly be seeded above the MAC Pool A.  Salisbury would be a South Region import, but I think they have a tough time securing a Pool B bid, after losing to Wesley.

One of the toughest things about predicting Pool B and Pool C is that I think they're selected against all national Pool B and Pool C candidates, they're not necessarily restricted by Region--although as a practical matter, the NCAA isn't going to pick some boondocks Pool B or Pool C team if it requires paying for one or more team flights.

Here's the analysis I did last night:  assume that the top-ranked team from each Pool A conference wins out, and higher ranked teams beat lower ranked teams in showdowns.  Here's how I think it plays out among the East ranked teams:

EAST REGION
1. Cortland State  10-0 10-0  NJAC  Pool A
2. RPI                  9-0  9-0    LL     Pool A
3. Ithaca             7-2 8-2      E8     Pool A
4. Montclair State  9-1 9-1    NJAC  Pool C
5. Rowan             8-2 8-2     NJAC  Pool C
6. Hartwick          8-1 8-1     E8      Pool C
7. Worcester Poly  8-2 8-2     LL     Pool C
8. Hobart            7-2 7-2       LL     Pool C
9. Plymouth State 8-1 10-1   NEFC  Pool A
10. Husson          7-0 7-2              Pool B

Teams whose projected records include a loss since Wednesday's Rankings listed in italics
MAC Conference Pool A is not ranked.

In this scenario, Ithaca and Rowan probably drop down and WPI and Hobart maybe drop out, but who could take their places?  If we borrow the likeliest candidates from the East Region Fan Poll, we get

St. John Fisher     7-1 7-3       E8      Pool C

and then it gets tricky.  The East Region Fan Poll voters like Lycoming, a MAC Pool A candidate.  But there's still Albright, who has the same conference record as Lyco, but has a head-to-head loss to Lycoming, so Lyco wins Pool A if it wins out, and if Albright also wins out, the MAC looks like this:

Lycoming           7-2 8-2      MAC   Pool A
Albright            8-2 8-2       MAC  Pool C

Also lurking would be

Curry               9-1  9-1     NEFC   Pool C

In this exercise, Rowan would be 0-2 v. ranked opponents, Curry 0-1, and Albright and Lyco 0-0 v. ranked opponents.  I figure it'd be a battle of Rowan's OWP/OOWP v. Curry's winning percentage, for the final ranked spot.

In either case, the MAC makes for 5 Pool A spots in the East Region.  Only three remain available to Husson and the Pool C candidates--two, if a team is moved into the East, as we know is quite possible.

Thus, Rowan and Montclair St. play next week for the only "safe" Pool C bid in the East.  Hartwick obviously stays way ahead of Fisher if they win out, but 'Wick would still have to be considered on the bubble.

RPI v. Hobart next Saturday might be for the Liberty League's only NCAA playoff representative.  If RPI wins, I don't see a 7-2 Hobart getting a Pool C bid.  If Hobart wins, RPI will be trapped in the same bubble as Hartwick.

[theoriginalupstate]

East Region Playoff Prediction 2.0:

This scenario will probably be the best case scenario for the east...

1-Muhlenburgh (10-0)
2-RPI (9-0)
3-Ithaca (9-1)
4-Cortland (9-1)
5-Lycoming (8-2)
6-Rowan/Montclair winner (9-1)
7-Plymouth St (9-1)
8-Hartwick (8-1)

[lewdogg11]

East Region Playoff Prediction 2.0:

This scenario will probably be the best case scenario for the east...

1-Muhlenburgh (10-0)
2-RPI (9-0)
3-Ithaca (9-1)
4-Cortland (9-1)
5-Lycoming (8-2)
6-Rowan/Montclair winner (9-1)
7-Plymouth St (9-1)
8-Hartwick (8-1)

I think that would be spectacular.

[fisheralum91]

upstate- you think that cortaca goes to Cstate?
hmm.
dunno about that one