East Region Playoff Discussion

[theoriginalupstate]

Im not saying they go out of their way to "screw" the east bringing a better team in im saying make the brackets even in terms of strength.  It doesnt make sense to have 3/4 undefeated teams in one region only to have another region have their top 3 seeds possess 2 losses (combined)...

[stimulator]

Frank as usual stellar work..

thought it might be interesting .... not necessarily a "criteria" but something that is worth considering.  I certainly as a member of the selection committee care about OWP and OOWP but it seems to me that some consideration should be given to how close you actually came to winning your own conference i.e. did you come close or were you never in the game to grab that AQ.

Following are number of points the Pool C candidates in your analysis lost to the eventual conference champ and Pool A qualifier.  Assuming some of the scenarios for next weeks games hold true.  Your selections in bold

UWW 1
Hardin Simmons 2
Montclair 6
Hampden-Sydney 12
Otterbien 29
Ithaca 31
RPI 3
Wash & Jeff 6
Redlands 13
Wooster 21

Certainly their has to be some subjectivity in looking at some of the results.  How strong was that AQ team etc.  But losing to the eventual champ by double digits, 20 or even 30 has to be considered.

[dewcrew88]

Im not saying they go out of their way to "screw" the east bringing a better team in im saying make the brackets even in terms of strength.  It doesnt make sense to have 3/4 undefeated teams in one region only to have another region have their top 3 seeds possess 2 losses (combined)...

No, they didn't go out of their way to do it. It just happened that way. If the NCAA is going to move a team, why not switch a team that would be a lower seed? Seems more fair. Of course, we wouldn't be having this discussion if we weren't afraid that MUC will steamroll the East. If they were normal (you MUC guys who read this know I mean this in the nicest possible way   )  this wouldn't be an issue.

[rams1102]

I've been reading all this playoff stuff and it makes me crazy. It's like trying to understand our government. I've listened to the Pod Cast and tried to do my due diligence. Some of you guys are amazing with your ability to understand this process. In any event I am a Montclair homer, so here goes. Montclair, Cortland, Fisher, RPI, Hobart, Albright and Plymouth win. The Cortland Bracket looks as follow :

1. Cortland
2. Muhlenberg
3. Montclair "C"
4. Hobart
5. Albright
6. Fisher
7. Ithaca "C"
8.Plymouth

A Cortland - Montclair East Final with Montclair going to the final 4. I told  everyone I was a homer. Let's see how this all plays out.

The season so far has been a lot of fun and thanks to D3football.com.

[Frank Rossi]

Frank as usual stellar work..

thought it might be interesting .... not necessarily a "criteria" but something that is worth considering.  I certainly as a member of the selection committee care about OWP and OOWP but it seems to me that some consideration should be given to how close you actually came to winning your own conference i.e. did you come close or were you never in the game to grab that AQ.

Following are number of points the Pool C candidates in your analysis lost to the eventual conference champ and Pool A qualifier.  Assuming some of the scenarios for next weeks games hold true.  Your selections in bold

UWW 1
Hardin Simmons 2
Montclair 6
Hampden-Sydney 12
Otterbien 29
Ithaca 31
RPI 3
Wash & Jeff 6
Redlands 13
Wooster 21

Certainly their has to be some subjectivity in looking at some of the results.  How strong was that AQ team etc.  But losing to the eventual champ by double digits, 20 or even 30 has to be considered.

Here's the big issue, Stim, that I think you need to factor in before scores become an issue (and from my discussion with Mr. Kaiser, scores COULD become an issue in some cases).  The bigger issue is "Quality Wins" for these teams.  Let's look at the present Top 6 Pool C contenders:

UWW -- Wins vs. other UW schools are considered pretty big as the Wisc. Conference has been acclaimed for years.

Hardin-Simmons - Win vs. Linfield and a lower level UW school are probably a decent resume builder

Montclair - Wins vs. Rowan, New Jersey and potentially Kean are seen as strong

Hampden-Sydney - Win at Huntingdon last week is an important win against a then-undefeated team that deep into the season

Otterbien - Wins vs. Capital and potentially John Carroll are seen as strong since they are Pool C contenders normally underneath MUC

Ithaca - Wins vs. Lycoming, Alfred, Hartwick and potentially Cortland are all very big resume boosters.

Once we break from these six, I cannot identify a game played by any of the Pool C contenders that becomes a "breakout performance" in order to separate teams from the pack.  This is where I think score comparisons might play a roll and could benefit RPI to a degree.  

Some people feel Wooster should go before RPI because of the OWP difference.  I'm making a big argument in the other direction -- you need to look at the OWP of the TEAMS THAT WERE BEATEN for RPI and Wooster in order to gain some true ideas about their strength.  The fact that Wooster did not come within less than 20 of either loss to an undefeated team should make those games count to some degree -- and should deflate their OWP.  Once you deflate Wooster's OWP, their OOWP is below RPI's and no quality wins really exist for either.  At that point, you need to look at scores and not ignore the fact that Wooster has two losses.  

That's in part why I feel that RPI is the 7th team in Pool C right now.

[labart96]

frank -

stellar work on the playoff scenarios.

check out the Daily Dose - a Case fan is mentioning ITH!

[stimulator]

As I said on the LLPP if RPI does not make it, another deserving team will get in.. no arguments.  When you get to picking the last 6 someone will get left out that is deserving.. no make that a number of teams. So it is what it is.

But here's my thinking:  If the NCAA awards an AQ bid to a conference and it's eventual champion, the second place team in that conference, especially if they lost their only game to the conference champ is worthy of strong consideration.  That's what the Pool C (with the inclusion of the Independents not earning a Pool B) is for.

Seems to me the way you lost to that CC is important.  Lose by a few you are looked at more favorably.. by 20 maybe not as much.  Not scientific I know.  i.e. Otterbein loses to MUC by 20+ well let's take a look at the quality of the CC ... so they get a bit of a pass.  The Wisconsin teams same thing.  Bridgewater loses to PS not as much consideration (if that was their only loss).

However Ithaca loses by 31 to the CC in the E8 (and a team with 3 losses and an additional conference loss.. I know they were quality OOC opponents) ...well to me that means something.   

No secret I am an RPI supporter and I do wish they had a quality win to speak of.  But they handled the games on the schedule (although Utica was ugly even with a 14 point win) and their loss was a 38 yarder as the game clock expired. 

I know the formulas and calculations will be cranking come selection time. If Ithaca  gets in with a win over Cortland maybe I can live with it.  Late season win quality opponent.

[labart96]

As I said on the LLPP if RPI does not make it, another deserving team will get in.. no arguments.  When you get to picking the last 6 someone will get left out that is deserving.. no make that a number of teams. So it is what it is.

But here’s my thinking:  If the NCAA awards an AQ bid to a conference and it’s eventual champion, the second place team in that conference, especially if they lost their only game to the conference champ is worthy of strong consideration.  That’s what the Pool C (with the inclusion of the Independents not earning a Pool B) is for.

Seems to me the way you lost to that CC is important.  Lose by a few you are looked at more favorably.. by 20 maybe not as much.  Not scientific I know.  i.e. Otterbein loses to MUC by 20+ well let’s take a look at the quality of the CC … so they get a bit of a pass.  The Wisconsin teams same thing.  Bridgewater loses to PS not as much consideration (if that was their only loss).

However Ithaca loses by 31 to the CC in the E8 (and a team with 3 losses and an additional conference loss.. I know they were quality OOC opponents) …well to me that means something.   

No secret I am an RPI supporter and I do wish they had a quality win to speak of.  But they handled the games on the schedule (although Utica was ugly even with a 14 point win) and their loss was a 38 yarder as the game clock expired. 

I know the formulas and calculations will be cranking come selection time. If Ithaca  gets in with a win over Cortland maybe I can live with it.  Late season win quality opponent.

Even if TGP is voted the "Frank Rossi of Hobart", TGP has little or no understanding of how these play-offs work other than the Pool A.

TGP actually thought RPI had a great shot being that they only dropped to #5 in the NCAA East Region rankings.

TGP guesses we'll have to see how it pans out this weekend.......?

[Jonny Utah]

I know its two different years but if Ithaca got a pool C last year with two losses, there is a 100% chance they will get it this year with one loss.

[redswarm81]

I've been reading all this playoff stuff and it makes me crazy. It's like trying to understand our government. I've listened to the Pod Cast and tried to do my due diligence. Some of you guys are amazing with your ability to understand this process. In any event I am a Montclair homer, so here goes. Montclair, Cortland, Fisher, RPI, Hobart, Albright and Plymouth win. The Cortland Bracket looks as follow :

1. Cortland
2. Muhlenberg
3. Montclair "C"
4. Hobart
5. Albright
6. Fisher
7. Ithaca "C"
8.Plymouth

A Cortland - Montclair East Final with Montclair going to the final 4. I told  everyone I was a homer. Let's see how this all plays out.

The season so far has been a lot of fun and thanks to D3football.com.

If Muhlenberg is 10-0, I don't see them moving to the East as a no. 2 seed.  I mean, they could stay in the South and be a no. 2 seed.  I think Wesley is a likelier candidate to move in to the East Region as a no. 6 or 7 or so.

[Frank Rossi]

As I said on the LLPP if RPI does not make it, another deserving team will get in.. no arguments.  When you get to picking the last 6 someone will get left out that is deserving.. no make that a number of teams. So it is what it is.

But here's my thinking:  If the NCAA awards an AQ bid to a conference and it's eventual champion, the second place team in that conference, especially if they lost their only game to the conference champ is worthy of strong consideration.  That's what the Pool C (with the inclusion of the Independents not earning a Pool B) is for.

Seems to me the way you lost to that CC is important.  Lose by a few you are looked at more favorably.. by 20 maybe not as much.  Not scientific I know.  i.e. Otterbein loses to MUC by 20+ well let's take a look at the quality of the CC ... so they get a bit of a pass.  The Wisconsin teams same thing.  Bridgewater loses to PS not as much consideration (if that was their only loss).

However Ithaca loses by 31 to the CC in the E8 (and a team with 3 losses and an additional conference loss.. I know they were quality OOC opponents) ...well to me that means something.   

No secret I am an RPI supporter and I do wish they had a quality win to speak of.  But they handled the games on the schedule (although Utica was ugly even with a 14 point win) and their loss was a 38 yarder as the game clock expired. 

I know the formulas and calculations will be cranking come selection time. If Ithaca  gets in with a win over Cortland maybe I can live with it.  Late season win quality opponent.

Let me state this, though, Stim:

If Utica on your schedule was instead Hartwick... or if Endicott on your schedule was instead Plymouth St. or Curry... We wouldn't be having nearly as much argument to try to convince people that RPI should be in as a Pool C.  Either they might be ahead of Monclair at this point (which would be important to avoid the "freeze out" that's happening right now to RPI) or they would be assured the final Pool C slot with only one of the eight scenarios I posed happening.  A subtle change in scheduling could go a long way down the road to help RPI build up a much better insurance policy.  Right now, Wooster fans think a two-loss Wooster has a shot over a one-loss RPI team.  I'm trying to beat them back, but such an argument shouldn't even be capable of happening.

[redswarm81]

East Regional Rankings, Nov. 5:

1. Cortland St    8-0 8-0
2. RPI               7-0 7-0
3. Ithaca          6-1 7-1
4. Montclair St   7-1 7-1
5. Rowan          7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick       6-1 6-1
7. Hobart          6-1 6-1
8. Plymouth St   7-1 8-1
9. Husson         6-0 6-2
10. Curry          7-1 8-1

East Regional Rankings, Nov. 12:

1. Cortland St    9-0 9-0
2. Ithaca          7-1 8-1
3. Montclair St   8-1 8-1
4. Hobart          7-1 7-1
5. RPI               7-1 7-1
6. Hartwick        6-2 6-2
7. Plymouth St    8-1 9-1
8. Rowan           7-2 7-2
9. Curry             8-1 9-1
10. Albright        6-2 7-2
11. Husson        7-0 7-2

I don't understand how Husson won, and yet was passed by Curry and two-loss Albright.  My inner cynic figures that the NCAA committee was using the incorrect 6-1 in-Region record for Albright that they included in their announcement of the rankings.

RPI lost to a ranked team, and they dropped 3 spots.  Rowan lost  a ranked team, and Rowan dropped 3 spots.  Hartwick lost to 3-6 Springfield, but 'Wick stays put at no. 6? 

[stimulator]

Frank:

No argument here..  the SOS argument has some real teeth as to RPI's dilemma. 

This is where I agree with the premise of playing one of the OOC games against a tougher opponent.  I don't agree as much with the "battle tested" argument.  I don't think playing MUC has had any real benefit to SJF this year.  In fact you could argue there are some real negatives to playing the iron early in the season.

But you are right the argument might be more in RPI's favor with a more substantial win than Endicott or to a lesser degree Utica. 

I think RPI had some hopes that they would be playing that upper level NEFC team (ala Curry/ PS) when they continued to schedule Endicott.  I know some folks there as well as some Sr. players.  They had much higher expectations 3-4 years ago that the program would be battling for a NEFC championship game as the program progressed.. certainly that has not happened.  Not sure why.  They have a great campus.. decent facilities and a nice recruiting area to work with.  They do lose some good local kids to the EMass D2 schools but they should be better.

I hope the advent of the new stadium may bring a scheduling shift to one of these early games. Perhaps a mid tier NJAC or MAC team.  Even a Springfield would be nice.

[union89]

Frank:

No argument here..  the SOS argument has some real teeth as to RPI's dilemma. 

This is where I agree with the premise of playing one of the OOC games against a tougher opponent.  I don't agree as much with the "battle tested" argument.  I don't think playing MUC has had any real benefit to SJF this year.  In fact you could argue there are some real negatives to playing the iron early in the season.

But you are right the argument might be more in RPI's favor with a more substantial win than Endicott or to a lesser degree Utica. 

I think RPI had some hopes that they would be playing that upper level NEFC team (ala Curry/ PS) when they continued to schedule Endicott.  I know some folks there as well as some Sr. players.  They had much higher expectations 3-4 years ago that the program would be battling for a NEFC championship game as the program progressed.. certainly that has not happened.  Not sure why.  They have a great campus.. decent facilities and a nice recruiting area to work with.  They do lose some good local kids to the EMass D2 schools but they should be better.

I hope the advent of the new stadium may bring a scheduling shift to one of these early games. Perhaps a mid tier NJAC or MAC team.  Even a Springfield would be nice.

As Reno has stated previously, Springfield is a nightmare to add to your schedule.  The prep to play that offense sets your defense back considerably.

[SJFF82]

  I don't agree as much with the "battle tested" argument.  I don't think playing MUC has had any real benefit to SJF this year. 

I dont know...the game was certainly long ago and far away and they did get smoked, but now because of 'Wick's recent loss and SJF's new life, I think that game can be reflected upon as a psychological tool....a way to reflect that the season has come a long way form playing the Machine that is MUC in the summer, September, to now in November, last game, playing AU for a bid.  The coaches and players have likely been focusing on that theme for the past week and during the bye week.  Arguably, SJF has played 5 play-off caliber teams this year, spread out through the season, so this is just the 'book-end' play-off game that started with MUC.